Avation Share Discussion Threads

[harrogate] 08/9/2016 12:13

All that is true but you pays your money and you take your chances - I still believe they can grow from here doing what they do in the way that they do it - accepting that the rating is lower than others but that is why we are below asset value to the extent we are

[trytotakeiteasy] 08/9/2016 11:40

harrogate - maybe but Avation has always seemed to disappoint....it really is sub scale versus the major players..a constant cycle of hyping things up through low quality brokers and then coming in under target and downgrading forecasts... looks very amateurish... yes they have grown well....but we haven't seen strong profit growth in the last few years...there always being a list of excuses... most recently it was the finance costs with the high yield bond before the cash was deployed...this should of been factored into forecasts..it is hard to shake the impression that this is a low quality, idiosyncratic trading business that deserves a low rating.. i.e. rather than a secular growth story....

The trading update a few days ago was bizzare.... there was no need to release that before the results.....it came across as an excitable statement and over the top..."profits ahead of forecasts due to a trading gain"... just typical of Avation.... over optimistic and over excitable....compare to say a company like Daejan which does only two updates a year.......

[harrogate] 08/9/2016 11:12

Can't argue with that at all - these have more than 10 bagged for me on my first lot and I am not selling - just you need patience and to relax on some of the weird things they do!!

[buffetteer] 08/9/2016 11:05

They have created $173m of net assets from a standing start in 10 years - next 10 years ???
worth supporting them IMHO.

[trytotakeiteasy] 08/9/2016 10:53

Hmm... downgrading current year numbers....this has always been the history with Avation.....this isn't to say that it isn't undervalued but they always seem to disappoint in terms of the future optimistic forecasts...great times always seem to be a year or two away!!!

[pj 1] 08/9/2016 10:47

Ive taken profit and am now out, although I fully expect to be back at some point. Good luck to holders

[harrogate] 08/9/2016 10:43

Well they do flag a downgrade in 2017 EPS from the current broker number due to lower lease yields as they have sold some older higher yielding planes and also there is some lack of clarity still on the one off gain in 2016 - which was partly due to a deferred tax credit. Also the revaluation looks a bit weird - what was the basis of this and is it sustainable or could it reverse if they sell a couple of planes this year at disappointing numbers. As always with AVAP a lot of moving parts. The call might clarify this

[catsick] 08/9/2016 10:29

Dropping like a stone hmmm is something hidden in those results we dont like ? Seem great to me ?

[davydoo] 08/9/2016 09:36

great anaology catsick, that's exactly the way I used to calculate things. fractional ownership of a fly to let portfolio is what I called it

[pj 1] 08/9/2016 09:02

Well I fully expected these Results to be a catalyst for a re-rating. But much more patience required, or a move to pastures new

[catsick] 08/9/2016 08:46

Poor mans private jet ....My way of owning a poor mans jet , 75k of avap , gives you just over 1m usd of fleet assets on these numbers , which gives you about 8 seats on the fleet breakdown they give, which gives you the equiv seats of a small gulfstream (-: , all for 120k gbp ! Or historic cost 94k

[davydoo] 08/9/2016 08:37

10 years old and all grown up, it's been a pleasure to watch since their Skywest days

[catsick] 08/9/2016 08:16

The results look nice, the revaluation result is a big bonus surprise, strong revenues baked in too, tried to add some but no offer at the mom !

[ragehammer] 08/9/2016 07:24

AVAP results look pretty strong as expected, actual EPS of 34.2c compared to 32c in the recent trading update (must have found a few pennies down the back of the sofa). The trading profit seems to have come from selling two owned aircraft onto finance leases and they've also revalued the remaining fleet by $29m including impairing one aircraft by $0.9m. The revaluation doesn't go through profit or EPS but straight to reserves. Div up marginally. As ever the run rate of aircraft delivered late in the year will be fully shown in next year's numbers so less the impact of selling mid-life aircraft revenue and profit should continue to grow. With the revaluation and profit, book value per share has increased dramatically to $3.11 per share or £2.32 so even with the recent share price increase, the discount to NAV is around 30%.

[qs99] 07/9/2016 14:07

hehe, oops, just read the heading and thought it had already happened....either way, liking the share price rise ahead of both therefore! happy to continue to hold and top up dependent on next RNS!

[ragehammer] 07/9/2016 13:39

The investor conference call is tomorrow, after the results.

[qs99] 07/9/2016 12:38

IMO investor call must have gone reasonably well given share price continued rise? views?

[catsick] 06/9/2016 11:06

Hmmmmm could russel be russman ? A disgruntled employee with a grudge against jeff ? As far as the lack of info this was just a heads up the results would be better than expected, full details on the way soon ....

[briangeeee] 05/9/2016 15:52

Thanks carcosa, hadn't notice that. The said less about him leaving than arriving!

[carcosa] 05/9/2016 09:44

Confirmation that Richard has departed Avation three weeks ago: hxxp://www.calc.com.hk/en/Newsinfo.aspx?languageType=1&id=964

"17 August 2016, Hong Kong - China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited...Russ joins CALC from Avation, where he was Global Head of Aircraft Trading."

[buffetteer] 05/9/2016 08:52

Richard is in Uk next couple of weeks at presentations so go see him maybe

[pj 1] 05/9/2016 08:38

Good point. With the amount of PI presentaions this Company does you would have hought it would be the most understood Business model on the planet (or in the skies?)

[harrogate] 05/9/2016 08:34

This is a perfect example of why the share price is where it is - lack of clarity. Surely the sale of an ATR production slot can't be $3m + which the missing piece of the jigsaw needs to be

[buffetteer] 05/9/2016 08:31

Carcosa
Sounds like you know what's going on so will look forward to your further posts .