Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 23/10/2020 11:57:33

theprovosts - thanks for alerting us to the latest "retail sales figures"

Of course since this is a Commercial property company with an emphasis on retail shops and pubs the pertinent part of the "retail" sales figures is that based on bricks and mortar.

Its is interesting to note that the comparisons used in the official figures are not year on year but instead Sep20 vs Feb 20

Feb 20 sales were down 0.9% on the previous month whilst the previous 3 Februarys had all seen good rises.

So they hand picked their comparison as pre-pandemic but we can see the impact had already started.

Against the year on year comparison Online sales grew 53%
Online sales were 27.5 % of All retailing - compared to 19.1% a year earlier

So despite the spin its clear that since overall sales were just above inflation growth , year on year store sales were actually down about 8%

Not all "good" news is good news for landlords.

Add to that the suggestion that these figures will not last as new lock-downs bite.

Whilst I commend the ONS for trying to talk up the economy - on this BB specifically investors should only be concerned for the reality of sales figures for actual shops and for pubs.

What is the extent of new shut downs impact re "wet let pubs" who do not offer food?

[theprovosts] 23/10/2020 08:53:30

Since Fenners tries to find any piece of negative news in tabloids slightly associated with NewRiver (which he doesnt hold, i.e. the standard BB Troll). Here's whats really happening:

"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% between August and September.

Spending on groceries remained high, but petrol sales were still down as motorists made fewer journeys.

Sales are now 5.5% higher than the pre-pandemic levels seen in February.

The three months to September saw the biggest quarterly increase on record, as retail sales volumes increased by 17.4% when compared with the previous three months."

[dhoult12] 22/10/2020 21:29:36

Haha fenners I had assumed you had already booked it out!

My personal bet is we will see prices for resellers on amazon rise 10% Post Jan 1st. On the basis a solid 70% were avoiding Vat wherever possible. What that means for the high Street who knows but it is a material change in pricing

[fenners66] 22/10/2020 18:00:13

Thanks for the info dhoult

do you know if seller 12345 Ltd has been taken yet .... ?

[dhoult12] 22/10/2020 17:07:18

Its not just that. I sell on Amazon and have no issue with competition.

What i do have an issue with is overseas sellers setting up a UK entity called "seller123 Ltd", charging VAT to customers via Amazon, then folding the company before passing any over to HMRC. Then starting "seller 1234 ltd" and doing the same thing.
Its been going on for years. For HMRC its whack a mole. Gives the seller a 20% cost advantage straight off the bat, as they can sell at 90% of their cost price and still make a profit - knocks all legal trades out of the game.

[dhoult12] 21/10/2020 16:48:16

For those in this space, just had the following come through from AMAZON. Reference collection of VAT... About time.. and should even things up a little against all those charging but not passing on VAT using their platform.



Starting 1 January 2021, as part of Brexit, a new set of VAT rules will apply in the UK. Please read this email as it contains potentially important information for your business.



If you are delivering goods to UK customers from outside of the UK:

o The current VAT exemption for sales of goods under £15 will be removed. All of your sales of goods will now be subject to VAT.

o If the shipment value of these goods does not exceed £135, Amazon will be required to collect and remit the applicable VAT.

o If the shipment value exceeds £135, you will still have to remit VAT and any import duties yourself, as you are currently doing.



If you are delivering goods to UK customers from inventory stored in the UK, and your place of establishment is outside of the UK, Amazon will be required to collect and remit the applicable VAT. This will affect both sellers who use FBA in the UK and those who use third-party fulfilment methods.

[fenners66] 16/10/2020 13:39:39

Greene King said it was cutting 800 jobs and closing 79 pubs and restaurants.

[candid investor] 12/10/2020 23:06:43

Hi Dhault...I have no comment to make on your Spurs debut !! Thanks for info on absence of retail. I share your scepticism re valuations and I was surprised the CEO didn't quash the suggestion out of hand immediately ...I agree there is likely to be some further devaluation based on not just the future restrictions but more importantly the likely direction of travel from here, regarding first local and eventually a national lockdown.
Regarding cash though ..that is actually in the bank as at 30 September due mostly to £50m cash received from asset sales. what is important though is that the business has also remained cash positive from trading alone, throughout the whole pandemic so far, which, (if this continues) means the cash pile will grow ..there will also be up to an additional £50 million from further asset sales so lots more cash than could ever be needed throughout the rest of the pandemic (assuming it doesn't last for a couple of years or more . Regarding repayment of loans, I was under the impression that a repayment event wasn't due until 2023...finally wrt LTV I agree it's important but don't get too hung up about it ..we are in unprecedented times and every business is affected ..the lenders are only really bothered about getting their money back as well as interest payments being made..I don't consider either of these to be a risk for NRR at the moment and I suspect they don't either..they will temporarily relax rules on LTV, they have to, otherwise they would probably have to recall all companies' debts which were asset backed..none of NRR's debts are asset backed which is a safety net against such eventualities.

[fenners66] 12/10/2020 18:39:50

"The loans were taken out around March, April this year but start being paid back after 12 months so we won't start seeing any real distress in the market until the first quarter of next year."

[vow] 12/10/2020 15:06:12

Covid in Scotland: Pub valuations hit by restrictions

20% less.

[dhoult12] 11/10/2020 22:58:56

Few points Candid

1- No retail as that presentation was meant to just be on the pubs. Not the whole REIT.

2 -Floundering reference asset uplift. Would suggest there is more chance of me turning out for spurs than as an asset uplift at 30/09. There will be a sizeable hit. How much is the bet.

3 - Reference cash. They havent built a cashpile of £140m. They have built a cashpile of £5m through actual trading since 31st March. The balance is either through asset sales or borrowings. They also suspended CapEx for £24m this year so its trading/trading not trading and investment for that £5m.

If you think that £140m is going on share buy backs im afraid you are likely to be disappointed. They have already stated the key aim is to get the LTV down again, which given the falling asset values will be a challenge but a worthwhile one.

[candid investor] 11/10/2020 21:07:49

I have just listened to the full presentation and saw the slides and I have a few observations ..it was a very articulate and well planned presentation thanks to having a CEO with an obsession for punctuality, (based on the number of occasions where he looked at his watch)..the overall purpose of these presentations is to reassure major shareholders and external commentators and opinion formers that the company is doing well, management have things under control and there is grounds for optimism for the future. I think they achieved that ..I would though comment on a few things, in the introductory remarks the CEO said that they had now collected over 90% of the rents for the 1st and 2nd quarters .they haven't, they have only collected 70%. They also mentioned some previous initiatives which they claimed had clearly demonstrated to have increased shareholder returns..try telling that to someone who bought the shares at £2...I was impressed by the Hawthorne Leisure presentation but nothing on retail ?? I thought the question about the prospect of having their assets revalued upwards at the half year following better than anticipated performance figures left the CEO floundering somewhat. I did though sense a clear pathway to the reinstatement of dividends in possibly quarter 3 but obviously token ones...in any case the previous dividends of 21.6 pence per share will not return in the foreseeable future, because they have always been unaffordable, plus they will now have sold or are planning to sell 10% of the business, so even when everything returns back to normal, dividends will have to be re-based to in my view 11-13 pence-ish...I can't wait to read the half year accounts to see if the results are matched by the upbeat nature of their presentation..the most positive aspect was the large increase in cash to £140 million plus more asset sales on the way...someone on here asked what would they do with all that cash ? Well how about buying back 20% of the shares before they become too expensive ?..that will then make the 21.6 pence per share dividend sustainable going forward ..particularly if there are no further devaluations to asset values and therefore LTV equations holds good..lots to consider...

[chucko1] 09/10/2020 18:10:30

They may well thrive, although possibly only after meaningful capex to augment the shopping with other reasons to travel there. Too much for some operators like INTU to bear.

But it was good to see that BLND reported a large return to retail parks, a sector which NRR is closely associated with.

I agree with your comment about offices - I suspect that regional offices will eventually emerge as winners from this episode. Regional/non-regional is detail the media has invested little thought in, but is the subject of varying opinions in the property magazines etc.

[gbjbaanb] 09/10/2020 17:45:40

They all say that, reality is different.

Eg I read a report that the majority of businesses will bring staff back into the office one the hysteria is over. That doesn't sound like the "everyone will work from home forever" vibe the sensational media loves to print. This will be no different, The shopping centres will thrive once people are allowed out.

[fenners66] 09/10/2020 17:24:44

"Lord Wolfson, who runs clothing firm Next, said there was a clear threat to thousands of jobs, which are now "unviable" because the lockdown has triggered a permanent shift to online shopping."

[chucko1] 09/10/2020 16:52:36

The current management are very good, but as you say, likely not with the flair that DL had. But I am not sure that it is relevant at this stage - they have what they have and the share price gets knocked from here to next week by events that are not within their control. i.e. eviction moratorium or rules regarding pubs. The long term value, however, will be determined by managing/developing the current portfolio/finances which require the more mundane skills (which I believe NRR does possess).

At the current share price, capital recovery is all you should care about for now, as I see that as a route to doubling the share price from this level. Perhaps more with a tail wind.

[essentialinvestor] 09/10/2020 15:42:06

BLAND today reconfirming the outperformance of retail parks re
shopping centres.

[dhoult12] 09/10/2020 09:20:23

In terms of "potential" divi. Just looking at the slides from yesterdays meeting - which are on the website now for others.

Cash excluding sales has increased ~ £5m in 6 months. Obviously P&L with revals wont be pretty.

Over a year £10m if performance continues, £10m * 90% = £9m.

£9m to a £183m market cap = ~5% if cash collections of rents doesnt improve etc. You would expect/hope the shortfall doesnt get worse and would jump up once/if the major chains such as Boots stop the game and pay up the arrears.

[panache1] 09/10/2020 08:38:46

BLND just re-instated their dividend. NRR need to do the same now.

[catsick] 09/10/2020 08:14:36

Looks like the presentation went down well

[diggybee] 09/10/2020 03:58:38

Would he turn down NRR here though.

[essentialinvestor] 09/10/2020 01:10:13

"...And I think my spaceship knows which way to go
Tell my wife I love her very much
She knows..."

Bowie turned down a CBE and knighthood.


Apologies for the randomness.

[diggybee] 09/10/2020 01:01:54

They clearly are yearning to distribute something. Even if the divvy just a penny a quarter I reckon in the immortal words of david bowie, check ignition and May gods love be with you?