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NRR Newriver Reit Plc

4.00 (5.90%)
12 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Newriver Reit Plc LSE:NRR London Ordinary Share GB00BD7XPJ64 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  4.00 5.90% 71.80 71.10 71.20 71.40 68.20 68.50 724,002 16:35:03
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Real Estate Investment Trust 73.6M -16.8M -0.0537 -13.26 222.57M
Newriver Reit Plc is listed in the Real Estate Investment Trust sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NRR. The last closing price for Newriver Reit was 67.80p. Over the last year, Newriver Reit shares have traded in a share price range of 67.70p to 92.00p.

Newriver Reit currently has 312,603,487 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Newriver Reit is £222.57 million. Newriver Reit has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -13.26.

Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3701 to 3724 of 4350 messages
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Thanks Chucko, that was an excellent analysis all of which I agreed with , although I don’t think you can totally ignore UFFO even at this stage, because of the direct cash link it has with the affordability of any year end dividends and reduction of debt..I was interested in the half year position to try and roll that forward to the end of the year...It’s good that all non essential retail can open but pubs portfolio will encounter a further hit...Yes, I did note that they had moved up to risk scenario 2 which is good news, that I think could have been made more prominent in the report, particularly given that they began the year preparing for risk scenario 4... Totally agree that liquidity is the main priority which in itself leads to debt reduction and on that score there is no liquidity risk whatever happens (within reason).....yes NRR was hit by a meteor and yet they were still able to reduce debt (even excluding asset sales) , due to a positive UFFO unencumbered by a matching dividend.. I also agree with your gearing up of future dividend payments although I am less optimistic with the timescale you suggest..I think there will be a time lag due to lower rent receipts pending the recovery of retailing even after reopenings...Like you I think the pubs portfolio will recover more quickly going into the spring and summer...If you haven’t already, check out their business models with both the leased and tenanted and managed portfolios and you can see that NRR is not exposed to any risk with regard to staff costs within pubs...very shrewd and I also agree that the management are competent and fleet of foot..Finally, yes I agree that future revenue cash flows, once the pandemic is over, will ultimately lead to positive asset revaluations and restoration of dividends (albeit at a rebased level) but it will take the scenic route to get there....Having read your analysis and compared it with mine I have reached my own conclusion .. HOLD...
candid investor
Selling £50mn of assets would have reduced the LTV by a few percent - except they just stood still (increase by 1%, in fact) owing to 8.6% fall in property values (by memory). The implied that they got some properties away which they were less fond of, and achieved March 2020 NAV minus 6% on these sales. A step in the right direction and I can see them selling more and soon.

That sounds OK so far. But a lot further to go in this respect which will start to hurt a little. There is already a lot of hurt discounted in the price - still at less than 50% of NAV - and the mid 40s is probably a thing of the past. I believe they can afford to pay a dividend of 8p (so 2ppq) at year end rising to 3ppq by year end 2021. This assumes 80% normality by mid year and improvement thereafter. I do not think they will pay such an amount in the near term, though, as they need to remain conservative until they know the coast is clear.

I was encouraged by the July numbers they cited and their gearing up with partners to transform properties into residential. There will need to be quite a bit of the latter and the former is merely what can be achieved in better, although not perfect times. They say they have moved up half a tier from scenario 2-3 to scenario 2. This is worth 4% of revenue and it's not as though their hospitality values have been treated kindly.

As for UFFO etc. this is barely relevant at this stage, IMO. Liquidity is first followed by debt reduction. Dependable pub re-openings and increased retail revenue will take the pressure off this as they get back to, say, 90% of previous rental income. This would support a reversal of asset price declines and also a return to meaningful dividend. I find for REITs that the quality of management, position of balance sheet and the macro prospects of the underlying property class are far more important in the long term than microscopic examination of cashflows.

NRR got smacked by a meteor and this has caused some damage. But in the medium term, much value can be restored, especially as the management are pretty good and I believe have shown this with their rapid balance sheet strengthening.

I tripled up at 67p (average) and my target is still around 120-130p. But that is some way away with lots of ups and downs on the way. I did sell 5% of my holding today at 82p or so - only because the overall REIT market has been on an epic rip and I just have to sell things from time to time on the way up. And NRR has rallied nearly 80% the past month or so.

Don't forget, the 46p level we saw was the result of the third of three sales representing nearly 65% of the stock. And a complete crisis in all of its business lines. I suspect anyone who has wanted to sell, for just about any non-trading reason I can think of, has now done so. Unless people start dying from the vaccine!

In terms of IC, their record is random. They can point to matters of concern, but unless they connect that to a flow of income and explain how that results in some sort of calculated price, it is of no value.

IC says sell?
Buy as much as you can!

IC still has this as a sell today. They seem unimpressed. Lazy bit of journalism though. Clearly only a very superficial knowledge of NRR.
lord gnome
Well it's the prudent approach. Next year we hope will be a Covid better year as vaccine gets rolled out at boots on nrr estates
Chucko...what is your take on the half year accounts ?
candid investor
The Investors Chronicle did an article on NRR this morning and recommended a SELL.. does anyone know whether or not the Investors Chronicle has a good reputation with its recommendations,,,the last time they looked at NRR they also recommended a SELL at £2.06. They are still recommending a SELL even at 80p...they point to rapidly reducing LTV with further more significant falls likely to come ..its worth noting that LTV barely changed even with £50 million of asset sales...they can’t keep selling off assets . I have to say that I wasn’t as impressed by the numbers as I was hoping first sight it seemed that UFFO of £9 million was good..but this disguised the fact that this included £5 million of one off fire insurance receipts and dilapidation compensation from a brewery for prior acquisitions ...both of these should have been shown as one off exceptional items...not as UFFO, so true UFFO was closer to £5 million It also appears that the recent upward trend in share price is losing momentum. Apart from increasing LTV, the other hidden risk is their discreet acknowledgement that they hold a surplus of retail space, and that to re-purpose this will take time, there was no mention in the half year report about the repurposing value of retail assets which were apparently underpinning the value of retail assets on the Balance Sheet at the previous year end...well this didn’t prevent a further asset devaluation of 8.6% .. A few things to ponder over at the weekend...I am very concerned about the Investors Chronicle SELL this a reputable magazine or is it more like the Motley Fool with its superficial analysis...actually the M.F. had an article on NRR today recommending a BUY... I am genuinely torn with NRR whether to cash in my profits (bought in at 60 pence) or whether to remain invested and hold out for more profits....thoughts please..
candid investor
Surprised that the quarterly div not reinstated even if it's 1p with the final making up any shortfall below the 90% criteria.
"Following Sprucefield disposal, BRAVO JV has made acquisitions totalling £143.7 million (NewRiver share: £38.5 million)"

I am pleased that the company has started to make some acquisition, hopefully to capture some assets at depressed price, especially the loss of some income after the disposal of the Sprucefield.

UFFO was 3p for the half year so reasonable expectation of 6p for the full year which would mean a divi of ~5p.

Big question is when the memorandum of chasing is lifted that o/s rent comes in. Implied most of it is from major retailers who are just using the memorandum as a reason not to pay rather than cant pay.

Obviously if that comes in, falls straight to the bottom line so would have a big impact on UFFO. Of course believe it when i see it - personal expectation is they will cough up in return for signing a new lease, perhaps extended with favourable terms. we will see.

Yes looks decent to me, generally generated decent cash, lettings doing well and valuations lower but at these prices the yields are eye watering
Covered dividend to resume at full year
That looks to be a pretty solid update to my untrained eyes. Looks like we will get at least some dividend reinstated with the finals. The share price should continue to recover and I think we will see at least £1 by final results day. Nothing scientific in that prediction by the way, so don't take me to task for it.
lord gnome
The remaining pubs will flourish once the vaccine is on the cards and if not they’re doing a good job of selling or converting them.

My main worry here is the high street positions but once again they can easily cope with that. I agree in part this may not return to £2.10 for some time but I really wouldn’t be surprised if this was say £1.50 in the not so distant future.

78p suggests one or more players might think so!
What chance they announce dividends resuming this week too?
I think this company will look very similar to how it now does! They will invest in and manage community retail and own and develop pubs. It will have lost value, for sure - just not as much as is currently in the price. Favour changes quickly, but I think they have a good shot at very significant recovery. That will become clearer in a few months, but the market is more prepared to see through the fog on other stocks right now. That said, this has rallied 70% since the last huge sale - and there appear to be no further desperate sellers now.

My target remains 120p+

hmmm.... maybe because NAV is at £2? Cue deramping fools who have missed the boat. Choo choo.
Any specific reason for price going up except general excitement about vaccines?
Looks like I sold too early! Congrats to those that held their nerve. Long term this will be a VERY different company to what it was before so don’t expect too much.
BLND 15% Decline in retail assets valuationfrom March to September. 62% rent collected from those assets from the September qr.
NRR had collected 69% by 8th of October so would expect slash hope higher by now - for context.

Was waiting for this day to come..
Indeed - share price up 18.9% today, it says here.
Also Chucko let's not overlook the impact on asset values...once properties start to be revalued rather than devalued then statutory losses become statutory profits which puts this share in a completely different category. The share price will be uplifted alongside the asset price..LTV will fall back to less than 40% again so no more assets need to be sold...just think what the share price impact would have been if they had bought back 20% of the shares when they were only 48p as I suggested at the time. Nevertheless, this is good news.
candid investor
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