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Trident Royalties Plc

-0.30 (-0.58%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trident Royalties Plc LSE:TRR London Ordinary Share GB00BF7J2535 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.30 -0.58% 51.50 355,971 08:00:07
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
50.00 53.00 51.50 50.30 51.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Finance Services 0.08 -3.54 -1.40 - 129.57
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:06:33 O 165 52.00 GBX

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Trident Royalties (TRR) Discussions and Chat

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Date Time Title Posts
26/5/202315:01Trident Royalties-Exposure to Commodities using royalties350
30/12/202212:24Trident Royalties with charts529
07/10/202013:03Trident Royalties35

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Trident Royalties (TRR) Most Recent Trades

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Trident Royalties (TRR) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 17/5/2023 13:44 by kaos3
my qs


surprised with the low control/monitoring effort... strange. lots of chance to iron the reported numbers. wow. trust based operations today. wow and wow.


reasonable answer. imh opinion TRR is in a sweet spot having cash, chasing smaller deals and miners having to get finances in this bankinh environment /not easy/. looks good and TRR is making use of the present reality

Posted at 15/5/2023 09:28 by melody9999
sorry if I am behind the curve here but:
1 TRR pay $7M now
2 TRR pay $1M one year after first production
3 TRR receive $8.75M within a year of first production

So as soon as La Preciosa starts new production, TRR are 'in the money'
And the royalties are in 'for free'.

So the only risk is jurisdiction or Avino not getting to production for some reason. (but Avino have sunk the capital and will want to make that happen)
No doubt Adam will have done DD on both of those risks.

Looks good to me

Posted at 17/2/2023 11:43 by someuwin
Today's RNS spells it out. At full production (and using today's spot lithium price of $59k) Thacker Pass will generate $50m per year to TRR.

$50m = £42m. This is pure profit to TRR, so on a PE of 10 would add value of £420m. As TRR's current valuation is only £170m this seems remarkable.

Clearly the market doesn't believe Lithium will remain at these prices. Who knows? But as this is only one of TRR's many royalty revenue streams thee upside is clearly very much to the upside.

Posted at 16/2/2023 05:51 by carcosa
As Shanklin correctly says, there is a replay facility available at hTTps:// ( and the presentation material is available at hTTps:// ).

Of the 68 minute presentation the last 34 minutes were the Q&A session of which there were a number of good questions raised.

My take away is that:

Slide 11 is worth pointing out. TRR is trading below NAV whereas the top Royalty companies are trading 2x above NAV. This allows those companies to buy Royalties at for a high price (pushing out the likes of TRR) because the value to them would be 2x the NAV of the Royalty.

It also begs the question that if TRR end up holding royalties in both Sonora and Thacker then would we become a bid target in future years if we are still trading at or below NAV?

Thacker pass will remain cornerstone of the portfolio because its value may increase due to possible further declared resources and perhaps additional production rate. It's a world class resource, as is Sonara. However it is very possible the Royalty will be sold (years) in the future as improving the NAV is the name of the game. I suspect part of the decision making process will depend on what happens with Sonora. I don't think Trident want to be be dominated with one metal type in the portfolio.

If the likes of the big royalty companies are operating at 2x NAV then does that not call into question the ~$150m valuation we have for Thacker pass? In theory Trident should be able to sell that Royalty for $300m??

As a side note worth pointing out Thacker is priced as per Lithium Carbonate but Sonora is priced as Lithium Hydroxide; a lower price/ton but TRR have a larger royalty (%) over Sonora compared to Thacker.

wrt Trident being saddled with non-payment of the Sonora Royalty even if the Alberta court rules in favour (hoping a decision H1/2023), I got the impression Trident management would not be surprised if Ganfeng Lithium did not pay and took further legal action. Trident were of the opinion that the jurisdictions involved (Canada, Mexico and UK) are strong legal jurisdictions and, at this stage, TRR would enter into litigation. Was interesting to note Trident management mentioned UK/Mexico bilateral agreement several times.

The Mexican government shenanigans were discussed. View was that whatever happens the Royalty remains valid. Also, as far as Sonara is concerned its a bit of a storm in a teacup.

Someone asked about having a bond issue for further financing in preference to the revolving credit. Not feasible due to a bond issue would have to be minimum $300m.

The recent Orion share sales was discussed. Response was along the lines of seeing them as partners. Noting in the past they have sold and bought back. See them as responsible sellers and facilitating share sales where other buyers are wanting to buy in volume.

There were some other interesting questions regarding what other metals/minerals are on the agenda and a particularly interesting question regarding Nuclear (Uranium). Also the perennial question of dividends came up once again.

It is abundantly clear to me from the presentation that the bigger Royalty players can easily walk all over Trident should they wish to do so. When the big boys turn their attention to battery metals then Trident will be hard pressed to find quality royalty business going forward. Trident need to have something of a 'land grab' mentality imo.

I would like to see another couple of new deals being completed sooner than later.

Posted at 08/2/2023 06:56 by rimau1
Thanks Carcosa, good post and I agree with you on the most part. The market hasn’t repriced TRR yet. Even on conservative numbers Thacker is worth a de-risked 50p on TRR’s share price. On the court ruling the judgement in Early Jan said “months” so its within the timeline. So in terms of newsflow we should get an RNS this morning, potentially a ST update this week, then news on Sonora during Q1 and at anytime news of transacting in a new producing royalty with our $25m cash at bank.
Posted at 07/2/2023 12:31 by 888icb
Just over a week ago when TRR share price was 55p Simon Thompson wrote this about Thacker Pass:
“ I also anticipate positive newsflow from Trident’s other valuable major royalty, the Thacker Pass lithium open mine project in Nevada, one of the largest known lithium deposits in North America. It is a critical project for the US to establish a robust battery metal supply chain and represents a cornerstone asset for Trident. The group holds a 60 per cent share of the 8 per cent GRR on all mining products generated from Thacker Pass, reducing to 4 per cent (so 2.4 per cent share for Trident) after royalties of US$22mn have been repaid.

Lithium Americas, the project operator, has the right to reduce the GRR to 1.75 per cent (1.05 per cent attributable to Trident) by making a buy-back payment of US$22mn (US$13.2mn to Trident) at any time. Clearly, Lithium Americas will do that before production commences. That’s because the lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) price has risen more than fivefold from US$12,800 per tonne when Trident acquired the royalty in March 2021 to US$66,000 per tonne, driven by insatiable global demand for the battery metal.

Bearing this in mind, Lithium Americas has been moving forward with construction of the project, targeting annual production of 40,000 tonnes of LCE in the first phase, starting in 2026. It has also announced a joint venture with motor giant General Motors (NYQ:GM) to develop the project, the latter is making a $650mn equity investment. The only hurdle now is the consent of the US Federal Court. Given the history of the case, it should be forthcoming, thus enabling investors to focus their attention on the hidden value embedded in Trident’s royalty. Tamesis has made a stab, valuing it at $151mn (£121mn) on an un-risked basis, or 41.5p per share, a hefty sum for a £163mn market capitalisation company. It looks conservative given that Trident could be making $55mn in annual royalty earnings (post royalty buy-back) in the first phase alone.

Upside potential
Trident’s share price has risen 50 per cent since I initiated coverage 15 months ago (Alpha Research: 'A lowly rated commodity and green energy inflation hedge’, 1 November 2021), during which time the FTSE Aim All-Share Total Return index has lost 29 per cent of its value. Favourable court rulings on both Sonora and Thacker Pass in the coming months are likely to be strong catalysts for a re-rating, as is the resurgent gold price. Buy.”

Posted at 02/2/2023 08:36 by donald pond
IIRC enterprise value here is around $160m. So if this royalty produces $55m, it would, by itself, support a share price around 3 times the current level on a PE of 8. Given it's almost all profit, you could have a dividend of 15p from this alone. Sonora is similar I think. Add in everything else and a share price of £3/4 with a dividend of 30/40p in 3 years seems realistic, if that is the path the company goes onAnyone disagree?
Posted at 25/1/2023 20:50 by tonytyke2
Hi there, Just checking if anyone knows a date for the Q4 22 update......early Feb?In December it looked like TRR had around 10 Gold producing properties in the portfolio and we have seen around a 17%+ increase in the gold price since the 1st Oct, if my calcs are accurate. However, the share price today is slightly down from the 1/10/22. I assume these Lithium based appeals/decisions may be keeping a lid on the share price for now?Good luck all with you investments here.
Posted at 09/12/2022 09:35 by 74tom
Tamesis had Rebecca + Spring Hill valued at $13.6m in their January 22 note, so today's deal is a moderate premium to that but nothing that should move the share price. The 2% interest reduction on the debt is good news though.

Ultimately, isn't the future here all based on Thacker Pass & Sonora getting to production? Both have been severely delayed and uncertainty remains huge, IMO TRR will be taking a significant gamble if they pay the $23.5m for Sonora given the 'ambiguity' of government policy as highlighted in this article from a few months back;

I also note the following extract from January's broker note on the option payment;

"If the Sonora option is exercised, we estimate it would add an incremental US$25.3m or 6.5pps (10%) to our overall unrisked NAV taking the total to 72.6pps. By the time the final consideration comes to be paid (late 2022 or early 2023), we note that Sonora should be on the cusp of production and thus we would expect to apply minimal risking at that stage."

Clearly the risk is not minimal and production is nowhere near imminent, I suspect the share price will drop back considerably if they make the royalty payment before clarity is achieved on Sonora due to the increased financing risk should Sonora be delayed indefinitely.

Likewise, the Thacker Pass hearing on Jan 5th is fairly critical.

TRR is one for the watchlist for now, on approval of Thacker / Sonora it would be a buy but right now I feel too much is priced in at a £156m market cap.

Posted at 09/12/2022 08:27 by donald pond
a few points
Firstly, I think they may have felt they had a bit more gold exposure than they wanted. The company was set up to exploit the niche in the non precious metals space, and part of the rationale may have been rebalancing away from the initial gold heavy exposure.
The appointment of a third big broker recently suggested some sort of fundraise may be in the wings. If it happens we know it will be at the prevailing share price. It may be the company is going all out to get the share price up before that happens.
As has been stated, it means the company is cashed up for Sonoma, which could happen quickly. I suspect there are other deals in the wings.
It is hard to see how near trebling an investment in under 2 years in this market is anything other than a great achievement. Perhaps they could have made more by holding the royalty, but I am happy to trust them to run the company and can only assume they have other investments undergoing due diligence which they think will provide a better return.

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