Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 08/6/2020 11:54

Capco well over £100 million Up on their buy price, nice.

[konradpuss] 07/6/2020 20:28

Rent collection for the March quarter 60%. For the June quarter - much less in my humble opinion.

Interestingly, I notice Jonathan Lane is a non exec. at Cap Co. so he knows much about Shaftesbury as he was one of the original founder directors.

[nickrl] 07/6/2020 20:03

SHB are going to have to accept turnover rents for there F&B outlets otherwise all they will have is a big bunch of keys imo given tourism and home working will decimate footfall for around 12-18mths. These are the last to have not said anything on rent collection but at least have had most time to give a broader assessment on impact so lets see what they have to say next week although a lack of director buying is disappointing.

[konradpuss] 06/6/2020 18:42

Comment in the I.C. today "Analysts at Peel Hunt see the transaction (purchaser of Sammy's stake by Cap Co) as a prelude to a merger, but warn that Shaftesbury's 20 percent share price premium to Cap Co could spell dilution."

The half year results are out on 10th.June.

I would put a few quid on a rights issue if William Hill would take it! I might be wrong mind.

I would also put a few quid on the Shaftesbury (self serving) management resisting P.45's so would not agree to any take over unless hostile i.e. forced on them.

[konradpuss] 05/6/2020 19:55

Phillis, are you sure things will be back to 'normal' in the West End in two years.

I am certainly not.

The government have frightened the pants off most folk.

[phillis] 05/6/2020 12:57

Capco and SHB have a stranglehold on a valuable part of London
Tenants come And go but the tourists will return

Get in now for a two year play

[hindsight] 05/6/2020 12:44

Think its pretty obvious tenants wont be paying much rent, question is how much will it cost to get to the other side. £50m pa ?

[trcml] 05/6/2020 12:01

Mr Lee owns The Langham Estate so knows about tenant rent difficulty. I reckon he sold his stake in SHB not because he himself is in financial trouble but to get out before the share price falls and CAPC finds it has overpaid.

[arja] 05/6/2020 08:25

certainly a nice short term uptrending chart but not likely to keep going too long .
markets seem to have got ahead of themselves with lead market USA roaring and best not to argue with market and keep trading the trend .

[konradpuss] 04/6/2020 19:31

I did say 'almost'!

Yes, in the long run people will migrate back to Central London.

It's just the interim that could be a 'killer' to many of Shaftesbury's tenants.

More by luck than judgement Cap Co got away Earls Court just before the virus.

I am sure that Delancy and its pension fund partner would have paid much, much less or probably not bought now.

It a changed world as they say.

Did you by at five quid? I did not.

[essentialinvestor] 04/6/2020 19:12

Do not feel sorry for them!.

Look at it this way, worst case in 5 years there is perhaps 50% plus upside on
their stake price?, within a couple of years SHB dividends may be paying
interest on the money invested.

That's outside the possibility of corporate action.


Wall Street Journal also positive on the transaction fwiw.

Capco imv are not trying to time an exact low. Opportunities to acquire a holding
of that size are very few and far between.

[konradpuss] 04/6/2020 17:45

I was speaking to a property 'city solicitor' today.

He was saying the March quarter was bad for Central London for his clients, he was predicting June would be a 'car crash'. One of his clients owns an estate in Central London valued at one billion. He is no piker.

I do not think we saw the bottom at circa a fiver. I might be wrong mind!

I still think a rights issue will be conjured up by the 'self serving' CEO.

I almost feel sorry for Cap Co.

[trcml] 04/6/2020 06:51

Thank you. Am I right in thinking that a 'collector's premium' has been added to SHB's NAV? (As I recall, the reasoning that was that anyone buying SHB would get more than just the individual properties).

In May 2017, it was reported that NAV rose to 912p, compared to 646p in 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis in mid 2008. I don't know what SHB NAV is now but CAPC buying in at a discount to share price when the latter itself is not a reliable measure makes me think CAPC are simply buying into a neighbour because that's closest to home.

[nickrl] 03/6/2020 21:19

TRCML CAPC may have got some SHB assets on the cheap but how many of SHB tenants will be able to afford the rent is debatable. Furthermore given there highly leveraged to tourism my guess is SHB won't be paying out a divi anytime soon so this dead weight on CAPC. That said on a 2-5 horizon it may well be an opportunistic move on CAPC behalf.

[trcml] 03/6/2020 16:31

I am trying to work out which company to buy into. I have knowledge of their respective properties. Would you think CAPC buying into Shaftesbury is a means to up the divi yield on CAPC's shares?

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2020 18:09

Capco see value, however that could be a 3-5 year plus view.

[konradpuss] 01/6/2020 18:07

Wow! that will be a big hit.

He must have been either under pressure from Mr.Bank Manager or he is extremely negative.

Take your pick - mine is he was geared up to the eyes.

[essentialinvestor] 01/6/2020 11:34

Now that shows the advantage of Capco having sold that asset near the cycle top!.

[loafofbread] 01/6/2020 06:47

£5.40!

Lee must have been in all sorts of trouble.

[phillis] 01/6/2020 06:47

Poor old Sammy!
Big hit

[konradpuss] 31/5/2020 20:13

I wonder what price? I will guess around the Friday close - no more.

I wish Cap. Co well dealing with the current management. If they want the Covent Garden holdings they will be dealing with the mercers as well!

[loafofbread] 31/5/2020 19:55

Looks like C@C have got the deal.

[essentialinvestor] 29/5/2020 08:05

Hi konrad, appreciate the view.

On some cyclicals the market look to be getting ahead of itself,
at least looking at many of the recent rapid % moves higher.
It would not be surprising if there was some give back.
As always, timing is the tricky bit.

[konradpuss] 29/5/2020 07:46

I am very bearish as I think this is a bounce off the bottom. Most are too optimistic.

There has been a huge value destruction which is not reflected in some share prices.

I think I would rather be waiting to board a train right now!