Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 30/9/2020 17:04

Lost money on it in a year and to analogue the property portfolio in debt terms it is now a bit more CCC and a bit less B.

[chucko1] 30/9/2020 17:01

I ought to have said, it never ended up getting valued at a negative sum because the dimwits woke up, smelled some coffee and bought the stock gradually over the next 3 years, multiplying the low price by 4.5x.

[chucko1] 30/9/2020 16:57

Liquidity first. And second. To get within 5% of previous valuation is good, of course, even though a good asset.

Do that enough times and you then get part of the portfolio valued effectively at a negative sum. Happened to GPE LN in the 2008/9 debacle. All sorts of people told me to avoid - oooooh, you shouldn’t touch that - what with Wagamama in financial trouble and other such things. The key was the mathematics behind the finance and the ability to sell assets at 75% of
Book to resolve issues with the commitments/realisations deficit.

Watch this space.

[irishmatt] 30/9/2020 16:36

You are right, needs must I guess but still a shame

[spectoacc] 30/9/2020 16:33

That LTV does need addressing tho, and they've kept 10% of it, and they've got the management fee based on total gross rental. But fair points.

[hugepants] 30/9/2020 16:30

Its a decent price but its probably one of their best assets. I know it well. It's always busy and I think they just bought it last year.

[irishmatt] 30/9/2020 16:30

Would have preferred they kept it, B&M just gone in as tenant and it's a very busy retail park so solid income coming in. 9% yield seems on cheap side to me (but then what do I know)

[spectoacc] 30/9/2020 16:11

Think this is pretty good in the circumstances:


"NewRiver is pleased to announce the disposal of 90% of its interest in Sprucefield Retail Park, Lisburn, to its joint venture partner BRAVO Strategies III LLC ("BRAVO") for gross proceeds of £34.7 million, reflecting a net initial yield of 9.0% and a 5% discount to its March 2020 valuation. This transaction increases the Company's total completed disposals so far in FY21 to £50.4 million. On a pro-forma basis, these disposals improve the Company's 31 March 2020 LTV of 47.1% by 210 bps, before factoring in valuation and cash movements since year end.



NewRiver will retain a 10% interest in the asset (NewRiver share: £3.9 million), and will benefit from 10% of the net rental income (NewRiver share: £0.4 million per annum). NewRiver has also been appointed as asset manager, in return for a management fee calculated by reference to the gross rental income of the asset, and will receive a promote based on financial performance."

[spectoacc] 30/9/2020 13:27

Chicken lickin'? More like a giant turkey. Barely seen the start of unemployment, a govnt who can't help themselves with lockdowns, pain deferred via grotesque spending, anc tax rises sure to come.

[diggybee] 30/9/2020 13:21

100% you will. But a matter of time...whether that is months, or maybe years.

[dhoult12] 30/9/2020 13:18

Interesting views from Haldane i tend to agree. Whether we can come out of collective despair we will see..

[nickrl] 29/9/2020 21:52

Vow as i said on EPIC thread happy to own any REIT with B&M on the rent roll. Many will have no choice but shop at the discounters only risk is whether they can still import cost effectively but thats for another thread.

[vow] 29/9/2020 15:26

At least their biggest tenant is going all guns.

B&M discount chain to open up to 45 stores

[candid investor] 28/9/2020 21:12

The provosts ..I hadn't realised that my proposition had already taken place elsewhere and had the desired results so quickly ...we are both agreed about the wisdom of a share buy back..although a nice movement today without one
I wish I could understand level 2 transactions, debeege has brought them up too and in particular the games that are being played . Lots of positives when you think about it ..the pubs have remained open as have all the retail outlets...it looks like the 10pm curfew might be extended to 11pm.and noone is in favour of a full lockdown ..the strategy seems to be more geared to finding a safer way to live with it.

[candid investor] 28/9/2020 21:02

Dhoult..no worries, we have all written things clumsily which is easy to misinterpret by the reader. .I can understand where you are coming from now

[vow] 28/9/2020 17:57

Pizza Hut have negotiated reduced rents with all their landlords. Those that refused they have decided to close.

Rent negotiations are done on a rolling 5 year basis so this will continue to drive down rents for the short to medium term.

[hpcg] 28/9/2020 17:18

The Caesars or alternative party takeover of Billy H will be another source of empty property. New owners won't have any attachment to loss making shops and we'll see the estate gradually whittled down. It doesn't have to be a direct hit to NRR, simply another source of negotiating power to the potential renter.

[ccraig69] 28/9/2020 16:02

And when Divis are back returns could be high at this price

[grahamburn] 28/9/2020 15:02

Another significant drag on commercial property companies must be the rising prevalence of pre-pack administrations. Even relatively successful retailer (eg JD Sports) are taking advantage of them for failing subsidiaries. It's the landlords in such situations that take the biggest hit.

[chucko1] 28/9/2020 14:43

This careless selling has been going on in many REITs the past 2-3 weeks. I fancy part of it may relate to open-ended funds selling liquid holdings in anticipation of customer redemptions. News flow on property has not been good at the same time, it has to be conceded, but anything with higher than average LTV has got smoked. Some others, like AIRE, as well.

Been buying them all on the weakness.

[dhoult12] 28/9/2020 13:24

haha chucko1. Indeed.

Agree with the statements reference avoiding a raise if at all possible. Clearly some of that risk priced in at whatever % people believe it is likely to happen. Part of management of that i would also suggest is not spending cash on share buy backs etc.

There was also some pretty poor selling by someone who didn't seem to care (or their broker didn't) price achieved. That has stopped for a bit now.

[chucko1] 28/9/2020 13:07

I suppose to demonstrate the point about valuation, the share price has just risen 10% the past two hours or so.

No clue why whatsoever, but then according to my thesis - who cares anyway?

[diggybee] 28/9/2020 12:49

That is pretty much my thought too.