Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[konradpuss] 06/7/2020 20:52

Well I am not generally a trader, however I have been in Shaftesbury in the past.

I find it very difficult to trade succesfully.

It's like anything, if you devote enough time to it you will become good at it.

I like buying something where I think in three to five years time it will be worth much more - honest management with a big stake in the company and a good, simple business.

Oh! and very little gearing.

Not much that fits that bill in the property sector.

[essentialinvestor] 06/7/2020 20:02

Accept that, however I'm also looking at this sector from a trading perspective.

Not attempting to time one large buy at the most opportune time,
as find that impossible.

IF we get a large second COVID wave coming in to autumn/winter,
some sector constituencies will be hit hard, however that applies to multiple stocks outside this sector.

DLN once again bounced from the 2790/28.00 area, missed that one again.

[konradpuss] 06/7/2020 19:45

Essential, I must sound like a permabear, however you should try and get some prospective.

Take a trip to Soho and have a walk around - say next Monday.

I think you might just put your technical analysis away and stay on the side lines for a while.

As I always say, I might be wrong mind!

There is an old Chinese proverb which goes "he who looks around sees more clearly".

[essentialinvestor] 06/7/2020 17:44

If we can can break through the 5.50 area then perhaps on to 5.70/5,
otherwise a drift back to 5.25/30, where there has been some support?.

[essentialinvestor] 06/7/2020 07:42

LAND may have put in a low?.

[nickrl] 05/7/2020 21:44

Konradpuss irony is the mainline trains are empty currently so best time to go is now but amongst my peer group there is certainly a fair amount of caution around using public transport and busy places. That said the youngsters were out in force in the pubs last night so it maybe a slow start but barring a London outbreak trade will probably pick up over the weeks ahead. Ultimately though without overseas tourists there footfall is going to be down and that will weigh on tenants ability to pay full whack for next 12-18mths.

[konradpuss] 05/7/2020 17:42

Foot fall numbers for the West End yesterday will not help Shaftesbury.

I think people will stay local for quite some time.

As a person who is sceptical on masks, I will not be travelling in by train to the West End.

[essentialinvestor] 04/7/2020 13:07

Double bottom potential @ £4.80 approx?.

Had a nice result on SREI this week for a quick 10% gain.

[konradpuss] 03/7/2020 18:16

Land Sec. - 30% of the retail rents collected - 60% of all rents collected for the third quarter.

I wonder if Bicknell is losing any sleep over the rent collection at Shaftesbury?

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

I know I keep having a go at him, however I think he deserves it. A self serving executive who has done nothing extra ordinary.

[nickrl] 01/7/2020 21:31

Konrad they've already warned that June rental won't be any better than March which was around 25% on retail from recollection and potentially worse. All the feedback indicates central London is down on footfall although whether the reopening of hospitality will provide more support we will see.

[konradpuss] 01/7/2020 18:35

Essential, Hammerson have collected 16% of their third quarter rent so far.

I bet the chief executive sits in his office all day going over why he sold all their office properties and why he did not accept that bid from the 'frogs'.

He needs to go ASAP.

I wonder if rent collection at Shaftesbury is going any better?

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2020 23:44

Some support around 5.85 atm, less sure how long that may last.

[essentialinvestor] 29/6/2020 09:59

Would guess it would lead to a polarisation in London commercial office,
between A class developments and the rest?.

Most of the people I know enjoyed working from home in the initial weeks
and are now looking forward to get back to office life. From a socio economic
viewpoint it's an interesting trend to watch, besides having implications for investors.

[konradpuss] 27/6/2020 17:53

Essential, I might be wrong, however I think you are just too early.

Currently, there is a 'dead cat bounce' going on in my humble opinion.

City office rents will fall and yields will move out - I don't care much about the cost of money in respect of factoring that in to my reasoning.

It's the structural obsolescence of offices (especially City offices), its the chance coming (well its arrived) in home working. Just read the Guardian article on line today about this. Oh! and the volume of vacant space. There will be a time, not now in my opinion.

Now I am not completely bearish about property. I think residential (that is a big wide asset class) will do O.K.

I think PCL (Prime Central London) will continue to under perform, however much of the rest is investable if you like that sort of thing.

[essentialinvestor] 27/6/2020 17:36

Helical can be very volatile share price wise, I could make a stronger buy case around 2.70ish type.

Besides COVID the odds of a no deal EU exit are now rising - this is not a
political point, I'm mentioning it re short term sentiment which can impact sector
share prices.

[konradpuss] 27/6/2020 17:23

Essential, at Helical the rental income is £31 million and they say the ERV is £50 million.

Run your numbers on no reversion and see how it looks.

As an aside I worked for the family that sold Mike Slade the quoted shell in the eighties. It was a steel stock holding company and some employee (I think a driver) had run off with the cheque book and had almost bankrupted the company.

Mike Slade then did some amazing deals with shirt buttons. It's what they should be doing now - cash light - savy heavy!

[essentialinvestor] 27/6/2020 15:04

Added a few Helical yesterday on the intraday dip.

Would like a few TRY, however not at a price I would add atm.

DLN hit my buy price but hesitated again, last time that happened it proved costly
as it raced up past £32.


Konrad, noted that price, never say never etc.

It looks like autumn, winter may be very ugly with a resurgent COVID, hopefully
wrong on that. Let's hope the Oxford vaccine trial is successful, data due around late August time, based on the larger vaccinated group.

[nickrl] 27/6/2020 09:09

Konradpuss rent reduction is inevitable and i would suggest SHB will have to transfer its retail/F&B tenants to turnover rent to keep the units occupied. This will then allow then to benefit from any upturn in due course but as to how that is used to assess ERV and valuations is for cleverer people than me.

[konradpuss] 27/6/2020 04:17

hindsight, it comes from 'my knowledge of the market' as my old valuation lecturer used to say.

It reflects the coming reduction in rent roll and the lack of reversion plus a possible reduction in ERV.

This is really a stab in the dark but I hope a quite educated one. O.K. quite a negative one as well.

[hindsight] 26/6/2020 20:56

Konradpus, where does the 6% come from ? Risk free (gilts) have shifted from 1.25% to 0.5% 30 year so 3% is now paying 2.5% credit risk vs 1.75%, a 40% increase

[konradpuss] 26/6/2020 18:06

How about a nightmare take?

Now let's start by looking at the income in the last full years account - £98.00 million. That is before Bicknell and co. get their 'hands in the till'. Now how much does it cost to send out a few rent demands?

The capitalisation yield they used for the NAV was 3% (roughly).

Now let's sprinkle a bit of reality in the new 'virus' world here.

£98.00 million x 6% = Capital value £1.6333 billion Oh! less the debt - 979 billion =
.654 billion.

Now there are 307.3 million shares in issue - NAV per share = £2.12 a share.

Perhaps you can all check my math?

[essentialinvestor] 25/6/2020 12:42

Hi Nick, thanks for the view. Very grateful not to be in London today,
hot enough in Weybridge!.

[nickrl] 25/6/2020 12:27

Essential, its rent roll will be trashed this qtr but to be fair it has already acknowledged that there are tough times ahead. So it was disappointing that in the results they still put so much stall into ERV when in reality in the short to medium term that no longer has relevance. This business has running costs of c£32m and that's before they end with potential big rates bill for void costs. They are forecast 50% NRI reduction over the Mar/June qtrs but this will drag on for at least 12-18mths longer so i don't see them being divi payers anytime soon.

As sub 500 beckons again worth a punt as CAPCO are now a likely interested party although would be better for both of them to do a merge of equals.

[essentialinvestor] 25/6/2020 10:36

Hi konrad, what may be unsettling the sector is a growing realisation COVID looks hear to stay,
at least for the remainder of 2020 and in to 2021.

For a business like SHB, who's assets significantly benefit from tourism, that may paint a vulgar picture.

[konradpuss] 24/6/2020 18:02

I guess it is the negative about potentially how much rent will be collected this quarter day?