Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 10/1/2024 07:54

I tend to agree that it's strange that 698 keeps posting his detailed concerns multiple times per day when not a holder. Fair enough the points are reasonable, but he's not buying, why hang around a share you've no plan to have a holding in? I sometimes research a share, join a thread, decide not to buy, post my thoughts/reasons on the thread, and then leave. I might have the share on my watchlist and come back later if something happens, but I don't keep posting the same thoughts again and again in the next interim. Still it's a free country I suppose.

[pinkfoot2] 10/1/2024 07:46

I reckon you sit on this site waiting Bones-not a good look

This company has significant value, as SCE or as a PE target-that’s why I am invested heavily

[bones698] 10/1/2024 07:21

Don't make assumptions it doesn't do you any good pinkfoot.
No hidden agenda just read all the news for the past 2 years and it isn't pretty at all .
Also quite funny on their website it's says profitable from 2022 which if they are lucky might happen in 2024 but going off what they are spending ATM seems quite unlikely . These single point failures are expensive to fix it seems and keep coming back even after they said they are resolved .

Makes interesting reading and explains why the share price is 10p and falling tbh it's a list of missed targets and problems .

Not offering any explanation as to where all the cash has gone in 2 months ?

[pinkfoot2] 10/1/2024 07:00

I wouldn’t be surprised to find you are a disgruntled ex employee with an agenda Bones.

I’m not emotionally attached to this company but I can see huge value here.Look at the sector, product, margin and customer list/order book

[amt] 10/1/2024 05:19

Cyberbub actually best case is they get taken over for 100 million by large manufacturer with deep pockets who have two hundred million to spend on a state of the art Robotic factory. Production costs fall dramatically and the market expands to billions per annum and they become the largest brake manufacturer in the World with a market cap of five billion. The 100 million purchase price would seem cheap as chips and it could be floated off for 20 quid per share. We get 40p for our shares and jobs are created and the UK at last has a big success in the manufacturing sector. Chance about half of one percent but anything unlikely seems possible these days.

[bones698] 10/1/2024 02:49

Fair summary and agree with those odds pretty much cyber . I think the odds of them hitting their revenue target are a bit slimmer than you give them though .
Also worried by the amount of cash used up already the market won't look to kindly on another cash call this year and lose faith in managements statements .

I've always wanted to believe in the story here good product and customer base but making that step up from development mto money making company is a tough one as they are finding out . I think they will make it eventually it's how much damage is done getting there and will shareholders benefit or not

Does anyone have any ideas on how they managed to spend 5 m in 2 months though this seems excessive . They raised 11 m in November (minus costs )and this was down to 6.1m including the raise by end of December. There was probably some residual cash left over from before the raise .

Revenue was flat from October at 1m a month in Nov and Dec so hardly ramping up . I'm finding it hard to get excited about what I've read recently . If anything it poses some worrying questions

[bones698] 09/1/2024 20:58

That's fair enough but single point of failures don't cover installation issues or delays . I'm just saying their recent past track record isn't exactly stellar so I take it with a pinch of salt what CEOs say .
It's a big jump in revenue this year which is good if they hit it I just think they won't so we will have to see how that goes.
Once the installed capacity is up and running and single points of failure overcome or catered for with the capacity then it's all good but we aren't there yet is my point .

Also revenues will have to increase significantly in the second half of the year to meet their target . I just think it's a big ask and they are likely to come unstick again . We will find out who is right but like I have said others thought things were good last year and predicting big things from the share price . Look how wrong the so called ones close to the company were or the resident experts .

I'm up for a debate though and appreciate both sides of the story that's why I'm looking at these . But I am usually on the cautious side when it comes to aim shares as many are failures as investments .

[quemaster] 09/1/2024 17:26

ST said in November.........

"The Company is continuing to install the capacity (capital expenditure of approximately £8m in 2023 and £9m in 2024) required to both meet increasing customer demand and providing the necessary resilience to overcome single points of failure."

They are completing installation of the £50m capacity in 2024 not starting it with the single points of failure having been prioritised, this will make the production line more resilient before mid 2024. Nothing is certain but major hold ups in production should be less likely as time goes by.

[bones698] 09/1/2024 16:24

Pink foot you do know it's 10p a share right so what you say I will pretty much ignore . Your past predictions haven't exactly gone well here. Your one of those who's in love with the company so can't make unbiased predictions and posts.

[amanitaangelicus] 09/1/2024 16:21

Exactly Bones ...they.re assuming all will go swimmingly, equip installed, training sorted , no more probs, products delivered, swamped with new orders ...let.s see.

[pinkfoot2] 09/1/2024 15:51

You do know it only 9 days into their financial year and new capacity is coming on stream??

[bones698] 09/1/2024 15:39

Tend to agree seeing the issues they have had ramping up to a lot less then 24m looks a big ask especially when the equipment hasn't even been installed yet to increase capacity . I also get the feeling they have over played this number and will struggle to hit it . With little faith in their predictions after missing them the last few times land the cash in the bank dropping so fast to 6m already it seems the management haven't learnt and that shareholders are likely to pay for that .

[nchanning] 09/1/2024 10:49

If management have any sense they should have lowballed the forecasts for this year . If they think they will do 30m revenue then guide the brokers to 24m and everyone will be happy with the beat . The only problem is that when you're doing a placing there's some pressure to be ultra optimistic with forecasts to get the placing away so I'm afraid it's most likely going to be squeaky bum time to hit the number again this year

[damayhill] 09/1/2024 07:55

Well, yesterday was a hurdle and we gave it a bit of a clatter but stayed on our feet. Next important milestone is the TU in early April, where I'll be looking for Q1 sales revenue in a £3.75M - £4.2M range. Possibility that we get a further contract announcement between now and then but in terms of sequencing, I'd personally prefer confirmation first that £9m H1 revenue is on track, then further contract announcement.

[bones698] 08/1/2024 23:31

Not disagreeing bagpuss just find broker notes are pretty unreliable and are based on a almost perfect scenario . Tbh if sce did have a perfect scenario I'd expect a higher share price down the line .
Given the last year I think a perfect scenario is far from a given . Funny how agl and sce have followed similar trajectories with very different business models though .
I have watched both for a long time so know them well . Mistakes have been made and now it's how well they'recover and learn from them . I still feel another not nice surprise is due here though but longer term as long as they can deliver on time the prospects look sound . Having said that people have said that at various times over the years and the share price is near lows so I'll keep my powder dry a while longer here I think

The chart isn't looking very appealing and a big turning point looks a while away yet . I have a sneaky feeling another TU might come in the coming months with news not as promising as hoped but that's just my feeling for now. .

[supernumerary] 08/1/2024 22:45

pf - thanks

[bagpuss67] 08/1/2024 21:05

Bones. They have taken the time to build a model and applied some assumptions. It's a helpful "what if" and shows a possible path to those sort of share prices. Of course, it's just a scenario but it's not totally far fetched. At least this company has no shortage of demand. I believe they will get there on the execution and I think their customers do too.

[pinkfoot2] 08/1/2024 20:48

Super

OEM contracts tend to be for the life of the model, plus runoffs, typically 6 years.They don’t normally like sole global supply deals, preferring dual source.

I asked two questions

-about cost downs.None
-single or dual source-single

That’s it-so I’m relying on the integrity of the BOD and Nomad analysts for quantum

[bones698] 08/1/2024 20:41

Bagpuss I thought you would know better than to go off broker notes as what to expect for a shareprice ,nearly every aim share and small cap has broker notes massively above their current share price and they were there when they had much higher prices too . It's a bit like the experts telling you to buy when infact they are selling in the background .

Anyway the market didn't make much of the update today even with the promise of another contract to come . They want to see revenue increasing and getting to break even before they will rerate this . Bit of a slow burner then as another update will be a few months away

[supernumerary] 08/1/2024 19:17

quemaster - we're talking about years after some of these contracts were signed. Pre-release I could understand, but once the vehicles are out in the market, why not take advantage of having the best brake discs in the world in your car? Would it really have been so difficult to agree a 12-month pre-release embargo, with free discussion thereafter?

[supernumerary] 08/1/2024 19:13

Not clear I'm afraid - was there anything else you asked about the contracts that was/was not answered and that you can reveal to those less well-informed than yourself?

[pinkfoot2] 08/1/2024 18:39

Super

I specifically asked about ‘cost downs’ last Placing time-the answer was no cost downs.Clearly I wouldn’t see the contracts

[quemaster] 08/1/2024 18:36

ST have said one of the reasons OEMs don't want to name suppliers as it can steel their thunder when the vehicle is launched, the exceptions to this were Aston martin and Koenigsegg who were happy to let their brands be named in the contact RNS.