Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[trumpet] 14/1/2002 15:07

Yeah, like the purchaser of 500,000 shares a couple of minutes ago.

[raveningwolverine] 14/1/2002 14:07

MELFARAJ
the valuation principle i use is the one everyone uses.the conclusion u come to depends on the inviduals outlook for the company.i feel the shares are overvalued at these levels,others will disagree with me....

[balto] 14/1/2002 11:06

Thanks again both

110??? Hhhmmm....interesting. Thanks for this one too

[melfaraj] 14/1/2002 10:38

balto, by all means.

brimal, you have to be very careful with the spreads on this stock, indeed with any small company, in particular at opening and closing hours during which i suggest the stock should not be touched? i have seen 10% spread on ebq at market close minutes!!! even entraday the spread can vary dramatically within minutes. i've just been watching it few minutes ago. the spread changed from .8% to .4% within some 10 minutes or so!

if you are not desperate to buy/sell, a limit order may well see you filled at much more reasonable prices on this stock.

[brimal] 14/1/2002 08:56

word of warning lads, I sold ebq a bit prematurely, and bought back in at 0806, 1500 of them ,look at the ridiculous spread,( 144 )which changed a minute later. learn from your mistakes, I didnt set a limit

[doctorbird] 14/1/2002 02:24

OK with me but I only pop in and out here occasionally, not currently being a holder of EBQ. Now, if it were to drop to 110p............

[balto] 13/1/2002 20:36

Melfaraj and Doctorbird

Thank you very mutch for your post.
Much appreciated
Apologies for the delay in answering you, being posting as a lunatic on qxl bb.
-boy, what a war there-
Ehmm.........would I be pushing my luck if, when and if qxl goes above 3,
I come back here to ask you both what your thoughts will be then???
Regards

[melfaraj] 13/1/2002 18:15

raven,
perhaps you let me know what criteria for valuation you use?

[mark p] 13/1/2002 00:40

Sorry I have been mostly interested in the developers and publishers - ad hadn't realised the full details of this - not usually being too fussed about the retail side of the industry. Thought people may find it interesting - I'll get me coat...

[doctorbird] 12/1/2002 22:25

balto,
My charts are log. scale and I am particularly interested in trends and patterns using mostly closing prices, sometimes including intra day moves if they are concentrated and not extreme. There is a strong clearly identified downtrend line with QXL, at 10.75p on 28.05.01, 6.75p on 21.08.01 and 4.25p on 08.11.01. This line is also the hypotenuse of a descending triangle, which has as baseline the resistance that Melfaraj refers to, and I agree with him about the ugly prospect of a break through it. So it is a case of waiting with optimism for an upside break through the triangle hypotenuse. In either case the wait should not be long now and I should prefer to see the next move before hazarding a guess at a future target.

[melfaraj] 12/1/2002 17:12

balto,
the share is basically range bound, i.e. moving up and down within a range of prices representing the top and bottom of the range. the range is 2p support and 39 resistance. for the share to move up it has to break the 3p resistance and thereafter the subsequent resistance levels at 4,5,6 and 7p. it would appear that the latter resistance would be easier to break through than the current one of 3p.

real breakthrough will happen once the 7 p range has been breached as the next target figure would be 12p. i wouldn't wish go any further for the time being.

the bleak scenario is what happens if the current resistance level of 2p is breached into lower teritory? well, that would be ugly. i hope it would not happen, and we have been hearing some good news every now and then from this company.

[raveningwolverine] 12/1/2002 14:02

MELFARAJ
brokers come up with all sorts of pie in the sky valuations.thats why u have so many different price targets.what the future holds no one knows,we can only presume.ebq trades on a really high p/e compared to the sector.any dissappintment,and the shares are gonna tumble sharply.
im glad you replied in a polite manner,shows maturity.i will look forward to reading more of your posts.maybe we can learn from each other.....

[scripophilist] 12/1/2002 10:38

I thought this was fairly clear for some time. There was a thread a little while ago about EB US & UK.

[balto] 12/1/2002 06:57

Doctorbird and melfaraj

Can I ask you a favour, then??
Could you look at the chart of qxl and tell me what you think of it??
Thanks in advance

[trumpet] 11/1/2002 20:48

Just received this from Special Reserve. Looks like it could be handbags at dawn with PS2, Xbox and Gamecube slugging it out in the shops sooner than we thought ;-)


GAMECUBE RELEASE CONFUSION MOUNTS - NOW WHAT ARE WE TO BELIEVE?
In another baffling and frankly confusing statement, Nintendo revealed
that the UK launch of the Gamecube will take place 'just a few weeks' after
the start of February. A spokesperson stated that the Gamecube UK showcase
would be held a few weeks after the Milia games show in Cannes on February
4-8. So now what are we to think? Will the Gamecube go into direct
competition with the Xbox at the beginning of March? There are even
rumours of the UK date being announced at Milia, but only time will tell...

[melfaraj] 11/1/2002 17:44

the chart show two short term possibilities:

- restoring the uptrend channel that was broken following the recent dip on result anouncing day. this will cause the stock to immediately resume its rise again.

- at the same time note the possibility of the development of a new downtrending cannel developed over the past few days. this is a very narrow channel, but the possiblility of a downbreake through this downtrending channel should not be ruled out. such a break would see the stock loosing further ground to reach a consolidation phase before ultimately rising again. knowing this stock, the latter is a distinct possibility.

in short, expect a period of unstability during which the stock may miander testing various waters before finally reaching solid support grounds from which its eventual take off will occur.

[mark p] 11/1/2002 17:22

Hi just re-signed up to the premium bb.

Used to post as Mark P, a handle a few games-sector chaps will recognise - but that handle was lost with an old mail address on here and at the time ADVFN couldn't do anything.

I have posted as Qtz for some time on the freeBB. But since accusations have been flying ADVFN have managed to resurrect my old nickname using the same account-I've never used multiple handles on any board - I do still post as Henrick on HS - but that will also become 'Mark P' too soon with any luck - :o)

Anyway, introductions over back to EBQ.

Very interesting article on the cover of MCV Trade mag today 11/1/2002:
______
The name change of to Game group has more behind it than meets the eye - and has a great bearing on the long-term future of the group.

'Its Game vs EB...again'

The newly-named GAME Group could find that its biggest obstavle to total Euro sipremacy is none other tha the orignal US owner of the Electronics Boutique name.

Having impressed the City by announcing huge Christmas sales, what was formerly EB plc also said it would spend 6m to put GAME above the door of all its 320 UK stores and 150 euro outlets - a brand it gained by buying its onetime arch -enemy in may 1999.

The move is smart. It will allow for stramlined marketing and customer relations, and the cost of the change will easily be swollowd - still leaving a bang-on-target profit of 25m for the year to January 1st.

(THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING)

But, it is also a defence, as the EB name is set to emerge asa rval. The US company Electronics Boutique Holdsings Corp has been gradually weakening ties with the UK chan that it created by saving Future Zone seven years ago and sold its remaining shareholding in the UK firm last year.

The rival Philadelphia-based retail monster has 936 stores throughout the US, Puerto Rico, Canada, Australia , New Zealand, Kores, Denmark, Norwat, Italy, Sweden and Germany.

European moves have been slowed by having to offer [EBQ-L which is now to become] GAME first refusal on each opportunity it discovers, as per the deal signed with EB plc back in 1995, and it also cannot trade in the UK and Ireland until 2006. But the assault has clearly begun.

' We know that the US-ovned Electronics Boutique will be a competitor' admitted GAME Group;e commercial director Lisa Morgan to MCV. 'They already are in some countries. But that doesn't really bother us'.

'We will expand in the markets , and that includes another 15-20 store openings in the UK'.
______

Interesting huh? casts a different light on the workings behind the name change past simply reducing costs and merging the brand.

[errol6429] 11/1/2002 17:06

dont forget they also have massive expansion plans - around 70 new stores across europe.

[pjw956] 11/1/2002 16:58

I believe EBQ`s growth will continue. Forget the doom mongers for the momement and look at the market EBQ is in....which is still a fast growing one, set to continue with new products and also for the company expansion into new countries.
Trend is nearly always your friend and its at an incline ! not a decline.Down into the 120`s was at the lower end of a drop, the profit takers have taken their money and the market looks positive...back into 130`s again tonight.
Matalan has recovered because it has been pasted (halved in price),after their results it was its relief the company is not going down the plug hole. Dixons dropped because its a huge company with whole sectors of its market IN DECLINE, maybe albeit tempoarily.
Retail sentiment was not brilliant at the start of the week for many reasons, but as we go forward the market will be looking for solid quality and well managed businesses which look to grow in 2002.....EBQ will be in there.

[melfaraj] 11/1/2002 16:04

rave,
are you the guy who advised me to learn about valuation in the past!?

if so, i am always willing to learn. tell how would abn amro had arrived at a projected price of ebq of 200p? figures please. do you know a thing or too about cash flow discount?

before leaving i would have to advise you that short term and intraday stock price movements have on the whole very little, if any, with long term price movements.

[melfaraj] 11/1/2002 15:50

doctor bird,
hello, i can well see that farley and his 'master swing trader' has left its mark on you. farley starts his analysis of stock by applying the fib grid over the chart landscape, in the way a cartographer applies his contour lines to a map to highlight the its profile. there is a site from which you can download for free an explorer utility that allow you to embelish your webpage-lines, arrows..etc- with one set of utilities particularly related to charts which include a fib grid that can be simply added and stretched to suit. one problem, i find it rather slow and it did not work with the latest explorer 6 version although worked with the earlier versions of explorer. click the link:



i have also written a program in 'basic' to work out fib retracements on small handheld computers that use this language.

i am afraid the figure of 110p is none other than a round figure. remember they work too. this is because i believe the stock price of late and the sector as a whole has been driven by sentiment. otherwise how could anyone justify the stock price dropping over 6% on the day it anounced a like for like profit rise of 47%? and dixons fared even worse, hammered upon showing an even higher rise of profitability. but normality appears to be setting in. today i see that matalan has risen on showing a much lower increase of profitability!

[raveningwolverine] 11/1/2002 15:17

MELFARAJ
REMEMBER ME?YOU SEEM TO HAVE CHANGED YOUR TUNE A LITTLE,AFTER OUR LAST POST,WHERE I TOLD YOU TO LEARN ABOUT VALUATION..

[doctorbird] 11/1/2002 13:06

Balto,
You seem to have covered most of the things I look for. My main focus is the pattern and as is often the case with triangles the volume has been diminishing during the formation of this rising wedge with a slight pickup on the prospective breakout. A fall of 5% to about 123p should confirm the breakout. I should not short even so, because this is a strong performer and the setback is unlikely to be sufficient to merit the risk. I have traded this share but not recently and do not hold. If the current reversal were to be significant I might buy again.


Good afternoon Melfaraj, Very good of you to keep tabs on EBQ for me. You are so reliable. If as you suggest the price comes back to 110, that would be really interesting. How do you estimate that, is it a Fibonacci level?

[errol6429] 11/1/2002 09:28

good post.

[trumpet] 11/1/2002 09:23

Fantastic run or not the thing about retail is that fixed costs - staff, property are high. Falling sales rapidly eat into or completely wipe out profits - hence EBQ's very low price a year and a half ago. Two new consoles + a lot of games development this and next year may well provide quite remarkable uplift to EBQ's sales - as seen in the run-up to Christmas, with like for like sales well above previous highs. Increased sales should go straight to the bottom line. Have a look at the US rollout of Gamecube and Xbox - record breaking figures sold on release - will the UK be any different?

Games sales do well in recessionary times as well - as people spend more on home entertainment rather than going out. Problem is can the manufacturer's deliver the quantity to meet demand? (PS2 already in short supply in the UK).