Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[damayhill] 11/3/2024 15:08

Liverpool also has one of the richest and proudest manufacturing histories in the world. One of the reasons the city fell on relatively hard times is because of the decline in the manufacturing industries in which it traditionally thrives. The only places in the UK that could rival it are Manchester, Glasgow and, to a lesser degree, Belfast.

[pinkfoot2] 11/3/2024 14:32

Shame on you Fever-Liverpool is one of the wealthiest cities in the U.K. with a massive employment pool

[balcony] 11/3/2024 14:20

Large trade of 380K just reported.

[bomber13] 11/3/2024 14:16

Extraordinary , I have never seen that happen before in any listed company let alone on AIM .

As the clock ticks towards the April trading update , there is no doubt that things will get potentially jumpy in the shareprice , but , given the historic leakiness of this company , this move is at least in the right direction . Even at 10p , the level at which £11m gross was raised in December , the market cap would still be below 10% of the order book .

Getting above that 10p level is really the key in the short term .

[rivaldo] 11/3/2024 12:32

There's been 23 (count 'em!) different buys this morning of 1 share each at 9.39p and now 9.49p.

I know some buy 1 share to attend the AGM, but that's just a one-off. Can someone educate me as to why this happens?! Is it really a code to signify something as some think (this always seems like the usual b.lcks conspiracy theory to me). At least the share price has ticked up.

[swiss paul] 11/3/2024 08:38

They have already successfully engaged with local FE in there plans to enegage with local workforce. Just need to poach from JLR and some of there supply chain co's.

[fevertreeman] 10/3/2024 13:45

I agree with your concerns about Johnson's access to talent. I mean the company is plonked in Knowsley, which the Echo's stats suggest has 30%+ deprivation, in one of the least affluent regions in the UK. Johnson's devotion to Merseyside has been admirable, and of course as Merseyside is desperate to have jobs, especially hi-tech jobs, he has been able to get substantial grant funding to support the narrative. T

The issue going forward is, is there is a genuine pool of hi-skilled labour that the company can access as it expands? If not, then Johnson has an issue. Surely the Board (which includes 2 ex senior OEM execs) must realise that successful expansion of factory footprint must be linked to a proper 'talent' strategy. And yet we all thought that the Board were on top of financing and operational issues....

[fillspectre] 10/3/2024 13:09

@amt - Difficult to judge. I look at the career vacancies every week. It looks like some vacancies remain stubbornly unfilled but who knows there may be more than one vacancy behind each advert. Also they may have high standards and are not getting the right calibre of people. You just don't know. It would seem the vacancies advertised though are directly production focussed. Fils.

[swiss paul] 10/3/2024 13:00

In the interim, anyone know if they are doing 24 hr / 3shift work?

[bones] 10/3/2024 10:14

They said in the blurb as part of the £13M capital loan agreement with the Liverpool authority that this would help create 70 new jobs so I guess that will take time. I don’t see it as a concern, it’s the process of building capacity over time.

[amt] 10/3/2024 07:10

Looking at the careers at SCE it looks like they are still recruiting key people who perhaps should have been in place 18 months ago although that might be a bit unfair.

[amanitaangelicus] 08/3/2024 16:32

Factory on full throttle in Liverpool?! Divn be daft -the scousers will have had a week off, then returned, half cut from drugs n alcohol, finally back to earth a week later. Few away footy game drop outs, so I.d expect a drop. Mind , xmas shutdown wouldve been a gd time to install new line gear ( ish) We.ll soon see. share price is languishing, no spark, no energy, so more than likely they.ll be somewhat off in their plans. Be grand if not so.

[amt] 08/3/2024 10:15

Q4 had Xmas so I would expect much more than 3.6m but that will be a case case to progress from.

[damayhill] 08/3/2024 09:44

It's a really fair point bones and you may well be right. What I would say is that if I was Kevin Johnson or Stephen Easton, I would have gladly taken a hit on the margin by offering incentives, if I thought there was any chance of hitting the £8.6M and sticking one to the naysayers! However, I imagine in a complex manufacturing process, it probably requires everybody to get on board with that, rather than voluntary.

[bones] 08/3/2024 09:25

With reference to the last quarter of 2023, many have assumed it was a flat 1.0M per month given October was 1M and the quarter was 3.0M. This ignores the Christmas effect where most industrial factories in this country shut down from before Christmas Eve. In 2023, the last working day in that scenario would have been Friday 22/12.

Potentially, then, the last £2.0M was churned out in around 1.7 months uptime rather than the 2.0 assumed. So, the rate of output probably was increasing but December output maybe cut short as only in play for three weeks.

I don’t actually know if the factory shut down for Xmas but I doubt it was at full throttle then.

Potentially, on those assumptions, the output rate in December could have been on target for £1.2M.

I would therefore like to see Q1 exceed £3.6M at a minimum which does fit with Damayhill’s hopes!

[damayhill] 08/3/2024 08:44

Fils, I believe you're absolutely right that unless they are ready to announce a new contract, we shouldn't expect any sort of announcement until the April TU. They won't want to provide a running commentary any more than than a quarterly trading update already constitutes a running commentary. I would take no news as neither good nor bad at this stage.

I suspect there is no action because production and therefore revenue is within a range which is acceptable but doesn't get us out of the woods cash-wise. For me it's the likeliest scenario come April: a £3.6M to £3.9M range, which would be encouraging but not categorical. A decent April TU paired with/followed by a decent contract announcement might see a bit of upward movement but I suspect most would still want to keep their powder dry until we can see H1 picture in July.

The critical thing for me is that we are not sub-£3.6M and therefore can demonstrate decent ramp up from Q4 to Q1.

[fillspectre] 07/3/2024 21:42

It is not the silence from the Company that I am referring to. I wouldn't expect any sort of announcement until the April TU. No I was expecting good news to spread fast if we have it. Fils.

[robsy2] 07/3/2024 16:40

Good summary.

[supernumerary] 07/3/2024 12:55

It's certainly a deafening silence...

[fillspectre] 07/3/2024 12:44

Much as I would like to be optimistic I am not getting a good feeling that the April TU is going to lift the share price much. I would have thought that if January and February production figures had been higher than expected that this share price would have already started moving North. Just an opinion. Fils.

[bones698] 01/3/2024 19:43

Swiss Paul
No I highly doubt that, saletta is a complete mess in comparison where this is only a mild one lol. This had an order book and is ramping up production hopefully but having different issues mmaiubg the product in the volumes required.
Some poor management has cost investors here over the last 28 months or so.

Its in. Afar better position that saletta you mentioned but far from plain sailing here either

[amanitaangelicus] 01/3/2024 15:42

Watch the share price ...insiders will know ...'nothing else matters' ... Metal Licker ...

[damayhill] 01/3/2024 11:15

fevertree, your position on the management is very well documented and I respect it, but as I've said in the past, it's the same team that has taken SCE from an incredibly niche, directionless idea with six-figure turnover to one which is winning nine-figure Tier 1 contracts, including replacing the only other supplier. Though the past couple of years have been poorly handled (on that we can agree), I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt - Johnson in particular - and see what transpires over the next couple of quarters.

[fevertreeman] 01/3/2024 11:09

My main concern Damay is the management team. Bundred & Johnson have cratered confidence in the business, and their arrogance is astounding. Rather than showing some degree of caution over the ramp-up, they have gone all-in on their forecasts: forecasts that IMO are back of envelope at best. The fact that the share price is stubbornly below the raise price is disconcerting.

[damayhill] 01/3/2024 10:58

Only 4-5 weeks to wait. Probably the single most important TU in SCE's history. There's a logic to follow.

If they are not to run out of cash and require a further raise then they must achieve close to the £23M revenue projection for 2024.

The £9M (H1) and £14M (H2) split is credible on paper.

Therefore, the £9M has to be achieved or near as damn it. In order for the £9M to be achieved, they need to be reporting around about the £4M mark for Q1.

Q4 2023 average monthly revenues were flat at £1M per month, and so ramp up to £1.2M average monthly sales is the bare minimum requirement (£3.6M). Anything below that is unacceptable. £1.3M average monthly sales (£3.9M) is the requirement. Anything that begins with a 4, I'll be delighted.

If they can demonstrate a Q4 to Q1 ramp up of 30% that gives realistic hope for the simple reason that if they repeat the trick quarter to quarter, that would mean £3.9M, £5.1M in Q2 (=£9M H1), £6.6M in Q3, and £8.6M in Q4 (=£15.2M H2). Whilst it's unlikely to happen in quite such a linear fashion, these are the indicators we must look out for in the April TU.

For me, anything else is irrelevant at the moment.