Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 11:14

I was on the call today - did I miss the mention as the COO hire process?

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 11:04

Was reviewing JSE share price performance - and it startling that JSE is only 15% or above 52 week low of 21.75p on 31 July 2023 (Brent $84.5 on 31 July 2023 versus approx $90 at present)!!!

With Akatara imminent - 2 months give or take a few days.

RBL Redetermination done!!!

Mid-Guiance 21,000 boe/d FY 2024

Exit Production 2024 Between 25-30,000 boe/d - my extrapolation!!!

Net cash in April 2024!!! And most likely net cash / or close to YE 2024!!!

Yes a significant negative in one-off super high costs for Stag and Montara in 2024, along with Montara repair delays!!! However, high oil price, Penmal outperformance YE 2023 drills, CWLH acquisitions etc, Vietnam asset guidance etc etc being fully overlooked!!!!

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 10:50

If Akatara is producing timely it's likely to get rolled into the RBL redetermination by End of September.

Also talk of accretive M&A - would think there's a lot of scope there given the $200m facility having been drawn down and cash roughly equalling that amount available.

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 10:46

On akatara - buyer has signalled taking additional volume - which would be at 20% premium.

Also additional opportunities to have more processing facilities.

The conference call is well worth listening to.

Two points of downside from today:

- Slight reduction in upper end of production guidance but it's marginal

- I get a slight sense of possibility of Akatara delay but suspect weeks not months.

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 10:39

One other thing no-one has mentioned the Woodside deal would have been financed without any equity. That should indicate the level of confidence lenders have in Jadestone's mgmt team.

[tom111] 29/4/2024 10:11

According to a poster on lse he quotes from this mornings presentation that others are interested in buying the gas at a 20% premium,nice

[yasx] 29/4/2024 10:09

Seems an entente cordiale is in place…. would never have thought it!

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 09:57

I will accept some responsibility for liking debate and letting that overflow - let's try and work together rather than against.

[pughman] 29/4/2024 09:57

MT, Stag is more of an issue for me than Montara. They spent $60m on 2 infills at the end of 22, with talk of 4000bpd. That never happened, production never even reached 3000 during 23, with H2 production of under 2500 falling behind H1. With cyclone activity I'd expect Q1 production of 2000 tops,JSE need every cent of that $100 oil to cover costs. If you consider 40% of production was hedged at $70, the numbers for Stag are shocking. What's Blakeley's solution, another costly infill program that doesn't deliver shareholder value.

[fardels bear] 29/4/2024 09:56

Full steam ahead as far as I can see. Or maybe that should be gas.

[oilinvestoral] 29/4/2024 09:56

"Crikey Al - for once we agree on almost everything!"--------------When you're not provocatively argumentative (for the sake of it) about the most simple / obvious/ basic points, I suspect you might be a decent guy.Will give you some reprieve (from the iggy bin) for now and reassess the situation going forward in due course ...

[mount teide] 29/4/2024 09:31

The outlook statement suggests delivery of the step change improvement/re-engineering of the business remains on track - reassuring to have conformation that Akatara remains on schedule to deliver first gas in Q2/2024, as the production contribution from this important project is critical to the successful delivery of production guidance for 2024.

Full Year Results - Akatara's Estimated Reserves have been booked at a 38% uplift to the Estimated Resource Statement for the project currently on the website for the project:

'The Akatara gas field has been independently estimated to contain a 2C gross resource (pre local government back-in right) of 63.74 bscf of sales gas, 2.45 mm bbls of condensate and 5.64 mm boe of LPG, equating to a combined 18.7 mm boe of gross resource.'

Today's RNS
'The Akatara gas field has been independently estimated to contain 2P gross reserves (pre local government back-in rights) of 81.4 bcf of sales gas, 2.8 mmbbls of condensate and 9.5 mmboe of LPG, equating to a combined 25.9 mmboe of reserves.


Pughman - last post on Stag:

Stag - 'Operating costs guided at $70m for 2024. For an average of 2,500 bopd, this would suggest a capex/bbl of $77, dropping to $66/bbl in 2025 at the guided $60m annual operating cost and same production.

The additional cost of the shuttle tanker in permanent attendance over having an FPSO over the field was $16m in 2024 - this arrangement has had the effect of lifting annual opex by $17.5 bbl. In 2024/5 an average oil sales price of $100/bbl inclusive of a $15 low sulphur premium would generate sufficient cash flow to drill 2 further infill wells to raise production to 4,000 bopd in 2025....where a $65m annual operating cost would see the potential for the Opex drop to $44.5/bbl.'

Production was likely to average around 2,600 bopd and 2,400 bopd in H1/2024 and H2/2024 respectively. However, the H1 figure may well have been impacted by the cyclone season.

Current oil sales price premium is a very healthy $15.88/bbl......suggesting the realised price is currently comfortably north of $100 bbl.

AIMHO/DYOR

[1ajm] 29/4/2024 09:28

Not even worth replying with an anwser Nigel.

[neo26] 29/4/2024 09:28

At least the wells for akatara are getting tested, what price are they getting for 1mcf?Next few months are interesting.

[1ajm] 29/4/2024 09:25

1. testing of the RBL max lending capacity in march.

2.The potential 24k equivalent outlook being downgraded up to 20% to likely towards 20k, of which is lost oil bopd and gained gas while affirming JSE having such large overheads. 4k bopd is more than Akatara revenue.


Akatara simply not going off the rails, progessing as expected isn't really that important when looking at upside, unless your faith in JSE is absolutly zero and them doing simply as they stated is upside, now you mention it......maybe you guys are secretly more negative then me, why all the disagreeing?

What are you guys reading?

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 09:11

These posters have nothing bad to say about JSE, infact they target someone mentioning downsides/risks while the share price has gone from 100p to 27p.

This is also utter drivel. Many posters me included have been very critical of management and have taken them to task via IMC questions or directly talking with the company.

What exactly have you done?

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 09:00

I have been quite negative on JSE including CEO - when it warranted but given the share price / outlook I am positive.

ACT you were plugging and went long TRIN when in the low 60s - and look where it is today. Sometimes turn-arounds take time. Or they turn out to be basket cases...

Arlington Chetwynd Talbott29 Apr '24 - 08:03 - 21520 of 21536
0 0 0
How do you explain the market reaction to the RNS then? You have been ramping this all the way down - seems like you have only ever been considering one side of the argument. At least 1AJM seems to be considering both.

[sea7] 29/4/2024 08:31

As at year end, Montara and the CWLH Assets have US$3.8 billion (2022: US$3.5 billion) and US$493.4 million (2022: US$535.5 million) of unutilised carried forward PRRT credits, respectively. Based on Directors' latest forecasts, the historic accumulated PRRT net losses are larger than cumulative future expected PRRT taxable profits. Accordingly, Montara and the CWLH Assets are not anticipated to incur any PRRT expense in the future of the asset

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 08:21

Crikey Al - for once we agree on almost everything!

You are right of course about net cash - dipped into it comfortably but then back out again probably in April with payments.

[sea7] 29/4/2024 08:17

akatara...

During testing, one well achieved a maximum flow rate of approximately 9 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d), with data from the well test supporting the current Akatara 2P reserves estimate. The well is designated to supply pre-commissioning and commissioning gas for the AGPF, while the second well is intended for use as an injector/disposal well.

A campaign with a 550 HP rig to work-over the planned five wells commenced in Q1 2024. Currently, four out of five well workovers have been completed and tested at an aggregate stabilised rate of c.30 mmcf/d, ready to deliver the gas production required to fulfil the daily contract quantity under the gas sales agreement.

[neo26] 29/4/2024 08:15

2023 is gone and history, time to look forward to 2024 and beyond.

[sea7] 29/4/2024 08:14

on akatara...

Currently, the Group is focused on testing all equipment, testing, cleaning and reinstatement of interconnecting pipe, electrical and instrument testing at both the gas plant and metering station, and the hydrotesting of the gas pipeline. Overall progress of the project had reached 95.72% completion at the end of March 2024. Pre-commissioning and commissioning activities commenced in November 2023 and continued into early Q1 2024 for utility systems, with further progression towards commissioning for the process system. Commercial production remains on track to start in Q2 2024.

[oilinvestoral] 29/4/2024 08:14

Full disclosure this is my biggest holding (slightly ahead of AET). Let's call a spade a spade! The results for 2023 are not good but were largely to be expected.The narrowing/ lowering of guidance will probably peeve the market as that was a theme for the past 2 years. Reserve replacement was excellent and montara is now less significant CWLH addition looks amazing and hopefully we can continue to add to our stake there!Although it might appear to some we are net cash in April, we are probably net debt due to other disclosed commitments that need to be paid this month. I expect us to start going net cash from June July.Overall happy and will add it drops significantly!

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 08:13

It is a rather odd reaction to a very reassuring set of results and outlook statement.

It's early - lots of tin pot margin traders around - like you I took the opportunity to top up.