Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[geko5trade] 12/2/2024 13:30

Ouch, on some volume. I can't understand defense of management here. Surely even die hard supporters of them must see they have to take responsibility and go. If they keep missing then dilution will be endless. Really frustrating.

[bagpuss67] 12/2/2024 13:00

Fair amount of selling. Not looking good.

[fevertreeman] 12/2/2024 12:07

The cash position remains a big issue - many of us are concerned that Maddock, who talks a good game, may have misread the cash burn requirements, either through reliance on Johnsonspeak or insufficient detailed knowledge of the business. Having refused to dial back revenue expectations for the current year (a big error in my view) Johnson has tied both him and Maddock to the mast, and frankly she should have pushed back bloody hard, and clearly didnt.

[fevertreeman] 12/2/2024 12:02

Trek3, prima facie it ticks all the turnaround boxes except for one glaring omission -quality of management - which is the crucial ingredient in any turnaround. Marktes are littered with companies with great products but rubbish management.

This is currently exactly the situation at SCE. Bundred & Johnson took the company as far as they could, but frankly the last 2 years have shown their limitations from Bundred's bluster, obfuscation, and 'capture' by management through to Johnson's antipathy to shareholders, woeful approach to communications, refusal to accept responsibility for the disasters of last 18 months, and lack of grip generally This forum has a number of highly professional, highly informed individuals who want the company to succeed. But the questions raised about the competency of the chair and Ceo continue to be raised. Lets face it without a CEO with the right skill sets, the turnaround could take forever. If the next update does not show the progress that Johnson has been trailing and we have more excuses about points of failure etc, then the time will be fast approaching where he has to step aside.

[trek3] 12/2/2024 11:39

Aman, agree with assessment, if you were looking
for a turnaround play, it ticks all the boxes,
low share float, small m/c, niche market, one
competitor, not scrabbling about for customers,
based in a stable country, if they get the
production up to speed to match orders, then
you`re looking at a different company.

[amanitaangelicus] 12/2/2024 09:20

Bones ...it.s in their own hands. Should be a doddle. It.s not as if they.re struggling for sales which is a way bigger problem, far from it. Should be straight forward, Gann sheet job, with expert consultants employed. Not bldy rocket science. Hope the ii.s stay loyal.

[bones698] 11/2/2024 03:01

Some good posts food to see some debate and not the usual one sided case as happens quite often .
There is a lack of clarity from management here on the issues and the steps taken and if they have been resolved or not . Communication is abysmal is an understatement even the website is very uncooperative for investors and investor relations .
Not for the first time I have seen technical people running a company and taken the science upto the point of commercialisation only for things to go badly wrong when they approach the real world and manufacturing .

The comment from an ex employee wether true or not certainly points to issues along these very lines and from the performance rings quite true .

I also note pinkfoot sudden Absence although I'm sure he's still reading the thread is probably decided to take a step back as his comments haven't been reflected in the shareprice and performance of the management team here .

I await the revenue figures in a few months time which I think will be quite low as it will be later this year the new furnaces come into effect . In Nov and Dec they were at 1.15m per month so will be interesting to see where they are at now and if any more info is given out on production issues being resolved . Even if they are at this stage it doesn't mean the new furnaces will come online and operate effectively straight away later this year though .

If they have managed to increase output slightly to 1.3-1.4m it would be a good start at least .

I don't share the view and ii is selling from watching the trades and how they operate it doesn't appear to be the case .

The cash position is still a major concern for me having blown around 7m in a few months . Whilst some was expected this figure seems very high and left only 5m in the bank as of last statement .

It also brings in another possible concern that the next results might not get signed off given the losses and remaining cash . As some will be aware to continue on a going concern basis they need to show they can continue for 12 months for them to get signed off .

For me I can see another fund raise coming and that why the share price continues to drop m if this is the case I expect to see the drop accelerate when they approach the city and word gets out .

There was comment of another deal being announced which might lift the share price but given the order book size already the market isn't attaching much value to this so maybe a muted response even to that .

The focus is now on can they deliver on revenues and break even before cash runs out . Until a clearer picture happens a cash call is a big concern imo

[amt] 10/2/2024 07:51

Reading back through earlier reports they were scheduling 50m capacity in 2023, now its mid 2024.
So they lost a year.
In terms of production they have scaled back from about 30m to 23m in 2024.

[amanitaangelicus] 08/2/2024 14:21

Trek ...i like gaps too ...need some decent update to get us to the gap. Should fly then. This will move upwards quickly, if decent news appears.

[amt] 08/2/2024 12:02

More like, give us 9 months to get rigged up for those particular disks and we will see if we can squeeze in your order. Longterm though we would be delighted to have your business back but costs and prices have gone up a lot in the meantime.

[taperkick] 08/2/2024 11:47

I don't buy this view that contracts are safe because it's too hard for the OEM to go elsewhere.

"Hi, is that Brembo? We've been let down by a supplier...that's right...can you make us some ceramic discs for a Porsche XYZ?"

"No problem, how many do you want?"

[vaston] 08/2/2024 10:31

SYME IS NOW READY TO FLY

[trek3] 08/2/2024 10:28

Aman, I agree the long term chart is dismal, but when
you factor in that this company is in recovery mode, and
then you look at that gap, it`s a compelling insight into
the future. I`m a big fan of gaps, but they must also be
part of the ongoing story.

[fevertreeman] 08/2/2024 10:02

Damay,

You make very valid points about Johnson & Bundred taking this business from a tiny outfit thro to the current stage. However, for the last 2 years just at the point of significant inflection, both have been found severely wanting as a leadership team.

Bundred should announce that he is stepping down at the AGM, and I hope that they are doing something to get a heavyweight replacement in for him, preferably with relevant international experience. The exec team is still very under-powered and function-lite for a business at a crucial stage in its development. Still very unclear who has exec responsibility for many nmission-critical areas.
Strategy: Johnson
Finance: Maddocks
Sales & Marketing: ?
Operations: Easton
Innovation & Development:?
Talent Management:?


Rewatching the performance of Bundred/Johson (Maddock for time off hook) in the Hardman video sesh from Jan, & came away shaking my head in disbelief at parts of their performance. Bundred needs to go, he's clearly incapable of accepting things have gone badly wrong on his watch; we're beyond the point where his blustering works, and some of his responses were laughable. Am sure he did a great job as the company grew from those early stages, but the facts show that he's performed disastrously as the chair, charged with holding exec to account and watching over shareholders interests.

Johnson's comments about being boxed in by the customers, were shocking! In effect he was appeared to be admitting was that a big part of the reason why they have missed the reves targets was that the customers had them over a barrel, and so they just agreed with the numbers from the customers - a sort of hit and hope strategy. These appear to have translated straight through into the official market forecasts that analysts were given. He did not address any of the bigger issues about how to build a world class management infrastructure beyond the stuff about replacing ops managers.....Soworts of all worlds - he missed/ignored the issues on the shop floor until it was too late, and yet doesnt seem to have a clue about what strategic resources are required to ensure that the group develops rapidly into a world-class engineering business. Hence why sadly it could well be the case that the best solution is that this company gets folded into a larger organisation that can truly give it the resources it needs.

[amanitaangelicus] 08/2/2024 10:00

Trek ...hope you.re correct...but...a/ Small aim companies - forget TA unless there.s been an obvious improvement in something.b/ The long term graph shape looks like death.c/ A vast % of small aim shares rarely escape the need for more cash -usually because they.re in the early stages of development -non existent/low revenues. The funding goes from normal placings,to convi death spiral, to warrants, to death ...This however, is a genuinely decent recovery play. Why? Moat ...no real competition in the UK, good tech etc.We wont know anything of real significance until the prodn figs are released.The insiders will know first - it is aim after all. Expect a little tick up on consecutive days. This however, might not be enough initially to counter an ii iceberg selling tranches .We live in hope.

[trek3] 08/2/2024 09:20

Been watching SCE for a while now, last year was bad, no doubt,
but for anyone interested in charts, have a look at the one
year candlestick chart, what you will see is a large gap between
13-25, as gaps go it`s beauty, fairly recent so should get filled.
How long will it take, that`s the question.

[amanitaangelicus] 08/2/2024 08:16

This is Aim. Company insiders lurk on many aim boards. It.s what they do. Narrative control. Here, you just need to look at the share price There is clearly an ii slowly offloading stock. Tis what it is. What an order book! Mmmm...

[bagpuss67] 08/2/2024 07:32

Super. No. I'm an FCA, FABRP, a finacial advisory partner at a large firm and have an MA in Engineering. It's more that when he goes quiet, it has in the past, been because he has been taken inside

[quemaster] 08/2/2024 07:00

What information do we have from recent communications regarding the manufacturing process?

We know the biggest problem with the furnaces appears to be resolved but this was followed by single points of failure bringing the production line to a halt, the reason given was that the machinery had never been used before in the way it was as the process is unique to ST so there was no historical data to work from, this resulted in breakdowns as how hard they can work the equipment and when to service it was not fully understood.

What has been done to try to resolve these issues?

Stephen Easton was appointed as COO from SGL Carbon and managers assigned to take control of sections of production. Single points of failure have been prioritised for expansion spending with £50m capacity due to be in place by the middle of this year. It should be the case that lessons learned and more capacity will make holdups in production less likely as time goes by. With the US OEMs engineering teams being involved in resolving production issues and still awarding contracts it would appear they expect ST to get on top the issues as well.

I appreciate the views of the more negative posters as it provides balance to the likes of myself who have been overly optimistic, but feel some here would be happy to see a lower share price and a better entry point.

[supernumerary] 07/2/2024 23:42

Why? Have you been relying on him for advice? Possibly not the best strategy in the light of events.

Let's face it we all knew the price was going down - inexorable rule of AIM - in the absence of news the share price will fall. The only question has ever been how far? If they manage to maintain their news blackout until April, where would say a halfpenny a week - not much in the grand scheme of things - take us?

A corollary to that rule is that a long drawn out fall will induce speculation, which will attract shorts and traders looking to buy as cheaply as possible, who will amuse themselves by spreading fud.

Incidentally, apropos nothing at all, I see the (unverified) whinge on that employee site has changed. Who was it before? Ashia somebody - MacDonald? some such improbable combination - has now become Philip Blakemore, and all the names and gory details have been removed...

[bagpuss67] 07/2/2024 22:08

PinkF very quiet.Always unnerves me..

[damayhill] 07/2/2024 19:08

quazie, yep I understand that and I respect your view. As it happens I run a £30m t/o business so very much in the same ballpark, albeit in an entirely different sector.

There is no doubt that the senior team has made mistakes over the past two years. However, some seem to forget that it's the same team of KJ/DB (and I am absolutely not an apologist for either, far from it) that has taken SCE from a £150k t/o idea, working with a small number of incredibly niche customers at tiny volumes and also dabbling in miltary/defence, to what is an incredibly focused company with forecast £20m+ t/o this year, having broken into a previously monopolistic market, not only winning nine-figure Tier 1 contracts to a total of a c.£400m order book but also winning them off the only competitor.

My point is that there is certainly more than one way to paint the Kevin Johnson story.

[quazie12] 07/2/2024 18:44

And it will not take much more in the way of failures for order books to dry up, contracts terminated then the game is up. For me the CEO is out of his depth and has screwed the execution up. Let's see if he proves me wrong. Put it this way, there is clearly no confidence from institutions, the market or insiders to put their hands in their pocket and start buying