Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[bones] 13/2/2024 18:08

It’s easy to become despondent and this thread has become a Slough of Despond!

Nobody apparently believes a light will appear in the future.

For me, the first report that states that the production issues are properly ironing out and production and sales rates increasing markedly will be a potential eureka moment for the share price (from its extreme level of despair).

That needs to be coupled with confirmation that cash balances are being controlled. In that regard, the cash burn in late 2023 should not be repeated in early 2024 since there is now a capex loan to draw on for that part of the business outgoings. In 2023, the bulk of cash burn was on capital expense.

Despite the morass we find our investment in, I remain confident there is an upland somewhere ahead.

[amt] 13/2/2024 17:23

Trouble is Bones is that its conceivable things get much worse and our shares are as good as worthless. That's not going to happen with Bango, hence its a much better bet.

[bones] 13/2/2024 17:19

Indeed, SCE is a sore point for my portfolio too. Only the recent new placing investors are becalmed, albeit already nearly 20% off themselves! I suppose it’s possible the current seller is one or more of those placees operating a stop loss or changing strategy? We will never know.

[amt] 13/2/2024 17:13

Correct Bones, yes I have been a huge fan of Bango for years and I stick by my belief they were very cheap at double the existing price, hence my belief they are ludicrously undervalued now. Yes it will be interesting to see what happens in a year or so.
I have a huge loss with SCE having bought a lot at over 25p. I am relieved I didn't buy more at 10p

[fevertreeman] 13/2/2024 17:02

Shareholders have got to hand it to the Chuckle Brothers, Johnson & Bundred (not forgetting Cunningham the ex-FD)! The epic scale of shareholder destruction is something to behold.

Over the last 12 years, SCE has raised £72m of equity from shareholders (ignoring grants, loans etc). The last time SCE did a fundraise at the current level was way back in February 2013, when they raised £500k at 8p per share.

Today's market cap = £29m. Bundred must go!

[bones] 13/2/2024 16:43

With respect, amt, you were pushing BGO on this thread a few months back well before its “profit warning” that halved its price recently. There’s very few “undervalued” shares about on AIM where investors haven’t had a good scalding lately!

Probably best to put your theory to the test. Today’s closing prices:

SCE 8.15p
BGO 109p

We can have a look again on 31st December 2024. I’ll bookmark it for a bit of fun!

[amt] 13/2/2024 16:12

The share I didn't name earlier but stated there was a massive undervaluation with more upside than SCE without the risk was Bango by the way. I was loading up at a quid in the last few days. This is a problem for SCE as better opportunities with ludicrous undervaluations on AIM

[geko5trade] 13/2/2024 15:30

fevertreeman, For me it's the lack of acceptance of that fact that's the problem. You do what you can do in a business and buy in the skills where you need them. It really is that simple imo.

[fevertreeman] 13/2/2024 13:05

The old adage more sellers than buyers is particularly apposite here at the moment. Confidence in management is shot to pieces; Johnson hasn't produced any compelling reason why, given the disasters of the last 18 months, any new investor should chance their arm and take a position. For all the compelling equity story that LTHs subscribe to, myself included, in the end itsonly as good as management's ability to execute, which this lot has been unable to do.

[amanitaangelicus] 13/2/2024 11:59

Robin. In the uk ...bod cant trade within 30 days of interims, or finals unless times have changed. No chance of private buying. These aim circus companies always just give overly generous share options - it.s the culture. Make money and get out with quids in the bank.

[robinbell] 13/2/2024 11:23

I think we are in a close period so they can't.

[fevertreeman] 13/2/2024 11:00

And at this point, one would expect that Bundred, Johnson, Maddock,and the NEDs would make su=ome directors purchases. But, no, I've forgotten, why would Johnson or Maddocks buy any when they have been gifted a tonne of free share options. Exec teams on AIM are laughing and s/holders suffer, as if the options never vest and share price is below strike price, chances are they get repriced. If the share price motors above share price happy days. Basically win-win for likes of Johnson & Maddocks.

[bones698] 13/2/2024 10:51

If an ii is selling in an illiquid share like ace then the fall is far from over an could see this much lower yet. This market isn't rational and is not giving any value to anything that is making losses and has a low cash position. The re are. A lot of shares valued at cash or lower.
Sce has an order book that is probably keeping it valued higher than those but there is certainly some major concerns here that need to be addressed ASAP and the way its looking is of more bad news likely to come.

If there is an ii selling and if they have quite a few still to sell wouldn't surprise me to see 5p as mental as that sounds I've seen similar scenarios happen elsewhere where they continue to fall to almost unforeseeable lows. As much a speopel think its oversold or undervalued it won't stop it falling further if the seller keeps selling.

[quemaster] 13/2/2024 10:04

this is an old capital markets day video presentation explaing the new manufacturing process and how they expand from £20m capacity to £50m. There are multiple stages in the production line with only one machine in place for many of them at £20m capacity.

I assume the prioritising of capex spending on single points of failure means adding additional machines where they have only one in place at £20m capacity with areas that already have more than one being the last to be filled when expansion is completed mid year.

This is covered from 12 minutes in.

[bagpuss67] 13/2/2024 08:25

Load of 1 trades...

[bagpuss67] 13/2/2024 08:05

Small top up for me! Not reported yet..

Must be a big seller as didn't move price...

[bagpuss67] 13/2/2024 08:00

Or AIM market just F+++++ up.

[amanitaangelicus] 13/2/2024 07:46

Basic maths, at this current mkt cap , given the order book and current cash position,tells me the share is undervalued substantially. The mkt, whether you agree or not, is usually more on the money, on average,than we are though.Conclusion...they think the current management cant turn this around. Maybe orders have been cancelled but we.ve not been told yet- just insiders. New equipment, manpower recruitment not going as swimmingly as expected?Hoping that the ii currently selling, knows nowt, and other ii dont join in the 'fun'. Mad share price 'What.s that saying? Oh yes. If it sounds too good to be true ,it probably is'

[bones698] 13/2/2024 06:56

Bgapuss have you ever known someone who created the company simply gand I've the reigns son easily? I really doubt that's the case here and the so is pointing to things not being well or a torrid time with the ii continuing to sell. It just looks like a place not to invest until things become clearer andntheybarnebktnbery good at clearing matters up

[amt] 13/2/2024 05:41

I will tell you when I have finished loading up.

[bdaonion] 12/2/2024 23:15

amt. Excuse my skepticism but so many posters make such claims but never mention even one stock. I'd love to know of one, it may even be one I would like to own.

[amt] 12/2/2024 22:56

The other issue is that there are some amazing value stocks on AIM with ludicrously low valuations with much less risk and just as much upside. So why take a risk when there are much safer opportunities elsewhere.

[bdaonion] 12/2/2024 21:28

Amid all the doom and gloom, at least the new Aston Martin Vantage for H2 2024 release is using carbon ceramic brakes, albeit it as an option. 7.30 in on the video.

[fevertreeman] 12/2/2024 20:36

Maddocks hasn't particularly covered herself in glory.

She arrived on Sept 3rd (but presumably had been liaising closely with finance dept and the board in the weeks running up to joining). She then had roughly 4 weeks to pour over the numbers, review everything & take a view. As an experienced CFO she must have known that the confident outlook provided by Bundred & Johnson was nowhere near the truth, and yet the outlook statement appears to have gone unchallenged.
So when the Sept 27th interims were published, most s/holders breathed a sigh of relief, believing that as no nasties had been uncovered Maddocks must be ok with the finances. Perhaps the clue was there - she wasn't named on the press release. Now technically it wasn't her reporting period as she wasn't FD for the period. However, I certainly would have expected her to be named on the release; but then if she knew she was going to drop a bombshell in a matter of weeks, it all makes sense. And that's what happened on Nov 3rd which then led to Nov 13 emergency cash call.

Conclusions to draw:

1. She misread or was misled about the state of ST, which isn't great
2. Whilst she can escape blame for the disaster of '23 she has nowhere to hide now in '24, because she signed off on the revenue target for current year (despite the opportunity to reduce forecasts) and is responsible for deciding how much working capital was needed in the fundraise.

[bagpuss67] 12/2/2024 19:47

Perhaps they are Isabelle Maddocks forecasts now and maybe Stephen Easton has some valuable input to the manufacturing process and scale up. My money is that they have more input to these matters now than B+J