Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[bones698] 11/1/2024 17:39

Ty pinkfoot I'm still here . It's now a waiting game . Next news will be contract awards so should see a bit of a bounce before April trading update which I'm not looking forward to for you guys .
Other than that it's all been said really and back to the grind .
I took a position at 10.7 for the bounce on those but longer term I won't be holding as I see more bad news coming . I would like to invest but the case looks too weak ATM even at these levels So a short term trade .for me only

[amanitaangelicus] 10/1/2024 21:01

All pudding , no proof. Need to wait n see if these blaggers can deliver what they say they can. 60/40 against based on their recent history..Obs got the makings of a jolly good business. For once, this is actually a decent business.

[swiss paul] 10/1/2024 19:41

Bones well done - keep it up.
As I have said previously - and been nailed for it.

Don't believe in all that you read from the co and its advisors . Mostly its about what is not said.

Keep Safe

[quemaster] 10/1/2024 18:38

Maybe that was him buying this afternoon and he'll be back as "bones the bull".

[bdaonion] 10/1/2024 18:12

There's a good chance then that he won't be back.

[cheese666] 10/1/2024 17:13

It's because the price has risen. He'll be back when it's red again.

[bones] 10/1/2024 17:00

Steady on pinkfoot!

[pinkfoot2] 10/1/2024 16:51

I’m having withdrawal symptoms from Bones

[damayhill] 10/1/2024 12:03

Yep, my numbers refer to the carbon ceramics brake discs market and market share only.

[bagpuss67] 10/1/2024 10:26

​​​;​​̴3;Brembo is a multinational corporation that operates in 15 countries in 3 different continents. Brembo has a total of 9 research laboratories, 31 production and business sites through which it sells its own products in over 70 countries worldwide. ​

The company has a workforce of over 15,000 employees, approximately 10% of whom are engineers and product specialists who are involved in important research and development work. Every year, new human and manufacturing resources are added to the different Brembo branches worldwide, especially in emerging and developing markets

one day before i turn my toes up! Appreciate they manufacture other components...

[damayhill] 10/1/2024 09:38

It's a fair question but I struggle to see any scenario in which they need more than the £150m capacity prior to the expected dates. Any major contracts won from here on in will likely be SOP 2027 at the earliest. What I would love to read at some point in 2025/26 - on the big assumption things go reasonably smoothly - is a planned expansion to a second manufacturing plant based in the US or continental Europe. But that really is getting ahead of ourselves.

[bagpuss67] 10/1/2024 09:28

what about if they had more capital and could scale quicker eg strategic investor..

[damayhill] 10/1/2024 09:23

Really well put Bagpuss.

On another subject, based on the evidence available so far, my model has SCE winning c.2.5% market share from Brembo per year, within a market that grows at 11% per year until 2028 (as per market data) and 15% per year thereafter (guesswork). Hence:

1% of £216m market in 2021 = £2.2m (close enough to the £2.1m actual)
2.5% of a £240m market in 2022 = £6m (close enough to the £5.1m actual)
5% of a £270m market in 2023 = £13.5m (this is roughly what they were contractually due to deliver in 2023 and I believe initial guidance was £14m)
7.5% of £300m market in 2024 = £23m (the guidance for this year)
10% of a £333m market in 2025 = £33m
12.5% of a £369m market in 2026 = £46m
15% of a £410m market in 2027 = £62m
17% of a £455m market in 2028 = £80m

Thoughts welcome.

[bagpuss67] 10/1/2024 09:07

It is more straightforward (although not easy) to rectify manufacturing issues than to achieve the things mentioned in Damayhills post. Few scale up aim companies are supply constrained with such a stong market position, selling a relatively high margin product. I see this as a fantastic opportunity (risks noted)

[damayhill] 10/1/2024 08:56

Sorry... I do question whether I would spend so much time somewhere I hadn't invested a single £. It feels like quite a lot of emotional energy to expend, but each to their own.

[damayhill] 10/1/2024 08:54

bones698, I think many of the criticisms and your assessment of the downside here are completely fair and it's important for people (especially potential new investors) to be aware of those. But I do question whether I

And it's also true that the management's credibility re operational delivery and therefore sales forecasting has taken a significant hit in the past couple of years. But it is also true that the same team of Bundred and Johnson has achieved something very special. Breaking into a growing but until now monopolistic market and becoming established as a Tier 1 supplier (2019), winning multiple high value contracts since, including replacing the existing market dominant supplier (2022) on a major contract - these are what differentiate SCE from the majority of other AIM shares in my view. It's only 'jam tomorrow' because of phased SOP dates on multiple models over the next few years, not 'jam tomorrow' because they have yet to sell a single thing to a single buyer.

[bones698] 10/1/2024 08:36

Pinkfoot this isn't the first time I have posted here over the years ,say 15 of them plus .
My point is they have been here before and said these issues were resolved only later last year to say the same . It doesn't look good for the management and believing what they are saying . Just seems many are putting a lot of faith in the company when the facts show the opposite .

I've met my fair share of CEOs and they all talk a good game ,it's their job/livelihood afterall but most end up failing ,that's the problem with aim .

Their is a fair argument that says being negative will result in being right far more often than those being positive . Just because some don't like to hear it doesn't make it untrue . 90% of aim shares lose investors money so finding the few good ones is difficult to say the least yet so many believe they have invested in those few .

Maybe rename it the rampers thread it seems or at least provide some arguments to the points raised . Not that good a thread of you can't provide reasonable debate

[volsung] 10/1/2024 08:33

‘purport’;

[evilblues] 10/1/2024 08:33

Apologies dear boy but your post is riddled with hypocrisy. It is your posts that are one sided and unbalanced. We all know your case for not investing (it's repeated hourly). Can you offer the balance you pro-port to represent and talk about a case for investing?

[albert_einstein] 10/1/2024 08:30

bones698

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, of course, but your constant negativity and repeatedly posting the same things is tiresome.

You've made it clear umpteen times that you don't rate the Company or its management, we get that, so why not move on to the board of a Company you do rate and post some positive stuff. Just a thought.

[pinkfoot2] 10/1/2024 08:28

Bones-this is one of the best boards as to date it has had free and open discussion-most of us disagree with your view but it has been debated openly and fairly

I can be critical but on this one, and having been involved in other automotive businesses,I get the operational issues-sadly being a plc means you have to provide a running commentary on events, good and bad, and in this market, bad gets slaughtered, good gets not a lot

[damayhill] 10/1/2024 08:18

Hindsight is always a great thing but that is likely to be particularly true of this share, this year. If the revenue targets are achieved and we make it into free cashflow without another raise then my model suggests up to 31p this year (very much agree with you cyber) but with a likelier range of 26-28p, up to 45p in 2025, 63p in 2026 and 84p in 2027 - suddenly today's MC/SP look an absolute steal.

Any other scenario and those buying at these prices may wish they'd held on or swerved altogether. It's a self-evident truth, but a particularly emphatic example of one, I'd suggest. Personally, I have been buying and am happy to take that risk. I completely respect the alternative view but I do think there is unnecessary repetition of some of those views.

[bones698] 10/1/2024 08:14

Hoping to get some kind of intelligent reply to some of the questions but obviously there aren't any and you prove my points .
Tell me is the same question brought up when someone posts ramping bs ? There are plenty on here that say positive things that haven't happened but do you question them I wonder ? Double standards and flakey arguments aren't a positive either
Unlike many I am totally aware posting negative or positive comments has zero effect on the share price , shouldn't prevent healthy discussion but there isn't a lot of that here as far as I can see .
Too many unable to discuss and can't accept opposing views very well .

[pinkfoot2] 10/1/2024 08:08

I’m loathe to ask him why he posts negativity-it’s a free world, but hanging around the school gates waiting for the ice cream van and home time isn’t a good look