Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[scrwal] 21/1/2021 13:03

The disposals are slow but was surprised to see that £95.2m is now under offer. Slightly disappointing that the discount to March values has risen from 3% on £65.7m to 6% on £157.4m but that is a sign of the times.

Hard to guess the divi but could be 4-6p and hopefully a definitive policy is laid down for the immediate future even if the first three quarters are on the low side with the final payment being a catch up one.

[nickrl] 21/1/2021 12:23

Update today



Retail rental collection at 70% but say this will improve and Q3 has moved from 72% to 82% in 3mths.

Say disposals will be ahead of plan but they've only completed on another 3m since the Q3 update despite they said then they have 8m they had exchanged on so its not a quick process but at least there is a market out there.

No mention on dividend policy but assuming 80% NRI at the cash level should leave a cash surplus for a 4-5p divi imo.

[lord gnome] 18/1/2021 17:12

Slowly sneaking higher again. We are due the Q3 update anytime now. Not expecting any fireworks from looking in the rear view mirror, but hopefully the market will be anticipating better times ahead. Still hoping for a small final dividend when the annual results are announced.

[vow] 23/12/2020 15:38

Slightly better news that Marstons has stepped in to take over the chain of Brains pubs. Will be interesting to see the terms though as if brutal could be signs of things to come for other pubs. But at least there is some optimism in pubs.

Covid: Marston's to run Brains pubs, saving 1,300 jobs

[lord gnome] 22/12/2020 22:34

Less with the Boomer, daffy :-))

[smidge21] 22/12/2020 22:08

If you care to read the article and a fraction of the bibliography, then you'll see there are too many big words for FB

[chucko1] 21/12/2020 18:04

I actually have no idea now, given the volatility of the Tier system and what that allows. But much of NRR's portfolio is essential retail, as opposed to clothing and such-like, so the effect should be muted. It could mean that the improvement to scenario 2 is stalled and they remain in scenario 2.5 - which would impact the ability to pay the dividend they now seem to have in mind. Or at least reduce it.

My own view is that April to June has been the target for full(ish) reopening of pubs as summer approaches and vaccine distribution strangles the then diminishing rate of virus transmission. But I see a terrible January and Feb, and I did worry that we would see a frantic sell-off in buses, trains, planes and leisure as the virus let rip once again, especially after the near 100% rise in some of these stocks. However, I also believe that their pubs, overall, will prove far more resilient than expected - in that their tenants will continue to pay rent.

In the big scheme of things, I am assuming that the recovery has been put back by 3 months, but that they remain cash generative in the meantime and so the long term is the only term for battered, but essentially fine, stocks like NRR.

Interesting to note that at the time of writing, the DOW has recovered all its lost 450 points. This morning an overreaction?

[hillock1] 21/12/2020 17:39

chucko1, although the mass availability of vaccines still in sight, the current situation still looks dismal. Seems the pub business of Newriver has been closed for a longer time. Do you have any idea how many % of the Newriver retail is classified as "essential", i.e. still opening for business even in this environment? thanks

[gbjbaanb] 21/12/2020 09:37

If only there were some in government policy making like you 😀

[chucko1] 21/12/2020 08:52

PS. Now just bought back half of what I sold!! One just never knows, day to day, but that does not excuse panicking as we just saw this morning. So in protest, I have decided to anti-panic.

[chucko1] 20/12/2020 11:22

I do still hold that view. I wrote the previous post prior to the late 3-5p drop, so I am not sure I can say I was too surprised.

I've sold a few (not many) in the 80s - but only because it rose so fast it overtook other REITs I feel are almost as good a long term bet at their own current prices (adjusted for my own portfolio risk).

I do not believe a further 3 months of pain is really material at this stage, although it may be for certain investors tolerance. These are two entirely separate things and may give rise to opportunities for the patient.

My sense is that Oxford will announce late December and that the virus mutation is not significant from an effectiveness perspective. In terms of some businesses and the NHS and politics, the short term cold be brutal as the behaviour of the population nears or exceeds its elastic limit.

[candid investor] 20/12/2020 09:48

Do you still hold that view Chucko..The latest news might be a blip or a giving up of recent rapid gains..my concerns are that future virus mutations occur which render the current vaccines ineffective..that would change everything ...hope that doesn't occur..

[chucko1] 18/12/2020 13:56

NRR appears to be obeying a popular hedge fund maxim: you know when an asset has reached its low because no further bad news has any downward impact on its price. The news has not really been tremendous recently, but it keeps crunching higher.

Do I feel sorry for the fund which sold a load at 46p? - no, I am merely content to have bought a few from them. It has travelled 60% back to my principle target of 120p, but I am not sure the rest of the journey is completed nearly as rapidly as the first part. 45% discount to NAV with some dividend expectations baked in is a more reasonable value now.

[okosling] 09/12/2020 19:16

Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on real estate investment trust NewRiver from 75.0p to 90.0p on Wednesday but noted that prospects for the group's two segments, retail and pubs, remained "materially differentiated".

Berenberg said although NewRiver's first-half results highlighted the "operational resilience of the business", despite building headwinds across the retail sector and Covid-19 pandemic impacts, the group's performance was likely to deteriorate further before any recovery materialises.

The German bank, which reiterated its 'hold' rating on the stock, stated that NewRiver's retail portfolio would "remain challenged", with further tenant insolvency events likely to reduce passing income, while high and growing national retail vacancy rates and little occupational demand looked set to leave rents and valuations "depressed".

Turning to Hawthorn, NewRiver's community pub business, although the performance of the wet-led pubs was "materially affected" by the spring lockdown, the first tiered restrictions system, then lockdown 2.0 and now the tougher second tier system, Berenberg said there was still "cause for optimism".

[diggybee] 09/12/2020 07:07

I agree. 1.20.....Might be a hurdle to overcome and take time but eventually should be higher than that too. And by then will be collecting quarterly dividends again while we wait.

[jaws6] 09/12/2020 06:48

2 broker buy today JEFF 100 p and 90 p BY B BERG

[candid investor] 04/12/2020 19:15

Chucko .. I think you and I share the same outlook ..I recommended to HOLD on Fri 27th November at 75p...it promptly fell to 70p on Monday but thankfully bounced back and took off.. The pace of upward moment now taking place suggests more share price increases to follow.....no new announcements by NRR expected, to burst the bubble and on the face of it no more desperate sellers or anyone shorting the stock ...I will be holding out for £1.20 before selling. I think this is the point where the risk of holding further exceeds the potential of further gains..

[marksp2011] 03/12/2020 18:52

Sold some today. I have too many and the rises lately have doubled my UK exposure. Great for the bottom line but too much money in stuff I don't really like and only bought because it was money on the pavement

[chucko1] 03/12/2020 16:31

Perhaps one or two have begun to see it from my point of view!! All this needs is a fair wind.

[nickrl] 03/12/2020 14:10

Chucko agree with that and its a fools paradise to work out currently where NAV will end up as there are pulls in both directions on NAV. We can be sure that most of the estate is probably over rented as well so NRI will be depleted for many years to come but that will still support 8-10p divi imv.

Some other positives can be seen in the fact the big supermarkets, well 3 so far, are paying there rates and that has read across to other essential retailers being in good shape. Theres always a queue outside our local CoOp whatever the time of day and remember online for supermarket is hardly a money spinner.

No doubt more bad news will emerge but quite frankly the likes of BonMarche have been on a slow death for years anyhow. I also don't see Debenhams as that big a risk in terms of collateral damage to NRR many other retailers will pick up trade foregone. Also given the store size of most of the estate it will lend itself to conversion to RESI, flexible offices or even gyms and other community style operations. Debenhams paid low rents as well so wouldn't be surprised to see some landlords benefitting from having them out of long leases anyhow.

In respect of Arcadia my shopping centre had three outlets but they were consolidated into one unit a few years back and the vacancies quickly picked up by other operators as they tend to be in reasonable locations.

[hillock1] 03/12/2020 13:40

totally agree chuck01

As per its latest presentation, it said, after Sprucefield disposal, "BRAVO JV has made acquisitions totalling £143.7 million (NewRiver share: £38.5 million) "

hopefully, the company can begin to make some (good)acquisitions, either directly or through the JV, can take advantage of the still depressed price of some assets. At least partially offset the loss of the income of the Sprucefield disposal.

[diggybee] 03/12/2020 13:05

That it isnow a going up stock?

[chucko1] 03/12/2020 13:00

dhoult, it is pretty clear to me (at least) that the future price of NRR is likely to be determined by factors which have changed radically over the past year. Most importantly, perhaps, is the factor relating to those who had to sell - often for reasons entirely uncorrelated to how many pairs of knickers or bottles of perfume which are sold at Debenhams. There appear to be no meaningful sellers left, absent a further calamity, whatever that might be.

The recovery of wet pubs associated with a minor third virus wave is likely underpriced. Many community wet pubs will manage to find a way to the other side of this, as the community will often time move to assist them. It goes beyond merely commercial. Shops and rents seem pretty solid and it was useful to get further clarity on how these have been performing over the various phases of distress thrown at them.

There are unknown positives to play out - though they may take some time to crystalise; the asset management gains relative to NAV converting parts of their portfolio is likely to far exceed the losses to March NAV from sales to strengthen the balance sheet. We see the near term pain more clearly than the longer term potential especially as this potential involves a few unknowns. As and when this changes, I see us nearer to 100p and rather higher than this once rent collection rates move north of 90% and some of the development unknowns become clearer.

If you try and analyse NRR minute to minute from today's news flow, you are missing the investment prospectus here completely.