Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[konradpuss] 28/8/2019 19:38

Some 'snap back'.

The pound might get stronger as a BREXIT deal is done.

So maybe the bid might come sooner rather than later.

[essentialinvestor] 23/8/2019 09:07

What a difference a week makes ).

[konradpuss] 19/8/2019 18:23

Well the share price is up today probably on the 'read across' from the take over bid for Greene King from a Hong Kong property company.

[loafofbread] 19/8/2019 15:56

Still buying the UT at volume.

[konradpuss] 13/8/2019 20:06

Well Mr Lee is a very bright man. He is probably looking at the weak pound and thinking there will be a BREXIT deal and the Elizabeth Line will eventually open.

He will however be thinking that the world has not had a recession for quite a few years and perhaps we are due one.

I think as the company is not borrowed up to the hilt, he will wait.

[essentialinvestor] 12/8/2019 22:12

FT article over the weekend on prime New York commercial property now
suffering from retail sector woes. Increasing vacancies even in popular
tourist areas.

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2019 15:26

Well that's not nice to hear.

[konradpuss] 09/8/2019 15:09

Essential, a mate of myine knows the owner of a wine bar just off Golden Square. Shaftesbury are the landlords. You probably know the place, it has been there for ever. He is nearly at a point of handing the keys back. Rent, UBR etc. etc.

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2019 14:23

I used to frequent many of the areas they now own back in the day,
always an alive vibe and buzz about the place.
It's Emmerdale and a nice cup of tea now of an evening ).
Party days long since past.

[konradpuss] 09/8/2019 06:37

Essential, not angry just realistic and expressing my views on the over paid under performing management - well I suppose they are no different to most public company management teams!

They are basically rent collectors. When (if) Lee finally bids, he will slash costs and move the management of the portfolio to his team that manage his Langham Estate.

Loaf, I think you are right, the spat with the board is a precursor to a bid.

[loafofbread] 08/8/2019 22:32

My thoughts are this.

Lee has repositioned his holding in April 19 to a more beneficial tax haven.

During the Arab spring, Greek meltdown, you name it, just about everyone with any assets moved their wealth to London.

$/£ continues to favour foreign purchase of UK assets.

Hong kong stability very much in question.

Spat with BOD a classic miss direction and excuse to trigger bid.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2019 20:40

You sound angry, why?.


If given the opportunity intend to add a few lower down.

[konradpuss] 08/8/2019 20:07

Essential, you have been taken in by their blurb - it is absolutely about how much we can extract from xyz retailer.

The Grosvenor and Howard DeWalden say similar, sorry it is bullhsit.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2019 19:51

Appreciate the retail environment, however their distinct geographic focus
is in areas with huge visitor and tourist numbers. They also appear to
manage their locations to attract a diverse retail offering.
It's not just a question of ..how much can we extract from xzy retailer.

However. SHB are not immune from downturns, NAV fell by well over 40%
during the financial crisis. I don't think we are looking at a repeat,
however 15-25% NAV falls would not surprise me.

[konradpuss] 08/8/2019 19:25

Essential, I think the real problem in a micro sense with Shaftesbury is that they have chased rents up to such a high level in respect of the retail element of their portfolio that the tenants just say "too much".

The good thing is that the pound is weak and the Elizabeth line will eventually open. Oh! and the company might get bid for.

[konradpuss] 08/8/2019 16:50

Essential, the full context being that it was not the current management team. It was Peter Levy and Jonathan Lane.

These people retired a while back. The current management have just carried forward the original master strategy in a very workman like manner on excessive salaries.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2019 16:02

It's the management team that put the portfolio together and set the strategy.
I'm not defending pay levels, but perhaps some context.

[loafofbread] 08/8/2019 15:49

Agree.

Someone happy to pick up some decent amounts in the EOD Auctions.

[konradpuss] 07/8/2019 15:28

Loaf, Lee purchased at an average of circa £9.00 and Norge Fund the stake they bought from Investco a bit more I think.

If there is a bid, Lee gets the Soho estate and Norge gets the remainder.The current over paid and self serving management get nice new gleaming P.45's!

The bid, to succeed must have a one in front of it (he says hopefully!).

[loafofbread] 07/8/2019 14:54

Risk/reward is to good not to buy in at £7.50 today.

[loafofbread] 06/8/2019 16:36

When not if?

NAV £10 a share.

Paying debt at approx 3%, BIDCO would have no problem with that. see below.

Norway SW Fund have 25% and Lee 26%.

£/$ down from 1.40 to 1.20 and probably down to 1.05/1.10 by Oct 31st.

So a foreign buyer has his money worth 25% more and the share price is 35% below NAV.

Very rare to have such a combination of events imho.

[essentialinvestor] 06/8/2019 15:37

What's going on? - Intu share price meltdown (chalk and cheese but impacts sentiment). 31 October/general election, possible recession in 2020...

SHB is not immune from a wider downturn as a look at the 2009 results will clearly show. They were exceptional circumstances and not expecting a repeat.
However, asset prices do correct every so often, even the best ones.

Bid possibility in the background imv.

[essentialinvestor] 06/8/2019 15:27

Added this morning.