Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
National Grid LSE:NG. London Ordinary Share GB00BDR05C01 ORD 12 204/473P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +2.70p +0.33% 812.90p 8,021,986 16:35:25
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
811.40p 811.60p 815.80p 808.30p 814.60p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Gas Water & Utilities 15,035.0 2,184.0 207.1 3.9 27,532.86

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Date Time Title Posts
04/2/201815:33NG--with charts.3
06/8/201513:21NG. with charts2
28/11/201213:43National Grid - Powering Ahead!83
18/1/201210:49The New NGT/NG.269

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National Grid Daily Update: National Grid is listed in the Gas Water & Utilities sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NG.. The last closing price for National Grid was 810.20p.
National Grid has a 4 week average price of 751.50p and a 12 week average price of 733p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,097p while the 1 year low share price is currently 733p.
There are currently 3,386,992,379 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,376,790 shares. The market capitalisation of National Grid is £27,532,861,048.89.
pierre oreilly: But what is the value of 'being close to the business and knowing it very well' (as i do in fact) if you sit back and don't foresee a big drop in the share price? If you take out the market movement for this sector, there isn't a great loss in ng. - it's substantiually a market move. It doesn't make sense to me you not selling while you now view the prospects so poorly and where until recently you viewed them as very positive. Jeeze, what would make you sell if those factors don't? Since you ask, I sold half my holding a few months ago because of rising interest rates and the fact that it was very large and out of balance with my other shareholdings. That was my 1st and only sale since ng. shares came into being decades ago. I may buy some back at these lower levels since the (market, sector and ng.) fall looks well overdone to me. Can you explain why your posting style has changed so much recently?
newbank: Yesterdays rise and todays rise just about cancels out Mondays fall. So with the FTSE rising nicely, SSE rising, NG performance look poor in comparison. Saving grace is inflation falling. However, it will be interesting to see how the share price goes as we get closer to results and to hear the message of how NG is doing and what if anything JP and his Board are contemplating in order to get this share price back to its highs of last year. Afterall, if I recall JP justified selling 61% of the Gas Distn Business because he said that they wanted to concentrate on a business that would deliver greater returns for shareholders. I think a year should give us an indication of how that strategy has developed.
newbank: Action, Yes only to be expected. JP is already making excuses for not hitting expected targets. He has been in charge since Aug 2016, Steve Holliday though handing over the reins in April 2016, was around for a few months of transition. NG has lost £11.63 Billion of Market value (based on the current share price) under his leadership. I had high hopes that JP would carry on where Steve Holliday left off, building market value, delivering shareholder value and planning to mitigate against negatives in the market, but unfortunately I was, like others , very wrong. JP only surfaces three times a year to deliver Interims, Finals and attend the AGM. Have any of you been to the AGM or viewed the AGM on the web? You have a Chairman Sir Peter Gershon who dictates what can be asked and what cannot be asked and frowns on investors asking questions about the share price. When people do slip in a question about poor performance the reply is always a very poor excuse and quickly shut down. At results, watch Pettigrew carefully. At questions rather than stand up and confidently invite questions from the City analysts like Steve Holliday used to, Pettigrew sits behind a desk (usually with arms folded) answering painfully the questions asked. He doesn't look comfortable at all and more importantly, doesn't instil confidence. One has to ask is he the right man for the Job? Just an observation, as some would say.
utyinv: Nice to start reading positive publications (mind you they are known to change their tune.... often :) ) Is the National Grid share price the bargain of the year? The National Grid (LSE: NG) share price has dived 30% year-to-date and is now more than 35% off its all-time high printed in mid-2016, excluding dividends. However, despite these declines, the National Grid business is still powering ahead. For the six months to the end of September, adjusted operating profit increased by 4% to £1.4bn. That being said, on a statutory basis, earnings per share for the period declined 12% year-on-year, and for the full-year, analysts are forecasting earnings shrinkage of 5.3%. Still, in my opinion, a 5.3% decline in earnings does not justify a 30% decline in the value of the shares. Indeed, even after factoring-in the earnings decline, the shares are now trading at their lowest valuation in six years. The bargain of the year? With a dividend yield of 6.2% on offer, the shares certainly look appealing for income investors, but the critical question is, what’s behind the recent share price decline? As my Foolish colleague Edward Sheldon recently pointed out, there are currently three significant threats overhanging the company. These include the danger of renationalisation if Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gets into power, action by power regulator Ofgem, which has promised its “toughest̶1; ever crackdown on energy network profits, and rising interest rates. Of these three headwinds, in my view, investors only have to worry about the prospect of renationalisation. Indeed, Ofgem’s new price controls, won’t come into force until 2021 and the firm is working flat out to increase its exposure to the US to offset stricter regulation here in the UK. Almost 50% of revenue now comes from the US. This division is growing much faster, with profit rising 19.2% for the half year to the end of September to £526m compared to an 11.5% fall in operating profit at the UK electricity transmission business to £540m. The company spent twice as much (£1bn) investing in its US business than in the UK during the period. Meanwhile, higher interest rates have resulted in investors selling off ‘bond proxies’ like National Grid as they hunt for income elsewhere. So, to some extent, this issue is cosmetic. The company will have to grapple with higher interest rates on its debt, as well, although management should have already provisioned for rising rates. The biggest concern When it comes to the threat of renationalisation, it is impossible to say today how much compensation investors will receive if a Labour government takes over the business. That said, what Corbyn says and might do are two different things, and he may never actually get into power. With this being the case, I’d say the risks are skewed in the firm’s favour. What’s more, there’s already plenty of bad news baked into the National Grid share price. So overall, while some risks are overhanging the shares, I believe that on balance, the group’s 6.2% dividend yield is worth the risk, especially considering the company’s monopoly position in the market and valuation of 12.7 times forward earnings.
utyinv: Pogue, Banks IMV are undervalued and when Brexit is sorted one way or other watch the share price rise. NG has fallen to unprecedented lows and if you need a stock to hold its capital value then being involved in a stock ‘out of favour’ can be restrictive. We are living in such uncertain and illogical times (market sense) just look at PFG. Fined, agreeing to raise capital by going to tap shareholders and its share price rose 80% overnight (yesterday), from £5.70 to over £10. Markets put it down to Uncertainty being removed, Shorts closing and buying back quickly and Institutions believing this stock could be £13/ Share Take the above scenario and look at NG. If the uncertainty is removed, ie, final outcome of Hinkley, price cap and US anti-inflation measures then we may see NG being liked again. As for the Marx Bros they ought to be worried about not upsetting the Yanks because the Yanks have a history of closing down Left Wing /Communist governments one way or other. If that was to ever materialise I would applaud. Look at the state of Cuba! Just returned from there, nice cars, nice weather etc ...romantically looking at the country through rose tinted glass, in reality a complete mess with poverty and mass unemployment. Venezuela, what has it got? Is it now 10,000 % inflation?. The US even made Russia more Capitalist than Britain since perestroika. The US moves in very mysterious ways and even Presidents have been removed from office prematurely if they don’t act in the interests of Capitalism. Trouble with selling out of NG into other stock that pays a good income is that you will probably find that business is under attack from the Marx Bros. The Marx Bros do not like anyone to have wealth. Other than themselves. They appeal to those who have been cursed by the green eyed monster.
jonwig: @ Newbank - ironically, the agency which could thwart Labour's plans is the ECJ. All their favoured ways of 'leaving' the EU appear to mean keeping keeping the jurisdiction of the court. Given the intertwined relationships and arguments about fair compensation it's unlikely they could achieve anything on this front anytime soon! Unfortunately the NG. share price wouldn't be likely to make much headway in the meantime!
pierre oreilly: Hi Mani, no I'm not a sceptic at all. I pretty well know charting simply doesn't work. I'm trained in maths and science, and I bet most who believe in charting aren't. In maths terms, share price changes are non-deterministic and always, in academic research, the movement is simulated by a random walk (with other criteria necessary when that can be applied). There aren't a great deal of scientific papers on charting, simply because it's non-deterministic. However, when nobel prize winning economists who have studied traders who use charting, there is no difference to random bets. Traders who make a lot are simply lucky, those who lose a lot simply unlucky - a natural occurrence from randomness. On average chartists will lose, due to trading systems being zero sum with costs taken out. (That's the key to making money from charting ... set up an enablimg system to deliver trading services, and encourage trading. One way of encouraging trading is of course to convince people they can know a future share price, and charting seems a successful method of encouragement). You said before that a casino was different from the stock market. But really it isn't, except in the magnitude of risk and costs. Chartists looking at past prices attempting to foresee a future price are absolutely no different from the person who notes down the red and black sequence on the roulette board in an attempt to work out what colour will come next. Just as any red/black sequence is irrelevant to the next spin, so past share prices are irrelevant to the direction of the next tick and future prices (which are actually driven by sentiment which itself is driven by pretty random asynchronous events) Of course you may believe patterns indicate a future price, but you'd get a nobel prize yourself if you could publish a paper on how that is done. I find it difficult understanding your stance. You say examine past share prices and you can predict future prices, or the probability of future prices, and yet you say that most of your predictions are wrong, and you make money via stop loss strategies etc. The probability of a random guess is 50%, yet by your own admission, your charting delivers less success than random bets. The ultimate test is of course as i have highlighted. If anyone can predict future prices (or the probability of future prices at greater than say 51%) then they would be exceptionally rich. My guess is chartists like to believe chartism works, and so lay much more emphasis on the approx 50% of successful trades and tend to forget the approx 50% of trades which lose.
utyinv: As the share price rises the attractiveness of the Special Dividend and the corresponding share consolidation is less appealing. However, it depends on whether the strategy adopted by the NG ‘Board’ works in the long run where I would hope we would start to see some growth in the share price. Because let’s be honest for a progressive Company the share price has been rather disappointing where having languished in the £10 are for years it should be showing signs of upward momentum, hence analysts suggesting it should have reached £13 / share as far back as 2015. Anyway, whether you decide that the Special Dividend and share consolidation is for you or not is a person decision based on how confident you believe the move will bring future benefits to shareholders. In earlier posts, someone quoted a share holding of 20,000 so let’s use that as an example. Now If, a big If, the share price remains the same after the share consolidation (with the special Divi being cancelled out by the consolidation), the Private Investor will in the short term be worse off ignoring the tax liability that may result. Example, 20,000 shares at current price of £10.43 gives a value of £208,600 ignoring dealing selling costs and spread costs. 20,000 shares Special Divi of 84.375p = £16,875 Share consolidation: (20,000 /12) x 11 = 18,333 new shares. New total value if new shares have the same price as old shares:- 18,333 shares at £10.43 = £191,213 + £16,875 = £208,088. But if you wanted to buy the new shares back using your special dividend; if the price remains £10.43 post consolidation then with dealing tax on buying back you will effectively lose an additional £84 in dealing tax (£16,875 X 0.5%). In addition to normal dealings costs and spread costs. As for capital gains tax; as mentioned earlier in my post to Pierre, it begs the question about the 30 day rule whether buying the new shares is regarded as the same as the old shares. The new shares are not the same as the old shares and there is a clause excluding share consolidations, new share issues etc. It is all in the interpretation and to be certain you would have to consult a specialist who may end up charging you. Let’s hope the strategy works for shareholders in the long run, hopefully seeing future growth in share price. IMO!
utyinv: Mike24, As an added point, and this is only an opinion as I couldn't possibly give advice..... :) I expect the share price to rise after an initial fall, though this may take some time to get back to pre sale share price. However, the share price drop may be mitigated by the share buy back and a possible share consolidation. If the price recovers then you just keep your original option price. However, we have been here before where the share price dropped due to a rights issue when NG was raising £3billion to invest on infrastructure build because OFGEM said NG shareholders should take a hit! In which case, sharesave holders closed their option took the cash, bought shares in the open market at a new lower price than the original option price and then took out the next sharesave with a lower option price. The same happened to bank employees when the bank crisis was at its peak. Shares from £9+ was reduced to approx £1. Many bank staff cashed in their sharesave, took the money saved and waited for the next sharesave issue which was at a much new lower price. I believe the next sharesave option price will be issued in Dec / Jan for 1st April 2018?????
utyinv: PO, I think you miss my point. Pre referendum National Grid value X. Post referendum National Grid worth X no change intrinsically, but the share price in GBP post referendum has gone up to reflect the drop in the value of the GBP worldwide, ie, 20%. Sure if you sold Grid at £11.30p and bought something from the UK you would benefit but if you bought something outside the UK you would be no better off than before the referendum. 30%+ of NG income comes from the US with a US$ income that is exchanged back into UK Sterling (in simple terms). I spoke to Bonfield (CFO) in July when the share price jumped almost overnight to £11.30 and commented that the share price jumping to £11.30 was only a result of the drop in the GBP and euforia shouldn't let us run away with ourselves and he agreed. NG has yet to be valued correctly and a pre referendum share price, based on money spent on increasing our assets by £5billion / yr should have raised the share price to £13/share. National Grid is one of a very few Companies that are expanding and spending real money improving and building asset base and the share price has not IMO kept pace with build. I dont have to explain the significance of an increasing asset base to you as I know you are aware how National Grid gets its income. I also expect a boost in share price especially when the City realise and 'clocks' what's on the horizon with the gas distn sale. My forecast, IMO! Distn business worth £11 billion sale of 51% gives a return of £5.6 billion, take pro rata debt off and a possible share buy back ( an option floated at the AGM to try and keep the share value up post sale) would leave £2.9 billion to be returned to shareholders. With 3.7 billion shares in circ this may realise a special divi of 78p.
National Grid share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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