Avation Share Discussion Threads

[briangeeee] 02/2/2017 19:37

c. 180k shares declared as traded this week during the price, assuming (buy+sell) via MM. So, lack of volume just suggesting inactivity, and no leakage of information. During such periods of waiting, it's normal for people to sell due to impatience. Of course the longer nothing significant is announced, the higher the odd of no significant announcement, and simply business as usual.

[catsick] 02/2/2017 15:35

Yes no updates for ages and the shares seem heavy now, I am guessing the deal is not going to happen which I guess solves the problem of what to do with the proceeds

[ragehammer] 02/2/2017 13:56

The price seems to be ebbing away with no update on progress on the ATR deal. It's now two and a half months since the last update, the AGM Statement on 15 November when they advised that the "timing for the receipt of proposals is before the end of the calendar year".

I presume that the lack of news means that a deal is still being negotiated, but the share price movement of the last few days suggests pessimism.

[russman] 30/1/2017 12:26

Being really thick.How much was this Novus mezz facility. $30m.What was the rate. 11%

[mrx001] 09/1/2017 16:56

Doesn't that depend how long one is holding them for and why?

[catsick] 08/1/2017 03:56

Having had a nice semi re-rate of the stock I thought I would take a look at the bonds again, they were trading at 90 cents earlier in the year giving a nice 10pct yield, however 1.01 was the best I could get an offer at and given they are callable next yearthat equates now to only 6.5 pct yield, I would imagine if they do sell the atr fleet then calling this bond in 2018 will make a lot of sense given it represents pretty expensive funding, to me paying this back would make more sense than a large special div , I think keeping the special div down to say 20p is probably the smartest move if this trade goes ahead ...

[carcosa] 28/12/2016 10:33

Most likely toward the end of January.

[mrx001] 28/12/2016 09:45

Would be nice to get some news on the sale of those planes!

[carcosa] 22/12/2016 10:02

Davydoo, I do most of my AVAP posting here:

[davydoo] 22/12/2016 08:31

So quiet here now.

Interesting to see the Fokkers that launched Avation are now all sold. What a journey this company has had since being given free to SKYW shareholders

[catsick] 15/11/2016 10:32

Yes, at a prem to book value and with the shares at a big discount its a bit of s no brainer, if its a financial buyer I am sure there can be some asset management done too which would be a nice side business.

[jamesjoel] 15/11/2016 07:22

Looks like they are going to recommend the sale of the turbo props by the looks of this mornings RNS

[catsick] 14/11/2016 07:44

So they have appointed an advisor, the reality is jeff will know more about the value of the atr fleet than any advisor, that leads me to believe the advisor is there to justify what jeff is thinking and that means sell, which must mean a decent price has been mooted, and shareholders will need to approve. This will leave the company with a ton of cash on the balance sheet and the logical thing would then be buy back some shares to get the price back in line with nav , and then keep building up an airbus fleet, which using the profit from the atr sale will get you up to a 1bn usd fleet which is then scale enough ....Just my 2p worth , I may be totally barking up the wrong treee

[catsick] 11/11/2016 12:13

Russman where are you , as predicted this is the proverbial lead zeppelin...... Or maybe not..,.,

[carcosa] 10/11/2016 08:59

I commented about the overdue news here:

I see it as a positive, for the time being.

I don't see AVAP giving up those ATR slots so easily. If the ATR sale happens they will need to rebuild the fleet quickly. It is feasible that they will transfer those slots to alternative production slots; at a price. I see the Iranian deal as a positive to maintain or improve aircraft market value.

[catsick] 10/11/2016 08:21

Seem very difficult to buy any of these at the mom , I have been trying to add a small amount extra to my holding but seem to be no offers on the retail platforms at all .. Looks like possibly the iranians will be buying avaps options on the atrs ? And no explanation of why the small placing was done recently , or the outcome of the expression of interest in the atr book , think we are well overdue some news ....

[carcosa] 05/11/2016 11:09

Vietjet's next aircraft - A321-211SL VN-A685 (MSN 7427) - is in production at Airbus. I would guess delivery to be around 1st week of December. Meanwhile I cannot see the final delivery - VN-687 (MSN 7454) - being delivered this year, as previously indicated by AVAP.

[russman] 01/11/2016 12:22

So Jeff could not rake up the cash for the fourth plane.Flipped it to another lessor.

[carcosa] 01/11/2016 11:14

The Vietjet sale was in the works prior to the expression of interest for the ATR fleet. As I understand it there are two further Vietjet A321's due for delivery this year although, personally, I doubt Airbus will be able to deliver the second one in time (although root cause of that might be a VietJet's door.

AVAP have indicated that a significant premium to book value for the ATR's would have to be obtained thereby providing a significant windfall for shareholders. I would be more interested to hear from them how quickly they can redeploy that cash and re-grow the fleet.

I estimate P/NTAV is about 0.6. With the A321 sale I reckon all told an EPS of 16p, giving a P/E of 5.4. Of course if the ATR fleet is sold before year end then the EPS will be outrageous but all down to exceptionals. May also offer a sniff of interest in terms of a takeover if the company is sitting on a large cash pile, a bunch of aircraft with a market value well above book value.

I do think if AVAP was listed in the US the share price would be significantly higher...

[dhlindy1] 01/11/2016 10:56

Today's RNS announcing a sale on delivery only adds fuel to the argument for a strong upside to the share price

[tromso1] 31/10/2016 12:08

Just been tipped-

[russman] 27/10/2016 12:15

It is a financial buyer who has access to cheap dollars & is attracted to the high lease yield.AVAP need dollars.Jeff is missing a trick.Sell a portfolio of ATRs but put a management contract in place.Get dollars; cream off fees.

[trytotakeiteasy] 26/10/2016 21:45

Notable share price reaction... not quite sure why a buyer would pay a large premium to book value for the fleet? Surely they could get the planes themselves new and then lease them out...in Avation's trading history sometimes it sells old planes above book and sometimes below.... so book seems a reasonably good marker of their value..

However, they are sold outside of lease usually and the may be worth more if leased to a good airline on a long-term basis....I don't think the maker of the ATR's has such a long order lead time....I think it is about 3 years...so I can't see why someone would pay a significant premium for Avation's fleet of ATR's...

Unless it is a crazy buyer like the Chinese who seem to be buying everything at the moment...