Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Centamin LSE:CEY London Ordinary Share JE00B5TT1872 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +1.12p +1.18% 95.86p 95.74p 95.82p 96.24p 94.02p 95.20p 2,932,809 15:10:43
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 500.1 165.9 14.3 6.5 1,106.92

Centamin Share Discussion Threads

Showing 51601 to 51625 of 51625 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
19/9/2018
15:16
'Siko's post on LSE was also interesting re. August's EMRA payment being almost double that of June and July combined, indicating that projected profit was seriously up, so bodes well for profits September onwards.' what'st the link so I can read the full post please?
bor491
19/9/2018
13:53
Another way to view the buffer is, it allows Centamin to use 100% of net cash flow to go towards dividend. The interim was 80% of H1 net cash. So the remaining 20% could be added to the final dividend together with 100% of H2. My bet is that H2 net cash will be between 80-100 million, so you can see how you can easily get to a final dividend of 7.5-10 cents.
casual47
19/9/2018
13:20
From the latest site visit presentation slide: H1 capex budget was $64m. Of that $51m is sustaining capital, ie. included in AISC figure so already deducted to arrive at net cash flow figure. So growth capex that isn't sustaining is fairly small. So leaves quite a bit of the potential buffer from the "minimum $250-300m cash balance". Dividend policy; Minimum divi is 30% of free cash flow. Any further dividend is whatever is left after: (cash balance of 250-300m + growth capital) The slide included this line as part of their plan for H2 2018 and beyond: "Deferral of non-critical sustaining capex items" All this is telling me that the BOD are doing their utmost to make sure there will be a decent divi.
casual47
19/9/2018
12:48
Over a pound I would a buyer be.
charles clore
19/9/2018
12:44
It wouldn't be unusual for the Centamin BOD to have given the most conservative revised guidance which they expect to comfortably beat. Siko's post on LSE was also interesting re. August's EMRA payment being almost double that of June and July combined, indicating that projected profit was seriously up, so bodes well for profits September onwards.
casual47
19/9/2018
12:43
Said tongue in cheek UKGeorge! No, pretty sure I don't know you. :)
fangorn2
19/9/2018
12:30
It's reasonable to expect 2019 gold production to hit and exceed 580,000 oz pa, after all, this is what was forecast for this year and that forecast included (although as it turned out badly underestimated) the lower grade transitionary zone that ended up throwing the spanner in the works. So with the transitionary zone removed in q3 that should make 2019 rather excellent. Higher grades should bring down costs to maybe below $700/oz AISC so plenty of profits even at gold prices of 1100$/oz. With that in mind, you would think that with q4 data in hand the BOD should feel confident to allow for the maximum cash possible to be returned for the final 2018 dividend.
casual47
19/9/2018
12:16
I hope your right, you seem to have nailed it. there will be a divi... and the bigger the better...
astjgroom
19/9/2018
12:08
I like the prospect of the dividend and they are getting more interesting again - however my point was that after quoting a very persuasive line up to " excess of US$250-300m" one must also bear in mind the caveat that the line does not end there.... "that is not required for growth projects." - could mean anything they want it too. Still having $300m in the bank is a better position than most.
fenners66
19/9/2018
11:36
For sure there will be a final dividend and for sure it will be more than 2.5 cents. (H2 is always more profitable than H1 even in years when there is no c0ck up in H1). So even in the worst case there will be a total dividend of 5 cents. At the current shareprice of 95p that is a return of 5.26%, minimum. Still beats savings accounts and many other miners.....
casual47
19/9/2018
11:24
Fenners, my point is that they have a buffer to make up for a dip in profits due to their problems earlier this year, should they choose to. Their company policy explicitly allows for this. Quite a luxury position to be in, no? Compare this to miners without net cash of 300 million Profit share goes to 45%. Centamin pays no tax as per agreement with the government (This was a 15 year agreement, which can be extended at the end of it)
casual47
19/9/2018
11:20
"returning cash in excess of US$250-300m that is not required for growth projects." But they have growth projects .... so at any moment that statement can become a lower dividend if they decide to invest.... Is the Govt profit share about to rise some more ? In which case that free cash flow declines ?
fenners66
19/9/2018
10:35
I expect total net cash for 2018 (excluding interim dividend) to be around $380-400m. The reason why they say 250-300m is exactly to give themselves a buffer to play with. At the top end, if they are stingy, they'll keep 300m cash and then total dividend would be $80-100m or 7-8.5 cents, so a final dividend of 4.5-6 cents. If they recognise the need to maintain a stable dividend and listen to bulk of shareholders then they'll keep e.g. 250m cash and total dividend would be $130-150m or 11.25-13 cents, so a final dividend of 8.75-11.5 cents. EDIT: adjusted total net cash to more reasonable 380-400 range.
casual47
19/9/2018
10:19
There's easily an extra 50 million USD on top of free cash flow to play with.
casual47
19/9/2018
10:15
Astjgroom - you are wrong, luckily. It's company policy to only keep $250-300m cash. They have paid 100% of free cash flow before. See for example: "In July, we declared an interim dividend of 2.5 US cents per share, a 25% increase on the 2016 interim payment. Following another year of strong operational and financial performance, including paying out US$112m in profit share, the board of directors are delighted to propose a final dividend for 2017 of 10 US cents per share, for approval at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting on 26 March 2018. This represents a proposed total dividend of 12.5 US cents per share, full year pay-out of US$144 million, which is equivalent to approximately 100% of our free cash flow in 2017. This level of payment is consistent with the Company’s policy of returning cash in excess of US$250-300m that is not required for growth projects."
casual47
19/9/2018
10:09
Casual they always talked about 30% of free cash flow for divis, not topping up, imho, hope I'm wrong
astjgroom
19/9/2018
09:17
Fangorn, do you know me :) I won't be 70 by 2050 if I make it that far..... I'll move into the slow lane Casual I hope you are right ref the dividend. Although I think the market expects it to be cut.
ukgeorge
18/9/2018
20:56
juju4418 Sep '18 - 15:28 - 27838 of 27840 0 0 0 Anyone for 2050 ? Pretty sure you'll be dead by then! As will UKGeorge! All that living in the fast lane....:)
fangorn2
18/9/2018
19:45
In my opinion: Total 2018 dividend will be around 12.5 cents (inclusive of 2.5 interim). Reason: even with the lower gold price and lowered guidance, the BOD's often and clearly stated intent of only holding maximum between $250-300m cash and returning as much cash to shareholders as possible means that they can easily make up for any profit reduction by topping it up with e.g. $50m from cash reserve, which would still leave at least $250m in the bank. Even at lower gold price in 2019, CEY should be able to maintain that dividend or even improve based on anticipated higher grades (=lower costs) and expected higher output for 2019 (more in line with their original guidance for 2018, so around 580,000 oz). Taking the above into account, the shareprice @0.95 is a steal! (12.5c is about 9.5p, so 10% return at 95p)
casual47
18/9/2018
15:44
don't be silly we will all be using bitcoin by then
ukgeorge
18/9/2018
15:28
Anyone for 2050 ?
juju44
18/9/2018
12:34
maybe 2019 or 2020
ukgeorge
18/9/2018
12:32
when gold come roaring back cey will too, after fomc maybe
edjge2
18/9/2018
05:01
Roland Head | Monday, 17th September, 2018 How many of today’s dividend stocks will still offer an attractive dividend in 15 years’ time? One company which I think could have a fighting chance of maintaining its dividend over this period is Egypt-based gold producer Centamin (LSE: CEY). The firm’s Sukari gold mine reached full production in 2014. Last year, the company reported gold reserves of 8m ounces at Sukari. At the current production rate of about 500,000 ounces each year, that could support 20 years’ production. Even taking a more cautious view, 15 years seems a safe estimate to me. I think it’s fair to view this company as a production business which will continue to return a substantial share of its profits to shareholders. Out of favour – the right time to buy? Gold is out of favour at the moment. The price of the yellow metal has fallen by 11% from $1,350/oz to $1,195/oz so far this year. Gold miners’ share prices have dipped too. Centamin’s share price has fallen further than most. The stock is down by nearly 40% so far this year, mainly because management cut its guidance for 2018 production in May. I share my colleague Graham Chester’s view that this is a short-term blip. I’m more interested to note that the shares now trade on a trailing price/free cash flow ratio of about six. That’s very cheap, in my view, especially when it’s accompanied by a net cash balance of $282m. This cash pile covers roughly 20% of the group’s market cap, so it provides good support for the dividend. Although the company is still involved in two ongoing court cases in Egypt, my view is that these are now unlikely to cause major problems. Indeed, I think the shares are priced to buy, on a forecast P/E of 13.3 and with a prospective yield of 5.1%.From Motley Fool I make the current yield around 10% at the current 95p share price ?
garycook
17/9/2018
15:42
wants to blow!
rovi70
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