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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Grid Plc | LSE:NG. | London | Ordinary Share | GB00BDR05C01 | ORD 12 204/473P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.40 | 0.68% | 950.00 | 2,947,160 | 12:35:22 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 947.40 | 947.80 | 950.00 | 940.80 | 943.60 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combination Utilities, Nec | 19.86B | 2.29B | 0.4687 | 20.23 | 46.11B |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:39:48 | O | 3,283 | 945.5101 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2024 | 09:17 | ALNC |  National Grid sets out "unprecedented" GBP35 billion investment plans |
| 18/12/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC National Grid: RIIO-T3 Business Plan published |
| 10/12/2024 | 13:45 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Director/PDMR Shareholding |
| 06/12/2024 | 16:18 | ALNC | IN THE KNOW: Morgan Stanley cuts European utilities view, raises E.ON |
| 02/12/2024 | 16:15 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Total Voting Rights |
| 28/11/2024 | 13:30 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Scrip Dividend for 2024/25 Interim Dividend |
| 28/11/2024 | 10:01 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Holding(s) in Company |
| 26/11/2024 | 16:51 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Holding(s) in Company |
| 25/11/2024 | 17:15 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Holding(s) in Company |
| 18/11/2024 | 16:47 | UK RNS | National Grid PLC Holding(s) in Company |
National Grid (NG.) Share Charts1 Year National Grid Chart |
|
1 Month National Grid Chart |
Intraday National Grid Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2024 | 13:46 | NATIONAL GRID WITH CHARTS/NEWS/LINKS | 9,956 |
| 27/6/2024 | 14:02 | National Grid - Powering Ahead! | 107 |
| 04/2/2018 | 15:33 | NG--with charts. | 3 |
| 06/8/2015 | 12:21 | NG. with charts | 2 |
| 18/1/2012 | 10:49 | The New NGT/NG. | 269 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:39:49 | 945.51 | 3,283 | 31,041.10 | O |
| 12:39:30 | 945.51 | 192,736 | 1,822,338.56 | O |
| 12:35:23 | 950.00 | 3,920 | 37,240.00 | O |
| 12:35:23 | 950.00 | 478 | 4,541.00 | O |
| 12:35:23 | 950.00 | 2,235 | 21,232.50 | O |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 26/12/2024 10:46 by bountyhunter Thanks all, I've just seen the above posts having switched from NG. to Nexans around the time of the rights issue (not such a great decision!). At the time my NG shares were with FreeTrade who didn't enable the rights to be taken up so I sold out (and have since moved other ISA shares held with FreeTrade).Happy Christmas and HNY to all! I've put up the Xmas trees in the header, albeit a day late! PS I've also been pre-occupied learning about Quantum Computing, in relation to Nasdaq companies, if anyone is interested, |
Posted at 18/12/2024 15:57 by utyinv Very cyclic. Happens every year just before Christmas. Hedge funds shorting to try and gain as much short term cash to justify their bonus. PIs also selling to fund Christmas.I love Christmas like any normal person but cannot understand why people go overboard in spending what they cannot afford or spending saved assets to overindulge. Christmas is more about being together with loved ones, family, friends and NOT about how much a present has cost. Anyway, on the other side of Christmas Feb / mar expect a slow run up to £11/£12 and then come April, I will see what the March CPIH is which we can then calc the final divi. As NG realise the increase in asset wealth ( which also helps Ofgem determine what NG are allowed to charge customers for regulated businesses), then share prices SHOULD slowly start rising correlating with the Asset value of the Company. Don’t forget NG is very different from any other private company in relation to capital spend, where in NG's case the Company can recoup the costs through customer bills. Might be wrong, as we all can be, especially with the unreliable Gov we have, but I would expect £11 or even £12 / share by results in May |
Posted at 06/11/2024 11:47 by pierre oreilly Yes 1k, ng. will benefit from all this crazy spend of customers' money. The regulator (i.e. the gov) allow a return on capital, so the more ng. spends (or more correctly is ordered to spend on pylons and other guff necessary purely for the daft attempt at implementation of net zero - it'll never happen!). iirc there's 60bn about to be spent by ng. with 30b in the uk over the next few years guaranteeing higher profits for us. As you say, the return ng. is allowed is collected from a markup on traded electricity. It's really unlike any other business, low risk yet gteed profits to come. But I'd personally like profits to come from implementing a sensible efficient grid infrastructure, and not a grid driven by various political agendas. |
Posted at 01/11/2024 09:59 by anhar Quite right. Pro traders in big caps like NG., whether in the US, UK or elsewhere, are interested only in making money and are entitled to trade how they wish towards that end. The idea that "yanks" sell the share down out of some sort of conspiratorial personal animosity towards it is ludicrous.And as Dartboard suggests, if this was remotely true then other pros would trade against them for certain profits so that the conspiracy would be arbed out. Also there's a nasty element of anti US attitude being expressed here, as if "yanks" are worse than Brits or other nationalities as traders. The message seems to be that "yanks" are bad for NG. whilst Brits of course are good. What utter rubbish. NG. is a public company and anyone, whichever country in which they are located, can trade it any way they want. It's just part of the overall market. The whole silly story is because some people can't bear the feeling of their shares sometimes declining and look around for a scapegoat to blame. |
Posted at 31/10/2024 10:02 by anhar Nonsense. Almost all share price moves are random for big caps like NG..Repeatedly blaming some mysterious malign "yanks" for price falls, as if they have it in for the company, seems like superstition to me. Shares go up and down all the time for no reason and anyway, even if you believe in malign forces at work, there's nothing you can do about it. |
Posted at 22/10/2024 15:48 by pierre oreilly Uty, yes a different company now (or soon), which has probably escaped journos. There seems to be to me a hell of a lot of similarity with what ng. has just done during its cash raising - projecting situations well into the future to ease transition to net zero. Unless I'm missing something, Neso are now going to largely repeat that exercise (with another few buzzwords like 'spatial'). Whatever, I see neso having many more consultants pulled in (probably now surplus to ng. after the fund raising projections). Who's paying for those? (Not that Neso's costs are anything to do with ng.).I wonder how long before neso tell the government that some/many of their new requirements are incompatible. Probably a good few years. |
Posted at 18/10/2024 18:11 by xtrmntr Hampstead is the deepest underground station in London. Late in the evening, however, residents can still occasionally hear the rumble of trains as they lie in bed. It's a reminder of the world that exists underneath the capital and the country as a whole. Tubes, gas pipes, sewers, water mains, electric cables and telecommunication lines all stretch below our feet.One of the biggest infrastructure projects currently under way in the UK is the London Power Tunnels programme. Run by National Grid (NG.), it involves rewiring the city's ageing electricity system via a series of new tunnels buried 40 metres below the surface. The project started back in 2011 and is expected to cost around £2bn in total. The stakes are high, therefore but for National Grid, it's just one of the challenges on the horizon. In May this year, the utility giant announced £60bn of investment over five years to upgrade and expand the power grid in England and Wales (as well as to bolster its US assets). The capital expenditure plan is far larger than analysts had expected and is nearly double that seen over the prior five years. Investment in the grid is increasingly urgent. Electricity demand in Great Britain is expected to be 50 per cent higher by 2035, with electric vehicles and heat pumps proving particularly burdensome. Artificial intelligence could add to the strain; analysts at UBS expect data centre usage to rise from 2.8 per cent of European electricity demand today to 8.4 per cent in 2030. There is another problem, too. National Grid is rewiring the network to accommodate more power from renewable sources, such as wind. This is needed to hit the government's goal of a net zero grid by 2030. Unlike dirtier forms of power, though, renewable energy tends to be generated in remote areas often offshore in the North Sea. These new sources of supply need to be connected to cities and towns."It is the biggest build-out of the networks since Victorian times," says National Grid chief executive John Pettigrew. "Most of our networks were built in the 1960s when they were transporting energy from the north of the country, where the coal mines were, to the south of the country, where most of the population was. Now we need to rewire Britain so energy is coming from offshore wind in the North Sea and the Celtic Sea."Read more from Investors' ChronicleWhy watchlists could be investors' secret weaponCore holdings from the 'sin', technology and investment trust sectorsYou don't have to be invested in China to care about the market rallyHow to solve London's housing shortageExisting infrastructure isn't robust enough to support these changes. Bottlenecks in the grid mean electricity from northerly wind farms sometimes cannot reach areas of demand. As a result, wind farms are paid to stop generating electricity, while power stations are paid to produce electricity closer to where it is needed.Battery storage providers have also been frustrated at National Grid's infrequent use of their technology. A representative of National Grid's electricity systems operator the oversight business sold to the government in a deal that completed this month told the FT in September that outdated computer equipment and cable shortages were partly to blame. An investment opportunity Tackling these issues won't be cheap. However, National Grid doesn't operate like your average company. It is a monopoly whose returns are determined, largely in advance, by energy regulator Ofgem. Rather than hurting profits and breeding uncertainty, therefore, the group's huge investment programme has transformed its growth prospects.Before digging into this, though, it's necessary to understand what National Grid actually does. At its simplest, the company makes sure electricity is transported safely and efficiently from where it's produced to where it's needed. Its main focus is transmission, which involves moving?electricity at a high voltage through a network of pylons, overhead lines, cables and substations. The company has over 7,000km of overhead power lines across England and Wales enough to stretch from London to Miami. The distribution business is smaller, and involves moving electricity at a lower voltage from the grid to customers. It serves people in the Midlands, South West and South Wales.National Grid's revenue comes from us, the customers. In everyone's electricity bill, there is a small charge roughly £20 a year that covers the cost of transmission. National Grid also charges about £100 a year for distribution in the areas it serves.The more complicated question, however, is what drives these revenues. The amount of money National Grid can make primarily relies on the size of its infrastructure network or its "regulated asset base". This is roughly calculated by taking the value of the assets at privatisation, plus all the money that has been poured in since then, minus depreciation. Ofgem then determines what level of return the company can make from these assets, taking into account the cost of debt and the cost of equity. The calculations are complicated, but the core idea is simple: the more National Grid invests in the network, the more it can earn (in the UK, there is another tailwind too the asset base is indexed to inflation). In theory, therefore, National Grid's investment push should increase its earning power. Its asset base is expected to swell from £63bn this year to £100bn by FY2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 9.5 per cent. Analysts at Bernstein are forecasting that operating profit will grow even faster in the same period. "National Grid offers exposure to multi-decade growth in electricity networks in stable and well-regulated markets, providing excellent earnings visibility," HSBC analyst Charles Swabey concludes. Schroders fund manager Ashley Thomas agrees, stressing the group's "secure and transparent" growth profile. These enhanced growth prospects are not necessarily reflected in the share price. There are a variety of ways to value the company but, given its presence in both the UK and North America, many analysts favour a sum-of-the-parts approach. JPMorgan, for example, says given the structural opportunities the UK network should be valued at a 40 per cent premium to its regulated asset base, and values the US infrastructure at 1.4 times its current worth. As such, it has a target price of 1,200p for March 2026, up from today's price of around 990p.The stock looks reasonable from a price/earnings (PE) perspective too. National Grid has traded on an average forward PE ratio of 15 times for the past five years, but now attracts a multiple of just 13.6 times. Given its rapidly expanding asset base, this discrepancy seems unjustified. Glitch in the systemNot everything is set in stone. A shortage of trained workers and supply chain hold-ups could hamper National Grid's investment plans. Meanwhile, Ofgem still has the power to cause problems."Given the expected step-up in UK transmission capex, the crucial unknown is the regulatory framework that will underpin regulated assets growth and returns," says HSBC. The current regulatory period ends in March 2026, with a new five-year regulatory period starting the following month. For now, though, the signs are positive. Last year, for example, Ofgem introduced the term 'investability' in a consultation to "recognise the scale of investment required in coming decades". In July of this year it also expressed an early view on the returns National Grid should make in the next regulatory period. This was largely as expected, with Ofgem guiding for a return on equity of 5.43 per cent for the UK transmission network. More negotiations will follow. "You have seen some regulators shift from being purely focused on minimising the cost to the consumer to also thinking about how we allow the energy system to decarbonise, and what we actually need to do from a grid perspective," notes BlackRock fund manager Alastair Bishop. For investors, though, there is another fly in the ointment. One of the ways that National Grid raised money for its £60bn capex plan was through a £7bn rights issue announced in May. This took a lot of the pressure off the balance sheet, which was looking strained, and paves the way for higher overall profits in the future. However, it also swelled the share count by roughly 30 per cent. Earnings growth on a per share basis looks muted, therefore and National Grid's own forecasts should be taken with a heavy pinch of salt. The company expects underlying earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual rate of 6-8 per cent between financial years 2025 and 2029. However, by starting the guidance from 2025, the management team has avoided showing the impact of the elevated share count. Deepa Venkateswaran, head of European utilities at Bernstein, calculates that if an undisturbed EPS figure for 2024 were to be used instead, the compound annual growth rate will only sit at between 2.8-4.3 per cent. Accounting for bonus shares issued in 2024, this growth figure climbs to 5.1 per cent. These numbers are lower than the 6-8 per cent EPS growth achieved in the previous five-year period and lower than the forecasts communicated by the company, Venkateswaran concludes. The rights issue also impacted National Grid's famously reliable payouts: the dividend has been rebased from 58.5p a share down to 45.3p a share. It is set to start growing again in line with inflation from next year, under the same progressive policy as before. The dividend hit suggests there has been a strategic shift towards growth at the expense of income but many are unfazed by this. "It remains a classic income thesis," says Tommy Kristoffersen, fund manager at EdenTree Investment Management. "But instead of it being a wobbly, risky income thesis, it's underpinned by this £60bn capex plan which, in turn, is underpinned by a government that knows that it's necessary to support renewable expansion."Schroders |
Posted at 10/10/2024 10:27 by utyinv Its the US hedge funds. They are quite ignorant at how utilities work, exacerbated by the news that the Gov is buying the ESO.The ESO accounts for a very very small percentage of revenue pulled in by NG. It can also be argued that even though NG were never really responsible for seeing there was sufficient generation to meet demand, invariably the thickos at the markets would blame NG and the share price price hit. This perceived liability has always dogged NG but once the ESO belongs to the Gov the people can only blame the Gov. I hope to see NG move steadily up to a £20.80 / share, share price as we progress through the massive infrastructure build. The income I expect from a £100billion company (in years to come), without getting into the maths and keeping the same shares in circ, would be around £1.24 / share |
Posted at 15/9/2024 18:23 by bountyhunter SMC, Nexans have interests in 41 countries, Ukraine is only one of them and the effect of the war will have been factored in before now. As evidenced by the chart this hasn't stopped the NEX share price rising significantly and progressively almost doubling over the last year. I agree that the share price will undoubtedly have been affected from the start of the war until factored in, and yes something to be aware of.Comparing Nexans with Prysmian the two companies have been neck and neck over the past year. Over 5 years it's NKT followed by NEX then PRY in terms of performance, but NKT is not available as an investment with any of my brokers. |
Posted at 10/6/2024 10:41 by pierre oreilly There's no direct link between the divi and earnings.Pettigrew said he expected earnings next year to grow roughly in proportion to the number of shares, therefore eps being about the same. After that istr he expect earnings (and eps) to grow at 10% pa for the following 6 or 7 years (as you say, mainly due to asset growth). The constant (in real terms) high, relative to the risk, divi (almost whatever cpi does) combined with share price growth proportional to eps growth is the investment case the directors put forward. A sort of safe indexed linked income with very likely share price growth (of around 10%pa ? if relative to eps) is probably what the City likes. |
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