Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[toffeeman] 19/2/2024 13:17

>> Riv - looks like a two sided trade

[rivaldo] 19/2/2024 13:15

Good to see the share price ticking up a touch on healthy volumes, with 2.6m shares traded already today.

[quemaster] 16/2/2024 09:36

Aman, I concede that I've made mistakes as at one point I was in profit by a decent six figure amount, my portfolio was out of balance and I should of sold some. Thanks for reminding that my optimism has not served me well here, perhaps if you find yourself in the London area you could pop round and kick me in the nuts as well.

[amanitaangelicus] 16/2/2024 07:17

Bagpuss - inexperienced amateurs.

[bagpuss67] 16/2/2024 00:36

Why so many silly 1 and 4 trades. Someone/thing is doing that for a reason

[bagpuss67] 15/2/2024 23:46

Amanit. Maybe because they are investors not traders.

[pinkfoot2] 15/2/2024 21:47

EIS relief meant a lot followed it down-but this market doesn’t take prisoners

It’s never been a trading stock-it’s one for the bottom drawer and ride out the troughs.

£400m orderbook and unique product at 60pc GM-vastly undervalued and unloved

[quemaster] 15/2/2024 18:46

I've held other stocks that have no problems producing the product or service but the demand has been very sporadic, you think the company has got it nailed only to see the orders drop off the following year. ST has viability of demand that is pretty much guaranteed for years into the future.

If ST get on top of production and start putting buffer stock in place we should be looking at a completely different valuation here.

[amanitaangelicus] 15/2/2024 17:52

What I dont understand, is why so many allegedly intelligent investors, some with OEM linked experience, held onto their shares during the stellar fall. Too much love. Bias confirmed. Couldnt take a loss. Many here are submerged no doubt.

[damayhill] 15/2/2024 15:07

rivaldo, you're absolutely right (though £32m rather than £22m) and as you know the market cap was previously almost three times that on a substantially lower order book. The decline since has been all about ability to ramp up production and some sub-optimal handling of the most recent raise.

But if they can continue to demonstrate ramp-up and achieve the £20m+ this year, I see little reason why we couldn't get back to the same levels, even within the next 12 months. That would equate to a share price of around 24-26p, which I currently have as my best case scenario for YE24.

[pinkfoot2] 15/2/2024 10:36

My recent experience with OEMs is that they like local supply-covid exposed global supply chains.But that is for the medium term.Just now, I’m sure the contracted volume is from Liverpool

As for the constant berating of the team, I think they have addressed the weaknesses so let’s get behind them

[fevertreeman] 15/2/2024 09:50

Bones,

Not a grudge against Holly Johnson, just anger/disbelief at the way he/Bundred misled investors in Sept at interims. Plus the grant of share options which explains why he has yet to put up any serious cash of his own....that's for another day.

Yes you are totally right about the US OEM market - the idea SCE can export long-term from Knowsley, with the shipping costs/exchange rate issues is not credible. The trouble is that management's operational performance to date has been so inept, that the idea of John sitting in Juarez pouring over blueprints etc doesnt fill me with anything but horror.

Ultimately, if they can more orders on board, and prove they can handle the ramp up then I do not see Johnson & Maddocks wanting to do anything but get the hell out of Dodge by cashing in their chips, unless they end up with a big strategic investor like a Tesla/Ford. Otherwise suitors aplenty: carbon specialists like SGL or Morgan; auto players like Bosch(privately owned); engineering conglomerates ;or dearol private equity.

[amanitaangelicus] 15/2/2024 08:50

Mad order book to mkt cap / share price Looks like the bargain of the century.

[bones] 15/2/2024 08:36

Lol, fevertree.

It could only happen once Knowsley has proved itself. The Johnson issue (grudge?) will be distant history by then should it all come to pass.

It’s a serious point though. It sounds like the future customer base will be mainly US based, so a Mexican factory is decent odds in any long term strategy planning. That’s if some US predator hasn’t already seen the value and bought SCE out for a bargain from the value-blind Brits.

[rivaldo] 15/2/2024 08:31

Hopefully yesterday's move up and the early tick up this morning is indicative that any large sellers are now out.

The £22m m/cap here is truly ludicrous when compared to a zillion other companies on the market - there are companies with virtually zero or little revenues who are valued at far more!

[amt] 14/2/2024 22:47

Well Bones you are off to a flyer vs my Bango. However I think tomorrow will be a good day for Bango not sure about SCE but it's a competition I would quite happily loose if SCE shoots up a lot. I need 28p to break even after the latest fiasco.

[fevertreeman] 14/2/2024 22:31

Jeez be careful what you wish for! Given Johnson has shown a complete inability to manage the assets on the ground in Knowsley, I'd lay seriously long odds he would be capable of managing a bunch of Mexicans!

[fevertreeman] 14/2/2024 22:28

Jeez be careful what you wish for! Given Johnson has shown a complete inability to manage the assets on the ground in Knowsley, I'd lay seriously long odds he would be capable of managing a bunch of Mexicans!

[bones] 14/2/2024 20:41

Moving on……R30;…

Here’s a little snippet from a Bloomberg email I subscribe to:

“Chinese auto-parts makers are joining the wave of companies setting up shop in Mexico, aiming to help Tesla and others manufacture vehicles headed for the US market.”

fft (post 9132) earlier talked about Tesla and GM deciding where they would like their parts made so maybe a subsidiary in Mexico will be the next stage after Knowsley is fully up and running. It will spread risk to have separate locations serving the main markets (especially the US).

[supernumerary] 14/2/2024 20:37

It's bizarre - in the days when I had to correct that sort of stuff I'd have just red-penned the whole thing with my usual kindly 'rewrite more clearly' comment. You obviously had a more forgiving editor; or maybe you were no more capable of learning then than now?

'Really just not fair'??? I don't know what you're on about, which means you don't either. See previous para.

As I said, grow up and get over it. In the meanwhile, remember that clarity of thought, clarity of expression, and hard facts are key to an effective argument. If you need help, Orwell is good on the subject:

You started the 'conversation' with an incorrect and ill-mannered post. Good to hear you're backing away from it.

[damayhill] 14/2/2024 20:19

Umm, yes, that's pretty straightforward English, although you've chosen to omit the really key part of the sentence, naturally! The fact that you understand neither the sentence nor the concept behind it makes things an awful lot clearer to me, thank you.

Perhaps stick to comments about how it's really just not fair for the little guys, right, that the industry chooses not to publicise suppliers, right. But if we all club together and close our eyes tight and wish really hard, maybe we can change that, right?

Done with this conversation.

[fillspectre] 14/2/2024 19:53

@ quemaster - thanks for the friendly welcome back post. Like I said I have never been away - just sitting on my hands dismayed in the background. @ Pinkfoot2 - I resumed posting to keep you company :-)
On a discussive note. Anyone venture a Company valuation at 3.34p to 4p EBITDA? Remembering we have 352 million shares now. Yes I have been rereading the LTIP RNS announcement. Fils

[supernumerary] 14/2/2024 19:43

damay - you've been wrong every discussion. Making snide comments in your earlier post, and completely incomprehensible ones (eg 'I believe it would be preferential to shareholders if they were not in a position to announce a new meaningful contract' - is that even English?) in this one change nothing.

Grow up and get over it.

[bagpuss67] 14/2/2024 18:33

I believe they will announce Q1 sales in early April and the results in mid-April.

[damayhill] 14/2/2024 18:19

Oh please, supernumerary, let's not go down that cul-de-sac again. Of course they must announce a contract whenever it is agreed. Facile point.

I have been clear numerous times (and for some reason you choose to wilfully ignore it) that I believe it would be preferential to shareholders if they were not in a position to announce a new meaningful contract until after a positive April TU because beforehand it will have no impact on share price whilst concerns about manufacturing ramp-up continue, whereas afterwards it would have a potential amplification effect.

I'm not sure which part of that you continue to struggle to understand?

The fact is you embarrassed yourself horribly on here a few weeks ago and since then you have directed your embarrassment towards me, for reasons best known to yourself. Let's just remind ourselves of that absolute belter, which demonstrates your expert grasp on the automotive industry:

'If it's the industry standard not to name suppliers, that's understandable because they're all big companies who don't need the day-to-day support, but tiddlers like sce do, and it's up to them to negotiate contracts that allow reasonable publicity. Why does everybody seem to accept that the status quo cannot be changed? If managers can't do that, then they're not doing their jobs.'