Avation Share Discussion Threads

[carcosa] 05/9/2016 08:22

Harrogate. Good question re which aircraft have they sold and I'm waiting to find out! They did sell ATR 72(MSN 1242) back in August last year although I would have said that was a production slot. But the 'profit' on a production slot sale would equate to the level of increased indicated profit given in the trading update.

They also sold an A320 last June but it can't be that because that would have been in last years results and not this years. Am unaware of any other announcements.

Perhaps it's an F100 which they may have not announced at the time given it's a relatively small part of the business...unlikely????

[harrogate] 05/9/2016 08:08

But are they still up for sale? The additional profit is a few million - they say that is from trading planes - so when did they sell them andwhich were they.

[carcosa] 05/9/2016 08:02

Buffeteer:

If you are referring to Russell Hubbard who was appointed earlier this year then he has already left and is now working for CALC Global Leasing Ltd.

If you are referring to Sumit Vasudeva who essentially inherited the job then he has very little experience.

Given how long a number of aircraft have been up for sale then progress has been a bit pathetic.

Or am I missing someone?

[catsick] 05/9/2016 07:28

They are not really trading planes, the trading gains are really a function of where the old planes they sell are sold relative to the depreciated values, now they are depreciating faster the sales should be at better levels relative to book ?

[buffetteer] 03/9/2016 14:57

Carcosa - they did indeed employ a plane trading specialist - read the news feeds. He is clearly pulling his weight - good news since all the bad write offs and poor sales values in the past .
The worm has turned

[harrogate] 03/9/2016 10:55

What sale of the ATR production slot? Have they announced this? the upgrade in EPS is so much it can't just be that surely. Some of it I would think is the translation of the $ EPS figure into £ but it is all a bit weird.

[carcosa] 02/9/2016 16:12

'Specialist'? I think that's pushing it a bit. Anyway, is it not the sale of the ATR MSN 1243 production slot that has made the difference?

[briangeeee] 02/9/2016 16:07

They recruited a specialist used plane dealer, so good to see results in that area of the business.

[harrogate] 02/9/2016 12:54

While I agree it is not based on lease core business it must mean that they are selling these planes above book and it also gets cash in and clears the decks. Who said AVAP only announce downgrades? Oh it was me!!

[catsick] 02/9/2016 12:50

Eps of 24p , post brexit 130 ish was a bargain ....

[catsick] 02/9/2016 12:47

Haha trading statements , we wont be disappointing again !

[catsick] 02/9/2016 12:46

Sudden spike to 160 is smething up , being tipped some place ? Rusman buying in ?

[trytotakeiteasy] 02/9/2016 12:45

Nice trading statement. However, uplift in profit is due to trading gains and this isn't a recurring profit driver. Nevertheless a welcome update and I wonder how our resident doom merchant, Russman, will assess it.

[harrogate] 02/9/2016 10:07

Good stuff - shares now at one year high and you would have thought that the deals on the books will make the 2017 number solid if not a bit light - will be interesting to see some new broker numbers when the results comeout next week.

[carcosa] 02/9/2016 08:26

Two additional A321's for Vietjet announced or in actual fact the take up of a prior option plus an additional A321 for delivery prior to year end.

hTTtp://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/AVAP/12952437.html

[harrogate] 02/9/2016 07:33

There ae a number of 2nd hand ATRs for sale on the AVAP website - some of which I believe went on after the VA announcement of reduced use of ATR. So the question is both existing planes not needed and the reduced need for new planes under the ARAN agreement which I think were included in the outlook. Having said that this article suggests opportunities from the VA change of plan

hxxp://www.avation.net/files/AVAP_news_Virgin_Aus_A$1bn_revamp_lift.pdf

Flybe are taking new ATRs as well

[carcosa] 02/9/2016 05:14

Since Virgin Australia announced their capacity cut/fleet rationalisation plans they have backtracked a little at least wrt the A320's. I have seen reports for up to 4 ATR's to be removed from the fleet. It will be interesting to see how quickly Avation can relocate the aircraft with other customers if indeed there is a fleet reduction.

AVAP are due to release their results next week so perhaps it will be mentioned then or in the follow up conference call. Otherwise an opportunity during one of the forthcoming investor presentations could spark an interesting debate.

Fact of the matter is that events of this nature are normal for any leasing company and if the aircraft are as much in demand as Avation have claimed then it will be important for them to announce they have interested parties at the time its announced the aircraft are leaving the VA fleet.

[trytotakeiteasy] 01/9/2016 09:58

Harrogate - good points. Avation has always seemed to me like a "this time next year Rodney... we'll be millionaires" stock.... management over excited and often disappoints.....however profit growth should at last come through this year or next....

[harrogate] 01/9/2016 06:11

There is no doubt over the years that AVAP have disappointed on EPS a few times. At the size they are and with the planes so expensive to bring on fee wise and funding wise a few delays here and there can have a massive impact on earnings. And as you say the recent upfront bond costs were significant. I think as we grow this will continue but is part of the reason we are at the same share price level of 2 years ago.
Having said that I have seen no significant pull back in forecasts for 2017 - 30p is still the number which is a PE of under 5. The recent Viajet deals have all been done on schedule. The key unknown for me is the state of the Virgin Australia deal which I think has ground to a halt as they reduce the ATRs they want. Also we keep flagging that we have one of the best ATR order and purchase commitment books but we don't seem to be finding any customers for them. news in that area would be encouraging too.

[catsick] 01/9/2016 00:40

Agreed it is simple to make medium term projections however there are a lot things that cannot be perfectly timed, raising the bond cash , paying the fees and then not being able to deploy the cash was not entirely predictable but by now has been resolved, the real game changer long term will be driven by how well funding is done and if a tie up can be done with a lender or insurance co awash with cash at negative rates, I do believe in the medium term avap will be a bolt on to a big well funded financial co, in the interim we should compound well with a few short term hiccups

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/8/2016 23:46

One thing I have noticed about Avation is that they seem to hype up growth and profit forecasts. However, nearer the time the profit forecasts are cut back drastically due to one-off events and surprises. A while ago the forecast P/E for the year to June 2017 was about 4.5X but now it is 8.5X. Forecasts also fell back for the year to June 2016.

This doesn't smell well in my view as this should be a very simple business to make forecasts for. The high yield bond issue hit forecasts for the year to June 2016. However, the company must of known it would issue this.

My impression is that Avation is a bit of a haphazard business which is firmly at the whims of Jeff.

[catsick] 31/8/2016 12:50

The risk in this business is that when the shares compound up to 10 quid over the next 10 years a certain disgruntled former cla shareholder who deceded against rolling his holding into avap realizes all his years of spewing hatred against jeff are to no avail and in a fit of despair he hijacks a vietjet a321 and flys it into the bay of tonkin killing 250 innocent vietnamese peasants.....

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/8/2016 12:40

carcosa - the degree of financial leverage in the business is high as it is for all aircraft leasing companies. While some of this is matched by fixed leases for the same period they also have an unsecured bond issue that will need to be refinanced.

In my view, any company with this level of financial debt is high risk. The same goes for the banking sector. You can argue that aircraft leasing companies can have high levels of debt because of X,Y,Z. But essentially you are arguing that this sector is differnet and somehow more resilient but the aviation industry is cyclical.

[carcosa] 31/8/2016 11:28

tttie,

In what way do you perceive this to be a risky business? I see it as the opposite. Asset backed finance with an asset that can relatively easily relocated. A portfolio of aircraft across several customers. Fixed income stream. Operational risk down to the airlines. In fact I see very little risk overall.

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/8/2016 11:16

Russman - Doomed..we are all doomed.... the Scottish guy from Dad's Army!!!!

Agree with you that this is a risky business and corporate governance is questionable. However, it is also seems cheap and is set for strong near-term growth.

There isn't a company without downside risks. Look at British American Tobacco which has been a fantastic long-term performer but is exposed to smoking related risks.