Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 18/5/2020 17:13

I'm sure he will be happy to tell you what he's had for breakfast as well ).

[mtsblogs] 18/5/2020 16:59

Does anyone have Sammy's email? Worth dropping a line to ask what he plans to do... Never know, may reply!

[konradpuss] 15/5/2020 09:47

I wonder if Sammy is leveraged against his stock holding. O.K. he is a billionaire, however at his buy in price of circa £8.88 he must be hurting - it might be on paper only. Who knows.

My instinct is a rights issue on the way and it will be arranged to exclude Sammy.

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2020 12:17

I thought under £5, as previously mentioned and here we are.


Any potential equity raise is becoming increasingly dilutative to NAV as the share price falls.

[essentialinvestor] 13/5/2020 22:00

Nick, it's a fair assessment and would agree.
Might make for a tasty recovery play at some point.

[konradpuss] 13/5/2020 21:29

nick, the management are over paid with almost no 'skin in the game'.

Will they burn the midnight oil and go out on a limb - not a chance.

We will get a flavour next week of how bad it is.

If I were a betting man, there would be short odds on a rights issue.

It's the safe thing to do and it dilutes Sammy, that is if he does not get a chance to subscribe or if he does he choses not to.

A self-serving management who are just coat tailing the clever people who formed the company.

[nickrl] 13/5/2020 20:51

Essential they are out on limb with there estate highly leveraged to the tourist and theatre trade neither of which i going to get going anytime soon and when they do it will be at depressed levels so they will need to cut tenants hefty rent reductions to over the next 12-18mths min just to keep them in place but bound to plenty of voids.

Results due out next week so lets see if they are prepared to lay bare the challenges of being a landlord of food & beverage outlets

[essentialinvestor] 13/5/2020 15:14

Sell off gathering pace atm.

[konradpuss] 07/5/2020 19:40

Essential, a very good question.

I think that I always saw this share as a 'trade'. Buy sub £8.88 and sell above. Well that is out the window now.

I think the interesting think is Sammy and the Norwegians.

I don't think either have sold down, however I have not checked recently.

I always thought Sammy would bid with some sort of side deal with the Norwegians.
Well maybe that is off the menu.

Until I see some numbers and how many 'to let' boards go up I am staying out.

Once I know more I will put a number on where I would buy in.

[essentialinvestor] 07/5/2020 17:10

konrad, did not realise you were in the industry!, I will shut up then ).

No issue raising funds here imv, at least I would hope not.

The gearing gives a kicker to NAV falls on the downside obvs.

Any equity raise may also potentially weigh on NAV with the shares trading down here.


Are you looking to buy back in at a particular price ?, Thanks.

[konradpuss] 07/5/2020 17:04

Essential, I am not as pessimistic as you.

It is all guess work right now. O.K. you will have a great increase in vacancies. Also the reversion in the portfolio that the management bang on about is dust.

Now how much will yields go out? That depends on the covenant strength to some degree.
This is where I am not so optimistic as I think they have many 'unusual' covenants.
I bet very few blue chip occupiers.

This could be good and bad. Some might have reserves, some might not.

My view in the round a 25% kick in the pants by the valuers (and I am one unfortunately!)over say a year or so.

[essentialinvestor] 07/5/2020 16:32

10 June for the H1 results, may paint a vulgar picture...

[essentialinvestor] 06/5/2020 14:31

I attempted to guesstimate a % NAV fall we may see here over the next 18 months or so. 45-55% falls would be my best guess. While that may seem too cautious,
their impossible to replicate portfolio looks right in the firing line of current events. All very much a case of IMV only, DYOR etc - hold a very small amount, just for transparency.

[hindsight] 06/5/2020 14:23

Personally pencilled in rents averaging 50% of before when things open until immunity or vaccine. Will mean running at small loss and have the lockdown loss.

[essentialinvestor] 06/5/2020 14:19

Good call.

Until early this January, yes it was arguably priced for perfection.

[konradpuss] 06/5/2020 13:23

It is so hard to tell the financial standing of their tenants.

It will be interesting to see who pays and who does not pay the June quarter rents.

I had thought for a while this company was priced for perfection.

I sold after the valuation dip on their Covent Garden J.V.

O.K. the portfolio is unique however a vacant unit of three is a vacant unit.

You also face the valuation 'profession' kicking the yield to bits.

I still think it is a great portfolio mind.

[essentialinvestor] 06/5/2020 13:15

Thought under £5 possible? - and agree if they want to raise cash, now is the time.

If wider markets take another tumble it may get more expensive and quickly.

[its the oxman] 06/5/2020 12:33

Agree leisure exposure means this could have further to fall and if money raise is required then sooner the better. Watching 450p not impossible here.

[essentialinvestor] 06/5/2020 10:01

They talk endlessly about their unique, impossible to replicate portfolio,
however if their restaurants and shops are currently closed...

Tourism, which they benefit from, may take a good 12 months plus to recover.

Another headwind is their larger retail units, which are now less in favour.

Other than that, I like SHB longer term!.

[konradpuss] 05/5/2020 05:32

As the management have very, very little 'skin in the game' and they would love to dilute Sammy, I think a rights issue could well be on the cards.

[nickrl] 04/5/2020 21:37

Essential with 224 restaurants in the estate, tourism looking minimal for rest of 2020, office working significantly modified your absolutely spot on that SHB are vulnerable if the new normal comes to pass. There one of the few still not to put out a C19 update now and there the first propco to drop below the late March low.

Interims shown as 19th May so all will be revealed

[essentialinvestor] 04/5/2020 16:32

The medium term NAV and income hit here could be more significant than consensus estimate?.

[essentialinvestor] 22/4/2020 12:50

Possibility of an equity raise?...

[hindsight] 22/4/2020 10:39

nickrl, yes time to run the numbers. But a model is only as good as the data put into it. For instance from the Prof at Imperial today and Roche ceo we have rather a wide vaccine forecast date. There maybe some axe grinding on both sides

[nickrl] 22/4/2020 09:59

hindsight, its the QE effect that keeps me in this casino currently but working out exactly who benefits, how and when is the challenge but we have plenty of time on hands to run the numbers!!