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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centamin | CEY | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 146.00 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 146.00 | 146.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 13/11/2024 09:58 by kennyp52 Larry .. wholly share for share offer I thought with retention of a dividend . I like CEY but cannot trust the board now so sold out at 150p . If Anglo drops to $20 then why would the deal go through ? Needs to be closer to $30 to represent any kind of value . Doropo just round the corner and they are trying to steal CEY with CEY’s board backing it ! In my view an unforgivable position and if it does not go through the whole board must go . |
Posted at 09/11/2024 13:18 by shayadfn Some of gold miners I have invested in have been taken over like HGM and Shanta (got cash in both cases) and invested in PAF at 16p (only a small position). CEY has been my longest and best holding (started at 35p when there were issues with the Egyptian government, it fell in the 20s) I kept adding in 2013 and ever since traded in and out. My current holding is over 2m. So, I have been incredibly lucky. It all started with my SBT holding being taken over by GVC (now Etain) getting cash and shares, plus divi. This was another lucky break, I'm agnostic about the AngloGold takeover (I was waiting for the CEY Sp to go above £2 to reduce my holding). Have dipped my toes in the US stock FCX, Newmont, and Barrick over the last two years (this was only because I got my divi from CEY in USD). Good luck to all on the board- haven't posted much over the last few years due to derampers. |
Posted at 17/10/2024 04:39 by sotolo Beez I don’t think the recent Anglo rise back to a price that makes the bid worth 1.60, and hence Cey share price rising as usual a couple of pence below it, has much to do with Cey results that are anyway pretty much already known. Anglo likely to have a small rie or fall today depending on gold price. Nor do I think Cey likely to soar above the Anglo offer price on these results. The hedge funds that now own many of our shares will play the arbitrage methinks keeping Cey tracking just below Anglo bid unless looks like any chance of it failing or being increased but the current pricing suggests neither is likely even if many here hope so, though not entirely impossible in which case the arbitrage difference will change fast imho |
Posted at 14/10/2024 20:25 by 1gw I agree they're most likely merger arbitrage (except possibly for D.E. Shaw although it may just have moved very quickly to build its position on the day the deal was announced).If the deal collapses then they stand to lose on both sides of the deal - they lose on the AU short if the price rebounds and they lose on the CEY long as the price falls back. If the deal succeeds as currently priced, they make a relatively small amount (relative to the size of each position) as the CEY discount to the offer price has been pretty small for most of the offer period. Having said that, with a pairs trade the only real cost is the financing of the short position so even 1% or 2% on the arbitrage is likely to be worthwhile. Where they really make big money is if AU is forced to raise its bid for CEY as they win on both sides of the trade - CEY price will increase towards the revised bid while AU price is likely to take a corresponding hit reflecting the increased cost of the offer. Although there appear to be 3 or 4 arbitrage positions here, and there may be more under the discloseable threshold, it still feels to me like a relatively small arbitrage position for this stage in the process. Is that a view that the risk of the deal collapsing is too high relative to the arbitrage that is on offer with the CEY discount to the bid price? |
Posted at 14/10/2024 16:51 by 1gw From the 8.3's we seem now to have at least 3 hedge funds playing the merger arbitrage, or betting that things will change in a way that benefits CEY over AU:Alpine Associates (12.9m shares long CEY, 0.9m shares short AU) Syguant Capital (11.8m shares long CEY, 0.8m shares short AU) Kryger Capital (14.7m shares long CEY, 1.0m shares short AU) The Kryger position is as of 10th Oct as I haven't seen an AU declaration from them for 11th, but on 11th they increased their CEY position to 16.2m shares. Kryger has been building its long CEY position steadily since going through the 1% declaration threshold on 4th October. Syquant appears to have gone through the threshold on Friday. The Alpine position is as of 2nd October. In addition, D.E. Shaw appears to have a similar position to Kryger (15m shares long CEY, 1.1m shares short AU) but to have already held it as of 10th September - so presumably a view on the relative outlooks for the companies pre-announcement. Alpine is a self-avowed merger arbitrage player: "Alpine’s primary strategy is merger arbitrage, focusing on transactions with definitive merger contracts." |
Posted at 13/10/2024 08:44 by 1gw Same chart brought up to date, showing how a period of underperformance against GDX was switched by the bid to material outperformance:free stock charts from uk.advfn.com Or if you just want to see what happened after the price had adjusted for the bid, this one shows how CEY has subsequently underperformed against GDX (and gold), whether as a result of concern that AU was paying too much (and CEY price moving in line with AU price) and/or the AU Ghana galamsey story and/or something else: free stock charts from uk.advfn.com Personally, I prefer the chart in post 59889 as an indicator of what the bid has done for the CEY price relative to GDX (and therefore what might happen to the CEY price if the bid were to fail without a counter-offer being made) as it takes the CEY-GDX correlation as read and shows the divergence since just before the bid. Health warning on advfn charts that the first day's price sometimes looks like it's a day out - in the case of the 2nd chart it appears it starts from the 11th Sept close of 149.6 instead of the 10th Sept close of 146.9, but I don't think that changes the picture materially. |
Posted at 12/10/2024 16:03 by 1gw OK, I'll take the other side of those points.The offer has never been 163p, it is a mainly paper offer. 163p is a calculation based on the last available price of AU prior to the offer. If the AU price and the exchange rate get back to those levels then the offer price will be 163p. A more relevant marker imo is GDX. On that basis the offer currently gives a roughly 17% premium against an alternative where CEY loses its post-offer premium to GDX. Those institutions looking to cash out are more likely imo to base their decision on that premium to GDX, those institutions looking to stay in will take a view on how the AU price is likely to move going forward as they integrate CEY and achieve cost synergies. free stock charts from uk.advfn.com I agree that institutions often don't vote, even in M&A situations. But the point I made in an earlier post was that CEY managed to get a relatively high turnout (around 70% of shares) of the vote for the last AGM (arguably of far less moment than the AU deal) - so I infer from that that they have a reasonably polished institutional IR operation and are likely to be able to persuade a number of long-standing institutional holders to vote for the deal. I'm not sure how you reconcile "posting on a little read bulletin board" with claiming you're in a group of Centamin shareholders and know that 100's of them are on the register in their own right and have voted no. I haven't followed Centamin particularly closely (seeing it as portfolio diversification that's a bit more interesting than buying GDX or the commodity) and don't have a view on their ability to execute well on their strategy for Sukari or Doropo and so outperform GDX going forward. But I can see how AU's price has reacted after its bid for CEY and can also see that no-one else has so far come forward with a counter-offer - so that makes me think the bid is probably reasonably generously priced. On the other hand I can see that the gold price has had an incredible run and that's really what makes me happy to take the AU bid premium and sell out if no counter-offer does emerge in the near future. |
Posted at 07/10/2024 18:45 by 1gw CEY still looks to me to be 14% or so up against GDX (gold miners ETF) since just before the AU deal was announced. And AU down a bit more than that against GDX.If the deal is voted down on 28th by CEY shareholders, without a counter-bid appearing, presumably CEY would lose most of that current premium to GDX - maybe a bit less if traders decided AU might sweeten their bid, maybe a bit more if traders assigned an additional Middle East risk factor to CEY given regional developments since the bid. AU's own underperformance against GDX since announcing the bid, however much management expected a bit of a markdown, might make it difficult for them to justify much of a sweetener (in fact their major shareholders might see it as a get out of jail card and now that they know about the bid they are unlikely to be shy in lobbying AU about next steps in the event of a "no" vote). So that's the main problem I see for the CEY institutional holders in voting no - how do they justify to themselves voting down a deal which has been recommended by CEY management and gives them a clear premium at the moment, given the uncertainty over whether AU would in fact sweeten the bid? free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
Posted at 30/9/2024 16:53 by 1gw A 5-day chart seems to show very slight separation of CEY from AU today. It has actually moved in CEY's favour though which means the discount from the offer has narrowed and is now only around 1% (i.e. CEY trading at around 99% of the offer price).So the market views completion of the offer as more likely and/or the market thinks a higher offer is slightly more likely now. What it doesn't indicate imo is that the market thinks the AU offer will collapse without a counter-offer arriving because if that were the case I would expect the CEY price to fall relative to AU. free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
Posted at 10/9/2024 11:58 by arlington chetwynd talbott Agreed. They had a little fun with Shanta, maybe they will be up for this one too. At this price I will likely be investing my CEY dividend in CEY. |
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