Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 24/6/2020 13:50

CAPCO share price coming off sharply.

[konradpuss] 23/6/2020 15:31

Essential, I certainly will. Don't hold your breath!

I was very lucky to get out at the level I did. It really was luck more than judgement. I just felt they were priced for perfection back in November last year.

I sound like a real bear, however I would be very careful of DLN. The plus side is that they are no geared much. I just worry about the vacancies coming.

[essentialinvestor] 23/6/2020 15:11

konrad, please post when you buy back in, providing you do.

Hoped to pick up some DLN lower down, hesitated with a purchase in mid May.

[konradpuss] 22/6/2020 19:43

Essential, I am sure sooner would have been the best bet. Oh! that is what I bet on!

I am almost certain they will raise some new equity now.

Bicknell will want to do what he did to Sammy. A nice private placing to dilute Cap Co.

[konradpuss] 22/6/2020 19:09

I think the share price is flagging a disaster of a June quarter day in my humble.

[essentialinvestor] 22/6/2020 13:57

IF SHB issue equity at some point to navigate this crisis, it will be interesting
to see if sooner, rather than later was the better option (my guessestimate is sooner).

Multiple companies used the recent equity market bounce to raise cash.



* the FT article does refer to this Wednesday, apologies that was my misinterpretation.

[essentialinvestor] 22/6/2020 13:07

Ah right, this Wednesday.

[nickrl] 22/6/2020 13:01

Essential 24th June is rent quarter day when demands issued should be settled. Expect RNS's to follow later in the week into next week The smart landlords will have been proactive with all there tenants from last qtr and the RNS's will hopefully be transparent about what accommodations they have come to so there can be better visibility on the impact to income over the next 6-18mths.

[essentialinvestor] 22/6/2020 08:07

Article in this weekend's FT referring to 1 July as watershed Wednesday
with some property companies expecting as little as 10% of rents.

[konradpuss] 21/6/2020 20:01

Deadly, I so agree about the funny money. What an experiment! It will end badly, mark my words.

Nickrl, I wonder if Norge would push for such a merger? I guess they would to cut management expenses, however Bicknell will resist if he is not made CEO.

Cap Co will not let that happen as they are probably in the better position so deadlock.

[deadly nightshade] 21/6/2020 16:03

Ok Konrad best of luck, I like a bit of healthy debate as you should always respect opinions. I do agree with you in the sense that in the next 6 months there should be more chance of the share price going down then up. Just hope any storms are weathered and what comes out the other side is better then before. Years ago all we had every decade was the usual boom and bust, but since the last credit crash world governments have down everything in their powers to pump printed money into economy and crash interest rates which has pushed asset prices up. With everything linked now like never before could world governments allow everything to crash like it use to in good old days or will everything carry on being propped up on funny money??

[essentialinvestor] 21/6/2020 16:00

Main concern in terms of sentiment is will virus cases begin increasing again
as we approach winter.

Hopefully this will not be the case, no one in their right mind wants that scenario.

Unfortunately if you take an example of Florida, which went gung ho on reopening,
virus numbers appear to be rapidly increasing again.

SHB outlets significantly benefit from tourism. So this is a little more complex
than an ordinary cyclical recovery.

[konradpuss] 21/6/2020 15:52

Oh! and where do I see Shaftesbury in three years time.

No idea right now.

It could range from a take over to a discounted rights issue or heaven knows a V shaped recovery with those reversions intact and Bicknell getting himself a big bonus!

You pay your money you take your pick.

[konradpuss] 21/6/2020 15:49

Deadly, Cap Co are neither wrong or right currently.

They have a non-exec. who was a very important and long serving director of Shaftesbury so he will have a good insight although historic.

Cap Co also have a 'read across' from their Covent Garden Estate.

I like a good margin of safety and I cannot work out if it is there right now.

Ask me in six months. I might not get in at the bottom then mind.

[deadly nightshade] 21/6/2020 15:37

Also nick/Konrad what do you make of capc valuation of buying into shb. A lot of people say shopping / retail is hard to price due to lack of sales but by capc buying in the have nailed a price here so are you saying capc and their dd are wrong? Remember they bought their share right in the midst of covid some were aware of current situation

[deadly nightshade] 21/6/2020 15:25

Konrad where do you see shb in 3 years time? Surely if this catastrophe you are predicting does come then capc would be looking for a possible all share merger with some Megga assets?

[deadly nightshade] 21/6/2020 15:21

Nick it's swings and roundabouts 12 years ago when I was renting the tennets could call the shots as rents were low with plenty of choice, fast forward a couple of years and supply dried up and the demand force rent prices through the roof. It's the same with employment at the moment a lot of firms have had to make do with having to employ some right idiots due to shortage of labour, if this mass unemployment starts then firm will be able to cherry pick better qualified workers. The decent firm ride these peaks and troughs out and the badly run ones go to the wall

[konradpuss] 21/6/2020 14:30

nickr1 you make an interesting point about recognising the income however not collecting it.

After September when they can then take tenants to court, I wonder what our illustrious audit profession will have to say about this.

My view is that if the rent is not pursued then they will qualify the accounts if it is not written off. I am not an accountant mind!

[nickrl] 21/6/2020 14:14

Deadly, for what its worth i see rents being bashed down across the board with NAV down and LTV's being breached but i also feel that currently (how long isn't clear) lenders will roll over and do a deal potentially on lower rates so they don't end up with a load of assets that would only serve to collapse the market further.

Furthermore IMO the govt are deliberately aiding and abetting this outcome with the inability to take action over unpaid rents along with plenty of spiel about landlords and tenants need to work this out ie cut a deal (see the Code of Conduct issued by Dept o BEIS on Friday along with banks being told to assist landlords.

Where does this leave SHB - again imo they will have to go down the turnover rent option with a low base if they want to keep the estate occupied and lets be clear that is alot more appealing to draw in the tourists/daytrippers than a ton of empty premises and they will be leveraged to the recovery and inflation (if it comes). Actually, looking at the interim report in more detail, rather than the headlines, i feel they recognise the severity of the situation and 'sound' like there being more proactive with tenants as well as accepting that they won't recover a lot of March/Junes rent. This is a more realistic position that others are taking who suggest they will recover lost rent which im not so sure will be the outcome but it allows them to recognise the income albeit not the cash so won't wash forever.

[deadly nightshade] 21/6/2020 07:52

Yes some shops will go bust that's a fact of life but new things emerge and the thing here is a lot of the assets are not multiple shops they are unique business's and new ideas will be invented. The doom mongers have been moaning about property being over valued for years but as I say it never goes down longterm. Interest rates are next to nothing shed loads of money have never been easier to borrow. Debt appears to be very easy to refinance. You only have to look at what our government are borrowing, if you looked at the bond market the other day investors were actually paying the government to lend money to the government.

[konradpuss] 21/6/2020 06:19

Currently I do not have a definitive until there is more information on vacancy levels as to an entry level.

I also think their reversions will disappear.

As to things will look cheap ten years on, you will probably be right.

Not so for shopping centres over the last ten years mind.

It's a great portfolio however it is geared and in my view a large number of vacancies are coming.

[deadly nightshade] 20/6/2020 21:19

Konrad out of interest what's your potential buy in price valuation on this then? Considering you say you buy below nav and this is already trading well below nav.

[deadly nightshade] 20/6/2020 21:18

Konrad out of interest what's your potential buy in price valuation on this then? Considering you say you buy below nav and this is already trading well below nav