Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[melfaraj] 11/1/2002 15:50

doctor bird,
hello, i can well see that farley and his 'master swing trader' has left its mark on you. farley starts his analysis of stock by applying the fib grid over the chart landscape, in the way a cartographer applies his contour lines to a map to highlight the its profile. there is a site from which you can download for free an explorer utility that allow you to embelish your webpage-lines, arrows..etc- with one set of utilities particularly related to charts which include a fib grid that can be simply added and stretched to suit. one problem, i find it rather slow and it did not work with the latest explorer 6 version although worked with the earlier versions of explorer. click the link:



i have also written a program in 'basic' to work out fib retracements on small handheld computers that use this language.

i am afraid the figure of 110p is none other than a round figure. remember they work too. this is because i believe the stock price of late and the sector as a whole has been driven by sentiment. otherwise how could anyone justify the stock price dropping over 6% on the day it anounced a like for like profit rise of 47%? and dixons fared even worse, hammered upon showing an even higher rise of profitability. but normality appears to be setting in. today i see that matalan has risen on showing a much lower increase of profitability!

[raveningwolverine] 11/1/2002 15:17

MELFARAJ
REMEMBER ME?YOU SEEM TO HAVE CHANGED YOUR TUNE A LITTLE,AFTER OUR LAST POST,WHERE I TOLD YOU TO LEARN ABOUT VALUATION..

[doctorbird] 11/1/2002 13:06

Balto,
You seem to have covered most of the things I look for. My main focus is the pattern and as is often the case with triangles the volume has been diminishing during the formation of this rising wedge with a slight pickup on the prospective breakout. A fall of 5% to about 123p should confirm the breakout. I should not short even so, because this is a strong performer and the setback is unlikely to be sufficient to merit the risk. I have traded this share but not recently and do not hold. If the current reversal were to be significant I might buy again.


Good afternoon Melfaraj, Very good of you to keep tabs on EBQ for me. You are so reliable. If as you suggest the price comes back to 110, that would be really interesting. How do you estimate that, is it a Fibonacci level?

[errol6429] 11/1/2002 09:28

good post.

[trumpet] 11/1/2002 09:23

Fantastic run or not the thing about retail is that fixed costs - staff, property are high. Falling sales rapidly eat into or completely wipe out profits - hence EBQ's very low price a year and a half ago. Two new consoles + a lot of games development this and next year may well provide quite remarkable uplift to EBQ's sales - as seen in the run-up to Christmas, with like for like sales well above previous highs. Increased sales should go straight to the bottom line. Have a look at the US rollout of Gamecube and Xbox - record breaking figures sold on release - will the UK be any different?

Games sales do well in recessionary times as well - as people spend more on home entertainment rather than going out. Problem is can the manufacturer's deliver the quantity to meet demand? (PS2 already in short supply in the UK).

[mercier et camier] 11/1/2002 08:53

EBQ has a lot further to fall. In view of the recent trading statement and what lies on the horizon EBQ should be trading at about £3. EBQ's share price is being managed. I suspect their are a number of larger retailers who want to buy EBQ and are using their brokers to drive the price down before the bidding war starts.

[ian quigley] 11/1/2002 08:36

Let the trend be your friend... and that's been largely up for the last year or so.

[melfaraj] 11/1/2002 08:35

having watched the performance of ebq in detail and over an extended period last year i am of the opinion that, as before, the stock is heading down over the short term and would consolodate at a level slightly over the 110p mark before reaching higher to the 150p level. overall expect this process to take a couple of months or more.

for those who find this difficult to stomach, remember that only about a year ago this stock was at the 50p level. it had a fantastic run over the past year.

[balto] 11/1/2002 03:26

Errol and the rest

On the above post , after BSY, I should have added:
-Now look at Ebq from 15/11/2001 till 9/01/2002; can you see the same pattern??-

Expanding further, on 7/01/02 we had a small white candle, the next day we had a big black candle which has completly and well over covered the previous white candle.
This is called "Bearish Engulfing", which again is a bearish (well, you would have guessed that already, I suppose) pattern.

All the indicators -MACD,RSI,Stochastic,Momentum,William%- are showing a negative divergence (that is when the price makes new high whereas they do not, creating a divergence) both in the daily and, exept momentum, in the weekly chart. This is bearish.
Today drop came with a downside gap. Again, bearish sign.
There is an old say in the City: buy the rumors, sell the news. The rumors have pushed the price high, two days ago the good news have come.........
To me this stock is screaming SELL ME from from every corner.
DYOR

Ps
Is there any more competent chartist than myself who could add on what I've said??
If so, can you please post your view??
Thank you.

Ps
Do not talk about long term, we are not out of the wood yet, there are a lot of Technical Analysts who predict the bear market to came back with a vengence.
www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

Happy New Year to all.
Regards.

[kiscokid] 10/1/2002 16:47

fevs - expecting a batch of X-Box's but only on pre-order initially. Apparantly Amazon have a massive pre-order list and are guaranteeing same day delivery. £299 is the price - which I guess we all know.
It looks like the games list is increasing by the week. All the big players are releasing games for the console and it would seem that there will be 100 + in the first 3 months.
Anyone know why Game never stocks GT3? A girl I work with was keen to buy a PS2 with this for her partner....ended up buying it in V-shop.
I must admit - the EBQ/Game shelves are looking extremely bare on quality titles at the moment - a sure-fire way of giving a hand-up to the opposition.

[balto] 10/1/2002 15:25

Errol

Ref post 178

I don't know.
Look at the chart of British Sky from 27/10/2000 to 01/02/2001.
That is a Wedge.
Look what happened next.
The difference is that the wedge in Sky came after a big drop, Ebq has come after a rise. I don't know how much of a difference that can be, but it is still a bearish pattern.
Get yourself that book, go to www.global-investor-books.com or phone them
01730-233880
If you order it now, you should get it by tomorrow. It cost about £40

Ps
Brokers where saying buy qxl when the price was £7.00. Look where it is now.
I'm not comparing ebq to qxl, I'm only saying don't take brokers's tips as gospel
Good luck

[errol6429] 10/1/2002 14:39

yes - I always buy longer term. EBQ represents a pretty sure-fire winner over 2002-03.

[raveningwolverine] 10/1/2002 14:20

150P ON A 12 MONTH TARGET.NOT NEXT WEEK..

[errol6429] 10/1/2002 14:19

fundamentally overvalued ? - what about all those broker statements predicting 1.50-2.00 pounds a share ? 2002-2003 is where the SERIOUS boom begins !!

[raveningwolverine] 10/1/2002 14:10

i re-iterate it is still fundamentally over valued.will drop to the 100p mark in the near future....

[fevs] 10/1/2002 14:07

Kiscokid,

any lunchtime news.

FEVS

[errol6429] 10/1/2002 14:01

please explain (a bit more) . How much lower ?

[balto] 10/1/2002 13:57

All

This has been a good stock for me, as I did buy it when it was still called Rhino and it took me out of a very big hole I had dug myself into.
Did buy it again in summer 2000 and again it took me out of another hole.

Now, I am not a professional (as I keep on digging holes and jumping head on into them, Qxl being the latest one), I've only done few courses on Technical Analysis and read few books about it, and from this it looks to me as if the chart is showing a classical WEDGE.
This is a very bearish T/A signal.
Today's fall does confirm it (well, to me it does, bear in mind I've already said I am not a professional), with the potential to go much lower.
As always, DYOR.

-Technical Analysis of the Financial Market- by John Murphy is a good book to start T/A

Good luck

Balto

[doctorbird] 10/1/2002 11:46

The price today is nosing out downside from a rising wedge with numerous touching points. Volume has been diminishing during the triangle formation but has risen noticeably the last two days. A 5% breakout would require a price decline to 123p level. I am not a holder at present.

[errol6429] 10/1/2002 11:13

Yes, yes ,yes - I know the xbox is technically better (but remember that GT3 was mad using only 35% of the ps2 theoretical power). BUT it IS much more expensive - and it will take time to build up a huge catalogue of games (like the ps2 now has).

[kiscokid] 10/1/2002 10:50

Forget the cool factor - once you see Halo you will not turn away. And Errol - a PS fan you may be - but the Xbox has much faster graphics acceleration and a bigger hard-drive.
Nothing wrong with a bit of healthy competition though.

[errol6429] 10/1/2002 09:45

Xbox will be huge - although it will also be more than 100 pounds more expensive than ps2 (and not THAT much better).

[errol6429] 10/1/2002 09:45

I'm not sure whether xbox is as 'cool' as ps2 either.

[kiscokid] 10/1/2002 09:34

X-Box is also likely to be thin on the ground when it comes out - sales in the US have been phenomenal and I am waiting for this as opposed to buying a PS2. I will check at lunchtime what the deal is for EBQ. My local store manager is a mine of company information.
Anyone want me to check any other queries?

[melfaraj] 10/1/2002 00:17

it means that in the short term there would be less purchases of ps2's and games. ultimately it would be no more than a delay;if you can't buy the ps2 today you will buy it in 2-4 weeks times, in particular since there is no equal unit in the market for the time being, that is until the ms box comes in.
such issues matters to large institutional holders holding millions of shares. to a small investor they may well be insignificant.