Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 06/10/2020 09:06

Ever watch the league of gentlemen? It's a local mine for local people

[theprovosts] 06/10/2020 09:02

Can anyone enlighten me as to the workforce of the mine? Im assuming its mainly Azerzis? Sorry im no too familiar with this geographically. Thanks

[2sporrans] 06/10/2020 08:54

Looks like the Azerzis are continuing to advance, their main drive being to the south
of the NK zone.
Reclaimed a small town and a dozen or so villages, by their accounts.
This is not NK province territory as such, it is part of the swathe of surrounding land
the Armenians conquered in the 90s, that had been essentially occupied by Azerzis rather than Armenians.

Question is, how far will the Azerzis push this and possibly another advance before they consider they are ready for ceasefire and negotiations?
I don't pretend to know the answer.
Perhaps the arrival of winter will impose a limit on the advance[s], if other factors don't beforehand? Hopefully well before.

Meanwhile the conflict may broaden further, civilians taking the brunt of it as shells and rockets land near or upon key infrastructure etc.

That's how it's looking to me, from reading several diverse sources.

fwliw Remain firmly of view that AAZ assets and personnel are highly unlikely to be directly impacted.
However, the fear-uncertainty-risk discounting may cause selling to exceed buying for days, weeks even.
Bargain fundamentals from buyers perspective.

[silverspoon2009] 06/10/2020 08:53

Seriously oversold and due a strong bounce, the RSI is the lowest since 2015 to put it into perspective.

[pogue] 06/10/2020 08:50

Regards AAZ I have had look where this war is going and I am not optimistic of it being over by Xmas I dont see a massive missmatch, Turkey's input will be the deciding factor I feel however how much they will put in the field I dont know currently it does not appear to be much. Happy to hear from more military minded individuals though on what I post below.

A browse of Wikipedia and forces.net gives an idea of at the relative strengths of the forces in the field in NK.

Karabakh
The Karabakh army has around 20,000 active soldiers who are well trained and well equipped with the latest in military software and hardware. Their heavy military hardware includes: 316 tanks, 324 armored vehicles, 322 artillery pieces of calibers over 122 mm, 44 multiple rocket launchers, and a new anti-aircraft defense system. In addition, the NKR Defence Force has a an air-force of 2 Su-25s, 5 Mi-24s and 5 other helicopters. They did run out of ammo last time there was a spat but this has been remedied I believe.

Armenia
The Armenian army has a policy of developing its armed forces into a professional, well trained, and mobile military. In 2000, the Centre for International Studies and Research reported that the Armenian Army had the strongest combat capability of the three South Caucasus countries' armies (the other two being Georgia and Azerbaijan). CSTO Secretary, Nikolay Bordyuzha, came to a similar conclusion after collective military drills in 2007 when he stated that, "the Armenian Army is the most efficient one in the post-Soviet space". This was echoed more recently by Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Public Council, Russian Ministry of Defense, in a March 2011 interview. The Armenian army in 2017 was roughly 19,000 conscripts and 23,000 professionals with in 2010, 20 T-80 tanks, 137 T-72 tanks, 8 T-54/55 tanks and 80 BMP-1's, 7 BMP-1K, 55 BMP-2 and 12 BRM-1K. Wheeled APCs reported included 11 BTR-60s, 21 BTR-70s, 4 BTR-80s, 145 MT-LBs, 5 BMD-1S, and 120 BRDM-2 scout vehicles.
The Armenian Air Force consists of 15 Su-25 ground attack planes, 18 Su-30 jet fighters, 1 Mig 25, 16 Mil Mi-24 helicopter gunships, 6 L-39 trainer and attack aircraft, 16 Yak-52 trainer aircraft, 3 Il-76 cargo planes, 18 Mil Mi-8 transport helicopters, and 10 Mil Mi-2 light utility helicopters. There are an additional 18 MiG-29 fighter jets of the Russian 102nd Military Base stationed in Gyumri. It should be noted Armenian equipment is not that modern though.

Azerbajan
The Azeri army numbers 56,840 and has 220 main battle tanks, an additional 162 T-80's were acquired between 2005 and 2010,595 armored combat vehicles and 270 artillery systems. The air force has about 106 aircraft and 35 helicopters. The Azerbaijani Air Force has around 106 aircraft and 59 helicopters. The Azeri Air Force uses MiG-21, MiG-23, Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft, MiG-29 and Il-76 transport aircraft. The MiG-29 have been designated as the standard aircraft for the AzAF.
Azerbaijan's helicopter force consists of a single regiment with around 14–15 Mi-24, 12–13 Mi-8 and 7 Mi-2 and 24 Mi-35M (Hind-E) gunships.
They have increased the military budget from around $300 million in 2005 to $2.46 billion in 2009 so may have improved a lot but I dont feel this is a one sided war.

Turkey
It dwarfs the other 3 armies that are involved. There are 355,000 active military personnel, I cant find anything on actual army only combined strength. It has the 15th-highest number of active soldiers in the world though. Turkish Land Forces have 2,622 tanks, 8,777 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,278 self-propelled guns, 1,260 pieces of towed-artillery and 438 multiple-launch rocket systems. The airforce has 206 fighter aircraft, 80 transport aircraft, 276 training aircraft and 497 helicopters.

Turkey in December 2009 signed an agreement on military assistance with Azerbaijan. The agreement envisions Ankara's supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, military equipment and, if necessary, soldiers in case war with Armenia over Karabakh resumes, so this was a war waiting to happen all sides have been getting ready for this for a long time.

[tradeforce] 06/10/2020 08:43

I have been selling down around 40% of my holding here over the last 10 days as this uncertainty has been dragging on the progress of the share price. It has been hard as AAZ has been good to me, but it is still currently my largest holding.

I have been lucky enough to divest all of my sales into OMI and SOLG and I expect both to continue on to reach new recent highs, and although I stayed with AAZ for the divi capital growth can be very satisfying and profitable.

[riggerbeautz] 06/10/2020 08:26

Don’t you get talking sense on these boards fuji.

[2sporrans] 06/10/2020 08:26

Baz

JORC this week or next, going by what Bill Morgan said ~fortnight ago.
The JORC as such complete now i believe; the LOM [extension?] the wip.

Last year the Q3s released on 15th October.

[fuji99] 06/10/2020 08:17

Good morning all. I think the only outcome is the end of the conflict through negotiations as both countries cannot sustain a long war nor manage economies hit by Covid 19. Russia and Turkey in particular will do what it takes for a peace deal soon. As far as AAZ is concerned, to me, it was a rare opportunity to add. Anticipating the US elections turbulence - possibly dragging on if Trump feels he lost , I cannot see any other sector to be in than gold.

[witheco] 06/10/2020 08:13

This has been on my watchlist for a while, the movement has triggered my interest - that's why I have appeared as a 'new' poster. I'm not -ve just cautious, it's been a good share to trade in the past, and what with the potential downside with the geopolitics and on the precious metals it's a pretty reasonable position to take.

[bazboa] 06/10/2020 08:12

When is the JORC due?

[wanobi] 06/10/2020 07:43

Good morning, Good Luck, Good Health and peace to all today :-) Cheers Wan :-)

Gold at 1910
Silver at 24.30
Brent at 41.51

EVG - RNS - options/incentives for new CEO and the CFO I see this morning,, I guess that will have been pre-negotiated as part of his package/role when he took the job,,,, so, now all he has to do is get the share price up, up, up and away for all us eager holders :-) LOL,,, fingers crossed he does it, cheers Wan :-)

AAZ - no RNS, a good thing :-), production continues as far as we know,,, now let's see what the outside players do to bring a ceasefire as soon as possible..

GLA
Cheers
Wan :-)

[gold finger 1] 06/10/2020 07:38

Well it has not stopped the buyer from mopping up another 128 thousand pounds worth.

I have noticed a lot of new posters arrived with negative comments.
I have read many times over the years that you get people that are paid to either plant the seed of doubt or pump a share.
Yes there are now risks but at this price it is a bargain, imo.
It could go lower but you have to be very lucky to buy at the bottom, or sell at the top.

[donald pond] 06/10/2020 06:47

This is a good piece too htTps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/05/why-the-stakes-in-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-are-so-much-higher-this-time-round-a71653

[donald pond] 06/10/2020 06:40

Agree Rigger. Jean Wey makes the right point but reaches the wrong conclusion. The market hates uncertainty...yup. It feels like maximum uncertainty now. Or as I have said elsewhere "buy when there is blood in the streets". There literally is. What are you waiting for?

[bozzy_s] 06/10/2020 00:48

Hoping your 2nd post comes true Podgyted! And agree totally, there's every chance the shares will drop further. I'm taking a long term view, and also banking a 7-8% dividend yield (before any special payouts).

No easy answers to the NK situation obviously. If only it were as simple as Azer bludgeoning its way into NK, overwhelming the defences and its Armenian support. Dire consequences for civilians, surely leading to a humanitarian crisis.

Here's a balanced piece by CNN on why Russia hasn't intervened (it's already involved in 4 worldwide conflicts):

[podgyted] 05/10/2020 23:42

Meant to add ....

On the other hand, a ceasefire, and this will fly ----- but that's investing for you.

[podgyted] 05/10/2020 23:39

This was supposed to be the year of AAZ..... but it's not worked out... really not worked out.

Now fundamentals are out of the window it's about whether the conflict will escalate from here or not.

Have to admit what worries me at the moment is that Russia (essentially supports both sides) has not dragged the two to the negotiating table with an interim cease-fire, and Armenia's reported desire to negotiate has been ignored. Really wonder if many years of Armenian incursions/provocations have finally provoked Azerbi to sort the situation once and for all.

Many seem to be expressing joy at buying for 100-108, but the downside is potentially a lot lower in the current circumstances - unlikely, but possible. I've taken my money elsewhere - no reason to live with the high risk political situation here when there are so many opportunities elsewhere.

But good luck to those which continue to hold.

[doc_oj] 05/10/2020 23:09

God - seeing some of the posts on here is more painful than watching the share price tank!

particularly when the spellings are that of a 6 year old.

[goodgrief] 05/10/2020 22:43

mad ... lol. Don't underestimate how much this counts to the people involved! Jeez... people get into huge fights over garden hedges!

[mattjos] 05/10/2020 22:02

Putting aside how we, in the West, may view things ... there are going to be opportunities coming along. That's business - whether you like it or not.Reza has an instinct and a talent for this sort of thing .. this is really his turf now.

[casual47] 05/10/2020 22:00

"i suspect Az will be given pretty much a free reign to take NK but no more."

So far Armenia has limited fighting to military targets which have been shelling N-K.

As soon as there is serious movement into N-K by Azerbaijan the bombs will be falling on Baku.

N-K will not be retaken without full blown war.