Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 13/12/2024 19:56

810K traded today and look like majority buys.
Highest volume since 31st Oct.

[p1nkfish] 12/12/2024 08:08

Below is a better way to do options related to share price, not EBQs ham-fisted approach.

Waters has probably walked away with many options for what appears to shareholders as failure, rewards where none were due whilst others are left to live with the clean up.

[p1nkfish] 09/12/2024 12:15

Very true, Waters was a prime example of incentives working against shreholder interests.
Let see if that changes.

[diku] 09/12/2024 09:12

Use other peoples money to run business?...but take the rewards...

[p1nkfish] 07/12/2024 15:07

The Board of Directors are all top-notch, quality, seriously useful people.
In complete contrast to the performance of the business.

However, a show of confidence for 2025 via BoD share purchases would do no harm. A few each. Would also show confidence in the new CEO and the way forward he leads the company to get this back on track.

If a BoD member isn't prepared to back the company with some of their own cash you have to ask if they are also looking to jump ship like the CEO and CFO.

[p1nkfish] 06/12/2024 21:22

2nd half revenue looks like coming in range of £39.8M - £40.2M.
FY24 looks like coming in at £77.79M - £78.07M, say £77.8M - £78.1M.

FY23 was £80.2M.
FY22 was £75.1M.

[p1nkfish] 05/12/2024 08:53

EZ, win some, lose some.
There is real opportunity in this end of global consultancy and EBQ is still unique if somewhat badly run.
I don't expect a 100% positive hit rate and never professed to achieve it.

Not sad to see Waters go and new CEO has 7% stock holding and involvement with another holder, or did, as Director.

Re-aligning incentives to stock price and off adjusted EPS will be something to look for as a positive indicator of change.

[p1nkfish] 05/12/2024 08:46

Post 898 is where I still stand for now but not clear what final revenue for 2024 will be vs Waters indication. If it comes out lower than the % indicated I can see why he handed the reins over. Not good.

Interesting to see market reaction.

Reduction in open jobs may be part of cost reduction - stop digging the hole.

Thanks SG. Dead weight debt and what did Waters ultimately achieve by running it up?

New CEO has some work on his hands to tidy up this mess and set the ship in the right direction.
Glad TU was prior to Waters jumping ship. Results published prior to Jan 31st 2025 will probably be a tall order but would also be good to clear decks as he leaves.

Not a happy state of affairs.

[eezymunny] 05/12/2024 08:27

p1nky may be the next Einstein with a magic equation.

More posts = Less Wealth

M=LW squared, perhaps.

Perhaps change to more intelligent thinking = More Wealth?

So we don´t have to read the endless stream....

[simon gordon] 05/12/2024 07:28

Morning p1nk,

Net debt forecasts from Panmure - 5/12/24:

-24: 17.1m
-25: 16.4m
-26: 12.4m

[p1nkfish] 30/11/2024 23:09

If correct, average tenure for CEO at Ebiquity is 4.8 years.

Michael Higgins (2000–2005): 5 years
David Lowden (2005–2007): 2 years
Michael Greenlees (2007–2015): 8 years
Michael Karg (2015–2020): 5 years
Nick Waters (2020–2024): 4 years 5 months

[p1nkfish] 30/11/2024 22:00

Post 861, 26th September.
"They had 26 or 28 open recs for heads but mentioned £700K set for severance. Now down to about 24 open so some roles filled."

Down to 11 open, 4 of which are maternity cover so 7 new.
Were the others filled or canceled down?

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2024 09:27

Looking over the multiples applied to digital first analytical companies you can see the need for Ebiquity to move that direction convincingly but Agency Selection is certainly needed to get close to the top Brands and help cross-sell and for diversification.

Some of the valuations on the analytics side are very high as a multiple of sales and EBITDA whilst Ebiquity languishes down at the IPSOS level.

If they can move towards the YOUGOV end with a higher tech element (higher margin), and convince the market they are heading that way, we could see a reasonable re-rate.

The good news is Ebiquity is diversified, global, and independent - a good USP.

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2024 00:00

Just looked at LinkedIn, don't use it much.
Response to Schreurs taking the role is very positive.
Less positivity towards Waters move.

Wish Waters well but overall his tenure has not be good for shareholders.
Increased debt with a good Digital Decisions buy but what looks like a poor GMP365 roll-out so far, US to show its worth and wastage on aborted acquisition in 2023 costing North of £1M.

Poor CFO choice.

When it comes to GMP365 roll-out see the interims video between 47-49 minutes. The discomfort is evident.
Not good.

[p1nkfish] 23/11/2024 23:16

Looking over old and newer notes.
EBQ need Agency Selection (more labour intensive, lower margin, hard to scale) to be able to:

1) Be one stop all round go to for top brands
2) Use to strengthen clients relationships, get closer to client marketeers
3) Use as base hook to cross sell the scalable higher margin Media Performance and Analytics areas for growth

Doesn't make sense to drop Agency Selection, was about £6.3M revenue in 2023. The higher the % of revenue that is Media Performance and Analytics the higher the likely multiple on EBITDA but Agency Selection is needed.

An Ebiquity proprietary platform emphasising Analytics/Performance can boost multiple market would be prepared to pay as margins will be higher and scalability easier.

[p1nkfish] 21/11/2024 12:48

See what happens post January 2025.

Margins and growth appear in the Digital and Analytics side.
What impact on de-emphasising the most labour intensive and lower margin areas that are lumpy and risky? Ditching low margin and associated costs will have some negative impact on being a one-stop shop but might boost overall margin and profitability.

Interesting Waters is going to agency, agency selection is probably very labour intensive, lumpy and may hold back margins. Was that his specialisation and if it's to be de-emphasised is he heading back home towards an agency?

[cerrito] 19/11/2024 22:10

samsj
PL did not change their forecast today(it eould jave been odd if they had) and revised their forecast down when the interims came out such tjat their forecast 2025 diluted rps was cut from 6.7p to 5.3p

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2024 16:32

Schreurs is also a Director of Cosimo Capital that hold another 6.44%.

He has skin in the game and will be aligned with shareholders more than Waters ever wanted to be. That 7% in his own name at age 33 can be a big boost when the share price recovers. It would be my #1 focus. Some influence over the 6.44% also.

Ruben Schreurs 7.02% voting rights
Cosimo Capital 6.44% voting rights


According to my notes Waters earned £864K for 2023 and a paltry amount of stock in his own name - good riddance.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2024 15:43

This may be a good sign that some major shareholder or two have had enough and demand change. Note the mention of the % held by the new CEO - total contrast to Waters.

That % matters and will be a difference.

Turn arounds often occur once BoD changes are forced through.

A new CEO that gets Digital is more use than one stuck in the past.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2024 15:39

Emphasis must be squarely on shareholder returns now - not empire building.
Extract maximal value from this point forward with what is a global business.

[simon gordon] 19/11/2024 15:21

Interesting! Maybe he sees EBQ as a bit of a dead end. Otherwise, if you think it will come back strongly, why move on? Presume he had some share options and a decent wage at EBQ, plus he was the top dwag. At Making Science, he's a divisional head. Looks a step down.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2024 15:16

No doubt many would disagree with me but I don't see him as having been a good CEO for EBQ shareholders.

Debt, dilution, a round trip on the share-price, GMP365 behind schedule and a CFO choice that didn't last. Buy and build yet to show through properly after 4 years. Spending other peoples money to achieve adjusted EPS that strangely enough was the incentive metric.

May have been out of his depth as frontman for a publicly listed company.

Did he over-egg the pudding for Q4 and it comes in weaker and much shifted to Q1/25? TBD.
I hope it all comes out OK but if it doesn't he probably would have been pushed so a jump in advance may be best for all. 2025 may be tricky and he knew it.



Start again with fresh blood and swift action.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2024 15:06

Nick Waters is going to 77.5M Euro market cap "Making Science".
MAKS.MC on the Madrid Exchange. Supposed to have revenue of about 225M Euro.
Mainly insider held > 50% (looks like > 65%).

Will it fly or out of the fire pan into the fire?

It's good to see CEO level people exhibit loyalty through thick and thin, especially after such a bumper income in the past, buy a few shares and fight for their company and shareholders. Alas, not everyone at that level is of that material.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2024 14:33

The BoD look useful. The right sorts with the right sort of experiences.

If only they would show some confidence in the company and would do the new CEO no harm if they bought a few.