Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[boonboon] 19/2/2021 22:53

Don't forget the development potential as well.

[nickrl] 19/2/2021 21:22

PropInv plenty of shopping centres available with yields >10% the quality of the majority is dubious though. As i said in #3562 there's no way this acquisition has an ERV of 14% more likely well below its current 11%. That said even if it drops back to a more likely 7-8% on borrowing rates its a good deal.

[chucko1] 19/2/2021 16:24

Prop, it's part of an arrangement with BRAVO. All deals are 10% and equal status. But NRR get to earn additional revenue, as I understand it, from advice given etc.

[propinv] 19/2/2021 16:18

Hmm. Worrying that they could only fork out £4m. Suspect 10% was absolute minimum JV partner would accept. It's probably a decent deal for NRR in isolation, but the spin they have put on this suggests the usual "talking good game approach". Now, if they can do 10 more of these, then I might change my view. Does their 10% rank equal or 1st loss. Be nice if they disclosed this

[chucko1] 19/2/2021 11:33

This is another of the JV deals they want to move into. Only 10% of the exposure, but additional revenue in advice, consultancy and such like. Likely IRR is very high when adding all the parts, but only on a small outlay.

Solid stuff.

[nickrl] 19/2/2021 10:19

My read is Bravo have acquired the asset so NRR only in for 10% of cost and income. Reversionary yield is clearly based on a valuation of at least 12mths ago and unlikely to be realised in the current environment. It has a roll call of failed and CVA businesses but they've got it at a reasonable price so gives them options.

[mcntrader] 19/2/2021 08:22

Nice new deals announced ... Yield of 11.3% and a reversionary yield of 14.6% ... good acquisition

[diggybee] 19/2/2021 08:17

Yes it does.

[boonboon] 19/2/2021 07:04

Sounds like a great acquisition today.

[mcntrader] 18/2/2021 18:40

RNS today ... IntegraLife increases their stake from ~4.5% to 5.5% ... good sign of confidence from a fund manager who manages ~£44bn ! Other major shareholders include JP Morgan - so get set of funds that are holding here

[chucko1] 05/2/2021 22:54

It is an IT. NAV is currently more than double the share price.

[davvero] 05/2/2021 20:15

I bought into NRR thinking it was an Investment Trust, with the share price different from NAV... It does not look like that. So - - Share price and Nav are exactly the same then?

[chucko1] 29/1/2021 14:48

I agree. NRR have prevented it becoming a cliff-edge issue by raising substantital cash, even if at the expense of a few pence OF NAV.

[nickrl] 29/1/2021 13:32

Chucko MARS development is interesting especially as the hedge fund isn't property centric so I wonder what there motive is in terms of strategic fit to there current portfolio.

At the end of the day NRR is largely a punt on whether you are an "everything has changed" or "things will get back to normal" person and the hedgies have deep pockets and v.cheap funds to make a punt on the latter. Viruses have come and gone before and they are transitory. OK things will be different but this is not a cliff edge issue like climate change where significant upheaval of the status quo is required to deal with the issue (we are only tinkering at the edges currently).

[chucko1] 29/1/2021 11:23

Fenners66, nice of you to assume the position of town crier. But the extent to which all the noise is in the share price is really the issue of substance. Do you have anything to offer on that?

PE interest in Marstons with a return of its share price to 85% of pre-covid levels (up 4x since March, in fact) bodes reasonably for NRR (or at least 25% of its estate) whose share price is firm today.

NRR as much, if not more, a play on absolute property values and development partnership than covid impact from here. Nevertheless, recent vaccine news pretty reasonable.

[fenners66] 29/1/2021 10:31

"The retail sector’s turmoil worsened over the past three months as figures from the BRC-LDC vacancy monitor showed 13.7 per cent of all shops were empty during the last quarter of 2020, a rise of 0.5 percentage points on the previous three months."

No surprise, expect it will get worse , Debenhams closing another 116 etc.

More supply has to effect rental renewals sooner or later even if they were not tenants.

[paulof2] 25/1/2021 21:45

Can’t help myself topping up more if these stay at similar prices tomorrow. If this isn’t above a quid within 6 months I’ll eat my hat.

[minerve 2] 25/1/2021 13:18

Lots of these shopping centres with Debenhams down the tubes will be redeveloped into residential apartments, leisure, restaurants etc.. Once COVID is out the way it will come back IMO. NRR are ideally positioned to benefit, just need to watch the accounts closely vs government's complete mess of handling this virus.

[gbjbaanb] 25/1/2021 11:47

When did NRR say they were going to run out of cash, pubs or otherwise?

If others have or will then there's a great opportunity to buy distressed property at cut down rate and run it well instead.

Fenners is just a troll now, Debenhams had been a basket case for so long I was in short trousers the last time they were successful. This is hardly a story.

[fenners66] 25/1/2021 11:15

Per BBC
"Fashion retailer Boohoo has bought the Debenhams brand and website for £55m.

However, it will not take on any of the firm's remaining 118 High Street stores or its workforce. "

So another 118 possibly anchor stores are closing.
There are some of these that are on retail parks not just old style high streets.

I have been arguing that there is serious decline in retail for years on here.
Taking Debs online only is clearly showing where retail is going.
Sure Covid has accelerated this but since this was the argument before covid its not the reason.

Whilst I salute those that bought these lower and are sitting on a healthy profit - well done, I cannot see the long term future since it has to be that rents across retail have to fall.

Couple that with the lockdown effect on pubs and some chains warning they may run out of cash...

[gbjbaanb] 22/1/2021 14:25

It's political, hence the idea that despite vaccinating people they can still get it so lockdown has to continue. They've stick their heads so far up... well, that they can no longer see anything other than lockdown forever.

It'll change, when the CRG in the Tory party threatens to stop supporting them, the ministers will start to override the "scientists" (who appear to be more interested in left wing social control than science)(Ferguson of never-knowingly-accurate included)

[dhoult12] 22/1/2021 13:59

Agree with you on pubs.. although rather than listening to the scientists this government seems to be run by them.

Already talk of lockdown till summer!(?)! You don't expect an epidemiologist to know the overall impact outside of the disease itself, which is why they shouldn't be making overall decisions. Madness.

[chucko1] 22/1/2021 13:23

Worth noting the reaffirmation of the Senior Unesecured rating at BBB+ stable.

The convenience stores will take care of themselves but the pubs need to reopen for the summer and beyond to take this to the next stage (which I see at 100p+). I still see 120p upwards as perfectly reasonable given the last few updates.

A 50% return for the now known risks seems a decent place to be.

[dhoult12] 22/1/2021 13:08

You would have thought so.
Will be interesting to see if its the development in SE London or part of it - from a cashflow going forward perspective.

Has to be some of the better ones unfortunately if they are going under offer as there are plenty out there that have no takers even at very low values. Hard to gauge a fair NAV in 2021 until clarity given on whats left on the asset side.

[scrwal] 22/1/2021 12:58

There must be some chunky bits of property sold to make up the £95.2m. I guess on completion a rns must be issued given the sizes involved.