Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[sumukong] 18/1/2002 00:13

melfaraj

I only obtained estimates from the graph I provided around Jan01 to March 01 there is an A shape as you say so the wave (1) is the up wave and wave (2) is the downwave and wave (3) starts where wave (2) ends. Sorry I should have said they are estimates may be the A shape is from Jan 01 to Feb 01, I don't have the monthly ticks on the graph I provided.

Waves A, B and C are waves in their own right and they follow wave V which haven't happen yet.

My wave order in deceding order of cycle (size)
===============================================
I,II,III,IV,V,A,B,C
(1),(2),(3),(4),(5), (a),(b),(c)
1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c
i,ii,iii,iv,v, etc..
Sorry the above probably different from what most people use.

If wave III has subwaves (1)(2) etc, wave IV will contain (a)(b)(c)
I have skipped mentioning subwaves on wave (3) and (5) of extended III wave because I wanted to show just the big picture and too much time to write.
Here is my interpretation the months are just estimates.

Subwaves on wave (3) and (4) of extended wave III
=================================================
Immediately after wave (2) which ended in Feb/March 01, we have a little bump which is wave 1 and 2 (ended about 60p) and then followed by a very long wave 3 which takes the price up to about 92p (ended in April/May) followed by a zigzag on wave 4 which takes the price down to about 85p. We then have an extended fifth wave 5 which takes us up to 118p. This point is also the end of wave (3).
Wave (4) downwards to sept 11 2001 contain wave a to 105, b back to 110 and huge wave c down to 70p (contain further subwaves (i),(ii),(iii),(iv),(v)).
This is the full Elliot wave cycle. I remember reading somewhre that when there is an extension on the fifth wave there is most likely a huge correction (our sept11 correction).

Subwaves on wave (5) of extended wave III and wave IV
=====================================================
Wave 1 starts on sept11 at 70p and ended at 115. Wave 2 showed a zigzag and ended at 106p. Wave 3 ended at about 131p and we have an extended fifth subwaves again which ended at 137p. This point is also the end of wave III the start of wave IV.
Wave IV will contain the corrective waves of a, b, c of subwaves (1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c). We have seen further subwaves of (i,ii,iii,iv,v) on the downward 'a' waves. I am expecting an upward 'b' wave (which I hoping to liquidate my position) and a huge downward 'c' wave because there is a fifth wave extension again and I expect a big correction. The correction will not be so huge because we already have a zigzag in 'a' so the formation of 'c' will be a complex flat (this is a wild guess from me.)



Hope it all makes sense. Let me know any bit doesn't make sense.

[balto] 18/1/2002 00:02

Melfaraj and Doctorbird

Can I draw your attention to Qxl's thread:

"Qxl and MSN pan-european marketing partnership"

MrGaribaldi 17 Jan '02 -09:37

press release

Qxl and MSN annouce
pan-european marketing partership

London, 17 january 2002 -Qxl riccardo Plc ('QXL') (LSE:QXL.L; Nasdaq QXLC;)
Frankfurt: QXLF) today announces that it has signed a strategic marketing partnership with MSN, Europe's number one web destination..................

Now, so far there has been no RNS regarding this.
The share is up only 7.8%.
Back in 1998 I saw a very small article in the FT regarding Rage doing a deal with Sony; went to look at the chart and the price had hardly moved (it was around 5.5 or 6). I did put some money and few days later it had double, took my profit and few days later it was at 15-16.

Everybody- watch it, this post could be a RAMP disguised as a way of thanking two guys who did something for me. DYOR.
Am I going to buy more??? No, as I am already far too exposed with this one, and had to pay a fortune in flowers and boxes of choccolate to make myself forgiven by the wife.

DYOR

[sumukong] 17/1/2002 20:47

The charts look good for tomorrow and it is a start. The candlestick pattern looks like a piercing pattern but it is not because the opening did not gap lower yesterday's close. The fact that the high is higher than the highs of 2 and 3 days ago is encouraging but today's up closed does not yet signal a reversal of the down trend.
From Elliot's wave point of view IMHO the downtrend 'a' wave has completed and the uptrend 'b' wave has started which means that it will either move up wards or retraced a little bit and then moved upwards. But the bad news is that after the 'b' wave comes the 'c' wave which moves downwards.
This 'c' wave is part of the fourth IV wave of a higher(super) cycle of wave.
Two reasons to believe that the next down trend is going to be big is that we have a fifth wave extension as I have said in my earlier posting and the second is that since the second II wave of the higher(super) cycle is a simple zigzag this fourth wave IV is going to have possibly combinations of zigzag,flats and triangles which could take it quite far down below 100 but not below 95.

I am liquidating my small position when I see the 'b' wave ending.

Any views concerning my interpretation of Elliot's wave is welcome.

[pjw956] 17/1/2002 16:46

yes, just wish I had been quicker, could have sold and bought again, but couldn`t believe what I saw, just happened to look at screen at around 2.30pm to see what was going on today...........still seems odd for the middle of the day, can hardly believe there was a shortage of stock..
wide spreads first thing , yes ......but sudden jump and wide spread at 2.30pm
anyway, calling the chartists out there, given a 5p rise today ....what of the future ?

[melfaraj] 17/1/2002 15:35

pjw956, it is not just today. i had pointed out in a posting above that i have seen 10% spread on this stock. the less liquid a stock is the wider the spreads, particularly at market opening and closing hours. some stock exhit spreads in multiples of the above.

trumpet, intraday price movements contain lots of so called 'noise'. these are short term, or very short term, price movement that may not relate to the stocks general price movement. ta can explain the general direction of the price movement in a more calculated way that the short term spikes. the abbility to filter out such noises, or even capitalise on them, is one of the factors that seperates day traders from, swing traders and position traders.
the spike that occured today caused the price to rise from 125 to 130 and down to 127, all this within a span of one minute. this phenomena is known as a squeez.

[trumpet] 17/1/2002 14:56

That's SETS for you. What's worse is that if a few tiny trades occur during these spikes it can make mincemeat of any TA you throw at a chart because it doesn't truly reflect the market volume/pricing conditions. Unusual to get this sort of thing during the day though - more often happens at the open before the trades get going.

[pjw956] 17/1/2002 14:47

bid 138, offer 130 flashed up for 15 secs, what was that all about ?
very fluid price today, anyone know why ?

[sumukong] 17/1/2002 14:18

Each to their their own method of trading. After fundamental analysis tells me what I want to know technical analysis tells me when to get in and when to get out. Sometimes I make trades base just on technical analysis. This old load of twaddle seems to make me money consistently and I am glad a large propotion of traders treat is as twaddle so there are very few competitor for the entry and exits positions I am taking.
I am only addressing those few who understand and uses it. mafaraj seems to understand a lot.
As no offence is intended non taken.
Chartism Rubbish as it happens contain close to over 1000 indicators from simple moving average to more complex stuff.
If you have been to a technical analysis course and say it is rubbish I fully respect your opnion. But if you haven't the best tip I can give you this year is to go to one it will save you hell of a lot of money not to mention make you money. Success Events is one such course many ADVFN users have attended. BTW I have no connection with Success Events except to say that I have attended its full course and it opened by eye to this Chartism Rubbish.

[melfaraj] 17/1/2002 09:18

sumukong,

i am afraid i could not follow your wave pattern above for the following reasons:

according to the theory wave, w1, is an up wave, w2 downtrending, w3 up, w4 down and w5 is up. this saw tooth formation is followed by another set of saw tooth formation, namely wa, down, wb up and finally wc down. the order of up and down wave may be reversed, thus w1 may be down and w2 up and so on.

following the above i cannot see how w1 could have started on jan01 and ended feb 01, since the shape of the graph during Jan 01 has been more like an A letter, i.e. up and down. i have a similar problem also reconcilling wave 2 and so on.

cant also understand what you mean in your last sentence 'the next upward corrective 'b' wave will start very soon followed by a downward 'c' wave of wave cycle IV.' this is because waves a,b and c are waves in their own rights and no subsets of waves 1,2,3,4 and 5. therefore wave c cannot be part of wave iv.

my statement above is not strictly correct in that the elliot pattern do form nested patterns whereby one complete wave set would contain within a whole subset of waves, but i doubt if that is what you meant.

[sumukong] 17/1/2002 00:05

Dropped quite a bit today. IMHO in the very short term it depends very crucially on today's close. If there is support today to bring it back to yesterdays close or above then there would be another upsurge. If it closes below yesterday's close then there is no more support for the share and it will go further down followed by a small correction upwards and then further down before there is further institutional support.
My interest?. I have held this share for over 3 years when they were 45p adding at 50p and have been top slicing and only holding a smalll amount to dispose off soon. I am waiting for todays close. If it is down at today's close I will sell tomorrow else will still hold for the next upsurge.
Good luck to all who hold.

[sumukong] 16/1/2002 18:10

Here is my Elliot Wave count for EBQ for what's it worth.

The cycle starts way back in April 2000 and has an extended third wave ,III.
We are now in the IV wave of the cycle. There is still a V wave to come.
The IV will not, I think go lower than 95p and the V wave not higher than 160p.

First wave I, started in April and ended in Oct 2000
Second wave II, started in Oct 2000 and ended in Dec 31 2000
Third wave III, started in 1st Jan 2001 ended in Dec 31 2001
....Third III extension
........First wave (1), started in Jan 1st 20001 ended in Feb 2001
........Second wave (2), started in Feb and ended in March 2001
........Third wave (3), started in March 2001 and ended in June 2001
........Fourth wave (4), started in June 2001 and ended in Sept 11 2001
........Fifth wave (5), started in Sept 12 2001 and ended in 31Dec 2001
... Hence end of III wave extension
Fourth IV, started in 1st Jan 2002 and we are now in it. We are about to complete the downward 'a' wave correction and the next upward corrective 'b' wave will start very soon followed by a downward 'c' wave of wave cycle IV.
That would then take us to the final upward fifth, V, wave.

>

Anyone have any suggestions as to the wave counts.

[sumukong] 16/1/2002 17:10

Well if your a director and purchased some shares you may be giving support to the shares but if you purchased shares for your wife you had better be sure that it is going do well or else you are going to have an earache whether it is your money or not.
News not so good, if it had closed 2 pence higher, todays candlestick could have turn out to be a hammer if tomorrow closes higher.
As it is tomorrow's low is important if it is above today's close the day after next is going to be upwards. If it hits at exactly 117, today's low, it is also good news because it forms a tweezer.
Any other pattern tomorrow will see further decline after tomorrow.

[brimal] 16/1/2002 16:42

for info , just noticed that one of the directors wives has just bought 33,000 shares at 121, so news can't be all doom and gloom, ..... or can it, any views

[pjw956] 16/1/2002 16:39

purchase of 30,000 shares by steinbrecher`s wife at 121 today must be an indication of something ?
surely she does not think the shares will test the 110 support level, but is prepared to dip her toes in at todays price.
or am I missing something.

[melfaraj] 16/1/2002 15:48

today the stock bounced of its 112p support. this is significant as the 112 is a fib number as well as the current 200 days moving average level and can point to a bullish outlook since the 200 day ma marks up the teritory between bullish and bearish outlook. so the stock may well take off from the 112 level.

should the stock continue its current downturn, however, then there is support at 110 and 104, as ascertainable from the charts. if the 104 level is breached,and personally i think it won't, then the next support is available at 70p, quite drastic, but please also note the other supports according to fib below.

doctorbird: the fib retracements are as follows:
112p @ 62% retracement, 104p @ 50% and 96p at 32%.

note the coincidence of chart and fib support @ 104p. this level should provide very strong support indeed and may well prove to be the support at which the stock would build up a base to launch its next come back. what also makes the 104 level support substantial is its nearness to the round figure support of 100p. the latter is simply a round figure and is not a fib figure, but still will exert influence to support the price against further deterioration if any.

what does all this amount to in terms of investing in this stock?

- an agressive strategy involve investing all or most at the 112p on the hope the stock will bounce form current levels, example the wife of the director of ebq.
- a less agressive strategy will invest partially at current levels leaving the rest of his capital to be invested on the expected rise from the 104 level and may well leave some capital for investment should the worse happen in the event that the 104 level is breached.

i would emphasise that the prices above refer to short term/medium term price movement, say 3 month horizon. the long term outlook is good irrespective.

[doctorbird] 16/1/2002 14:58

Today it is looking more than just a blip. The downside breakout is now well clear of the baseline of the rising wedge which Balto drew attention to, so now your 110p does not seem far away Melfaraj, and it was only last Friday you proposed it.

[pjw956] 16/1/2002 14:57

oh er bit of a slip eh ?
but recovered from 117....which way will it go next ?

[raveningwolverine] 16/1/2002 13:54

ALARM BELLS PEOPLE......

[raveningwolverine] 16/1/2002 13:18

if markets keep dropping,then ebq will fall with it.people who bought recently at around 100p will bank the profits.shares down 4.5p as i write.lots of sells going thru.lot of fears for retail sector if intrest rates go up.investors will properbly sit and wait.traders will have already sold,waiting to get back in at lower levels...

[sasimini] 16/1/2002 11:28

Keep on buying or Hold what you have.This will come good,just a bit volatile now.IMHO will take off around march/april with target of 180.

[opmoc] 16/1/2002 01:38

EBQ Has Done It's Stuff.

Great Buy From 23p ( No I Didn't - But I Should )

Take a Look at This Instead....



Tony

[doctorbird] 16/1/2002 01:33

The Sunday Telegraph apparently considers EBQ a sell.

[littlewillie] 15/1/2002 15:01

Rave. on balance I agree, they've had a good run, I got out early this a.m. at 127p and am moderately happy;think they have reached a good level and to wait for MAYBE an extra 20p isn't worth the downside risk. I'd rather the money was working more positively.
I thought back in Nov/early Dec that they would make £2, now don't think they will. The Xmas results didn't do anything to the price, they say it was built in, either way it didn't happen and think the next way is down.
Actually feel let down by the market after EBQ's performance.
Good luck to all who continue to hold...lw
woftm

[raveningwolverine] 15/1/2002 14:06

not done the share price any good though,did it.people who are holding ebq shares,which i presume u r,from ur smarmy remark,will hate posts that write anything againsts the shares they hold.i cant make everybody happy,im just giving my opinion....

[brimal] 15/1/2002 00:55

melfaraj thanks for the warning, this is one mistake I certainly wont be repeating, the mm s must laughing all the way to the bank