Shaftesbury Share Discussion Threads

[hindsight] 22/4/2020 08:00

I do not see the issue being demand side but supply side as social distancing will mean 50% of covers, etc. Personally take view that an investment will see no dividend for 2 years, same as cash, while they get through and a vaccine is rolled out. However then asset prices will look much more precovid like and have the QE effect on wages and asset prices

[essentialinvestor] 21/4/2020 21:04

Hi Nick, absolutely on tourism. It might be 12 months before we get a clearer idea on NAV?.

[nickrl] 21/4/2020 20:15

Essential i would also suggest that tourism plays an important part in underpinning this estate and with international travel not even being on the agenda we are looking at depleted passing trade for 12-18mths min. In fact ive been surprised how well valuations have held up in London but maybe maybe another dose of reality is setting in.

[essentialinvestor] 21/4/2020 16:40

May be reason for the large fall today?:



SHB have heavy exposure to restaurants.

[nickrl] 19/4/2020 21:42

SHB one of limited few now that haven't put out an RNS on rental collection rates for Q2. Interims due May but with FCA guidance on reporting will they delay this and thus another opportunity to to update

[konradpuss] 05/4/2020 19:13

Essential, I think in general you do not have to get in right at the bottom.

One would like to see how their (March) quarter day has been. The June quarter day will be the more interesting as most half reasonable tenants pay before the quarter day so the money had already been paid over before the government announcement in respect of rent payments.

I think the March quarter day will give some idea of the financial position of the tenants of this company.

£5.00, well it would look cheap two months ago however will it look cheap a year from now?

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2020 18:49

konrad, thanks for the view.

During the financial crisis there was an approx 60% NAV for SHB, very approx -
that's from memory without checking the precise numbers.

Gearing would have played a part in that.

[konradpuss] 05/4/2020 18:31

Essential, I have traded this share three times in the last three years and am lucky I got out a few months back.I would have been down circa 40% odd otherwise - phew!

I always bought when it had fallen below the NAV (current £9.82 from memory) and Sammy's famous £8.88 tender and sold above.

Well £5.00 for a buy?

Right now I think it is just too early to go in.

The company claim there is over a 25% reversion on the rents passing - not now me thinks.

The positives are you have a great location for the portfolio and two big holders that might bid - Sammy and the Norge wealth fund.

Let's face it when reviewing the report and accounts all metrics have been going one way for ten years - up. What comes after up - down!

I have not reviewed their debt and maturity.

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2020 14:44

konrad, might possibly dip under £5 a share?.

[konradpuss] 05/4/2020 14:39

Essential, what worries me is the average Shaftesbury tenant on the ground floor of their units. They has carefully tried to produce an interesting tenant mix which might mean their tenants' covenant strength is not great.

Upstairs you usually have resi. and small office suites. How will these perform under stress.

Then there is the gearing.

I think until the smoke clears a bit, best avoided.

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2020 14:03

Once the current crisis passes, which it will sooner or later. what % NAV falls
might we be looking for Shaftesbury?..

Given the gearing, we might be looking at around 40% plus NAV declines?...

Any views appreciated, thanks.

[phillis] 01/4/2020 18:40

Loaf
SHB is not a FUND

[essentialinvestor] 30/3/2020 20:50

Unlikely to be fully reflected in one report, it would usually unfold
over 18 months plus, however this virus has very rapidly accelerated the process to be fair.

[konradpuss] 30/3/2020 20:30

Loaf, you might be better out.

You wait to the valuers get hold of this. I think they might really put the boot in in respect of yield and reversion.

The next financial report from the company will reveal all.

[loafofbread] 25/3/2020 09:42

In at £6.10, out at £6.04.

Perhaps I should have stayed the course?

[konradpuss] 18/3/2020 14:37

Loaf, I'm sorry to hear that. I hope it was not a loss.

[loafofbread] 18/3/2020 14:19

With the news that a number of property funds have just shut up shop and because of the liquid nature of this stock I've just closed out.

Nothing to stop this getting hit again if investors need funds.

Pretty sure we will follow Europe into lock down this week end anyway.

Preservation of capital is the way forward.

[essentialinvestor] 18/3/2020 11:59

2007 NAV - 646 per share.


2009 NAV - 335 per share.


2010 NAV - 378 per share.





So it looks like the RI took a chunk out of NAV?.

SHB may argue it provided some firepower to grow NAV through the upturn.


All imv only, please DYOR and also please check any figures quoted above.

[essentialinvestor] 18/3/2020 11:51

Hi konrad, we are now around 3.50 below the last NAV,
which should give some protection?.

But need to keep in mind the gearing element which increases the % of any asset value falls.


SHB were far from unscathed during the last downturn, need to refresh my memory by reading back
and seeing how much NAV fell from peak to trough during 08/9.

[konradpuss] 18/3/2020 09:51

Have a look at Cap. Co. Plc and their last financial report. They only have exposure to Covent Garden now Earls Court is sold.

Also the J.V. with the Mercers in Covent Garden, Shaftesbury have been marked down by their valuers on the vacancy rate and the yield in their last financial update.

Not calling the bottom at £6.0. However you know what valuers are like. They might take the axe to values in the next up date.

[essentialinvestor] 18/3/2020 09:19

konrad, you've made me think twice here on the Convent Garden vacancies comment.

[konradpuss] 18/3/2020 09:06

Loaf - buy in tranches is best as it goes down. Not calling the bottom by the way.

[loafofbread] 18/3/2020 08:40

Bought a few at £6.00 for the long term.

Best part of London to be in by a mile.