Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[dhoult12] 08/10/2020 14:12

"The update is welcome and better than expected. But no retailer misses their Sept Qtr rent as that includes Xmas. Boxing Day is the one to watch."

Not really, given you cant be evicted right now. And certainly not if you avoided paying March and June.

Furthermore the overriding issue is the lack of being able to even chase properly till 31st Dec December. Some national chains will just avoid till then (unless extended).

[gbjbaanb] 08/10/2020 13:18

"Landlord New River REIT is pushing ahead with its plans to convert some of its retail and pub destinations into housing, it announced today, amid a challenging period for the sector"



It also said it had collected 66% of rents, and "The REIT’s retail and pub businesses were both cash positive throughout lockdown, it added."

[vow] 08/10/2020 13:02

The update is welcome and better than expected. But no retailer misses their Sept Qtr rent as that includes Xmas. Boxing Day is the one to watch.

[dhoult12] 08/10/2020 11:40

Another minor point but interesting that there is such a material difference between the decline in the pubs with outsourced management (9%) against own managed (16%).

Might just be location.. but always thought a pub landlord did a better job than a manager.

[dhoult12] 08/10/2020 11:29

That development has been rumbling on since 2016?

More residential makes sense.

With regards to valuations, yes the comparison to the decline suffered by others in their June interims (published Sept) is misleading. Ultimately the last balance sheet date for those REITs is Dec19. So no CV 19 impact.

This has had a bad March 2020 - i would still expect more though coming through, just not on the same level.

Also some of the comparisons such as capital and legal have very specific issues. Their Luton asset which is highly material is taking a tanking due to other developments.

[nickrl] 08/10/2020 11:18

provost half of that 140m will go on Burgess Hill if they push go but given its anchored by a multiplex they may well be prudent to bide there time.

[theprovosts] 08/10/2020 10:45

With a year end of 31/03 NRR suffered a writedown of 17.6% on its Regional shopping centres. All these asset write downs people talk of are partly / mostly priced in.

"our £45 million of undrawn revolving credit facilities and our eligibility for £50 million of financing under the Covid Corporate Finance Facility ('CCFF'), which the Company currently has no need or intention to draw, the Company has total available liquidity of £235 million."

"Will it be able to get through this without a fund raise?" I was wondering when the trolls were going to give their tuppence on their perceived lack of cash increases?

The question here is what on earth are NewRiver going to do with £140 million in cash. Im guessing they are waiting to see what Covid will throw up next, but the growing consensus is we just need to live with it, and any further restrictions will meet growing resentment due to lowering death rates approaching seasonal flu.

[flyfisher] 08/10/2020 10:17

The bigger issue seems to be what asset write down will it suffer this year and what the subsequent LTV will be.

With a year end of 31/03 LAND suffered a writedown of 27.5% on its regional retail and 25.5% on its retail parks, and that only covers the initial covid impact.

A 20% writedown would push NRR LTV to 54% against a 60% covenant.

It is keen to sell assets, but the only large asset it has managed to sell is the one it bought last year.

Will it be able to get through this without a fund raise?

[nickrl] 08/10/2020 09:19

They should have referenced the impact of the 10pm curfew across Hawthorn theres not one pubco group listed or not saying its having a detrimental impact and as provosts points out thats before imposition of restrictions in the North which will cut across part of the estate if imposed.

That said rental income stats very transparent and are again evidence of the propco sector implementing the 'code of conduct' and taking the pain but not being supported by the government over the can pay but wont fraternity.

Im surmising monthlies is included in the collected stat and deferral are payments to come at some point - a couple of others have indicated when those payments are likely - so at cash level looks working assumption should 70%.

[theprovosts] 08/10/2020 08:17

Lets hope for a decent support package over the weekend if pub restrictions are put in place.

Cash Is King.

[chucko1] 08/10/2020 08:01

Looks like they could be good for a restoration of up to 40% of dividend based purely on the numbers. But there was no mention of shareholders at all, so perhaps not uppermost in their thoughts at present with threats of further restrictions around the corner.

For me, the sales of part of their portfolio at close to book is important. The LTV of up to 47% has freaked the market. To the patient, this has outperformance writ large. Just not in 2020, most probably.

[lord gnome] 08/10/2020 07:54

Even turning the divi back on at a 'mere' 50% would spark a feeding frenzy. I can't see that happening right now, but maybe 6p per annum would set things in the right direction. Here's hoping.

[irishmatt] 08/10/2020 07:49

At some point they have to given REIT rules though they could convert out of being a REIT but I don't see that happening

[catsick] 08/10/2020 07:41

Update looks pretty good , trading well and the unpaid rent more than covered by the div holidays , My guess is at some point soon they can reach agreement with the bulk of the tenants and turn the div back on at 75% and spark a huuuge rally

[spectoacc] 08/10/2020 07:21

Fire and brimstone will fall, and the dead shall rise from the grave.

It read pretty well to me.

[thomasearnshaw] 08/10/2020 07:12

15-20% of rents remain uncollected running into £millions

most of its tenants in ghost towns will vacate as leases expire

[candid investor] 07/10/2020 18:39

Thanks Essential ..it was in looking at other REIT's like SREI but particularly CAL that caused me to doubt my own conviction to this share so I was keen to listen to how others on here saw the situation ...I did go on to the UKCM board but couldn't find skyships post on the choice of alternatives..I couldn't resist making a post on there though wrt UKCM..

[diggybee] 07/10/2020 06:29

Imagine if they paid a dividend.

[essentialinvestor] 07/10/2020 00:08

candid, no one can answer that question for you for a very good reason,
they are not you. The answer depends on individual risk tolerance, timeframe, size of position,
reason and rational for that stock selection etc.


On the Commerial Property board, Skyship has provided a list of REITS selling on large NAV discounts
paying a dividend and with low current LTV's. Perhaps a better question would be, why NRR rather than those on that list. Good fortune with any decision.

[gbjbaanb] 07/10/2020 00:03

"buy when others are fearful"

[candid investor] 06/10/2020 19:01

As things now Buy Sell or Hold and why ?

[theprovosts] 06/10/2020 16:01

Yes no doubt a lot of the institutions are using Covid as an excuse to clear the slate, and start from scratch, even if it means extortionate losses (its not their money after all, but the clients). Its quite hard to hide a stock overhang in any share, hence the bots exaggerating any fall searching for liquidity. So many shares offering solid 7% yields, long term I doubt we'll see such good buying opportunities again in our lifetime.

[chucko1] 06/10/2020 15:49

I had noticed - and made a little profit from it. Instead of holding on for too long here, (I sold too early, as it happens) there are many other shares where funds are throwing in the towel as they believe they can justify their "risk management" to their investors saying "look how un-Covid-exposed we are now", but are worth taking a good look at. Some funds invest on the basis that investors cannot sustain underperformance for more than three years - that is the period after which fund holders themselves can tolerate no more.

In a market like this, if you cannot tolerate problems for three years, you are toast. (assuming you can identify the transient from the fatal).

For the avoidance of confusion, I still hold my original investment here which is 7x what I traded recently on the back of the huge 16mn sale the other day. Yet another freebie.

[theprovosts] 06/10/2020 15:19

Anyone else notice the layering of the book which has been going on for months has now ceased somewhat. Norges, Blackrock and quite possibly one of the other founding shareholders (along with Woodford, Invesco) overhang seems to be clearing. Level 2 isn't so weighted now. Long term investment, but still nice to see the suppression has been lifting. Big buys pushing it up rather than filling the sell order.