Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[neo26] 25/4/2024 16:02

I love it if it comes tomorrow. :)

[sea7] 25/4/2024 15:50

rns 10th april 2024..

The March 2024 redetermination process, which will set the borrowing base for the six-month period commencing 1 April 2024, is at an advanced stage. Primarily due to the proposed changes to the RBL facility borrowing base assets, namely the de-designation of Stag as a borrowing base asset and the inclusion of the recently acquired 16.67% interest in the CWLH fields, the RBL facility banks require additional time to complete the redetermination. The Company expects to announce the results of this redetermination shortly.

Notice of Full-Year 2023 Results

Jadestone will issue its full-year 2023 consolidated audited financial results on Monday 29 April 2024.

[yasx] 25/4/2024 15:35

Thought the RBL redetermination was to be announced prior to results.

No point setting expectations then causing uncertainty.

[mount teide] 25/4/2024 14:53

Global oil demand is up over 13 mb/d since the 2020 Covid Low.

Yesterday StanChart put out a Note forecasting global oil demand will continue to pick up strongly in May and June, hitting 103.15 mb/d for the first time in May, and then rising to 103.85 mb/d in June.


Standard Chartered: Global Oil Demand Will Pick Up Strongly In May And June - Oilprice.com today.

'Oil prices have held steady week on week despite a significant inventory build in U.S. crude two weeks ago, which was countered by a draw in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ending April 19th. Next to this, traders have become less concerned about a potential supply disruption in the Middle East.

The crude inventory build at the middle of the month triggered fears that oil demand could be weakening; however, Standard Chartered estimates that global inventories will increase by only 74,000 bbls/d April, a much smaller build compared with the 2.2 mb/d build in April 2023 and the 1.4 mb/d build in April 2022. StanChart notes that the markets could be more sensitive to this change in trajectory following the strong counter-seasonal inventory draws during the first quarter of 2024.

Even better for the bulls, StanChart has forecast that global oil demand will pick up strongly in May and June, exceeding 103 mb/d for the first time in May (at 103.15 mb/d), With the next key ministerial meeting just six weeks away, concerns about demand and the macroeconomic environment are likely to dominate the meeting. StanChart says we are likely to record a 1.6 mb/d Q3 draw in stocks if there is no increase in OPEC output, compounding the price effect of a H1-2024 draw of 1.1 mb/d.

Recently, the Biden administration passed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector as part of the $95-billion foreign aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. In a move aimed at reducing Iran’s oil trade with China, the broadened sanctions now target Chinese banks that conduct transactions involving Iranian crude and products.

The sanctions now include foreign refineries, vessels, and ports that knowingly process, transfer, or ship crude oil in violation of existing sanctions. The new sanctions could prove significant in disrupting market fundamentals considering that Iran currently produces about 3 million b/d and is expected to increase output by a further 280,000 b/d this year.

StanChart has predicted that whereas the upcoming U.S. presidential election may influence the timing of the next swing down in Iranian exports, Iran’s oil flows are bound to take a hit regardless of who ascends into the Oval Office in 2025. The analysts note that existing U.S. policy instruments were enough to drive Iranian exports down to close to zero in late 2020, before the international context, and the associated implementation policies, changed.

StanChart has argued the Biden administration has room to start implementing the sanctions immediately despite the risk of increased fuel prices during an election year. StanChart notes that the record-high on the day of a U.S. presidential election is $3.492/gal in 2012 (when the incumbent won), equating to about $4.80/gal in 2024 money terms after adjusting for consumer inflation.

That’s $1.14/gal higher than current prices, with the U.S. national gasoline price average at $3.66 per gallon. StanChart says that whereas recent U.S. international oil policy has clearly been designed with a view to moderating oil price effects, it does not mean that the U.S. has necessarily chosen a policy of minimum pressure on Iranian and Russian oil exports.

The commodity experts have predicted global oil inventory draws of 1.53 mb/d in May and 1.69 mb/d in June, tightening physical spreads significantly. StanChart also says that OPEC is unlikely to increase output in the near-term thanks to the stall in the oil price rally despite having room for at least 1 mb/d of extra OPEC output in Q3 without increasing inventories.

With the next key ministerial meeting just six weeks away, concerns about demand and the macroeconomic environment are likely to dominate the meeting. StanChart says we are likely to record a 1.6 mb/d Q3 draw in stocks if there is no increase in OPEC output, compounding the price effect of a H1-2024 draw of 1.1 mb/d.

Recently, the Biden administration passed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector as part of the $95-billion foreign aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. In a move aimed at reducing Iran’s oil trade with China, the broadened sanctions now target Chinese banks that conduct transactions involving Iranian crude and products.

The sanctions now include foreign refineries, vessels, and ports that knowingly process, transfer, or ship crude oil in violation of existing sanctions. The new sanctions could prove significant in disrupting market fundamentals considering that Iran currently produces about 3 million b/d and is expected to increase output by a further 280,000 b/d this year.

StanChart has predicted that whereas the upcoming U.S. presidential election may influence the timing of the next swing down in Iranian exports, Iran’s oil flows are bound to take a hit regardless of who ascends into the Oval Office in 2025.

The analysts note that existing U.S. policy instruments were enough to drive Iranian exports down to close to zero in late 2020, before the international context, and the associated implementation policies, changed. StanChart has argued the Biden administration has room to start implementing the sanctions immediately despite the risk of increased fuel prices during an election year.

StanChart notes that the record-high on the day of a U.S. presidential election is $3.492/gal in 2012 (when the incumbent won), equating to about $4.80/gal in 2024 money terms after adjusting for consumer inflation. That’s $1.14/gal higher than current prices, with the U.S. national gasoline price average at $3.66 per gallon.

StanChart says that whereas recent U.S. international oil policy has clearly been designed with a view to moderating oil price effects, it does not mean that the U.S. has necessarily chosen a policy of minimum pressure on Iranian and Russian oil exports.'

[sea7] 25/4/2024 14:31

published a week ago re akatara...



For this ambitious project, Exakta was appointed to supply its API 674 #PositiveDisplacement reciprocating pumps for transferring #Water to the injection well. #Robust by nature, our 3C Triplex Series can withstand tropical climates marked by equatorial rainfall and violent storms, while proper mass balancing ensures quiet and #VibrationFree operation.

[neo26] 25/4/2024 14:25

1AJM spouts the same rubbish.JSE will be producing close to 19kbopd and then akatara coming online by end of q2.Mkt cap 140m. This will rerate..

[ashkv] 25/4/2024 13:25

Hear you - JSE can spring ugly surprises.

I don't have confidence in the CFO - appears a thorough incompetent for what he did to JSE last year re the RBL lapse linked equity raise.

Now he is not able to get a cookie cutter RBL update transacted on schedule!!!

[paduardo] 25/4/2024 13:12

All I want from Monday is - 1. Akatara is not delayed 2. RBL is progressing well. Given the monthly site updates have been on the 19th or 20th it is a bit concerning they havent released it yet. I am hoping it is because they are saving it for the results but having been kicked in the teeth many times by RNS's from JSE I cant help but be a bit worried : )

[ashkv] 25/4/2024 12:06

Since IT harped about the Analyst Target Prices. Here is what the Analysts have to convey on Jadestone (GBPUSD = 1.25)

Mean consensus BUY
Number of Analysts 4
Last Close Price 0.3388 USD
Average target price 0.8447 USD
Spread / Average Target +149.35%
High Price Target 1.161 USD
Spread / Highest target +242.63%
Low Price Target 0.5689 USD
Spread / Lowest Target +67.93%

[1ajm] 25/4/2024 11:16

Hi oilinvestorAL

Thankyou for the reply and information, great post.

Great operational information. If you dont mind I have a few other questions.

Do companies get any say in the abandonment fund estimates?

Are all abandonment funds funded so quickly and locked away for decades?

When the time comes is the abandonment process controlled and contractors chosen by the regulators or do companies get access to the fund and it becomes their very closely monitored project?

Are companies getting interest / returns on these funds?

If the fund estimates dont match reality when the time arrives, can they find themselves with a large pot of money? or who would be at fault if the fund was not enough if the fund levels are set by the regulators?


JSE have not gone through this process fully yet so will be interesting to see how it goes, if they are still so happy and eager to spend the coffers as they are to fill them (with large chunks of their operational cash / RBL). If they are still a thing ofcourse.

[1ajm] 25/4/2024 10:40

The share price here seem to nearly, if not always drop on a half year or full year results day, even back in the day when the figures seem decent. I think people would expect a good year to reveal massive profits but it doesn't work like that for a small aim oiler.

Ofcourse the price is so far in the garbage nowadays maybe it will be different this time. There use to be a real hype in the share price leading up to these things.

2024 so far and forward looking statment along with RBL news and akatara update are the best chance at a blue day,.


Ashkv etc...can tell you otherwise or muddy information simply by the fact I said it, like that changes anything. he's still waiting for his 'incoming' 100p chinese takeover bid. His beloved forcasters 100p predictions turned out to be 27p, now they guess under 60p he must be expecting under 20p, unfortunate.

[neo26] 24/4/2024 08:49

If we get confirmation that they produced close to 20kbopd in q1 2024 and akatara will be up and runing by end of q2 then this should rerate.

[nigelpm] 24/4/2024 08:06

There's still three full trading days pughman.

[neo26] 24/4/2024 08:03

It gonna come soon.

[pughman] 24/4/2024 07:23

I was expecting a pre results RBL RNS, to try and engender a positive vibe going into Monday, but looks like it ain't going to happen.

[sea7] 23/4/2024 08:33

Dated 18th april 2024 short clip at akatara, not sure when it was filmed though

[mrscruff] 20/4/2024 23:05

Thanks MT, personally over the long run I would like an equal split between oil and gas like Serica but do understand the faster growth of oil alone including from an attractiveness for an investor perspective. With the cost of lending so high I would agree a partner would be best. JSE could do anything this year and I remain optimistic especially as the traditional holders like Baillie Gifford are out the net buying can now begin.

[oilinvestoral] 20/4/2024 17:44

Hi 1AJM The biggest abandonment cost is by far the wells , followed by the subsea infrastructure and lastly the FPSO. A few different factors would play a role in the exact split. The main one being the complexity of the wells & the subsea infrastructure. There are certain shallow water subsea wells that you abandon in a few weeks/ well. Deep water wells take a lot longer as it can take 3-6 days just to run & retrieve the BOP (without accounting for subsurface work). The local regulations in Australia will also play a role. Some regulators in certain jurisdictions will allow you some leeway when it comes to the final abandonment design & execution (others want everything done exactly as per the book)! This adds additional time to the well abandonment. CWLH are shallow water fields located in 75-135 water depth. They should be able to abandon those using a jackup rig (which is at the very cheap end of MODUs) rather than a semi-sub. The costs will be closer to $150,000 -$200,000 a day (for the rig) rather than $500,000+. Although, the rig market is pretty tight in Australia and comes with pretty horrendous mobilisation costs. That's just the rig rate. On top of that you'll have key well abandoned services ( well intervention, fishing, cementing, TRS/ tubular recovery & wellheads etc etc.) Without seeing the complexity of the well designs (& how far the wells are from each other which dictates how far the rig needs to be moved each time), I wouldn't be able put a cost on a typical well abandonment.The costs quoted by Jadestone are pretty reasonable IMHO. These are small shallow water fields with just over a dozen wells so I don't believe JSE are taking on much risk with these. I think there is probably a decent amount of contingencies baked into those figures. I would personally expect it to come in less than that. For context: The large North Sea field abandonments are costing multi-billions rather than hundreds of millions.

[mount teide] 20/4/2024 16:06

MrS - No.....since I would rather they either found a partner to share the high upfront $150m-$200m development cost excluding the FPSO(circa $150m) and execution risk.......or use the cash to continue buying attractively priced, high quality, second phase O&G assets with materiel reinvestment potential in SE Asia.

[mrscruff] 20/4/2024 15:51

To be fair technology used generally deflationary and the technology in the O&G sector I believe has got better. I would think cost inflation in the sector has peeked and these costs should be added to the oil price over time as there is always a lag for this to feed through in other sectors like infrastuture (unlike retail). It takes a while for inflation to feed through.

Has anyone done the maths on the revenue and estimated profits of the Vietnam gas?

[mount teide] 20/4/2024 11:19

Chart many have been waiting for Bloomberg to publish for years - Oil Price Adjusted for inflation from 1970 - 2024.

Confirming that the oil price today in real terms would have to nearly double to reach the level it averaged for 4 years between 2011 and 2014, and would have to go up by 122% to reach its all time inflation adjusted 2008 high price.

[1ajm] 19/4/2024 11:21

AL while you're here. Thanks for the posts.

What would the costs roughly breakdown to on the CWLH abandonment costs. $102m per 16.66% roughly $650m.

Okha FPSO isnt much of an issue.

how long does the well head sealing / subsea structure take;

If costs were $500k a day it would be a 1,200 day operation after dealing with the FPSO?

What would a breakdown look like?

do they get three new Akatara processing plants with it? haha just kidding.

[fardels bear] 18/4/2024 16:23

I think they should have the hand off whoever is offering 15-20m.