Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jadestone Energy Plc LSE:JSE London Ordinary Share GB00BLR71299 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 70.00 69.00 70.40 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 159.4 -41.9 -9.5 - 326

Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 11776 to 11797 of 11800 messages
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Will OPEC Cut Production On Sunday? - Michael Kern - Dec 01,

* Kpler’s lead oil analyst for the Americas believes that if OPEC doesn’t announce a production cut this Sunday, it will insinuate that cuts are coming in the future.

* OPEC has consistently shown that it wants to support prices around the $90 level, and weak Chinese demand means a supply cut may be needed to push oil prices that high.

* With the EU ban on Russian seaborne crude going into effect on Monday, OPEC may hold off on cutting production until the effect of the EU’s embargo is clear.

'OPEC could make another production cut on Sunday to further support prices, and if they do not, they will likely “insinuateR21; that cuts are coming in the future, Matthew Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst for the Americas, told CNBC live on Thursday.

“Everything we’ve heard out of OPEC in recent months is that they want to support prices around the $90 level,” Smith said, noting that in September they cut production by a small amount even when prices were closer to $100, followed by the big cut of 2 million barrels per day in October when Brent was around $90.

Some analysts have also speculated that OPEC+ may wait out the Sunday meeting, which is virtual, to see what happens the following day when European Union sanctions on Russian seaborne crude go into effect, as well as to see what the G7 decides in terms of a price cap on oil.

“It seems that we are going to get a cut from them. If we don’t we’re going to get a lot of rhetoric about doing it,” Smith said. “If they don’t cut, they’re going to insinuate that they are going to cut going forward.”

The Kpler analyst also noted that oil prices are “somewhat in check” right now because sanctions are kicking in next week. However, he cautions that seaborne crude out of Russia isn’t dropping, it’s just being redirected. “In the grand scheme of things, we’re not seeing Russian crude exports drop,” he told CNBC.

China remains the big bearish issue for the rest of this year, with Smith forecasting that China’s zero-COVID policy would likely remain in place probably until the second quarter of next year.

Earlier on Thursday, Kpler noted that OPEC output fell 550,000 barrels per day in November to 28.1 million barrels per day, in line with the October decision to slash output by 2 million bpd. '

mount teide
what impressed me - no talking and shouting, looking around ... pure concentration on the job at a slow pace.

and so clean ... nothing lying around ...

k3 - Japan is the most well organised and managed Nation I've ever visited or worked in.

May have mentioned before, was in Yokohama on a ship and the Terminal Manager came on board in the evening and asked if we would prepare the ship to commence loading cars at 6am the following morning.

Since it was my cargo watch, I was up at 5:30 to oversee the opening of the access doors to and preparation of the ship's cargo holds for the 6am start.

As I walked along the main deck at 5:30am, looked onto the quay to see around 500 dockers doing keep fit exercises!

When I later asked the Terminal Manager what that was all about, he said every shift spends half an hour before their start time 'warming up and stretching' to 'prepare' for their shift. I said "What, at their own cost?" The look he gave me was he replied "Of course"

Can just imagine the reaction at the UK and European Port Terminals I ran, if I told the dockers we would be implementing similar arrangements at OUR COST NEVER MIND THEIRS - to say the language would have been colourful would have been the understatement of the decade!

mount teide
If JSE directors had bought a meaningful amount of shares in the last 6 months, I would have added to my holding. The longer that they do not, the more apparent the market uncertainty.
As product tanker charter rates continue to soar from the cargo dislocation effects of the Ukraine war, the Scorpio Tankers (STNG) President Robert Bugbee spends $1.19m on call options for $20m worth of shares at a 8% price premium, exercisable by the end of Jan there's a man who knows how put his hand in his pocket.

A real statement of intent considering he already owns stock outright worth $18.5m.

The management are the largest shareholder in the company with $181m worth of stock, slightly ahead of Goldman Sachs and Black Rock.

Bugbee: “We are the largest shareholder in Scorpio. The irony is that very few in management actually own the stock in the companies they run.”

If there is one comment I would make directly to the JSE leadership team, is that it would very welcoming to see some of you put your hands in your pockets at 70p for more shares like many of us have been doing!

Bugbee backs Scorpio strength with second stock option deal in two weeks - TradeWind Today

'Robert Bugbee is continuing to back Scorpio Tankers by acquiring more stock options.

The New York-listed product tanker owner said its president has spent $1.19m on call options for 400,000 shares.

The strike price is $55, against a closing price of $51.02 in New York on Wednesday.

The options expire in January 2023'

mount teide
indeed MT - I spent few days in Ulsan in a monkey house hotel (white men have body hair) - observing Hyundai ship building... Impressive.... lots of organisational skills and human art (welding etc...) . it has to be the right religion, the right government, the right pay, the right (boring) nature, right educational system .... was my conclusion.

chip factory with all that climate control chambers and robots .... much less impressive

Elsa - Once the ballast and cargo tank inspection work is complete, any outstanding remediation work could, subject to the Auditor's and NOPSEMA's agreement, be carried out after production has recommenced.

I understand this has been the company's view and aim since NOPSEMA gave notice to JSE to appoint an independent auditor, to assist with returning the FPSO to a physical condition that would permit the restart of production operations, and to develop an updated maintenance programme to ensure the ongoing control of the impact of corrosion within the tolerances allowable under the rules.

mount teide
fireplace2229 Nov '22 - 15:47 - 11738 of 11755
0 4 2
tgg, I have to agree that it would have been difficult for Labour to have fared worse than the incumbent lot but it's unfair to blame Brexit on much of this as it's never been implemented.

..Eh? I didn't mention brexit, I talked about tory misrule.

Maybe £30 billion pa of income tax cuts (at a very conservative estimate) wasn't such a good idea, given they were the fruits of austerity - look at the current critical state of the NHS, underfunded for a decade....... or public transport (outside London) underfunded for decades, etc, etc.....

Mind you, I don't think anyone is suggesting that brexit is bringing any tangible benefit to the parlous state of UK PLC - When it comes to brexit, "Tangible" is my favourite word ;-#))

td - like you I strongly suspect 2023 is going to be a big year for JSE in the M&A space.

Would not surprise me if JSE ends 2023 year with production closer to 30,000 bop/d than 20,000 boep/d.

And 40,000 boep/d by H2/2024 once Lemang starts contributing - for which I'm very pleased PB went for a Japanese civil engineering contractor with long in-country experience at delivering such projects.

The Japanese are one of few Nation's I would never bet against for delivering complicated engineering projects on time and to budget. The Japanese shipbuilding industry is as reliable as a Swiss watch at delivering ships on time and to budget, and built to a very high standard of engineering, perhaps only approached by the best South Korean yards.

Ships built at Japanese yards may cost circa 10% more than at Chinese yards but, when when maintained properly, often look and operate at 20 years of age like a 5 year old Chinese built ship.

mount teide
Is it just me or has the remediation / repair process taken far longer than planned.
Initially they said repairs done by the end of September, but 2C and 4S still require small defects to be addressed 3 months after shut-in.
Then they have to inspect all of the other tanks. At this pace it will be mid-2023 before they are ready for restarting production and that is assuming there are no horrors found. There is after all no indication or comment that they have already inspected any of the other tanks yet.
MT you must be in regular contact with the company as you are a large shareholder from what I gather. Is this your sense too?

MT - Thanks - I had forgotten about Lemang Capex.
I would hope (and expect) some more non-organic growth to come along soon to boost those numbers.

td - I'm assuming that the infill well programme for 2023 at Stag and the PM assets can maintain production at or close to 20,000 bop/d. The $100m may be a little light considering the funding required for the Lemang Nat Gas asset in 2023.

I expect the management to give the market a lower production figure of circa 17,500 to 20,000 boepd for 2023, as they like to build in a decent insurance margin.

mount teide
s100 - always try to keep 3-5% of my portfolio in cash to be in a position to take advantage of opportunities thrown up by the market - and use it to treat dividend cash as good as in my account from the ex Dividend date.

I believe the Q3 SBLK dividend will likely earn a lot more over the winter invested in JSE than SBLK.......that was the reason for not hanging around investing it....that and my view that an update on Montara re-entering production could drop at any time, with the structural integrity repair work now complete.

mount teide
MT ..
I would have thought that your figure of $100m capex would give JSE more than just decline replacement - but I may be wrong? In fact what sort of blended decline would be expected now on 20000, if indeed Montara is back online by end of year?

I guess there maybe some sort of flush production initially after Montara has been shut in for months, raising rates above the expected but not sure how long that would continue for?

You've done well to invest the Q3 SBLK dividend here MT given it won't be paid for another 11 days! But I know what you mean by investing it early thinking that JSE may have moved up by then.
At 70p a share the market cap is $370m. Knocking off the estimated year end cash position of $120m, suggests an EV of circa $250m.

At a $85 Oil Sales Price($87 inclusive of IMO and regional premiums), entering 2023 with Montara back operational and total production of 20,000bopd , $100m capex, $30m admin, and a 45% blended tax rate, I get 2023 FCF of about $190m. So, an EV/FCF ratio of 1.31, and a FCF yield of about 52%!

At an $85 Oil Sales Price($87 inclusive of IMO and regional premiums), at the current est 11,000 bopd , $100m capex, $30m admin, and a 45% blended tax rate, I get a current annual FCF of about $40m. So an EV/FCF ratio of 6.25, and a FCF yield of about 11%(better than most of the S&P 500).

mount teide
Why 2023 Is Likely To See Much Higher Oil Prices - Alex Kimani / today

* Oil traders have been cautious amid a new wave of COVID-19 in China.

* The oil markets flip-flopped mid-week to refocus on the pending EU ban on seaborne Russian oil and a G7 price cap on Urals crude next week.

* Many oil analysts see higher crude prices in 2023 as pent-up demand from China could strengthen oil fundamentals in 2023.

'Earlier this week, oil prices plunged to 2022 lows as energy markets panicked about demand amid COVID chaos in China that has resulted in an unexpected and extraordinary manifestation of street protests and even calls for Chinese President Xi Jinping to step down.

The market’s response to this, according to Rystad Energy, was an overreaction. Rystad believes that China’s zero-COVID policy and its new wave of lockdowns to counter a surge in new cases will have only a minor impact on its short-term oil demand.

Indeed, the market is sentimental and fickle these days, with volatility running at an all-time high. By Wednesday, oil prices were trending in the opposite direction with just as much zeal.

Suddenly forgetting its China fears despite a worsening COVID situation there, the oil markets flip-flopped mid-week to refocus on the pending EU ban on seaborne Russian oil and a G7 price cap on Urals crude next week. Gains would have been even higher were it not for rumours of OPEC+ preparing for more output cuts.

The oil markets are trading on the day’s news, and have been since earlier this year. Unable to grasp true fundamentals. Fundamentals are now a moving target thanks to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the renewed power to control the markets by OPEC+, an uncooperative American shale industry and China’s zero-COVID policy.

Wall Street is in a state of disarray, and for commodities traders, it’s either boom or bust, on a day-to-day basis.

The volatility would be far greater without OPEC, the expanded cartel suggests. In a new study published by KAPSARC (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center), during the height of the COVID pandemic, OPEC reduced oil price volatility by 50% due to the management of its spare capacity. OPEC intervention, the report claims, boosted average oil prices during the pandemic from $18 to $54 per barrel. Now, this is serving as a justification for OPEC+’s recent decision to cut output at a time when Washington was gunning for a production increase to bring prices down.

True to form, OPEC rumours likely succeeded mid-week in calming the reversal of losses in oil price once the market decided to drop its Monday fears coming out of China and refocus on Russian oil.

So what about Wall Street?

As the Wall Street Journal notes, Wall Street is overall bullish on oil, even if that is not necessarily reflecting current prices. It’s a case of “mind the gap”.

There is a clear belief that oil prices will be much higher in 2023.

Goldman Sachs forecast $110 oil for next year, but recognizes the uncertainty. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie, global head of commodities, said that recent downgrades to oil prices were because of the dollar and China.

“First and foremost, it was the dollar. What is the definition of inflation? Too much money chasing … too few goods,” Currie told CNBC.

And on China’s COVID situation, Currie said “it’s big”. “It’s worth more than the OPEC cut for the month of November, let’s put it in perspective. And then the third factor is Russia is just pushing barrels on the market right now before the December 5th deadline for the export ban.”

JP Morgan now forecasts $90 oil for 2023, down from its earlier forecast of $98, “on the grounds that Russian production will fully normalize to pre-war levels by mid-2023”.

Rystad Energy also thinks the recent oil price plunge based on Chinese demand is overblown.

While it is true that in November, OPEC and the IEA both reduced their 2023 oil demand growth estimates because of what is happening in China, Rystad believes it will have far less impact than the market panic of Monday suggested.

"Oil markets may be misjudging news of China’s lockdown," said Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president at the Norway-based consultancy, as reported by Bloomberg.

The latest curbs “appear to be mimicking previous ones, with nationwide road traffic only marginally affected while selected provinces undergoing comparatively severe lockdowns try to suppress Covid outbreaks”.

While street protests continued in China and daily infection rates surged beyond 40,000 by Tuesday, the overall effect is not worth a 4% plunge in oil prices, as we saw on Monday. And Wall Street seems to view this as a mere “gap” and not a long-term situation that will keep oil prices from JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs’ $98-$110 ranges next year.

Brent crude delivered in August next year has a 46% probability of settling more than $20 higher than its current price, WSJ notes.

China could actually end up being the icing on the oil price cake. It’s like saving up for a surge.

“The pent-up demand out of China is going to be enormous. “That could swing demand by at least a million barrels a day, and that could easily make the difference between an oil price forecast of $95 to $105 versus $120 to $130. Easily,” Amrita Sen, director of research for Energy Aspects, told WSJ.'

mount teide
I'm craning my neck, nige but I don't see 'em. Where are all these e&ps that are flying, pray?
fardels bear
Certainly the weight of selling seems to be keeping the price stationary even with the buyback mitigating some of the selling weight. Whilst everything else in E&P universe is flying it maintains 70p - great opportunity assuming a reasonably swift return to sensible oil production from Montara.
U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory decline of 12.6 million barrels for the week to November 25.
mount teide
Invested most of the chunky 6.3% Q3 dividend yield from Star Bulk into JSE this morning - adding 27.5k.

On the basis, I expect SBLK to go largely sideways during Q4/22 and Q1/23 but, likely still generate very substantial dividends because of its huge revenue generating operational advantage over 85% of the world's Dry Bulk shipping fleet. Thought the risk/reward at JSE over the next 6-12 months is likely to offer better upside potential than reinvesting the dividends in SBLK at least until Q2/3 2023.

mount teide
Nine months after invading Ukraine and just two months before the EU's ban on diesel imports from Russia by sea commences, Europe and the UK still get 45% or 600,000 bopd of diesel from Russia's Baltic Sea refineries.

Sourced from the Middle East and SE Asia, that 600,000 bopd will require 8 times the LR2 Product Tanker capacity to handle post the ban. Good luck finding the shipping for that.......when increasing numbers of the LR2 global fleet is being chartered by Middle East crude oil producers and shippers at spot market rates around $160,000/day, due to a lack of crude oil tanker ship capacity from owners rerouting the global fleet in preparation for the EU's ban on crude oil imports from Russia commencing next week.

Europe Remains Russia's Biggest Diesel Buyer -

* The EU and the UK continued to be the largest importers of Russian diesel in November, with nearly half of seaborne diesel coming from Russia.

* With the embargo on Russian petroleum products coming into effect on February 5th, flows to the EU and the UK are rising.

* As of February 5th, Europe will have to compete with non-Russian diesel buyers for U.S., Indian, and Middle Eastern exports.

'Europe continues to be the biggest buyer of Russian diesel, with nearly half of EU and UK seaborne diesel imports having come from Russia this month, according to data from Vortexa compiled by Bloomberg.

The EU and the UK imported an average of 1.34 million barrels per day (bpd) of diesel-type fuel between November 1 and 24, of which 45% — or 600,000 bpd—came from Russia, Vortexa’s data showed.

The still high dependence on Russian diesel could become a big problem for Europe in just two months, when the EU embargo on imports of Russian oil products by sea enters into force on February 5.

Russia is still the biggest supplier of diesel to Europe, which will have to replace more than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diesel supply after February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.

“While a flood of East of Suez diesel imports has improved Europe’s positioning for the upcoming winter, Russia-Europe flows are rising again ahead of the 5 Feb EU import ban,” David Wech, Chief Economist at Vortexa, wrote in an article earlier this month.

It is even more challenging to make calls about what will happen with Russian diesel after the EU embargo than with what will happen with Russian crude oil, the ban on which begins on December 5, according to Vortexa.

Per the IEA estimates in its Oil Market Report for November, EU countries had reduced Russian diesel imports by 50,000 bpd to 560,000 bpd by October.

“When the crude and product embargoes come into full force in December and February, respectively, an additional 1.1 mb/d of crude and 1 mb/d of diesel, naphtha and fuel oil will have to be replaced,” the IEA said in the report.

As the EU embargo on imports of Russian diesel enters into force, “The competition for non-Russian diesel barrels will be fierce, with EU countries having to bid cargoes from the US, Middle East and India away from their traditional buyers,” the agency said. '

mount teide
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