Just think, If the media cut out the drivel then the politicians would never be featured. We can only hope. |
On that we agree ! |
Quite winnet- you should continue to post as you please.First of all, JSE is one of my largest holdings !There was no "drivel" in your post ! The only "drivel" I read was in response to your post. There are certain posters who have no original thoughts or any new ideas but simply lambast & poopoo others' ideas!For what it's worth, I find the guided OPEX between $250 million - $300 million shocking! Nearly $40/bbl on average is quite frankly unacceptable! They need to get this down to sub $30/bbl ASAFP ! When you include G&A , interest and debt repayments , that leaves very little for shareholders! You are quite right to highlight the need to enhance operating margins ASAFP. They might need another acquisition to further reduce the overall average . |
 I would not be surprised to see petrovietnam, as the development partner in this...
Dated March 2024
In particular, up to now, Petrovietnam has basically completed institutions and policies for oil and gas activities for stable and long-term development (Law on Petroleum 2022, Decree No. 45 issued on 01/7/2023 guiding the implementation of the Law on Petroleum).
According to Fitch Ratings, Petrovietnam has a strong influence on the country’s socio-economic development; PetroVietnam’s activities have a material impact on the entire energy value chain in Vietnam. The fact that Petrovietnam has been assessed for the 5th consecutive year with an independent credit rating of BB+ is an accurate reflection of Petrovietnam’s strong business and financial situation with a high level of connectivity in all fields of operation.
With 5 core fields of operation: oil and gas exploration and production, gas industry, electricity industry - renewable energy, petrochemical refining industry, high quality petroleum technical services, the total asset of Petrovietnam up to now is about 998 trillion dong. |
vietnam...
Profit oil/gas split: after cost recovery, the remaining production (profit oil/gas) is split between the state (via PVN) and the contractors. The state’s share typically increases with the level of production.
State participation: PVN often has the right to participate in the project with an equity interest, which can range from 10% to 50%. |
MT, I think they have mentioned before the need to bring in development partners and not go alone.
I suspect there will be no movement on this until the gas sales agreement is signed so the return on investment can be calculated.
One question. Though Jadestone has a 100 percent working interest does the Vietnamese government automatically get a percentage of the production? |
I agree but respectfully (and dont want to appear unhappy) don't think it's going to make much difference to the share price (for the moment) as the true (financial) impact, whilst looking potentially positive, is still some way in the future? |
It has taken an age to get here but that is the most important announcement for some time. Lets hope the increased engagement continues through to FID. |
RNS - Submission of Field Development Plan for Vietnam assets
'A financing plan, which could involve bringing in development partners, would be progressed in parallel with major contract tenders (including the EPCI contract and FPSO), with both finalised prior to project FID and any significant expenditure.'
Good to hear that the financing plan potentially includes binging in development partners to reduce the execution risk and upfront cost through to first production.
Adel Chaouch, Executive Chairman of Jadestone, commented:
“Our Vietnam gas assets are fundamental to Jadestone’s investment case and are central to our strategic aim of being the leading Asia-Pacific upstream independent. Development of the discovered resource base will drive significant organic growth and value creation for our shareholders, with further material upside possible from additional prospects and leads across our licence position.
Submission of an FDP is therefore a major milestone in the commercialization of the Nam Du/U Minh discoveries and demonstrates real momentum in our engagement with the Vietnam government. The development of Nam Du/U Minh would be a win-win for both Jadestone and Vietnam, delivering affordable gas supplies with a lower GHG intensity to the southwest of the country, creating and sustaining jobs and economic benefits.” |
What's drivel about that, Nige? You like your production large but your profits small...?
The market is agreeing! |
You do talk some absolute drivel winnet. |
The key point is what is all this netting us? You can crow all day about production but if you're not making money post tax then you're stuffed. The estimates from people much smarter than I say not enough. They need to get a grip on the opex and ensure any capex yields quantifiable and scalable returns.
It's business school 101 stuff. |
Three quarters of the way through Q1 which should show some decent profit and cash generation - share price being treated harshly imo. |
Nearly back at lows of last year. If it doesn't bounce here it looks like heading down to new depths... |
Yes. I know cash needs to build but there no point in holding then. Market won't value it so basically come back after the sidetrack... |
Since PB left communications and transparency seem to have improved markedly.
Naturally the market wants to see evidence of operational excellence and no significant mishaps. If we get that then the financials will undoubtedly improve and with it the shareprice.
The impact of Montara has not quite left the mind of investors yet. |
yep 2025 is the year of paying down the debt, building up cash. Beyond skua drilling, there isn't much else, in terms of share price triggers, on the horizon. Its what needs to happen though |
Ironic really ...they are in the best shape ever operationally.
Part of the problem is that the probability of (exciting) inorganic additions has reduced considerably. They just need to do all they can to ensure operational excellence and build cash. This takes time. |
I have bigger dreams than that. |
Major shareholder list updated to 28th Feb
only changes are...
hargreaves increases to 4.18% from 4.12%
river global increases to 4.02% from 3.74%
ubs increases to 3.38% from 3.33% |
You ain't gonna make your 1500 quid anytime soon. We are used to it. |
What is goin on here... |
It's going to cost $62mn upfront to reach those OPEX/bbl figures.
c.US$62mm for Skua-11 well
– Forecast payback of 16 months with a 65% IRR, based on $77-81 oil price and 3,500bbls/d)
(Forcasted decline rates? oil futures?)
Valaris 247 arriving anytime soon apparently.
If in 16 months time JSE has generated their forcast cash build along with the outlook for Montara OPEX/bbl being reasonable again, they could be in a decent spot.
Will they finally break this cycle.
GLA |
Many thanks for your highly supportive comments, they're much appreciated - my recuperation from the brutal immunotherapy induced side effects experienced following the introduction of the additional Interferon treatment is continuing to progress well and hopefully will see a full recovery in this respect over the next month.
After re-reading the recent Trading Update and 2025 Guidance RNS, the new management seem to have set conservative targets which on the balance of probabilities they should be able to comfortable achieve, and likely materially exceed in some areas.
By way of example - Montara averaged 5.0k-5.5k bopd in 2024 and may likely average circa 4,5k - 5k bopd in 2025 (without any contribution from the side-track drill). With a guided 2-3 year OPEX of $95m / year - this suggests an average OPEX of $52/bbl going forward down from over $60/bbl in 2024. However, if the side track comes in at an initial production of 3,500 bopd this has the potential to initially reduce the OPEX/bbl to the $30/bbl region (Montara averaged $20/bbl back in 2019 at circa 9k/bopd). Even at an average contribution of 1.75k/bopd from the side track well, this could drop Montara's OPEX/bbl down to circa $38/bbl.
AIMHO/DYOR |
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