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26/10/2021
07:40 | croasdalelfc: Production from Maari in Q3 was 3243 net to JSE prospective 69% or around 300k barrels to JSE for the Q. I had anticipated 320k barrels but MR8 shut in early August due to ESP failure. Workover commenced in mid October. Source: Cue resources
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18/10/2021
13:15 | croasdalelfc: The CAGR of the share price is outstripping the 10% growth of the dividend. I would like divi growth to be nearer 20% as it started at a low base but on the other hand - a large cash pile for acquisitions is important as the next acquisition is likely to be a substantial Cash has also been squeezed by the large capex in H2 2021 ($90m) and production weighted to Q4 (probably 1.5m barrels) with cash from that production likely late Dec or Jan JSE is also 'owed' a cash pile from Maari acquisition which is probably $50m now and $60m by year end.I
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12/10/2021
12:56 | holdbucket: MT as always some very interesting stuff there with what certainly looks like 'the perfect storm' for O&G. JSE seems to be a great horse to back but any others? (JSE and TXP and my biggest holdings)
What's the latest with US shale? They must be itching to get going at these prices but there's bankers with burnt fingers, Biden and is this oil price short lived (I don't think it is as all but...)
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11/10/2021
16:32 | thommie: as good as the high oil price is currently feeling for oil companies it will make it much harder to do such good and cheap aquisitions like Jse did, as assets wont be sold at such a bargain anymore. I dont expect anymore of them to happen in the time to come. on the other hand Jse can afford to pay more as they produce lots of extra cash. or they might concentrate on delivering organic growth now. Vietnam FID, lemang FID, development drilling at montara, stag and hopefully maari if the deal succeeds next year? drilling in Malaysia wont hurt as well :)
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05/10/2021
11:44 | thommie: fardel they wanna impede that you buy more Jse shares with your divi! your holding has to be quite substantial now as you seem to have bought throughout the whole year! my little divi of the 40 000 shares I own doesnt help much to move the price up... Mt probably doesnt know where to reinvest its quite large divi as so many of his holdings are currently going through the roof. not to mention the recent panr move!as already 10k buys seem to be able to move the price I dont wanna think what could happen if some II's decide to top up...
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30/9/2021
14:36 | mount teide: After a strong run driven by the performance of the BDI, taken some off the table at Clarkson this week to add 75k to the JSE holding - with production doubling in H2/2021 and OPEX guided to be below $20/bbl by year end, expecting an exceptionally strong H2/2021 and 2022 performance from JSE should Brent continue to average in the $70-$80 range.
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13/9/2021
12:57 | mount teide: Maari Acquisition
By the end of H1/2021 the average price of the 3.60 million barrels of Maari production accrued to JSE is circa $63.5/bbl.
This should have generated revenue of circa $229 million. Assuming Brent averages $70 in H2/2021 and the current rate of production is maintained, by the end of 2021, the average price of the circa 4.16 million barrels of accrued production should have generated revenue of circa $275 million.
Assuming an average OPEX to the end of 2021 of $22/bbl, this should have generated around $180m of operating cash flow before modest Capex and other adjustments - for an asset with a purchase price of $50 million.
Therefore, the final cheque given to JSE to take the Maari asset off their hands (inclusive of the FSPO with a current valuation attributable to JSE of circa $50m) is likely to be very meaty - possibly in the $50-$75m.
So, it's pleasing to note that both seller and buyer are still fully committed to completing the deal as soon as the legislation moving through the NZ Parliament permits.
AIMHO/DYOR
Data source - Cue Energy and Horizon Oil
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31/8/2021
19:23 | thommie: dudie, you are right, that this could happen. but as omv tends to divest all of their mature oil fields and commited to an extension of the long stop date many times in the past I doubt they will do that. and it will finally mean that if the deal falls through they wont find any other buyer in the future for it and have to keep it till decom... if they decide to do so I dont really see much headroom for compensations to Jse as I guess Jse is interested in many more assets of omv (like their last malaysia aquisition from omv) and wont play the hard game. but ofc maybe omv plays fair and gives jse another good mature asset for an even better price compensating for loosing the cash generating maari which currently accounts for 3500 bopd production plus a check of currently around 60m $ plus x ...another malaysia one which received a 10mio cheque plus highly low opex cash generating assets with upside potential where 2/3 of decom costs are already paid for through a fund wouldnt feel wrong to me :)anyone knows what other mature assets omv is sitting on?
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01/8/2021
15:09 | mount teide: FB - JSE's London IPO date was also the date of the highest Brent price in 7 years!
So, while the date may have been 'meaningful' to JSE, you should bear in mind it proved the worst date in 7 years for JSE to list relative to the oil price.
Consequently, the date is a very useful industry benchmark to analyse how JSE performed relative to the rest of the O&G sector in a rapidly falling oil price market, that bottomed at an all time low some 90% down just 18 months later.
The results speak for themselves - the overwhelming majority of the market is still 30-60% down, very much in line with the average fall in the price of Brent since Jadestone's IPO date.
Ps - like many, I tend to use performance comparison dates when I bought the overwhelming majority of my holdings; which was at the IPO date/price for Jadestone in 2018 and summer 2017 for Touchstone( which peaked earlier this year 24 times up from its IPO price - so is also very hard done by using JSE's IPO date).
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27/2/2021
10:40 | mount teide: Buffy..........relative to investment risk......I see JSE as my O&G sector banker.....its an ultra high cash flow/bbl production business at $65 Brent, run by an outstanding management who have demonstrated to the sector for well over two decades they're virtually peerless at generating capital growth as specialist second phase O&G field acquirers, operators and developers.
I have seven figures holdings in TXP, JSE, SAVE and PTAL. If forced to hold only one for the next 5 years - it would be JSE, since i believe it would offer, for my risk appetite, the best combination of low risk upside potential and outstanding downside protection for a single all-in O&G sector holding.
In 2020, the JSE management demonstrated what they can do in an oil market with record low prices - at $65 Brent, inclusive of the IMO 2020 premium, JSE generates cash flow per barrel equivalent to what much of the O&G industry were generating when Brent was averaging over $100/bbl between 2010-2014.
With production being ramped up during 2021, and a year end production exit rate of perhaps 17-18,000 bopd(assuming Maari completes as expected); a "high $teen/bbl OPEX during Q4/2021", at the current Brent price, this could generate another huge step change increase in the current excellent cash generation going into 2022.
In addition, it was clear that the next acquisition is very likely to be a producing asset ....Paul sounded very bullish on this yesterday... "little competition, many sellers ... a buyers market!".
So, JSE could well be a 20,000+ bopd producer in 2022 with sub $20/bbl OPEX,- such a production growth scenario could potentially generate cash flows of circa $400m per annum at $65 Brent(plus IMO 2020 Premiums) and $600m at $100 Brent.
While the other O&G holdings may well have the potential to achieve a better capital growth performance than JSE over the next 3-4 years, I consider JSE's risk reward to be superior, particularly when considering the excellent downside protection, which today, despite its importance proving the test of time over at least 70 years of stock market history, and which proved invaluable for JSE in 2020, seems to be given a much lower investment case weighting by many PI's than it deserves, if many of the comments on Advfn are a reliable guide.
What the two high performing hedge funds(and I suspect many PI's) want is for Paul Blakeley and his team to continue replicating at Jadestone, what they did outstandingly successfully at Talisman Energy North Sea and SE Asia. ie use the same low risk O&G business MO of buying and operating efficiently, high quality assets with excellent re-investment potential, acquired at valuations which meet or exceed their demanding screening process.
As Edgar Bergen (and Warren Buffett) so aptly said, “Hard work never killed anyone, but why take the risk”.
AIMHO/DYOR
ps; if the question was; "which has the greatest potential for capital growth over a 1-2 year outlook regardless of risk to the investment capital": then SAVE, which like JSE is a very high cash flow generating business with near 80% operating margins and more than 94% of its revenues underwritten by the World Bank, and currently the subject of very strong interest from new investors would have been my selection.
Declaration - I hold 2.2m in SAVE, 90% of which were purchased at an average of circa 9.0p in December 2020, following the announcement in Lloyds List that the African continent's first mega shipping port and industrial city to challenge the dominance of the Chinese and SE Asian giants, had received Government approval and would be built in SAVE's back garden, where they're the sole provider of nat gas for clean energy generation, to the three hugely under-utilised power stations which service the province and, own the associated 260km network of gas pipeline infrastructure.
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PLUS1
