Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
National Grid LSE:NG. London Ordinary Share GB00BDR05C01 ORD 12 204/473P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +1.20p +0.14% 879.00p 876.30p 876.70p 881.60p 874.30p 875.30p 7,324,078 16:35:02
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Gas Water & Utilities 15,035.0 2,184.0 207.1 4.2 29,765.38

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Date Time Title Posts
30/11/201612:03NG--with charts.2
06/8/201512:21NG. with charts2
28/11/201213:43National Grid - Powering Ahead!83
18/1/201210:49The New NGT/NG.269

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National Grid (NG.) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2017-12-11 17:10:14877.65237,1222,081,103.37O
2017-12-11 17:09:32879.0038,416337,676.64O
2017-12-11 17:08:17877.65300,0002,632,952.70O
2017-12-11 17:06:47876.393002,629.17O
2017-12-11 17:03:55878.9420,405179,347.30O
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National Grid Daily Update: National Grid is listed in the Gas Water & Utilities sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NG.. The last closing price for National Grid was 877.80p.
National Grid has a 4 week average price of 859.30p and a 12 week average price of 859.30p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,097p while the 1 year low share price is currently 859.30p.
There are currently 3,386,277,964 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 10,795,481 shares. The market capitalisation of National Grid is £29,765,383,303.56.
utyinv: m100, Just one of the many changes taking place that should deliver greater economic efficiency. Just before Steve Holliday retired he stated that based on fundamentals the NG share price should be £13 / share rather than the price at the time which was approx £10.50 / share. Though logic and fundamentals don't always deliver a strong share price when political sentiment is negative. I am not too concerned if NG do not deliver great results on Thursday (providing its not bad!), as the second half is the bellwether to see if NG's new strategy of delivering shareholder value is working.
utyinv: 1olddog, Hard to say; you need to read and do your own research. McDonnell didn't help when he added on the Andrew Marr show that Energy Construction will be Nationalised too. This reminds me of the time Prescott mentioned that Railtrack ought to be nationalised (although in that case there was justification due to the safety record at the time), the share price just steadily fell over time making it easy for the shares to be brought under Gov Control, i.e. make the market lose confidence then grab. The 'Board' have adopted a strategy to invest more in the US where there is a level playing field with business and profit is not such a dirty word. There is also the fact that there has been a '3 line whip' on reducing operating costs by 30% as mentioned above. You have also got to bear in mind and ignoring politics, as with the nature of the business, the second half brings in more revenue than the first half so a clearer picture will be given next May. In the meantime, the interims due on 9th Nov should give us a clue as to how well the strategy adopted by JP and his Board is developing. I would guess most on here are LTH's and I would believe some are very frustrated because they re-invested some or all of their recent special dividend in the shares at a much higher price than what it is now, this is despite the fact that the share consolidation and share buy back was intended to maintain the share price. Sorry if this hasn't helped but you need to DYOR and hope for the best. :)
pierre oreilly: Hi Mani, no I'm not a sceptic at all. I pretty well know charting simply doesn't work. I'm trained in maths and science, and I bet most who believe in charting aren't. In maths terms, share price changes are non-deterministic and always, in academic research, the movement is simulated by a random walk (with other criteria necessary when that can be applied). There aren't a great deal of scientific papers on charting, simply because it's non-deterministic. However, when nobel prize winning economists who have studied traders who use charting, there is no difference to random bets. Traders who make a lot are simply lucky, those who lose a lot simply unlucky - a natural occurrence from randomness. On average chartists will lose, due to trading systems being zero sum with costs taken out. (That's the key to making money from charting ... set up an enablimg system to deliver trading services, and encourage trading. One way of encouraging trading is of course to convince people they can know a future share price, and charting seems a successful method of encouragement). You said before that a casino was different from the stock market. But really it isn't, except in the magnitude of risk and costs. Chartists looking at past prices attempting to foresee a future price are absolutely no different from the person who notes down the red and black sequence on the roulette board in an attempt to work out what colour will come next. Just as any red/black sequence is irrelevant to the next spin, so past share prices are irrelevant to the direction of the next tick and future prices (which are actually driven by sentiment which itself is driven by pretty random asynchronous events) Of course you may believe patterns indicate a future price, but you'd get a nobel prize yourself if you could publish a paper on how that is done. I find it difficult understanding your stance. You say examine past share prices and you can predict future prices, or the probability of future prices, and yet you say that most of your predictions are wrong, and you make money via stop loss strategies etc. The probability of a random guess is 50%, yet by your own admission, your charting delivers less success than random bets. The ultimate test is of course as i have highlighted. If anyone can predict future prices (or the probability of future prices at greater than say 51%) then they would be exceptionally rich. My guess is chartists like to believe chartism works, and so lay much more emphasis on the approx 50% of successful trades and tend to forget the approx 50% of trades which lose.
utyinv: ringer12, In answer to your question Yes and NO :) Yes, in theory with less shares in circulation the Company will be paying out less in dividends if the divi being paid was on the same basis as before the consolidation, i.e. £X billions / 3.71 billion shares. No, if the money generated to be distributed amongst the reduced shares in circulation is distributed on the same fundamentals i.e. £Y billions / 3.4 billion shares. The distinction between £X Billions v £Ybillions is that £X billions would have been more than £Y Billions because don't forget we have sold 61% of the gas Distn business so we should be getting that amount less in profits to distribute to shareholders. However, the reduction in shares in circulation plus the buy back should cancel each other out. As I have said though if you look at the figures in the company accounts to see what profits vs the costs are for the Gas Distn business you will see that the gas Distn business is costly (very Labour intensive), capital and operating expenditure being high together with a continued pressure from the regulator that is restricting how much profit NG can make because it (Ofgem)believes NG should be a charity and give its service for free(tongue in cheek comment, sorry). So with the strategy to concentrate time and money on more lucrative aspects of the business, in an area where there is less regulatory pressure, in time the dividends should start to increase pleasingly, IF, the plan works! In any way, logically in a normal market the share price should be rising. One of the downsides with National Grid at this moment in time is we are still in June. The divi paid in Aug has already gone ex-divi, so there is no reason to keep your money invested in NG until Late November early Dec when the shares go ex-divi for the Interim payment in Jan '18. and then that is only 35% of the yearly divi on current policy. So in essence you have to wait almost another year to get some meaningful dividend (Divi in Aug '18 which goes ex-divi in June '18)i.e. its a long time to wait in having your money tied up. So its times like this that the 'Board' need to be on tope of their game. Create some reason why people should remain invested. Tricks used by other companies include; creating rumours that the Company might want to sell another part of the business, or a rumour in a take-over or how well things are going over in the USA (where regulation is not as stringent as it is over here), or as I have advocated in the past, have four equal quarterly dividend payments, or / and quickly investigate and hopefully quash any suggestion of liability where there is a suspicion of a claim as a result of when things go wrong. Any of those points mentioned have helped other Companies in the past in alleviating the volatility in share price.
utyinv: Ignoring tax implication it depends when you buy back and what the share price is. If you buy back after the shares go ex-divi (final) and the price obtained is much lower than the final dividend (which you would lose buying ex-divi) then yes slightly better off. A simple calculation would be to consider this hypothetical example: Let's say you have 100 shares and using the consolidation of 11 new shares for 12 old shares. But still maintaining the Special Divi of 84.375p. Now lets say, for this example the share price rises to £50 / share before consolidation and Special divi. If you sold the 100 shares you would raise £5,000 capital. If you didn't sell and waited for the divi and consolidation your value would be: 100 shares X 84.375p = £84.37p plus 91 new shares (at the same price of £50 / share)= £84.37p + (91 x £50) = £84.37p + £4550 = £4,634 So something to consider. Those that have the shares in ISA's have more and better options. As mentioned in my last post not sure about the 30 day rule, which is related to selling and buying back identical shares. As the new shares are not identical, those that want to try the option of selling and buying back to alievaite the tax liability on non-Isa'd dividends, may have some obstacles in the way in persuading HMRC that they are operating within the rules of the 30 day rule. All the above is pure speculation as we all know the markets don't always follow logic and maths. The only saving grace is hoping the strategy brings increased earnings per share in the future and a subsequent increase in the share price.
utyinv: As the share price rises the attractiveness of the Special Dividend and the corresponding share consolidation is less appealing. However, it depends on whether the strategy adopted by the NG ‘Board’ works in the long run where I would hope we would start to see some growth in the share price. Because let’s be honest for a progressive Company the share price has been rather disappointing where having languished in the £10 are for years it should be showing signs of upward momentum, hence analysts suggesting it should have reached £13 / share as far back as 2015. Anyway, whether you decide that the Special Dividend and share consolidation is for you or not is a person decision based on how confident you believe the move will bring future benefits to shareholders. In earlier posts, someone quoted a share holding of 20,000 so let’s use that as an example. Now If, a big If, the share price remains the same after the share consolidation (with the special Divi being cancelled out by the consolidation), the Private Investor will in the short term be worse off ignoring the tax liability that may result. Example, 20,000 shares at current price of £10.43 gives a value of £208,600 ignoring dealing selling costs and spread costs. 20,000 shares Special Divi of 84.375p = £16,875 Share consolidation: (20,000 /12) x 11 = 18,333 new shares. New total value if new shares have the same price as old shares:- 18,333 shares at £10.43 = £191,213 + £16,875 = £208,088. But if you wanted to buy the new shares back using your special dividend; if the price remains £10.43 post consolidation then with dealing tax on buying back you will effectively lose an additional £84 in dealing tax (£16,875 X 0.5%). In addition to normal dealings costs and spread costs. As for capital gains tax; as mentioned earlier in my post to Pierre, it begs the question about the 30 day rule whether buying the new shares is regarded as the same as the old shares. The new shares are not the same as the old shares and there is a clause excluding share consolidations, new share issues etc. It is all in the interpretation and to be certain you would have to consult a specialist who may end up charging you. Let’s hope the strategy works for shareholders in the long run, hopefully seeing future growth in share price. IMO!
utyinv: Mike24, As an added point, and this is only an opinion as I couldn't possibly give advice..... :) I expect the share price to rise after an initial fall, though this may take some time to get back to pre sale share price. However, the share price drop may be mitigated by the share buy back and a possible share consolidation. If the price recovers then you just keep your original option price. However, we have been here before where the share price dropped due to a rights issue when NG was raising £3billion to invest on infrastructure build because OFGEM said NG shareholders should take a hit! In which case, sharesave holders closed their option took the cash, bought shares in the open market at a new lower price than the original option price and then took out the next sharesave with a lower option price. The same happened to bank employees when the bank crisis was at its peak. Shares from £9+ was reduced to approx £1. Many bank staff cashed in their sharesave, took the money saved and waited for the next sharesave issue which was at a much new lower price. I believe the next sharesave option price will be issued in Dec / Jan for 1st April 2018?????
mj19: At the time of writing, shares in the UK’s largest listed utility, National Grid (LSE: NG), were changing hands at around 954p, that’s 16% below last summer’s peak of 1,130p. Traders would consider that a very substantial retracement given the electricity and gas distribution firm’s reputation for stability and low volatility. Inflation-proof A cursory glance at the group’s share price chart makes it an obvious pick for traders looking to buy the dips in an uptrend. But of course we’re not traders looking to make a quick buck from short-term price movements, we’re here to build long-term wealth based on sound fundamentals and common sense. So the question remains, could this be our last chance to buy National Grid for under £10 per share? First and foremost we must look at why the utility giant has remained a favourite among investors looking for stability in their buy-and-hold portfolios. The utility giant has no competition whatsoever, no one else can provide its services here in the UK, resulting in a virtual monopoly, making it ultra-low-risk. Secondly, the company’s dividend policy continues to attract long-term income seekers with its aim to grow the dividend at least in line with the rate of RPI inflation each year for the foreseeable future. In other words, a steady reliable growing income – what’s not to like so far? Growth Third and perhaps more surprisingly, National Grid does have attractions for growth investors. Over the last four reporting periods, the firm’s revenues have increased by £1.3bn, with pre-tax profits up £473m, and underlying earnings per share rising by 27%. The result is a 56% increase in the share price since 2012. Not bad for a boring utility with little opportunity for growth. Nevertheless, the main attraction is still the progressive inflation-proof dividend and low-risk profile, but that in itself attracts buy-and-hold investors in it for the long haul, which of course leads to further share price appreciation. Analysts expect the full-year dividend payout to be hiked by 1.07p per share to 44.41p for the current period to the end of March, with further increments to 47.32p by FY2019, giving a chunky prospective yield of 5% at current share price levels. Windfall But that’s not all folks! Last month National Grid announced that it was to sell a 61% stake in its gas distribution business to a consortium of investors led by Macquarie, the world’s largest infrastructure manager, for £3.6bn in cash by the end of March. The company will also receive £1.8bn in additional debt financing as part of the deal. Of the total £5.4bn proceeds from the sale, National Grid will return around £4bn to shareholders by way of a special dividend, perhaps as early as the second quarter of this year, together with a share buy-back programme. If all goes well, shareholders could be in line for a sizeable windfall.
utyinv: PO, May not have a share consolidation ( the type of consolidation where shareholders have their holding reduced to account for the smaller Company). Without a share consolidation share prices should fall. However, with the £1billion being used to buy back shares should reduce the fall post special divi. Example: After Special divi, depending on where the price is in the Spring/summer, my guess may be £9.50 and if a special divi of 81p is paid I expect the share will fall 81p plus X. The price nearly always falls initially more than the dividend - post dividend. So using the example with 3.7 billion shares in circ at the example price of £9.50 less 81p + X (lets say X =10p) share price could settle at £8.59. If then NG use £1 billion to buy at £8.59 that should reduce the shares in circ by 116.5 million or 3.1%. Gas Distn contributed approx £845million from the £4.1 billion return (last full yr results). After the sale NG will still hold 39% so of the £845million the part Gas Distn element sold would have contributed £515million or 12%. So the buy back should bring back the share price 3.1% plus 10p ( the X used in my example which always comes back) to £9.04 from a starting price of £9.50. It's interesting to note that the reason for selling the gas Distn was to focus on greater growth areas ie United States. From the last full results total gas Distn made £845million whilst the US business made £1.2 billion. So in time the share price should grow back to a strong position whilst still having the benefit of the special dividend. My take is IMO only and the above example is just one scenario that might materialise.
utyinv: PO, I think you miss my point. Pre referendum National Grid value X. Post referendum National Grid worth X no change intrinsically, but the share price in GBP post referendum has gone up to reflect the drop in the value of the GBP worldwide, ie, 20%. Sure if you sold Grid at £11.30p and bought something from the UK you would benefit but if you bought something outside the UK you would be no better off than before the referendum. 30%+ of NG income comes from the US with a US$ income that is exchanged back into UK Sterling (in simple terms). I spoke to Bonfield (CFO) in July when the share price jumped almost overnight to £11.30 and commented that the share price jumping to £11.30 was only a result of the drop in the GBP and euforia shouldn't let us run away with ourselves and he agreed. NG has yet to be valued correctly and a pre referendum share price, based on money spent on increasing our assets by £5billion / yr should have raised the share price to £13/share. National Grid is one of a very few Companies that are expanding and spending real money improving and building asset base and the share price has not IMO kept pace with build. I dont have to explain the significance of an increasing asset base to you as I know you are aware how National Grid gets its income. I also expect a boost in share price especially when the City realise and 'clocks' what's on the horizon with the gas distn sale. My forecast, IMO! Distn business worth £11 billion sale of 51% gives a return of £5.6 billion, take pro rata debt off and a possible share buy back ( an option floated at the AGM to try and keep the share value up post sale) would leave £2.9 billion to be returned to shareholders. With 3.7 billion shares in circ this may realise a special divi of 78p.
National Grid share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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