Avation Share Discussion Threads

[feynzz2] 30/11/2024 17:59

I don't think Rangeley could have bought more as they were already over 25%, they could have sold some though. Anyway we should find out in the next couple of days who the buyer is. If its Azorra or any entity linked to them then it would spark TO rumours again. Anyone buying 14% of share capital at 150-155.5p must have a strategic objective. No one would buy this for the yield right and growth in NAV would be limited to 5% p.a. for at least the next couple of years until they can refinance the bonds. I do think its only a waiting game with AVAP. I think it gets acquired in the short term (i.e. less than a year).

[bdbd11] 30/11/2024 17:46

My guess is that Rangeley bought the rest of the Oceanwood stake. They sold out at 72p if i remember rightly, leaving them with 2.4%. so probably happy to let the rest go at double the price. If that's the case, and Rangeley also bought the warrants, they must be close to a 30% stake. IMO this would also be very good news as they will want an exit, and would only pay that price if they still see substantial upside. I may of course be completely wrong.

[dartboard1] 30/11/2024 16:50

Maybe Jeremy Raper selling to Azorra ...

[feynzz2] 30/11/2024 16:06

It wasn't just the 3.69m warrants that were sold at 150p, another 6.5m shares exchanged hands in 2 block trades at 150p and 155.5p on 28th November. The total sum amounts to 14% of the company's share capital. It appears to be a single buyer although I am not sure who has sold the remaining c6.5m shares. I believe there has to be a TR1 on Monday. In addition, another 12m shares were traded between 16 October to 27 November without any notification of holdings which is odd for a company with a relatively small free float. Surely something is going on in the background.

[harrogate] 30/11/2024 14:21

Interesting to see who bought them. I would think it means there are no takeover talks taking place.

[melmotte1] 30/11/2024 14:13

Not sure we can infer anything from the sale of shares by management following the exercise of warrants. They cannot trade on insider knowledge, so the sale of shares was probably planned ahead.

[bdbd11] 28/11/2024 12:52

3.5M changed hands at £1.50. It'll be interesting to see the disclosure. On another note, with the recent rns, the company is not acting in a manner that would indicate they are considering an offer, or perhaps any offer has been dismissed as too low and are carrying on as normal. Nice to see the return to the dividend list, but they could have made it a penny!

[albert arthur] 08/11/2024 07:59

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AVAP/new-lease-agreement-signed/16754701?showDisclaimer=true

[harrogate] 05/11/2024 10:28

All slightly odd that Sky news story. They have been the go to for placing such stories further quite some time and they are almost always on the money.

[albert arthur] 01/11/2024 16:15

Looking like a strong finish to the week!

[bdbd11] 31/10/2024 13:01

Volume incredibly low given the bid speculation. Maybe the market is waiting for confirmation from avap.

[argylerich] 31/10/2024 07:39

Lol typical AVAP, we get an RNS, about an auditor 🤣.
No further update from Kleinman either.

[bdbd11] 30/10/2024 22:32

A rare opportunity for me to say "I told you so" still trading at a 35% discount. Several buyers sniffing. If it does get taken over it'll be a lot closer to the nav. Expect an rns.Still predicting over £2 soonish. Topped up this afternoon to add to what already was my largest holding. Good luck all.

[albert arthur] 30/10/2024 20:46

One thing I'd expect that could have been, is we were already on a nice rise, and the rsi was at 69 (very high usually reflects overbought) so some traders might have sold on the spike which caused some panic selling an maybe put some people of buying on the speculation. The rsi is now 65. I expect this will head back towards that 191 we hit today and go higher. For a takeover, I'd expect the bid to be much higher than the current price.

[harrogate] 30/10/2024 18:57

Pretty unusual for such a press story to result in a share price going down on the day. Especially on such high volumes

[albert arthur] 30/10/2024 15:54

Looks like that bit of news brought some news traders which caused a price wobble. Sure things will settle, would be nice to see an RNS regarding that takeover news.

[albert arthur] 30/10/2024 11:02

Nice, so with NAV being higher, would expect this to go north...

[simon gordon] 30/10/2024 10:59

Mark Kleinman - 30/10/24

Revealed: Azorra Aviation Holdings, a company backed by the $205bn US asset management giant Oaktree Capital, is plotting a swoop on Singapore-based aircraft leasing rival Avation, in what would be the latest example of a bid for a London-listed company.

[harrogate] 30/10/2024 10:57

https://news.sky.com/story/oaktree-backed-predator-eyes-swoop-for-london-listed-avation-13244580

[albert arthur] 30/10/2024 10:53

It's literally bang on the AI prediction today I posted in the video. Will post an update later. Let's get this budget out the way.

[argylerich] 30/10/2024 10:51

That's a big 'pop'!

[albert arthur] 25/10/2024 13:39

Seems to have followed the pattern for the last three days so far...

[wsm812] 25/10/2024 13:13

No financially damaging shocks in the annual report, quite the opposite. This business is set to continue to soar. I cannot add more at the moment, but I may regret that decision by the end of November if Albert Arthur's AI machine proves to be correct.

[wsm812] 24/10/2024 10:43

Thanks Albert, you are living by the sword with your predictions - I like that! I wish you all the success with your screener, and especially with AVAP predictions!

Let's chat again in November ;)