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18/11/2020
10:18 | creditcrunchies: I have quite a lot of high dividend yielding stocks that don't move that much but pay out regularly this gets re-invested back into the portfolio, also several recovery stocks, but to maintain capital gains I trade in and out of mining stocks. I also check over bought / over sold levels of the major indices to adjust percentage of equity and cash.
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17/11/2020
10:52 | trader536: The dividend is variable and will fall next year as profits will likely be down by 50%
“Dividend Policy
Specifically, the Board will aim to approve an annual dividend within the range of 15-30% of the Company's net cash flow after sustaining capital costs and following the payment of Profit Share due to the Government of Egypt”
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17/11/2020
10:22 | wallywoo: A little patience is needed here. CEY has a long history share price wise of being over sold and over bought. Makes it a good trading share (especially with no stamp duty).
However, they are very generous with dividends, have plenty of cash, and massive reserves of gold. Which I believe will continue to hold great and increasing value over the next few years.
So chill, watch it happen, enjoy the divi's. CEY's share price will recover over the next few months.
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13/11/2020
08:28 | clarky111: Plat hunter. Your a terrible liar. You know and anyone who's been following JLP no that your comments are pure lies. JLP are Cey 15 years ago. I bought into cry firstly at 6p and added as my confidence grew to when I sold at 190p. Many years back.i bought JLP at 2.4p and likewise I've been adding as the confidence grows. I've been in JLP for over 5 years and at this stage I believe JLP will bring higher returns than CEY ever did. I was extremely lucky to have made so much on CEY and I still make money from mostly trading cry but lo g term JLP is the most exciting company I have ever been in
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11/11/2020
11:50 | mr tibbles: FROM 05th Nov 2020
Production setback
Centamin’s business and shares were performing strongly earlier this year. On the back of a higher gold price and production, it reported a 57% increase in first-half revenue and a 280% rise in earnings. Its shares reached a high of 232p in August.
However, last month it announced it was deferring production in one zone of its giant Sukari mine in Egypt. This was due to movement in a localised area of waste material. Subsequently, it revised its 2020 production guidance down to 445,000–455,000 from 510,000–525,000 ounces. Furthermore, it gave 2021 guidance of 400,000–430,000 ounces.
At a current 126p, this FTSE 250 miner’s shares are 46% below their August high. I think the fall is way overdone. At less than 12 times forecast 2021 earnings, and a prospective dividend yield of 6%, I reckon Centamin is another stock capable of delivering high returns for buyers today.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/3-ftse-250-recovery-stocks-151933430.html
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11/11/2020
11:33 | mr tibbles: I thought some of you may find answers to some of your questions in this Peel Hunt note-
Peel Hunt Note 02nd Nov 2020-11-03 ( key points only no charts)
Upgrade to Buy
By mid-2021 we expect to be facing a much better near-term
outlook for H2 21 and H1 22, while the LOM review in
December should outline medium-term mine plans as well as any
cost-saving potential. With the CEY stock price off 37% since
2 October and a more visible path to production recovery at
Sukari, we have upgraded the stock to Buy (from Add)
Downgrading 2021 EBITDA by 29%, 2022 by 27%
We have cut our 2021 production forecast by 19% to 415k oz (from 513k oz) on
the back of renewed 2021 production guidance of 400-430k oz, which results in
a 29% decrease in 2021E EBITDA. We have also cut our 2022 production
forecast by 11% to 482k oz (from 543k oz), which results in an EBITDA
decrease of 27%. In 2021 we forecast average AISC at US$1173/oz, while in
2022 we forecast AISC at US$950/oz.
We see a normalised run rate by Q4 2021, but more of a cost focus
We believe a more sustainable level of production at Sukari could be around
500k oz, but at a lower cost level. While we have cut our production forecasts to
reflect a lower anticipated production rate going forward, we have not priced in
any additional cost benefits. We believe the heaviest bit of the additional
stripping in the open pit will take place in H1 2021, and we have forecast close to
a normalised production rate (140k oz) by Q4 2021.
Maintaining dividend forecast at USc12 in 2021
Despite the significantly lower production and profitability forecast for 2021 and
2022, we see good downside cash support at US$240-260m, and have forecast a
cash low of US$238m in Q3 2021. For this reason we have kept our final
dividend forecast of USc6 for 2020, as well as USc12 for 2021. With our belowconsensus profit forecasts in the coming two-to-three years, and no cut in the
dividend, we still have over US$300m of net cash forecast by the end of 2021.
Lower target by 22% to 170p. Upgrade to Buy rating
The substantial downgrade to our near-term earnings expectations results in a
22% cut to our target price from 218p to 170p. With 35% potential upside, we
upgrade CEY from Add to Buy. We expect the worst of the quarterly profits to
be behind us within nine months, and the 12-month EBITDA outlook by mid-
2021 to support higher valuations.
Sukari recovery should take 12 months
Recent update reflects our worst-cast scenario
At around the 150p level we thought the market was pricing in 10 months of
disruption to both production and profits at Centamin. However, with the stock
now below 130p, we see our worst-case scenario of 12-month disruption turning
into a reality. All in, it could even be as long as 15 months if CEY does not return
to a normalised run rate in Q4 2021.
Full recovery at Sukari open pit to take 12-15 months
As Chart 1 below sets out, we now believe production will run at rate of under
80k oz per quarter for the next three quarters. We expect to see an H2
production recovery in 2021, with production rates in Q4 close to normal for the
full quarter, which implies a normalised run rate by the end of Q4 2021. Much of
the lower production is due to accessing the lower grade Stage 5 of the open pit
and stockpiles near term, while the underground mine plan remains unchanged
Beyond 2021, CEY may aim for closer to the 500k oz mark at Sukari
While the recovery to a normalised run rate may not happen until the end of next
year on our forecasts, our normalised rates could well be lower than what CEY
has aimed for in recent years. Historically CEY was looking to produce +550k oz
at Sukari each year, while more recently that has been focused closer to the 500-
550k oz level.
However, going forward, we believe it’s possible we will see Sukari run as more
of a sustainable operation with a longer mine life at a lower annualised rate of
closer to 500k oz. For this reason we have forecast just 482k oz of production in
2022, down 11-12% from our previous forecast of 543k oz. The LOM asset
review on 2 December is likely to give more firm detail on what that mediumterm production profile could look like.
2021 and 2022 profit forecasts lowered by 25-30%
While we make only modest single-digit percentage changes to our 2020 profit
forecasts, our 2021 and 2022 EBITDA forecasts have been revised down 27-
29%, as set out in Table 1 below. Our EPS forecasts for both years have been
lowered by 31%. Our 2020-22 EBITDA forecasts are in line to just below
current consensus.
Cash buffer still intact, dividend unchanged
At the announcement of the instability in the Sukari open pit, we stated that we
saw the downside liquidity case resulting in close to US$250m of net cash in Q3
2021. That belief remains intact.
Our new forecasts do not account for any change in dividend forecasts. With a
final 2020 dividend forecast at USc6, and the total 2021 dividend forecast at
USc12 (both unchanged) we currently forecast that our cash low points to an
average of between US$240 and US$260m in 2021, with the absolute low point
of US$238m in Q3 2021 after payment of the 2021 interim dividend.
Target price lowered by 22% to 170p, upgrade to Buy
We continue to use a weighted average valuation using near-term EV/EBITDA
and a longer term NAV based valuation. As Table 2 below sets out, this gives us a
fair value range from 150p at the low end to 194p on the high end. Therefore, we
have lowered our target price by 22% to 170p (from 218p).
However, with 35% potential upside to our revised target, we upgrade to a Buy
rating. With greater certainty over the 12-month outlook we now feel higher
conviction on the upgrade than previously. We also believe that by mid-2021 the
12-month forward outlook will be more positive than it is now, allowing for
further upside to our share price valuation. As we forecast three quarters of
excessively low production rates in a row, it is not too long before we hope these
are behind us. We would also note potential upside should CEY come up with
further cost-saving initiatives during the coming 12-month period.
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09/11/2020
13:56 | martinfrench: gold will recover, the story has weakened but still intact.
i hold very few cey overnight for these very reasons, only day trade it
this is why slp are so much better than cey, their commods are mainly demand driven as well as have the same benefit of cey of benefitting from a weak dollar.
and divi better these days
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03/11/2020
13:36 | julianallan: RE: Peel Hunt Note 02nd Nov 2020 Key pointsToday 12:53Beyond 2021, CEY may aim for closer to the 500k oz mark at Sukari. While the recovery to a normalised run rate may not happen until the end of next year on our forecasts, our normalised rates could well be lower than what CEY has aimed for in recent years. Historically CEY was looking to produce +550k oz at Sukari each year, while more recently that has been focused closer to the 500-550k oz level. However, going forward, we believe it's possible we will see Sukari run as more of a sustainable operation with a longer mine life at a lower annualised rate of closer to 500k oz. For this reason we have forecast just 482k oz of production in 2022, down 11-12% from our previous forecast of 543k oz. The LOM asset review on 2 December is likely to give more firm detail on what that medium term production profile could look like. 2021 and 2022 profit forecasts lowered by 25-30%.While we make only modest single-digit percentage changes to our 2020 profit forecasts, our 2021 and 2022 EBITDA forecasts have been revised down 27- 29%, as set out in Table 1 below. Our EPS forecasts for both years have been lowered by 31%. Our 2020-22 EBITDA forecasts are in line to just below current consensus. Cash buffer still intact, dividend unchanged.At the announcement of the instability in the Sukari open pit, we stated that we saw the downside liquidity case resulting in close to US$250m of net cash in Q3 2021. That belief remains intact.Our new forecasts do not account for any change in dividend forecasts. With a final 2020 dividend forecast at USc6, and the total 2021 dividend forecast at USc12 (both unchanged) we currently forecast that our cash low points to an average of between US$240 and US$260m in 2021, with the absolute low point of US$238m in Q3 2021 after payment of the 2021 interim dividend.Target price lowered by 22% to 170p, upgrade to Buy. We continue to use a weighted average valuation using near-term EV/EBITDA and a longer term NAV based valuation. As Table 2 below sets out, this gives us a fair value range from 150p at the low end to 194p on the high end. Therefore, we have lowered our target price by 22% to 170p (from 218p).However, with 35% potential upside to our revised target, we upgrade to a Buy rating. With greater certainty over the 12-month outlook we now feel higher conviction on the upgrade than previously. We also believe that by mid-2021 the12-month forward outlook will be more positive than it is now, allowing for further upside to our share price valuation. As we forecast three quarters of excessively low production rates in a row, it is not too long before we hope these are behind us. We would also note potential upside should CEY come up with further cost-saving initiatives during the coming 12-month period.Ends
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28/10/2020
09:12 | wallywoo: Back in here CEY in super bargain territory. Gold will have a major run up over the next few years, CEY has a great position in Egypt with a massive mining expansion to come over the next few years.
That will be noticed by the big guys and CEY will get snapped up. Dividends in the meantime will keep my investment happy.
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21/10/2020
07:59 | csjcsl2: re plat ..tailings..i got into cey back when the share price was 10p many years ago...i am now currently holding jlp a tailings producer arguably the best in the world.i sold cey at over 200p a few years back..i look at jlp as my new cey..currently jlp share price is 6.5p with the potential to go 40p plus and even more over time the sky is the limit for jlp amazing growth ahead of it
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PLUS1
