Avation Share Discussion Threads

[russman] 15/11/2017 13:14

It appears there was a big clearout of grade B junk. Not many buyers around.Timing is everything.

[russman] 14/11/2017 12:44

Bond has been increased to 1bn usd.JP Morgan is the book runner.Wby was it really postponed.

[sharesoc] 13/11/2017 14:25

Avation present at our next Leeds seminar on the 14th November, more details here:

[russman] 10/11/2017 14:18

Jeff explained the business model to me.Secured bank.MezzanineBond.Equity.

[russman] 10/11/2017 12:09

Secured $ B grade bank debt is about 3.5%.The bond is double that.All the tax breaks are in Singapore.

[russman] 10/11/2017 10:39

It is about timing of cashflows.
The gross figures are getting big not ATRs anymore.
All spinning on a relatively small equity base.
If Jeff was counting on the cash to pay for new aircraft & repay bank debt; he may be cutting it fine.
Probably be re-arranged at any cost.

[jamesjoel] 08/11/2017 14:57

Am out something doesn't look right here could it be a red flag?

[russman] 08/11/2017 11:05

AVAP could not even raise a token bond.Gearing ratio is going through the roof even by leasing standards.Suppose more bank debt; not sure what group covenants are applicable.

[trytotakeiteasy] 08/11/2017 10:54

Not sure what to make of all this.. failed bond issue.... also the move into wide body aircraft.. previously they said they wouldn't get into that market....not exactly inspiring....

[russman] 03/11/2017 16:00

I am still here; the silent CLA minority.Jeff should consider how much of his capital is in CLA.

[gold panda] 14/10/2017 08:37

4:55
"we've been assessing hundreds of aircraft. now we're down to the last couple"

[sogoesit] 12/10/2017 06:58

Don't know much about a330 but flew in a350s, its cousin, between Hong Kong & other Far East destinations recently... it has Wifi onboard.

[catsick] 11/10/2017 07:50

Wow and an airbus 330 to go with it !

[catsick] 11/10/2017 07:44

The list on a new 777-200 er is 277 mio usd , the word is delta paid just 7.7 mio for a used one last year , I am sure the phillipine air lease covers most if not all of the purchase price over its term ....

[catsick] 11/10/2017 07:40

Interesting jeff gets his 777 , I wonder what he paid for it, these things are going cheep I am sure they got a bargain ....

[sogoesit] 11/10/2017 07:39

Into the "wide-body" market...
I'm surprised.

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/9/2017 12:01

jord10 - most debt is fixed cost and is secured against the aircraft. Profits before tax don't reflect cashflow. One of the biggest P&L charges is depreciation which is not related to cash. I would focus on the coverage of interest payments by EBITDA and cashflow. The company looks stronger from that perspective.

Although I agree that the underlying business doesn't generate strong returns. This is why the leverage the thing up with loads of debt.

[jord10] 14/9/2017 11:58

Quite like the look of this company, but is anyone concerned about the debt @ Avation?
$648m debt, profits before tax of $21.4m...

[jamesjoel] 14/9/2017 08:25

Brilliant upwards and onwards

[broadwood] 14/9/2017 07:54

Should be well received.

Avation PLC (LSE: AVAP), the commercial passenger aircraft leasing company is pleased to announce it has signed multiple long term leases with two airlines for four aircraft.
In response to an analyst question, Avation confirms that it has signed a new lease for a mid life Airbus A321 which will commence on expiry of its existing lease in mid 2018. The aircraft will transition to another European Airline for a term of 72 months at typical commercial rates for a mid life aircraft.
Furthermore in respect to the Letter of Intent for three aircraft announced on the 19 July 2017 the long term leases have now been signed. The three aircraft are currently undergoing final configuration and are scheduled to be delivered toward the end of Q4 of 2017.

[catsick] 13/9/2017 14:38

I think these guys are smart, I have met Jeff a few times in Singapore and he is very switched on and has a lot of skin in the game, I would say if he thinks that some of the twin isles are value here then I would back hjs judgement, especially if the returns are juicy, the business is basically 75percent a rental business and 25 percent trading aircraft, they have proved adept at both and can see them compounding the business for many years ....

[thewheeliedealer] 11/9/2017 23:55

Hi AdamB - one obvious explanation for a small dip in EPS would be because AVAP sold off a Handful of ATR planes recently - although I would not be surprised if they do better than the 17.8p forecast. Especially if they get a few more leases before then.

cheers, WD
@WheelieDealer

[carcosa] 11/9/2017 07:45

One of the nice things about Avation is that it is very easy to work out lease revenue of the current and announced fleet changes. Those forecasts of which you refer to are a million miles away from expectations in my opinion. If Avation manages to get a twin-aisle seat into their fleet then the lease revenue will increase substantially; will have to wait and see on that one. Also there appears to be an exceptional gain likely from the Air Berlin A320 and potential gains from the sale of ATR production slots.

Avation is not an aircraft operator; they are a leasing company. The airlines are the operator and hence take all the operational risk. As with any other leasing company they will sell the assets if they believe it is worth so doing. The 'nice' thing is that the can choose if and when to sell an aircraft; there is nothing really forcing them to sell an aircraft (although as the business grows am not so certain that statement would hold true)

Most ATR leases are a 6+6 i,e, 6 years plus an option to extend a further 6 years. Some are on 10 year leases. The A321's are on a 12 year lease, expiring 2028.

I would not be overly concerned with PE ratios for Avation. Share price, in my opinion for a leasing company, should be a reflection of NAV.

Have a look at the investor presentation material on their website for further info.

FWIW i estimate FY 2018 total revenues to be $101m without yet to be announced fleet changes.

[adamb1978] 10/9/2017 20:14

Hello

I've looked at these on and off but never bought in. I just had a look at the recent results and forecasts for another look and had a couple questions which I wondered whether people could help me with:

- the forecasts which I can see imply £66.8m and 17.8p for the year just started. This obviously implies declines at both levels, and particularly meaningful at the bottom line. I don't have the forecasts in $ so it could of course just be FX - are there any reasons why the business would contract this year and does anyone else have other forecasts (ideally in $)?

- the outlook statement in the recent results in 5 paras, most of which talks about the trading of aircraft. Do most people invest in this as an aircraft operator or a aircraft trader? The former is probably going to be more stable if they can secure long-term contracts with customers. The latter feels more risky, so would want a lower multiple, and would seem to be much more difficult for an individual investor to forecast
Thanks

Adam