Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tom111] 01/5/2024 16:22

Oil looks a bit weak, still with th driving season upon us it should improve over the next few months

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/5/2024 12:36

I was trying to make the argument that in JSE the short term prospects are better and more straightforward than they are in TXP. What is not to like about that?

[tom111] 01/5/2024 12:30

True but in the meantime we are back on radio silence so does it really matter

[fardels bear] 01/5/2024 12:20

But there are boards for TXP to talk about that on. This one isn't one.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/5/2024 12:09

I would argue that the comparison I was making was relevant and fair. Echo chambers tend to end badly for those trapped in them.

[nigelpm] 01/5/2024 11:47

Can we please just chat about JSE on here. There are a million and one other discussion boards for the relevant stocks.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/5/2024 11:31

As I said, this could work for TXP in the longer term if they are ruthless, but the path to share price appreciation seems more immediate/straightforward here - do what you promised this quarter, keep Montara incident free while you are at it and 50p is a distinct possibility. But TXP could have just played a blinder - it all comes down to whether they are prepared to completely reset the business they are acquiring. They certainly need to ditch its inept BoD (who make the inept TXP BoD look good). Which is not to say that the JSE BoD are exactly paragons of competence.

[fardels bear] 01/5/2024 08:37

Hope Susannah still doing well?

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 01/5/2024 08:16

Yes - in the short term this puts TRIN holders out of their misery and it could be good for TXP in the long term if they are ruthless enough.

[tom111] 01/5/2024 08:03

Anyone notice TXP have t/0 TRIN this morning?

[yasx] 30/4/2024 11:58

MT,

Good post - broadly sums up my view of PB and Montara.

I do not see Montara being restored to a long term efficacious cash cow - it is all but a liability now and one which can at any time surprise with more problems and issues. In that sense it is history and one that holders hope will not be repeated.

[fardels bear] 30/4/2024 10:34

Well, that seemed to work.

[mount teide] 30/4/2024 10:10

To now describe Montara as a 'legacy' asset, the JSE management and Investors Chronicle journalist must have very selective memories, as all the evidence in the public domain strongly suggests they're being highly economical with the actualite.

The Montara asset was brought in late 2018 with a minimum 14 years of remaining commercial life, and included an FPSO, which was still in the early years of its new 20 year extended commercial life by the time the deal completed.

After reducing Montara's OPEX to $20/bbl and increasing production by circa 40%, Paul Blakeley confidently stated in a market presentation that Mortara would be Jadestone's 'Cash Cow' for this decade - the primary source of funding for new production development and future M&A activity of the company.

However, the complete mismanagement of the inspection, planned maintenance and repair of the FPSO over the last 2-3 years, saw Monatra's OPEX/bbl balloon from $20/bbl to over $60/bbl, with apparently only modest improvement likely over the remaining years of its commercial life.

To casually now describe Montara as a legacy asset, after Blakeley described it 2-3 years ago as a long life 'cash cow' and the best deal he had negotiated in 25 years, is either being disingenuous in the extreme, or he is suffering from the onset of dementia.

This 'legacy' asset nonsense smacks of self serving behaviour that needs to be called out - as no matter how good the business growth delivery record of a private sector CEO, you're still only as good as your last set of results.

The very carefully controlled management reporting of the remediation and maintenance issues affecting the Montara FPSO, together with the highly questionable decision to carry out the repairs and inspection work in-situ......resulted in a huge loss of cash flow from the asset, which disastrously went on to severely impact the wider performance and market valuation of the business, from which it's still to recover.

The impact of the management's poor handling and market communications of the FPSO issues on shareholders has been profound, with Jadestone's shareprice plummeting 68% during a period when Brent averaged a very healthy $83/bbl........while regional peer Valeura Energy saw its share-price surge 1,180%, after buying an asset Jadestone's team apparently dismissed as not meeting the valuation level required for more in depth assessment.

The management have clearly performed well below expectation over the last few years - as a consequence, the quality of the next few acquisitions will determine how long I remain a shareholder, as they need to get back, and fast, to what they have a long history of being very good at - securing high quality, strong cash flow generating second phase assets with reinvestment potential capable of maximising reserves recovery.

As other young upstarts, as well as high taxed mid cap independents like Enquest, are now entering Jadestone's low taxed operating arenas across the maturing O&G basins of the world, and will increasingly provide much stiffer competition for high quality divestment assets coming onto the market.

AIMHO/DYOR

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 30/4/2024 07:36

Not really - this is about the credibility of someone who posts frequently on here and cannot seem to get his story straight. But that point has now been made.

[ashkv] 30/4/2024 06:58

Nice write-up in IC on JSE



Jadestone's new Akatara facility set to boost second half

The legacy Montara field experienced further operational problems

April 29, 2024
by Mark Robinson

Akatara gas processing facility nearing completion
16 per cent reduction in realised prices
When we covered Jadestone Energy’s (JSE) full-year figures for 2022, we ventured that “adding significant debt would be a risk given the industry’s history of running into trouble once prices dip”. Since that April 2023 release, we have outlined the Asia-Pacific-focused driller’s investment case, which was predicated to a large extent on new production from Indonesia and Malaysia coming on stream. A cursory glance at the preliminary statement for 2023 suggests that the former statement probably carries more weight, but as ever with energy companies, it’s a question of timing.

The legacy Montara field, located in the Timor Sea, has continued to present operational challenges. The operator was forced to carry out tank repairs on the floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facility. Reduced production at Montara reduced total lifted volumes by 11 per cent to 3.9mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe). This issue, along with a 16 per cent reduction in year-on-year realised prices, weighed on the top line, as did a hedging loss of $10.3mn (£8.24mn) from commodity swap contracts. All this fed through to a 44 per cent reduction in cash profits (ex-exploration costs) to $90.6mn.

Management has previously lamented Jadestone’s over-reliance on Montara for operational and financial performance, a point borne out by upstream performance in the early part of 2023. So it is not difficult to appreciate why the decision was taken to broaden the group’s production profile. Perhaps the most significant related development is that construction at the Akatara gas processing facility is nearing completion. Four out of five planned production wells have undergone successful workovers, with the initial three easily exceeding requirements under the gas sales agreement. When it’s up and running, Akatara will become the group’s prime producing asset.

The imperative to reduce reliance on the group’s legacy assets comes with a hefty price tag. Midway through May 2023, the group signed a $200mn four-year credit facility with a group of banks. It is secured against Jadestone’s main producing assets and is bound to a financial covenant for a maximum total debt of 3.5 times adjusted cash profits.

Due to the impact of an active cyclone season in Australia, management has downwardly revised full-year daily production guidance to the lower end of the 20,000-22,000 boe range. Analysts at Peel Hunt, however, point out that this still amounts to a 45 per cent year-on-year increase. The broker duly reiterated its 60p target price. Overall, a mixed showing, and although investors would be well advised to monitor the leverage ratio, the second half of 2024 will provide a clearer indication of the extent to which the new assets will affect cash flows. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 32p, 23 Nov 2023

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 23:56

You're in the wrong place. This board is for grown up discussion about jadestone not personal one-upmanship or vendettas.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 29/4/2024 23:40

Read the posts - what he is saying now about his trading is not what he posted at the time.

[tom111] 29/4/2024 21:49

I cant believe this what on earth is he trying to prove Ash just filter him he is cluttering up the board

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 19:05

oh jeez - give it rest. That is likely conjecture on possible entry...I am not going to replay posts from so far back... what a specimen!!!

You are a sad sad pathetic OCD clown trawling through my old posts - when you have been outed as a malicious player.

I was flat post the only instance in 2022 when I purchased TXP post my initial buys in the teens and the low twenties - and I don't look at exact figures when I am posting to random clowns like you on a chat board.

However, as you are an OCD I will post an annotated set of my TXP trades from 2022.

Get a life... go see a shrink.... Sad sad OCD Clown...

Apologies fellow posters - I will now not respond!!! Filtered

2 Sep 2022 Sell TXP 87.00
S-375766 TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION

31 Aug 2022 Sell 88.5
S-374213 TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION

28 Apr 2022 Buy TXP 89.158
P-899053 TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 29/4/2024 17:15

ashkv - your own posts seem to contradict each other. Did you sell out of TXP at 80p or at 90p? If this complete exit was in September 2022, when and at what price did you buy back in?