Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[bagpuss67] 08/2/2024 07:32

Super. No. I'm an FCA, FABRP, a finacial advisory partner at a large firm and have an MA in Engineering. It's more that when he goes quiet, it has in the past, been because he has been taken inside

[quemaster] 08/2/2024 07:00

What information do we have from recent communications regarding the manufacturing process?

We know the biggest problem with the furnaces appears to be resolved but this was followed by single points of failure bringing the production line to a halt, the reason given was that the machinery had never been used before in the way it was as the process is unique to ST so there was no historical data to work from, this resulted in breakdowns as how hard they can work the equipment and when to service it was not fully understood.

What has been done to try to resolve these issues?

Stephen Easton was appointed as COO from SGL Carbon and managers assigned to take control of sections of production. Single points of failure have been prioritised for expansion spending with £50m capacity due to be in place by the middle of this year. It should be the case that lessons learned and more capacity will make holdups in production less likely as time goes by. With the US OEMs engineering teams being involved in resolving production issues and still awarding contracts it would appear they expect ST to get on top the issues as well.

I appreciate the views of the more negative posters as it provides balance to the likes of myself who have been overly optimistic, but feel some here would be happy to see a lower share price and a better entry point.

[supernumerary] 07/2/2024 23:42

Why? Have you been relying on him for advice? Possibly not the best strategy in the light of events.

Let's face it we all knew the price was going down - inexorable rule of AIM - in the absence of news the share price will fall. The only question has ever been how far? If they manage to maintain their news blackout until April, where would say a halfpenny a week - not much in the grand scheme of things - take us?

A corollary to that rule is that a long drawn out fall will induce speculation, which will attract shorts and traders looking to buy as cheaply as possible, who will amuse themselves by spreading fud.

Incidentally, apropos nothing at all, I see the (unverified) whinge on that employee site has changed. Who was it before? Ashia somebody - MacDonald? some such improbable combination - has now become Philip Blakemore, and all the names and gory details have been removed...

[bagpuss67] 07/2/2024 22:08

PinkF very quiet.Always unnerves me..

[damayhill] 07/2/2024 19:08

quazie, yep I understand that and I respect your view. As it happens I run a £30m t/o business so very much in the same ballpark, albeit in an entirely different sector.

There is no doubt that the senior team has made mistakes over the past two years. However, some seem to forget that it's the same team of KJ/DB (and I am absolutely not an apologist for either, far from it) that has taken SCE from a £150k t/o idea, working with a small number of incredibly niche customers at tiny volumes and also dabbling in miltary/defence, to what is an incredibly focused company with forecast £20m+ t/o this year, having broken into a previously monopolistic market, not only winning nine-figure Tier 1 contracts to a total of a c.£400m order book but also winning them off the only competitor.

My point is that there is certainly more than one way to paint the Kevin Johnson story.

[quazie12] 07/2/2024 18:44

And it will not take much more in the way of failures for order books to dry up, contracts terminated then the game is up. For me the CEO is out of his depth and has screwed the execution up. Let's see if he proves me wrong. Put it this way, there is clearly no confidence from institutions, the market or insiders to put their hands in their pocket and start buying

[quazie12] 07/2/2024 18:40

What criticisms have been personal exactly ? A number of posters here run or have run businesses and are realistic about how the world works and the day to day difficulties companies face. I have lost faith in senior management. There is a shared perception that there is a large disconnect between the shop floor and the BoD and issues have been allowed to develop and fester. This really is on the CEO he has made the company extremely vulnerable

[amanitaangelicus] 07/2/2024 17:43

robinbell - that is the biggest risk. Not valued highly at all - mkt cap for nowt- super order book though. Not heard of any cancelled orders because there s no real competition in the UK. Need to sort the 7(?) bottlenecks out. Next update Aprilish? Gotta be an ii selling - share price is weak as.

[damayhill] 07/2/2024 17:29

Thanks bones698 and yeah, I get it. I guess we're reflecting the two sides of the coin. Waiting for it to happen means it's after the event and potentially too late. Assuming (however fairly) that it is going to happen means acting without hard facts.

[damayhill] 07/2/2024 16:50

April TU, I'm looking at:

Ideal scenario - confirmed sales in a £3.9-£4.2M range, with positive but measured language around continued ramp up and no major technical problems or future capacity hold-ups. Possible bounce to 12-13p and slightly decreased chance of further raise, pending H1 TU.

Acceptable scenario - £3.6m-£3.9m and as above. I wouldn't expect any share price action because further raise is still very much in the balance.

Unacceptable scenario - under £3.6m and/or either of the above. This is the scenario in which I think a further raise becomes more likely on the basis that ramp-up is not happening quickly enough for the cash we have.

[robinbell] 07/2/2024 16:24

Well they can't have run out of money since the beginning of the year. Even if they are spending it fast. I believe someone with a large holding has been selling for some time.My biggest fear is someone comes in and buys the company not that much above where we are now and I never get the chance to make a really decent profit.

[bones698] 07/2/2024 16:24

Geko. I work in manufacturing as an engineer so am familiar with machinery although not exactly with furnaces . In the wider industry there has been a brain drain within engineering with a ever shrinking number of people with any real knowledge around . This won't help problem solving on machinery and even less so if the management aren't willing to listen .
The genuine assumption that new machinery is installed and will work is a total misconception. That is almost never the case and even more unlikely given this type of equipment and the issues already hurting production .

For me the disconnect between management and the ship floor is alarming and not conducive to rectifying the issue satisfactorily . This is why I doubt they will get near their target and I can see more bad news further down the line .

On the plus side the order book will continue to grow and might help boost the share price a bit but short lived . As for someone buying them out , I tend to find this is more in desperation than reality as everyone thinks their company might get taken over the reality is not many do and most go out of business . I remember trk having oema and order books etc that came to nothing .
For me they set themselves a difficult target to achieve with 23m wether they achieve it or not remains to be seen but I'm very doubtful certainly at this stage and with the install yet to be completed . We have had no confirmation production issues from the last lot have been resolved properly either .

As good as some things are here there is a lot that isn't good and why the share price looks to keep heading south . They should have taken the hit and issued a lower number last time then hopefully beaten it but they chose to be optimistic imo and that will backfire badly if they don't succeed . Going of recent history their track record of achieving is underwhelming to say the least .

I thought the last cash raise would be good to see tej through to profit but they have burned through a large amount of it within a few months. And that has just raised the prospect more will be needed which will be horrific if the share price isn't higher and that's my problem here . The share price heading south ,lack of news and potential missed revenues and problems further down the line could mean another fund raise at 5p is quite possible .

Nobody knows for sure which way it will go that's the gamble . If they hit that target , don't need funda then it looks very cheap . The hard part with these type of shares is picking the bottom and hoping they succeed after .

How many have tried and failed and now sat on losses even though they believed in the imminent success .

For me I see it falling lower at some point and until the picture is clearer would wait on the sidelines you might miss out on some of the rise of/when it happens but you could also save yourself 50% potentially and see far bigger gains if timed right . Just my opinion

[quazie12] 07/2/2024 16:22

Plus a chunk of Ivory Tower syndrome

[quazie12] 07/2/2024 16:21

Some of the issues were as simple as staff training FFS.

[geko5trade] 07/2/2024 16:03

spookies, need a bloody fine razor blade to fit a thousand in between here and zero!

Out of interest does anyone really know enough about the manufacturing process to understand the technical difficulties and apparent lack of robustness in the equipment? Is this something that could be dealt with at the design stage of the machinery. I understand that the process is finely controlled and every step requires precision but why exactly is it that this can't be 'designed in'? Or is it rather like our old motorcycle industry where someone is going to come along and take an inherently good design and manufacturer it with the quality control and tolerances that should have been achieved initially and make a success of it? It's painful to see hard won contracts with this order book and the uncertainty of turning out product.

[amt] 07/2/2024 14:51

I cling on to the hope that they turnover 100m.in sales by the end of the decade and the share price is 50× the current value. Not very likely I know but not impossible.

[quazie12] 07/2/2024 14:19

Sorry but the vulnerable position the company finds itself is on KJ. I would invest substantially more if he were to go and be replaced with a credible CEO

[amanitaangelicus] 07/2/2024 12:34

https://hardmanandco.com/hardman-talks-surface-transforms-open-offer-qa/Old ...

[amanitaangelicus] 07/2/2024 10:25

Order book v mkt cap is gobsmacking. Any sane big business with manufacturing rigour, should buy this dog out and sail off into the sunset. I suspect it.s inevitable now. They.ll be interest.

[spookies] 07/2/2024 10:22

For me this feels like death by a thousand cuts. Really hoping things turn around within the next few months.

[robinbell] 07/2/2024 09:51

The 1 million run rate per month for the last three months of last year is only 60% of capacity. If they get the new capacity on stream and running at the same rate I don't see how they will be far from the target. However I'm not sure the split between the first half and the second half will be as expected so it will feel more painful. I expect them to at least be trying to improve that rate and to get the new capacity up and running asap.