Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 24/11/2020 09:47

I think this company will look very similar to how it now does! They will invest in and manage community retail and own and develop pubs. It will have lost value, for sure - just not as much as is currently in the price. Favour changes quickly, but I think they have a good shot at very significant recovery. That will become clearer in a few months, but the market is more prepared to see through the fog on other stocks right now. That said, this has rallied 70% since the last huge sale - and there appear to be no further desperate sellers now.

My target remains 120p+

[theprovosts] 24/11/2020 09:42

hmmm.... maybe because NAV is at £2? Cue deramping fools who have missed the boat. Choo choo.

[kpustovalov] 24/11/2020 09:26

Any specific reason for price going up except general excitement about vaccines?

[vow] 24/11/2020 09:15

Looks like I sold too early! Congrats to those that held their nerve. Long term this will be a VERY different company to what it was before so don’t expect too much.

[dhoult12] 18/11/2020 20:31

BLND 15% Decline in retail assets valuationfrom March to September. 62% rent collected from those assets from the September qr.
NRR had collected 69% by 8th of October so would expect slash hope higher by now - for context.

[paulof2] 09/11/2020 19:13

Was waiting for this day to come..

[asmodeus] 09/11/2020 16:26

Indeed - share price up 18.9% today, it says here.

[candid investor] 09/11/2020 15:07

Also Chucko let's not overlook the impact on asset values...once properties start to be revalued rather than devalued then statutory losses become statutory profits which puts this share in a completely different category. The share price will be uplifted alongside the asset price..LTV will fall back to less than 40% again so no more assets need to be sold...just think what the share price impact would have been if they had bought back 20% of the shares when they were only 48p as I suggested at the time. Nevertheless, this is good news.

[chucko1] 09/11/2020 14:32

Patience will continue to be rewarded on this. Better visibility on cash flows will re rate this in time. A good vaccine outcome, given they secured their liquidity, should move this towards a less risk-averse valuation.

[grahamburn] 04/11/2020 14:11

Agreed, VOW.

Let's stick to comments which are directly relevant to NRR.

[vow] 03/11/2020 07:53

I’m sure there is a different thread for this conversation.

[gbjbaanb] 03/11/2020 02:29

Cases mean nothing. If we tested for the common cold case would be in the millions every year, yet nobody cares because it doesn't harm many people. So you have to look at sars-cov-2 the same, is not cases that matter bit the harm. Which is perhaps why the media stopped caring about deaths and now only dates about cases. Whichever is the most sensational number.

Sweden probably is a good example, it's certainly one that should be looked at just to see what effects they have had from their policies and learning from that.

I think the lockdown is priced in as I expected a much bigger drop in the share price today that never came. Maybe Thursday will be different after the view by MPs who are currently being shown anger by their constituents, and a potential end to their careers by Farage.

[candid investor] 02/11/2020 23:29

Kenmitch..yes I did look at your link and did indeed see the 4 cases reported for yesterday ..need to be careful though about drawing conclusions from one day especially a Sunday ...the article also shows that there have been 5,938 deaths which for a country of 10 million equates to 594 deaths per million of the population...UK which is one of the highest has 689 deaths per million....more interesting is the number of cases per 100,000. Out of 45 countries in the whole of Europe, the UK is 14th highest with 1552 cases per 100,000. Again the UK is one of the highest ..Sweden is 22nd highest with 1215 cases per 100,000 population ...I think it's more relevant to compare Sweden with the other Scandinavian countries and there have been far more cases per 100,000 population in Sweden than there have been in the other Scandinavian countries...in Denmark the figure is 815 in Norway it is 367 and Finland has the lowest number of cases in the whole of Europe at just 295 cases per 100,000 population .. I don't think Sweden is a good example to use to promote a strategy of dealing with the pandemic...

[kenmitch] 02/11/2020 21:14

Candid investor.

Did you look at that link in my previous post?

Sweden has around 20 in intensive care and latest deaths figure is just 4. What the UK Government and bombed out ratail, travel and hospitality sectors would give for figures like that!

Agree btw that UK lockdown is not good news for NRR but is that priced in?

[effortless cool] 02/11/2020 21:01

I took my loss on these today. Struggling to see any upside this side of 2021 and plenty of potential for further bad news.

Good luck to holders.

[candid investor] 02/11/2020 20:41

Kenmitch..The UK has a population of 68 million whereas Sweden's population is only 10 million so you have to base the calculation on cases/deaths per million population ..on a cumulative basis as at 2nd November UK has had 15,496 cases per million with Sweden on 12,287..in the UK there has been 689 deaths per million and Sweden has had 587 deaths per million ...that shows the rapid rate of acceleration in Sweden in both cases and deaths in the second wave , given the extremely low relative rates of Sweden to UK after first wave..

[kenmitch] 02/11/2020 19:02

Death rates in Sweden from covid are between zero and 4 a day during this second phase. More on this link:-

[candid investor] 02/11/2020 18:17

Gbjbaamb...well I didn't realise that wearing a face mask was idiotic...I think you should tell the NHS that..think of the money they would save if surgeons , doctors nurses et al didn't wear masks.. .when doctors and nurses contracted Covid before ppe arrived , they were just unlucky, likewise when patients picked up Covid IN hospitals prior to PPE they were unlucky too . When Trump and most of the people who attended that by now famous event at the Whitehouse maskless, became infected with Covid, they were unlucky too, conversely when the black lives matter demonstrations took place in America where most people did wear masks yet infections were few, then they were just lucky. Rather than quote one piece of journalism from Deb Cohen who nobody has ever heard of, I suggest you do more research...a very good accumulation of lots of pieces of different research appeared in the Independent on 6th October..that is more relevant and up to date than one piece of journalism written back in July. ..I also think you should do more research about Sweden , they largely avoided the pandemic the first time around but have suffered significantly the second time around..to the extent that their cumulative rate of infections is now the same as the UK...it also seems that your prediction of a rout in the markets today didn't happen either. Gbjb...I welcome intelligent debate on here if it is that...intelligent ..I also welcome respectful communications...you offer neither...BLOCKED...

[gbjbaanb] 02/11/2020 13:01

Well the government could look at Sweden and ask "what did they do that seems to have worked out well", and follow that evidence. But we don't do evidence any more, we do scaremongering and fear and cronyism. Blair has power up today to say even if a vaccine doesn't work we must have it anyway. Sunak has said they hope to end lockdown in December... meaning they probably won't, Christmas is cancelled after all.

[fenners66] 02/11/2020 12:06

Listened to Toxic O'Leary this morning he really does not seem to care a jot about people and putting health before profit - I'm sure he would keep all the shops /pubs / gyms /raves open.....

[fenners66] 02/11/2020 12:03

If this does seriously impact NRR - I think it will especially in the long run as we get more and more used to buying online/drinking at home - it should not come as a surprise.

We have known all year that it was a race between the winter (winter flu was a clue) and a vaccine.

Covid is winning the race - I can wait until next year to go shopping so can many others.....

[vow] 02/11/2020 10:55

The gamble is between a semi decent barebones trade deal in Brexit negotiations v all their tenants having their most profitable period of the year wiped out.

I’m on the later and have sold out for now as I for one am not gambling on December shops and pubs opening and buying my gifts online now and have ordered the meat for a home cooked meal. Can see many doing the same. January sales could help cash flow but unlikely to save their Xmases.

[gbjbaanb] 02/11/2020 02:09

And November has Black Friday in our anyway, I heard someone say that it will become black Fridays all month long as they either get rid of stock in closing down sales or try to get whatever money in they can.

I'm going to try and be optimistic for business, but I think it's going to be like they 70s again very soon (but without the awesome music)

[nickrl] 01/11/2020 22:52

November a low month for pubs let alone this year so Hawthorn can furlough everyone so shouldn't be damaged too much. Also can't see them leaving non essential retail shut in December so depends how many retailers want a rebate or are already on turnover rents. The can pay wont pay merchants are already factored in on current collection rates and ultimately the liability hasn't gone away with those that haven't done a CVA, or wouldn't get approval for one.