Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 15/4/2024 10:11

That would be good. Keep this focused on Jadestone.

[premium beeks] 15/4/2024 10:01

Take the politics elsewhere eh?

[neo26] 15/4/2024 10:00

Iran is not a pariah state, israelnis the pariah state.

[premium beeks] 15/4/2024 07:20

Nice start to the week

[tim000] 14/4/2024 16:02

Yes, agree with all that. There is a lot of pressure on Netanyahu coming from all left wing sources to agree a ceasefire and get the hostages home - The Times of Israel is extremely anti Netanyahu. But as you say, there are probably very few left alive and the cost of any deal would be far too high. It’s clear Hamas’ leadership in Qatar etc are fearful of being assassinated and are losing the war.

[fireplace22] 14/4/2024 15:54

By all accounts Iran is a pariah amongst most Arab countries and the attack by Hamas was to prevent further detente with the likes of Saudi Arabia - after Israel went into to Gaza, the Saudis could hardly be seen to identify with Israel. Noticeable that Jordanian forces downed Irani missiles last night.
A ceasefire is probably impossible as it would require the release of hostages, most of whom are unfortunately probably now dead.

[fireplace22] 14/4/2024 15:34

Israel made the decision to attack Iran early Sunday morning, but that plan was canceled after a phone call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden, The New York Times reported, citing US officials.

The officials noted that Biden told Israel that its defense against the barrage of Iranian drones and missiles was "a major strategic victory" and that Israeli retaliation wasn't needed, The New York Times reported.

This is a developing story.

[tim000] 14/4/2024 15:13

I’ve increased my JSE holding by a third this week, looks far too cheap given the impending growth of production.

[tim000] 14/4/2024 15:12

MT, what’s new I think is the joining of forces between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, who despise western values; the predominant use of the dollar in commodities markets in which they trade; and the use of NATO to thwart their imperialist expansion plans. As you say, this has happened exactly because they see enfeebled leadership throughout the west - with more money being spent on woke agendas than on defence. As authoritarian dictatorships, they can play the long game - as Putin is doing in Ukraine, slowly grinding down the west’s will to engage in warfare. China is no doubt looking at pursuing a similar strategy wrt Taiwan. I don’t see this power struggle easing anytime soon, suggesting an oil premium will continue perhaps indefinitely.

[mount teide] 14/4/2024 14:24

To the Iranian's and their proxies Biden's one word "don't" proved about as effective as Obama's "red line in the sand" in Syria, which they immediately stepped over and laughed in his face. Likewise, within a few days of Biden lecturing the Iranians, their leadership launch 300 drones and missiles at Israel.

Whatever the left may think of Trump he managed to keep the Iranians, Russians, Chinese and North Koreans from launching wars during his 4 years in the White House.

Heightened political tension and conflict in the Middle East has historically led to oil market traders building in a price premium, until cooler heads prevail.

[fireplace22] 14/4/2024 14:17

No, Bidens (and Obama's) attitude to Iran has emboldened and bankrolled them by unfreezing funds to put them in a position able cause this mayhem and worse with their nuclear ambitions. The mans a disaster yet we'll probably still get 4 more years of him or his ilk.

[tom111] 14/4/2024 13:41

Israel certainly dont

[fireplace22] 14/4/2024 11:44

oooh don't know about tom, that might upset Joe too much, but then again he told the Iranians 'not to' and they did so it seems no one is listening to him anymore.

[tom111] 14/4/2024 11:10

As they were saying on American News this is the excuse Israel want to cut off the snakes head,whether they do it is a different matter

[nigelpm] 14/4/2024 10:59

It looks the heat has come out already. Amazing defence by Israel, US, UK and others. Clearly Israel won't just sit there and take it though so volatility a certainty.

[croasdalelfc] 14/4/2024 10:09

$2 jump with a drift lower .... parity by end of the night

[tom111] 14/4/2024 06:41

With iran attacking Israel overnight with 300 dromes and missiles wonder how the oil market will respond tomorrow

[mount teide] 13/4/2024 18:55

Update to an earlier post:

Montara - JSE got the opex/bbl at Montara down to circa $20 at 9,000 bopd within 12-18 months of taking over the asset - from $50-60/bbl at circa $6-7,000 bopd prior to compilation of the deal.

The management need to explain how at a guided average production of 5,500 bopd for 2024, Montara's opex/bbl is back up to $60.

When Montara's Opex/bbl was $20 from production averaging circa 9,000 bopd, the operating costs were circa $65m/year. In 2024, Montara'a operating costs are being guided at $120m for average production of 5,500 bopd.

$55m a year increase (of which $14m is for charter of the shuttle tanker) - the additional $41m would have comfortably covered the cost of the work required by Nopsema on the Montara Venture being carried out in a SE Asian Shipyard, in a scenario where the field would probably have been off production for a maximum of 6 months. When the FSPO at the Afentra 3/05 Angola field went to a SE Asian yard to undertake a Special Survey and a major 4-5 month life extension work programme, at its peak there were over 2,000 low cost yard operatives at work on the FPSO.

In comparison, by carrying out the inspection, remedial and repair work on Montara Venture in-situ, the onboard accommodation facilities will have limited Jadestone to a maximum of perhaps 40-50 highly salaried Australian ship maintenance contractors. Resulting in the protracted remediation of the issues affecting Montara Venture since June 2022.....and the fire fighting of the financial issues that subsequently arose from the loss of such a large amount of high value production/cash flow over such a long period of time.

It was Paul Blakeley who said in 2020 that after reducing Montara's opex/bbl to $20, that the asset would be Jadestone's 'Cash Cow' for the coming decade - however, the poor management of the regulatory inspection and maintenance of Montara Venture Jadestone inherited and in some respects continued, particularly during the pandemic, destroyed the credibility of that reasonable claim at the time.

In 2025, Montara's operating costs are guided to drop by $25m (the annual cost of the charter of the shuttle tanker would account for circa $17.5m of this) to $95m. Suggesting, that at an average production of say 5,000 to 5,500 bopd, the opex/bbl would be circa $50.....a figure I think has the potential to prove conservative, considering the huge cost of the work being carried out in-situ this year falling away in 2025.

Stag - Operating costs guided at $70m for 2024. For an average of 2,500 bopd, this would suggest a capex/bbl of $77, dropping to $66/bbl in 2025 at the guided $60m annual operating cost and same production.

The additional cost of the shuttle tanker in permanent attendance over having an FPSO over the field was $16m in 2024 - this arrangement has had the effect of lifting annual opex by $17.5 bbl. In 2024/5 an average oil sales price of $100/bbl inclusive of a $15 low sulphur premium would generate sufficient cash flow to drill 2 further infill wells to raise production to 4,000 bopd in 2025....where a $65m annual operating cost would see the potential for the Opex drop to $44.5/bbl.


AIMHO/DYOR

[tom111] 13/4/2024 16:18

Yes Montara and Stag are being diluted ever increasingly so.Some people are just not up to speed lol

[upwego] 13/4/2024 12:38

Ankatara coming on shortly - big increase in production and revenue.

Very pivotal moment for the business and share price
Monday could be the last chance buying under 30p

[tom111] 13/4/2024 11:51

"Was"being the operative word pughman.Quote "huge sales at 26p" but we are now 29.50p

[pughman] 13/4/2024 11:35

The share price increase is down to the $9 rise in the oil price since suspension, a sector rally and relief at the Woodside deal not going through.As to operational and financial progress, that remains to be seen. What is beyond doubt are the costs of producing oil from Montara and Stag in 24 at $60 and $75 are obscene. That is Blakeley's bread and butter, and an embarrassment.

[mount teide] 13/4/2024 10:44

Shareprice up 23%(and a peak of 29%) in 1.5 days post resumption of trading on a very strong 12 million transaction volume, the highest in nearly a year, suggests the market likes the operational and financial progress being made in 2024 and value on offer, and like many here, that Woodside has elected to cancel the divestment of the participating interests in their Macedon and Pyrenees assets.

Woodside stated that it “remains disciplined and value-driven when considering any potential merger and acquisition transaction, including divestments”. Suggesting the cancellation of this latest proposed divestment should not have been too surprising to the market, since in February, a planned mega merger of Australia's two largest independent energy companies, Woodside and Santos, also fell through after the companies failed to agree on a price.

[stockhunters] 12/4/2024 15:20

oil and gas on the move good for companies like JSE