Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[sotolo] 18/10/2024 15:31

1gw I would appreciate you telling us when you begin to sell and why. I too am hanging on. I agree with you and chatgtp about Anglo, which I notice has just broken up through $30 which I consider significant (and makes the offer now £1.70)

[sotolo] 18/10/2024 11:52

tnt I intend to sell half soon and keep half for exposure to Anglo as agree they have done a good deal and should benefit from owning Cey
Anglo bid currently worth £1.68

[tnt99] 18/10/2024 10:36

The new company will be producing 3 miilion ounces if the deal is done Does have some 1.2 billion debt though but as long as gold price stays up and centamin cash should lower it a bit could be best to hold some of their shares after the deal is done what do you think?

[zangdook] 18/10/2024 09:57

Turkey and Kosovo and Zimbabwe. No dividend.
Not really a CEY replacement imho. Full disclosure - I have both and am unhappy with management at both.

[dogwalker] 18/10/2024 08:44

That's Turkey , isn't it? Good luck.

[tnt99] 18/10/2024 07:58

I'm in AAU also hoping for big move up at some point with gold price where it is must be a steal at the current gold price potentially a ten bagger

[1gw] 17/10/2024 20:52

Chart time.

Firstly a 5-day chart showing Centamin (in black) and Anglogold (in blue) moving decisively away from GDX (in green) today, but importantly moving in absolute lockstep, meaning in the market's mind (or at least the mind of those hedge funds playing the merger arbitrage) this takeover is going to happen on the current terms. Of course it may not happen - there could be a deep-pocketed admirer lining up a bid and just holding back until it has reviewed today's results, but the market is not pricing this (IMO). And retail shareholders could still throw a spanner in the works with the "majority in number" vote.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Secondly a chart going back to just before the offer was announced showing that Anglogold's price suffered materially in relation to GDX on the announcement, suffered some more towards the end of September (Ghana galamsey or whatever) and that even with today's strong rise Anglogold remains at a meaningful discount to GDX compared to pre-announcement. If you listened to the Anglogold webcast on the merger announcement at least one of the analyst questions (as I remember it) suggested that the takeover was not an obvious fit with Anglogold's announced strategy, in addition to any concerns about the price being paid. It seems plausible that today's strong CEY results may at least have mitigated fears that Anglogold was overpaying, leading to a repositioning vs GDX.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[renniks2016] 17/10/2024 17:20

Try Ariana AAU you get a bit of both there and hugely under valued at present, imho any dual listing on ASX holding share price back, but raise is not required, so dilution negligible imho.

[harry_david] 17/10/2024 16:21

If as now seems more likely I have been thinking where to reinvest as AngloGold will be a non starter.I am definitely staying with gold given the record price. Maybe this time go for an explorer as they have been left behind. I have a few Stllr Gold with two very large prospects in Canada, a safe location. Another is Metalla a royalty play but other suggestions are welcome.

[stevedaytrader] 17/10/2024 16:13

not weird as it takes a lot of effort to come up with an offer- plus would have to say higher to warrant risk to the board. due diligence isn’t a 5min task

[elbrus55] 17/10/2024 15:53

The concept of the 'market sees' doesn't always work in a bid situation.Anybody who has a serious interest in the outcome is not allowed to trade shares or leak information to other people. So the market price does not necessarily reflect the money-weighted market view of the value.

[elbrus55] 17/10/2024 15:21

It is weird that people simultaneously argue that the current offer undervalues the company., and at the same time place almost zero probability on a higher counteroffer. The offer is a fair price if nobody offers more. As i said before a counteroffer is still possible. Not likely, but possible. If you were thinking about making a counteroffer would you do it close to the deadline or well in advance?If there

[1gw] 17/10/2024 14:40

And once again, it's not going "over the bid." The current bid is 167.2p (with AU at $29.31 and xrate at $1.2991). Cey at 165.85p mid-point is at 99.2% of the bid by my calculation which (even allowing for some lags in arbitrage) implies in my opinion that the market sees deal completion on current terms as almost certain.

[1gw] 17/10/2024 14:31

If I look at moves since 9th September (i.e. the day before the offer was announced) I get:

+38% Centamin (119.5p to 165p)
+13% GDX - Gold Miners' ETF ($36.76 to $41.60)
+1% Anglogold ($28.80 to $29.20)

So even after today's sharp move up, Anglogold is still underperforming the GDX from immediately before the offer.

If CEY really is the steal some on here are saying, then we might expect Anglogold to outperform the GDX once the market realises that, and it's possible that today's CEY results have contributed to that realisation.

[tnt99] 17/10/2024 14:28

Well it happened to me twice recently if it goes over the bid is likely the takeover fails or a new bidder comes in

[1gw] 17/10/2024 14:15

If a rival bid was coming in (and the market knew or strongly suspected it) you would see the CEY and AU (Anglogold) prices diverge sharply.

[tnt99] 17/10/2024 14:09

2.00 incoming heard it here first

[tnt99] 17/10/2024 14:07

Takeover by barrick me thinks

[1gw] 17/10/2024 14:02

Anglogold and Centamin are moving in line, so arbitrage is still in play.

The question is why both are moving up so much more than GDX.

That could be a reassessment by the market of the deal for Anglogold, given Centamin's strong results today, causing Anglogold to unwind some of the hit it took relative to GDX when the deal was announced.

[harry_david] 17/10/2024 13:58

This price and volume move is too abrupt to be arbitrage. Something is about to break.

[beeezzz] 17/10/2024 13:36

Why are the board working for Anglo, they should be getting the best price for their shareholders, I cannot understand there rationale...something doesn't smell right here..

[legg96] 17/10/2024 13:26

I have just instructed my proxy to vote my 1,114,793 shares against the proposed takeover by Anglo and my associates will vote a further 196,800 shares against the transaction. This morning`s results demonstrate that Anglo`s offer materially undervalues the the true value of the company.

[stevedaytrader] 17/10/2024 13:07

It's not another bidder.
Of course CEY rose on these results, as they are, part of Anglo now so Anglo will rise- these 2 are now linked.
Anglo got a great deal without having to pay any premium if you look at the rises of other PMs since the deal was announced- eg Hochs have increased even more than CEY without any takeover- based of the economic indicators and gold price.
So you could argue that CEY would have risen to it's current share price or maybe even higher without any bid announced. This is why so many retail investors are upset that the price paid is too low.