Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[fevertreeman] 25/1/2024 11:45

Tried buying just now but there is no quote on the offer side....intereesting

[quemaster] 25/1/2024 11:42

bones698 your £5m, I think this could be explained by capex and fundraising costs, total capex for 2023 came in at £9m, £1m more than forecast, they had mentioned that any cash raised above the original amount may be used to advance spending. H1 was £4.8m leaving £4.2m for H2 which was possibly largely held off until the fundraising was secured.

[damayhill] 25/1/2024 08:57

Yes, that's right. The idea that a contract announcement would follow the trading update is utterly fantastical. How is it possible for one individual to get the wrong end of every available stick? Hats off to you.

[supernumerary] 24/1/2024 23:10

lol - you're the one spraying his fantasies around a public bulletin board, not me!

[damayhill] 24/1/2024 22:38

OK supernumerary, still sore about thoroughly embarrassing yourself last time out huh?

Yes, that would would be my preference in terms of the sequence of announcements over the next three months because I believe it would have a much more positive impact on the share price. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.

Oh, and I prefer brunettes, an automatic drive, and eggs over-easy, since you ask.

[supernumerary] 24/1/2024 21:10

Ok, thanks for letting us know. Any other 'personal preferences' we should know about?

[damayhill] 24/1/2024 20:39

supernumerary, yes they will have no discretion over when they announce it. It's just my personal preference that they will not be in a position to announce any until after a trading update, that's all.

[supernumerary] 24/1/2024 19:59

Contracts that are financially significant are supposed to be announced when they arrive, not when it suits the company's (or its shareholders') preferences.

But I agree contract announcements will have little impact without credible evidence of their ability to deliver them.

[damayhill] 24/1/2024 18:33

Fevertree, there might well be a consistent newsflow between now and April. My point is that I wouldn't particularly expect it to have any impact on share price unless/until production ramp-up is confirmed by sales and the next likely update on sales is April. I'd therefore see any announcement around contracts as 'wasted bullets' if I can put it that way. For me the ideal would be an April TU which both confirms a good continued ramp-up in Q1 and announces a new sizeable contract at the same time. The former will amplify the latter. The latter in isolation will not have an impact. If the share price continues to languish between now and then, so be it. I'm in no hurry and anybody who is in a hurry should have looked elsewhere.

[swiss paul] 24/1/2024 18:02

Bones
Based in Liverpool didn't exactly fill me with confidence either

You mean like JLR and associated supply chains.

Take your head down the garden and give it a wobble
hxxps://www.jaguarlandrovercareers.com/content/United-Kingdom/?locale=en_GB

Yikes its in Knowsley - just like SCE

[pinkfoot2] 24/1/2024 16:07

Well I would join the board if I had the chance-and I would have significant skin in it so I wouldn’t be independent.Far from it

I get the sense the opportunity outgrew the team, unexpectedly, and that shock has found them out.A good shock in might add.

The key here is to get ahead of the inventory curve and have stock on the shelves/glitches then become an irritation rather than a drama

[fevertreeman] 24/1/2024 15:24

Management is ALWAYS the issue with companies. The realisation that they didn't have the engineering & operational expertise in place till far too late does not reflect well on Johnson (or Bundred). lets see how the COO performs but it must be a reflection of his importance to the organisation that despite not being on the board his options package is not far short of the CFO's.

I'd like to think Damay that there is consistent newsflow between now and April, as otherwise the share price could easily slip its moorings again

[amanitaangelicus] 24/1/2024 13:19

It.s important to he skeptical. How many times have you bn promised the earth on Aim and things fail to materialise. Univ researchers / spin outs out of their depth in the real world of commerce/ finance. This board is full of peeps who failed to sell from the stratospheric heights and now only want to hear the good news stuff. Newbies like myself, will jump in and out. The story, potential looks really good! It.s a recovery play now. Can they pull it off? Lets see ...

[bones698] 24/1/2024 13:09

A couple of more points you haven't commented on pinkfoot
They blew through nearly 5m of cash in 2 months since the raise how do you explain that ?
Not all the 25m.is for running the business as 13m for expansion and can't be used for operational costs .

The order book is just that until it's fulfilled and whilst it's nice to have if they can't fulfil those orders or make money from them it's not worth a great deal especially if they keep needing to dilute because of ongoing issues .
The comment posted about a disconnect between management and the shopfloor/ engineering isn't a positive let's be honest and if that's the case explains the issues they are having . I doubt it will be resolved quite so easily as management tend to blame everyone else and don't change .

[damayhill] 24/1/2024 12:58

Wholeheartedly agree with your assessment pinkfoot, albeit I do think it would be helpful if the website could receive a little attention.

Those saying that the £23m will be missed may end up being right but at the moment, it's just guessing. The requisite sales volumes for H1 are around the £9m mark and therefore within the existing capacity IF all aspects operational.

I see little reason why the share price won't continue at existing levels until the April TU, at which (as previously stated), I'd want to see confirmation of about £3.8 - £4.2M for Q1. If there is a contract announcement before then, it might create some share price uplift but I can't see why we'd see any real action until further demonstration of production ramp-up. Further contracts are lovely, but winning business isn't the prevailing issue. That's why I would personally prefer to see any new contract award announcement until after a positive TU in April, as it would get a significant amplification effect.

[fevertreeman] 24/1/2024 12:35

Pinkfoot,


Website: Thanks for following up with KJ. I tried to engage with Maddocks, but impossible to get through. Website need s substantial revamp.Website is indeed front of house, and it needs a substantial revamp as just not fit for purpose. Front of house and first place anyone interested in the company heads be it investors,customers, media, or potential employees

300K miss: wasn't suggesting profits warning more the fact that they couldn't make their own number then ignored any explanation

Board: you know my feelings on Bundred; also instructive that the newest NED didn't put hand in pocket. Just saying who was asking the right questions around the table heading into & out of the interim

Cas: disagree it remains an issue as long as they continue to face operational problems which hurts working capital. The bulk of the monies - the loan - is ringfenced for capex.

[misterd1] 24/1/2024 11:59

Agree on the website point as it appears to be half-year report data driven

I've just looked at the Zeus forecast and growth assumptions aside does anyone know why both admin expenses and staff costs are expected to fall in 24 (7,800 to 7,600 and 5,300 to 4,200)

Struck me as odd

Edit - I should add that some may (in 24) fall within COS - but still odd nonetheless imo

[pinkfoot2] 24/1/2024 11:46

This is a brutal market.You get punished for non delivery as we know and that is what has happened here.

Did they miss their numbers-yes by £300k,probably £100k max of contribution.Unhelpful but not a profit warning so let’s get some perspective.

Does the website matter?Not really-it’s a £400m order book(firm) and the verification is from the said order book.I will however speak to Kevin and get it sorted as it is front of house.

Board-they can’t be that bad.They have a £400m order book from some of the largest companies in the world.Its the operational side that has caused issues-which they have addressed as we know.

FD-very strong.She did well to get out of Cropper in a timely fashion

Cash-they have just raised over £25m so not an issue

The concern is short term in my view-getting the capacity will all them to build some forward inventory.i suspect current product isn’t even hitting the stock room

[fevertreeman] 24/1/2024 11:25

Pinkfoot, we're all in this together, and most of us have been on board a long while,and seen ups and downs, but the breathtaking speed with which it all fell apart between Sept & Dec really is astounding. So as one professional to another, what are your thoughts below:

1. Do you think that confidently forecasting £8.6m & then missing their own target with no explanation is good management? (its not the 300k fig but the principal)
2. Do you think that the website is fit for purpose?
3. What changes, if any, do you think are needed to give more comfort to OEMs & shareholders?
4. Is there sufficient bench strength among the management team?

[amt] 24/1/2024 10:47

Large shareholders can always contact the Company if they want reassurance

[fevertreeman] 24/1/2024 10:38

Bones, pretty much echoes my concerns.

[pinkfoot2] 24/1/2024 10:36

Well I’m no insider and neither are you-you seem to wallow in spreading fear.

It is only a few days since they put their forecasts out and raised the new money-so we have the likes of yourself spreading fear and misery about forecasts and cash-the reality is you are guessing.Thats fine mate as its a free world but its rather tedious and before you say it, I’m not emotionally attached to the share

[bones698] 24/1/2024 10:24

Feverteen . They expect the extra capacity will make up for increased production and revenue however it won't be online until later this year and then it's down to what issues they have imo . For me I think they will miss significantly maybe 18m region but the market won't like anything below the stated figure of 23m .

Given most of the early months revenue will be around 1-1.5m a month they have a hell of a lot to make up for in H2 this year and for me that is dangerous given it's new equipment and likely face issues

Aman very much so . A bit like listening to so called experts lol

[amanitaangelicus] 24/1/2024 10:23

Beware board insiders ... I smell paid for promo.

[fevertreeman] 24/1/2024 09:58

Share price likely marooned around placing price until we have decent newsflow. But the lack of bounce or a rally IMO reflects deeper concerns about a management team where trust has pretty much evaporated. The TU with the £8.3m revs outturn (vs £8.6m forecast) is a symptom IMO of Johnson's inability to deliver in line with expectations, and then hide/ignore the fact that it didn't meet his own forecast....If he cant deliver comfort on something as current as those figs last month then it stands to reason that Mr Market will continue to fret about Johnson's forecasts for current year, which boils down to shareholders already starting to question:

1. Is the £23m revenue YE24 target realistic? Did Johnson give himself room for manoeuvre or is this another case of CEO playing to the OEM gallery (the customers) & ignoring shareholders (the owners).

I don't recall any detailed explanation of how KJ justified this figure. Or was it just a case of needing to raise £ so put out the most optimistic fig we can, cynically knowing that if we don't hit it we can roll out the blame mantra again: single points of failure; complexity of machinery; staff training & development problems etc...

2. Working capital. will they run out of cash again this year