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Avanti Comm. Share Chat - AVN

Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avanti Comm. LSE:AVN London Ordinary Share GB00B1VCNQ84 ORD 1P
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -7.75 -3.37% 222.00 222.00 224.50 231.75 222.00 224.50 52,831 16:28:31
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mobile Telecommunications 38.4 -51.3 -47.4 - 314.82

Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

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My mistake, I missed that.sg31
Not me. I was quoting from #1648 above.jeffian
Jeffian, can you post a link to the Cenkos note, please. I've been away for a few days and I've lost the plot.sg31
seems they have picked up another contract http://www.avantiplc.com/news-media/pressreleaseswilksey1
"Cenkos expect revenue of $120m for 2016, an increase of 50%." It would need to continue to grow at that rate. Looking at the 2014 figures, they would need revenues around $188m just to break even at the cash level (i.e. excluding depreciation cost of the sats) and interest costs are rising all the time, so somewhat higher than that now. At that rate of growth, they wouldn't be at cash breakeven until 2017/18 and not truly profitable beyond that.....by which time they've got more sats, more debt to service and more depreciation. Hmmmm.jeffian
Small background article regarding Avanti & Africa if one has an odd 5 minutes. hTTp://www.africaoutlookmag.com/news/africa-to-leapfrog-into-new-prosperityyupawiese2010
Techinvest reviewed the Hylas 4 financing in latest issue. Cenkos expect revenue of $120m for 2016, an increase of 50%. They reckon AVN are taking market share from Ku band operators. "Demand for satellite broadband is ramping up globally. Continue to buy."aishah
Is it to much to ask, that you could post in a manner that people can comprehend !.cervin1
Told this te buy Wilson, bought Pedro meself. 7 all?arlington chetwynd talbot
Chris, the start and end of day variations is awful for new investors. When I started trading I was elated and depressed by these false leaps and drops. btw Jarvis portfolio still shows us at £2.75nugacity
The problem transactions are: 16:49 - 28/08 Buy 9596 222.45p £21,345.92 16:38 - 28/08 Sell 4972 241.77p £12,021.00 16:35 - 28/08 Sell 23997 241.75p £58,012.75 Closing auction The first looks odd but presumably if somebody is prepared to buy or sell at that price that's simply the market. But it doesn't explain how within 11mins a price fluctuation of over 19p can occur when the market is closed. Personally I think its hard not to conclude that the earlier transactions are for whatever reason not a genuine reflection of the market and the last transaction reflects the underlying reality on a day when there was no news on AVN at all.chriscallen
My HL accounts all showing 241.75jeffian
Brokers are taking a long time to decide on the current price. TDW show £2.08 in my portfolio but £2.41 as the closing price - whilst Jarvis show my portfolio @ £2.75 per share. Never understood what goes on at close of trading, but this looks so extreme? (19:12) TDW have finally settled on £2.41 at last in my portfolio - roll on 2.75 !nugacity
I notice that Inmarsat are getting into Ka band through some big satellites. I think it shows just how cheap AVN is.weatherman
i noticed that ennismore had reduced below 0.5% so dont no how much there holding now so it could be them clearing out there short,,, could it be a big contract coming up,, one of these ready to make an offer facebook,,,google,,,,,,richard branson all anyone else..wilksey1
nice rise today not sure whats caused it but lets have some more please.wilksey1
10% coupon on the bond is a bit steep with interest rates where they are. We need them to start delivering. Lots of potential but they need to turn that into returns for investors.sg31
Surely its a massive vote of confidence - doing the due diligence to raise funds for AVN and then taking a stake in over 10% of the company ?gekks
Yes, of course, you are right sales are critical from the first moment capacity is available. But when it's a new technical, complicated venture my experience is that costs most often come earlier and higher and sales are lower and delayed. I an only sympathise with you and other earlier investors. The only crumb of comfort I can offer is that the target rate is now US$2000 per MHz which the say they have been achieving. I am hoping that there will be some good news in the run up to the publication of the 2015 results in about 3 weeks. I see MAST have increased their holdings (RNS today) but I'm not reading too much into this as it is presumably linked to the finalisaton of the H4 finance - still if they took shares in lieu of fees it helps with the cashflow and shows they have confidence having seen the internal forward forecasts (which we won't ever have access to).chriscallen
chris, Whatever they say now, filling capacity has always been the main task. This from a brokers note of 23 July 2010 (commissioned by Avanti themselves, so presumably with company guidance on the figures) - "Our modelling of the company’s satellites assumes first year of operation capacity utilisation of 30%, ramping up to 90% from the third year on the smaller (3,000 MegaHertz capacity) Hylas 1 satellite and from the sixth year on the expected larger Hylas 2 and 3 satellites (8,280 MHz capacity). We have assumed leasing rates of £1,500 per MHz per month across the satellites’ 15 year design lives." I bought on the back of the H1 launch and, frankly, we're still way off the pace. If they fill the sats, the figures look good but that was always so and the issue is about execution and delivery.jeffian
I think part of the problem is the past history that clouds everything. This interview for example would have been published on most companies investor relations page but in the case of AVN you'll look for it in vain. As a relatively recent investor (2+ years)I don't have the back history but I do trust the current chairman who will not want his reputation to be sullied. So the company is becoming more reticent and more fact based. So they say that the current satellites are 15 - 20% utilised and I believe them. They say that the forward Capex, including Hylas 4, is now fully in place and I believe them. The big issue is how fast they can fill up the utilisation gap. If the on-going clients are expanding at 50% p.a., which is quite modest given the growth of the African market forecast by external sources to AVN, then getting to full utilisation by 2017/18 is quite a big ask but not impossible if they lift more large clients as well. At that level I would expect turnover to be around US$450M without any contribution from Hylas 4. That beast will push turnover well over US$1Billion once fully utilised and the company will be awash with cash to finance H5, H6 etc (and not at 10% like the current fleet). The CEO is right to say that filling the capacity is now the main task. They have either got the capacity already or they have the finance in place to get it. So getting customers at $2K per MHz is the beginning, middle and end of management's focus for the next 2 or 3 years. If they succeed we as shareholders will be very adequately rewarded for our patience.chriscallen
Looks like 200p support holding, thank goodness.the wolf of wall street
I agree, they should have redoubled sales efforts 5 years ago. Anyone in this industry should be focused on sales. It's probably just a journalistic sound bite but it is annoying.sg31
redoubling is surely possible whatever level you are at? Unless you are a pyramid seller?nugacity
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