Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[2sporrans] 05/10/2020 12:09

Lefrene

For me, the main risk to AAZ is a substantial long term risk discount to the share price

I don't see any permanent solution to the NK question as feasible any time soon, let alone being enacted.
For as long as the direct conflict participants remain Armenia and Ajerbaijan, any serious impact upon AAZ looks extemely unlikely to me.

Basically, Ajerbaijan has a considerably stronger military force and is employing it to claw back territory.
If the Azerzis continue to 'succeed' with this, I very much doubt the Armenians will
carry out anything that will impact AAZ.
If the Azerzis do actually come a cropper and fail to get anywhere for all the cost to them, then that could, just maybe, end up with the Government adopting a less cooperative/benign way forward with AAZ.

Agreed that if the escalation ends up somehow as one of e.g. proxy war between powerful neighbours, then the risk discount will mushroom.
ATT, Erdogan does concern me.
Isn't his great concern the Kurdish question though?
Another intractable conflict; one within as well as beyond Turkey's borders.
Perhaps a close second is the migrant influx from/via Syria.
The Greek/Cypriot dilemmas are also serious.
Does he really want to exacerbate relations with all of the EU, Russia and Iran?
Even the Chinese must be taking a dim view of threats to their growing interests in this region, not least the trade routes with Europe they have invested heavily in.
The Americans? Well a lot can change there, and soon.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 12:03

Celeritas, quite, which is why I don't see what Armenia has to gain from war, especially knowing that Turkey is on an expansionist drive to restore their previous Ottoman sphere of influence.

It doesn't really matter who started it.

The facts are that this is not just about the territorial - there are hundreds of thousands of people living in N-K and there is a not unreasonable fear that should Azerbaijan take control over them that serious harm will befall them.

[celeritas] 05/10/2020 11:57

No because the Azeri's are not holding land they claim and is internationally recognised as Armenian land.
I don't agree with the protests, I don't agree with many protests but people have a right to peacefully protest unlike a few of late that have involved looting and burning family businesses and destroying neighborhoods.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 11:52

Armenians have not been demanding war.

The Armenian parliament is unanimously behind the PM, which is a feat as the opposition are no friends of him.

[zangdook] 05/10/2020 11:51

Little bit of a worry that the Turks have apparently been flying hundreds of their Syrian proxy "rebels" into Azerbaijan. That presumably also plays a part in Iran's concerns.

[celeritas] 05/10/2020 11:49

I saw that Casual, a protest as I said.
Do you categorically know Baku started this?
I get the feeling the Armenians aren't happy either.
I follow Nagorno news quite regular and am used to fire from both sides, this is different by a long way.

[celeritas] 05/10/2020 11:38

Because one is protesting in the capital about Nagorno, the other is physically chaining your soldiers so they can't run away. People have a right to protest peacefully, no-one has a right to chain soldiers. Also I did say I didn't know who was to blame, why are you only presenting one side. I don't support either side, I just want this war ended.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 11:35

If you seen plenty from both sides why only mention one?

[celeritas] 05/10/2020 11:34

No I've seen plenty from both sides. You don't find chaining Armenian soldiers to outposts shocking? I just want it sorted peacefully with no one suffering but in war it's not likely to happen.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 11:29

"Who is to blame for starting it, who knows, probably a bit of both. I do remember the Armenian prime minister saying he can't wait for his papers so he can go to the front line, I've seen non of that but I have seen Armenian soldiers chained to outposts, shocking."

You must have missed the videos of hundreds of thousands Azeris demanding jihad against Armenia few months ago.

[celeritas] 05/10/2020 11:26

You have to do what you feel is right, each to their own. Do you think this will carry on for months or be over soon. Will it escalate or quickly calm down.
My thinking is Baku is sick and tired trying to sort Nagorno out with very little progress, I really don't think it's about to stop now as otherwise all will be in vain with Baku no further forward.
Who is to blame for starting it, who knows, probably a bit of both. I do remember the Armenian prime minister saying he can't wait for his papers so he can go to the front line, I've seen non of that but I have seen Armenian soldiers chained to outposts, shocking.
Here you have to think will it affect the mine. I don't think it will but if it escalates I can see it slowing or stopping production simply to keep staff safe.

Do you buy or sell or hold, I think we all have to make that choice ourselves based on present information, no one is right or wrong. Well apart from allseeing who is talking his own book.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 11:24

I can't see anybody thinking of invading Azerbaijan.

Turkey would probably fancy themselves annexing Armenia proper but it would be a huge move and I really cannot see Russia allowing it.

So the integrity of both countries seems secure to me.

I cannot see N-K being ceded by Armenia as the idea of leaving their compatriots open to a possible holocaust will be unthinkable to them.

The most obvious outcome is a return to status quo, by and large. Maybe with some insignificant face-saving gestures from one or both sides.

The only thing that's a question mark for me is how long the standoff will last. The more likely seems to be short, weeks rather than months. But there is potential for this to be years.

[thomas11] 05/10/2020 11:23

Look how far this dropped in March due to Covid, I’ll be topping up big time at that point,I reckon that’s where we are heading short term.

[lefrene] 05/10/2020 11:11

NK104, plainly a situation like this could very suddenly "affect the process of getting metals out of the ground", or not affect it at all. Hence right now it's all about sentiment, ie, do you think this will be a short spat, or will it turn into a regional war as third party states wade in. I'm hoping that both the Azeri's and the Armenians realise that if they draw in the major powers, then both of them have lost.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 11:00

Investors concerned about fundamentals rather than sentiment? Who are these people?

[nk104] 05/10/2020 10:58

Geopolitics is all very well, but as investors the question is how and whether this affects the process of getting metals out of the ground and selling them.

[inaminute] 05/10/2020 10:54

Tell the market

[casual47] 05/10/2020 10:46

Influence isn't just about the military.

US has been giving Azerbaijan 100s million USD in exchange for enforcing sanctions on Iran.

While on just about every level all the way up to Congress the US is overwhelmingly pro-Armenia, thanks to its hugely influential diaspora, the Trump executive has been closer to Azerbaijan lately exactly for this reason - getting back at Iran.

Perhaps if the money stops the fighting will stop also.

[lefrene] 05/10/2020 10:42

Both sides must realise that if they do not desist, they will likely soon be 'owned' by one of the bigger players. With Turkey and Iran taking different sides, it could escalate quickly, and the original protagonists risk losing control of the fight.

[scepticalinvestor] 05/10/2020 10:40

Ouch falling off a cliff

[mattjos] 05/10/2020 10:36

i see the Fat controller is getting a new super-duper missile ready …. same pattern as previous, in that this sort of thing usually timed to coincide with USA election cycle.

Trump has been a lone president in that he has not gone to war but, has actually been gradually pulling back USA troop commitments from all over the world.

We might have to get used to the fact that the USA is slowly stepping back from its role as the world's policeman & this will probably embolden some other nations.

[katsy] 05/10/2020 10:35

Inaminute, why have the mines relocated to the front line.

[inaminute] 05/10/2020 10:29

That RNS predates the weekend's activity. I reduced my holding by 50% on the bell at 1.28 which I intend to buy back when the situation is clearer. If I pay more so be it but I was not hiding behind the sofa just being rational at how the market might react.

[amunro] 05/10/2020 10:27

Seems Azerbaijan has the upper hand militarily and economically. Whats all the fuss about? Armenia is a very small impoverished country.