Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[bones] 14/2/2024 13:23

700k at 8.3p was a buy I think. MM's shifted off 8.3p offer at that time and previous sells of 250k were at 8.0p. No way 700k could have been sold for 8.3p right then.

Pipe seems to be unblocked temporarily. Whether the seller is finished is another question entirely.

[bagpuss67] 14/2/2024 12:52

Are we about to clear the seller? Big trades but share price stable..

[amanitaangelicus] 14/2/2024 10:53

Good post Fever. Thnx.

[fevertreeman] 14/2/2024 10:13

Very good debate here about SCE. Observations from Quazie12 & Fillspectre are spot on.

Who knows what happened between 'Holly' Johnson & Cunningham, but it's clear the finance function was in a complete basket case. Maddocks was persuaded to jump ship by her former boss who was doing consulting work for SCE. Whether she was fully aware of the mess, no one knows, but hard to escape the impression that Johnson's management style is a central part of the problem here. Both he and Blustering Bundred aptly illustrate the problems of group think & the bunker mentality that seems to be rife in Knowsley. And clearly the combination of Holly's intellectual arrogance, reluctance to really take on board criticism /advice, antipathy to City investors, poor communications, & lack of operational grip has really taken its toll on investors' confidence. Add Blustering Bundred into the mix with his arrogance & know-it-all bluster & the result has been a perfect storm.

The next 2 quarters will demonstrate whether Holly is truly onboard with the new triumvirate structure (Easton & Maddocks) or is still trying to call all the shots. If Easton or Maddocks walks out, then we know the answer. One of the most depressing elements here is Johnson & Bundred's point blank refusal to accept they have made mistakes. Instead we had Holly blaming the customers, saying we were boxed in etc, as if it was nothing to do with him.

[quemaster] 14/2/2024 10:09

The Youtube video I posted yesterday Highlighted the vulnerability of of the £20m capacity with many parts of the production line having only one machine, the expansion to £50m seemed to be generally a case of doubling up at each point in the line so by mid year we should be in a much more resilient position. How far this has progressed by the time of the April update and how much better they now understand the limits of the equipment is the immediate question.

[quemaster] 14/2/2024 09:36

Good to see you post again fillspectre.

[jerarnie1] 14/2/2024 09:35

Just checking the graphics on my screen, it's been blue for over an hour :-)

[amanitaangelicus] 14/2/2024 08:42

SP up on 700 vol. MMs desperate to offload . Wait.

[fft] 14/2/2024 00:53

Bones,The main priority is production. IMHO cash is a bit of a side show. If the production doesn't get anywhere near the targets for this year, it will be as good as impossible to raise any meaningful money and the company will be up for sale. Conversely, if production does meet (or is close to targets), then, assuming they have overspent, raising cash will probably not be difficult as confidence over future targets will be high and investors will see the promised uplands.Indeed, if production this year is close to targets - which would indicate installation/startup problems have been largely fixed - I would not be surprised if next year an acceleration - funded by debt and equity - is announced to build a factory wherever Tesla/GM want it.

[bones] 13/2/2024 21:36

My point is that any solid indication of operational improvement, getting towards capacity, improving output, etc, will be a huge fillip to sentiment and, with such negativity reflected in the share price, the effect should be material.

A bottom is evidenced by investors who can’t see beyond their despair :)

But the improvement has got to happen first. I’ve given reasons why it is possible.

[fillspectre] 13/2/2024 21:15

I used to be a regular poster on this bulletin board. I still read it. I atill have a significant holding in ST. By the single measure of the share price performance the last six months has been disastrous. I want to remain positive but appreciate reading the negative posts. I suppose one positive from the negatives - there seems plenty of new people interested - but understandable people circling to see what develops next. When Michael Cunningham's notice was announced it had me puzzled. I do question the personnel dynamics at the top of the Company. I just hope the strategic investors, the share price itself and perhaps the flood of criticism on this board are making all of the ST team totally determined and focussed to get production figures out in April that improve on Q4s. Fils

[quazie12] 13/2/2024 20:09

I think the issue is Johnston runs the show, his way or the highway and the previous FD is simply a scapegoat for his failures. Time will tell whether he has screwed the new FD as well, I suppose he did already with that emergency raise

[quazie12] 13/2/2024 20:04

Well when the could have bought they bloody didn't

[fevertreeman] 13/2/2024 19:22

And do you believe that Johnson whose energy levels and enthusiasm resemble a spent AAA battery is the man to take this to the sunny uplands? The biggest 'single point of failure' in this company isn't the equipment it's the trio responsible for the current mess - Bundred, Johnson, & the former FD Cunningham.

[amt] 13/2/2024 18:20

The trouble is the share price in the last couple of days tells a story

[bones] 13/2/2024 18:08

It’s easy to become despondent and this thread has become a Slough of Despond!

Nobody apparently believes a light will appear in the future.

For me, the first report that states that the production issues are properly ironing out and production and sales rates increasing markedly will be a potential eureka moment for the share price (from its extreme level of despair).

That needs to be coupled with confirmation that cash balances are being controlled. In that regard, the cash burn in late 2023 should not be repeated in early 2024 since there is now a capex loan to draw on for that part of the business outgoings. In 2023, the bulk of cash burn was on capital expense.

Despite the morass we find our investment in, I remain confident there is an upland somewhere ahead.

[amt] 13/2/2024 17:23

Trouble is Bones is that its conceivable things get much worse and our shares are as good as worthless. That's not going to happen with Bango, hence its a much better bet.

[bones] 13/2/2024 17:19

Indeed, SCE is a sore point for my portfolio too. Only the recent new placing investors are becalmed, albeit already nearly 20% off themselves! I suppose it’s possible the current seller is one or more of those placees operating a stop loss or changing strategy? We will never know.

[amt] 13/2/2024 17:13

Correct Bones, yes I have been a huge fan of Bango for years and I stick by my belief they were very cheap at double the existing price, hence my belief they are ludicrously undervalued now. Yes it will be interesting to see what happens in a year or so.
I have a huge loss with SCE having bought a lot at over 25p. I am relieved I didn't buy more at 10p

[fevertreeman] 13/2/2024 17:02

Shareholders have got to hand it to the Chuckle Brothers, Johnson & Bundred (not forgetting Cunningham the ex-FD)! The epic scale of shareholder destruction is something to behold.

Over the last 12 years, SCE has raised £72m of equity from shareholders (ignoring grants, loans etc). The last time SCE did a fundraise at the current level was way back in February 2013, when they raised £500k at 8p per share.

Today's market cap = £29m. Bundred must go!

[bones] 13/2/2024 16:43

With respect, amt, you were pushing BGO on this thread a few months back well before its “profit warning” that halved its price recently. There’s very few “undervalued” shares about on AIM where investors haven’t had a good scalding lately!

Probably best to put your theory to the test. Today’s closing prices:

SCE 8.15p
BGO 109p

We can have a look again on 31st December 2024. I’ll bookmark it for a bit of fun!

[amt] 13/2/2024 16:12

The share I didn't name earlier but stated there was a massive undervaluation with more upside than SCE without the risk was Bango by the way. I was loading up at a quid in the last few days. This is a problem for SCE as better opportunities with ludicrous undervaluations on AIM

[geko5trade] 13/2/2024 15:30

fevertreeman, For me it's the lack of acceptance of that fact that's the problem. You do what you can do in a business and buy in the skills where you need them. It really is that simple imo.

[fevertreeman] 13/2/2024 13:05

The old adage more sellers than buyers is particularly apposite here at the moment. Confidence in management is shot to pieces; Johnson hasn't produced any compelling reason why, given the disasters of the last 18 months, any new investor should chance their arm and take a position. For all the compelling equity story that LTHs subscribe to, myself included, in the end itsonly as good as management's ability to execute, which this lot has been unable to do.