Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 29/4/2024 13:50

I should alter advice to opinion unless you have a license.

[neo26] 29/4/2024 13:41

The fact that jse produced 17kbopd in q1 2024 and brent close to $90 and jse receiving premium prices to that, jse are undervalued.Add akatara which will produce at least 30mmcfd come end of q2, at $7 per mcf that is additional $70m additional revenue per annum.

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 13:16

For the near term catalysts ->

Akatara Start / Ramp-up
Akatara further contracts
Brent Price
Q2 Operational Update ex-Akatara
Q2 Financial Update -> Net Debt lower
Further Acquisitions?
Hire of vacant COO role
New CEO

Any others?

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 13:10

Sharing is caring - Fyi Please do your own due diligence!!!



Brent Current Price -> $89.00
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23 -> 28.57%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 55p on 16 May 23 -> -50.91%
Shares Outstanding -> 540,817,144
GBPUSD -> 1.2500
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance Revised Apr 24 (20,000-22,000 Boe/d) -> 21,000
Jadestone Q1 2024 Average Production -> 17,200
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down) -> 13,800
Production Average for 2022 -> 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 March 24 -> $200,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 March 24 -> $121,800,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 March 24 -> -$78,200,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility) -> $35,000,000
Available Liquidity -> $156,800,000
Market Cap (GBP) -> £146,020,629
Market Cap (USD) -> $182,525,786
ENTERPRISE VALUE (EV) (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD) -> $260,725,786
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,000 Boe/d -> $12,416
EV/Barrel(USD) Q1 2024 Average Production -> $15,158
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down) -> $18,893
JSE Decommissioning Expense Liability i.e. Asset Restoration Liability per FY 2023 Results -> $603,902,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 Exit Production 23,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per FY 2023 Results to EV] -> $37,593
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE YEAR END 2024 Exit Production 26,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per FY 2023 Results to EV] -> $33,255
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2023 -> 68,000,000
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2023 + 6.8 mmBoe Second CWLH Acquisition H1 2024 -> 74,800,000
EV/2P -> $3.49
EV(Including Decommissioning Costs)/2P -> $11.56

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 13:09

Look back at my posts - if you don't have better things to undertake!!!

Sell out of TRIN and move into TXP - you will have better returns.. my humble investment advice :)

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 29/4/2024 11:50

When were you negative on JSE?

[yasx] 29/4/2024 11:02

There is a real sense that the market lacks confidence in PB-even the positive strides in the announcement today have been overshadowed by a few mild revisions to the downside.

It just seems that the market fears a negative surprise may spring at any time, be that Stag, Montara or the prospect of delays elsewhere such as Akatara. I for one welcome PB being replaced as a fresh start is badly needed here.

I am also cautious of Tyrus and what their long term objectives are. One hopes there are no egregious intentions and PB/Tyrus have and are playing with a straight bat. I think they are, but am keeping an eye on the overall picture.

[ptolemy] 29/4/2024 10:48

As I mentioned before PB due to retire soon. Surely he'll want to go out on a positive note.

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 10:14

I was on the call today - did I miss the mention as the COO hire process?

[ashkv] 29/4/2024 10:04

Was reviewing JSE share price performance - and it startling that JSE is only 15% or above 52 week low of 21.75p on 31 July 2023 (Brent $84.5 on 31 July 2023 versus approx $90 at present)!!!

With Akatara imminent - 2 months give or take a few days.

RBL Redetermination done!!!

Mid-Guiance 21,000 boe/d FY 2024

Exit Production 2024 Between 25-30,000 boe/d - my extrapolation!!!

Net cash in April 2024!!! And most likely net cash / or close to YE 2024!!!

Yes a significant negative in one-off super high costs for Stag and Montara in 2024, along with Montara repair delays!!! However, high oil price, Penmal outperformance YE 2023 drills, CWLH acquisitions etc, Vietnam asset guidance etc etc being fully overlooked!!!!

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 09:50

If Akatara is producing timely it's likely to get rolled into the RBL redetermination by End of September.

Also talk of accretive M&A - would think there's a lot of scope there given the $200m facility having been drawn down and cash roughly equalling that amount available.

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 09:46

On akatara - buyer has signalled taking additional volume - which would be at 20% premium.

Also additional opportunities to have more processing facilities.

The conference call is well worth listening to.

Two points of downside from today:

- Slight reduction in upper end of production guidance but it's marginal

- I get a slight sense of possibility of Akatara delay but suspect weeks not months.

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 09:39

One other thing no-one has mentioned the Woodside deal would have been financed without any equity. That should indicate the level of confidence lenders have in Jadestone's mgmt team.

[tom111] 29/4/2024 09:11

According to a poster on lse he quotes from this mornings presentation that others are interested in buying the gas at a 20% premium,nice

[yasx] 29/4/2024 09:09

Seems an entente cordiale is in place…. would never have thought it!

[nigelpm] 29/4/2024 08:57

I will accept some responsibility for liking debate and letting that overflow - let's try and work together rather than against.

[pughman] 29/4/2024 08:57

MT, Stag is more of an issue for me than Montara. They spent $60m on 2 infills at the end of 22, with talk of 4000bpd. That never happened, production never even reached 3000 during 23, with H2 production of under 2500 falling behind H1. With cyclone activity I'd expect Q1 production of 2000 tops,JSE need every cent of that $100 oil to cover costs. If you consider 40% of production was hedged at $70, the numbers for Stag are shocking. What's Blakeley's solution, another costly infill program that doesn't deliver shareholder value.

[fardels bear] 29/4/2024 08:56

Full steam ahead as far as I can see. Or maybe that should be gas.

[oilinvestoral] 29/4/2024 08:56

"Crikey Al - for once we agree on almost everything!"--------------When you're not provocatively argumentative (for the sake of it) about the most simple / obvious/ basic points, I suspect you might be a decent guy.Will give you some reprieve (from the iggy bin) for now and reassess the situation going forward in due course ...

[mount teide] 29/4/2024 08:31

The outlook statement suggests delivery of the step change improvement/re-engineering of the business remains on track - reassuring to have conformation that Akatara remains on schedule to deliver first gas in Q2/2024, as the production contribution from this important project is critical to the successful delivery of production guidance for 2024.

Full Year Results - Akatara's Estimated Reserves have been booked at a 38% uplift to the Estimated Resource Statement for the project currently on the website for the project:

'The Akatara gas field has been independently estimated to contain a 2C gross resource (pre local government back-in right) of 63.74 bscf of sales gas, 2.45 mm bbls of condensate and 5.64 mm boe of LPG, equating to a combined 18.7 mm boe of gross resource.'

Today's RNS
'The Akatara gas field has been independently estimated to contain 2P gross reserves (pre local government back-in rights) of 81.4 bcf of sales gas, 2.8 mmbbls of condensate and 9.5 mmboe of LPG, equating to a combined 25.9 mmboe of reserves.


Pughman - last post on Stag:

Stag - 'Operating costs guided at $70m for 2024. For an average of 2,500 bopd, this would suggest a capex/bbl of $77, dropping to $66/bbl in 2025 at the guided $60m annual operating cost and same production.

The additional cost of the shuttle tanker in permanent attendance over having an FPSO over the field was $16m in 2024 - this arrangement has had the effect of lifting annual opex by $17.5 bbl. In 2024/5 an average oil sales price of $100/bbl inclusive of a $15 low sulphur premium would generate sufficient cash flow to drill 2 further infill wells to raise production to 4,000 bopd in 2025....where a $65m annual operating cost would see the potential for the Opex drop to $44.5/bbl.'

Production was likely to average around 2,600 bopd and 2,400 bopd in H1/2024 and H2/2024 respectively. However, the H1 figure may well have been impacted by the cyclone season.

Current oil sales price premium is a very healthy $15.88/bbl......suggesting the realised price is currently comfortably north of $100 bbl.

AIMHO/DYOR

[1ajm] 29/4/2024 08:28

Not even worth replying with an anwser Nigel.

[neo26] 29/4/2024 08:28

At least the wells for akatara are getting tested, what price are they getting for 1mcf?Next few months are interesting.

[1ajm] 29/4/2024 08:25

1. testing of the RBL max lending capacity in march.

2.The potential 24k equivalent outlook being downgraded up to 20% to likely towards 20k, of which is lost oil bopd and gained gas while affirming JSE having such large overheads. 4k bopd is more than Akatara revenue.


Akatara simply not going off the rails, progessing as expected isn't really that important when looking at upside, unless your faith in JSE is absolutly zero and them doing simply as they stated is upside, now you mention it......maybe you guys are secretly more negative then me, why all the disagreeing?

What are you guys reading?