|LLBThere are 80 reactors earmarked for decommissioning in next 10 years.|
|With Copper, the commodity price has been driven by the paper metal trades longs/shorts over the last 5 years, the hedge funds had shorted it to death down from $4/lb to under $2, at which point it's unprofitable to dig any up and make any, supply drops off, the shorts close their massive positions, go long, and the brakes are off again to start another cycle..
In reality, has China's huge appetite for Copper dwindled that much..?, their economy has still been growing 5/6% instead of 7/8%.., with other emerging economies picking up their Copper needs too.., it's tight though isn't it, a couple of 000 tonnes of Copper +/- on the supply or deficit side makes all difference, and you can't just find it overnight..
At $2.75 Copper we are 2 or 3 years ahead of the new 43-101 forecast, you might see the same happen with Uranium. There are 450 nuclear reactors globally, and 60 more in construction, so there's a +14% fuel demand coming 5-10 years out..!
On ATYM we must be on or around 9.5MTPA now, I emailed C4 to ask if this milestone will be RNS'd independently or rolled up in the Q1 2017 update..
Copper $2.65+ and holding up a month in, so we're +$6M better off for it.. :o)..|
laurence llewelyn binliner
|Fascinating...someone has to be wrong...we'll see...have a good one!|
|PlasIf you look at reports from fuel assembly manufacturers such as Westinghouse etc they are not seeing a growth in demand. Currently they see no bottle neck in supply and demand.|
|Thanks wanderer. I assume you think this recent Telegraph article is wrong to the core.Excuse pun!!http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/20/uranium-the-unloved-metal-whose-price-is-poised-to-go-radioactiv/|
|I'd like to comment more on Uranium but most of what I know remains confidential. But if you took all the HEU (highly enriched uranium) in the world, it amounts to 2000 tonnes, this is 85% enriched 235, fuel rods are 5% enriched U235 mainly oxide, add to that, ore mined as a recoverable rate of 0.5% Uranium, of which only 0.72% is U235, you can now see that this 2000 tonnes equates to billions of tonnes of mined ore. Figures for LEU ( low enriched) Uranium are far more sketchy but I'd say there are 10's of thousands of tonnes stock piled at 20% enriched for commercial reactors through out the world. Take into account that some new generation EPR's may run on MOX fuels (Mixed Oxide) to reduce the Plutonium stocks from fast breeder reactors.|
|Bit more from me on Uranium.
China has committed $570 bn to build 60 new nuclear reactors.
Existing nuclear plants in the US & EU are 100% covered for uranium, but in 5 years that is expected to be down to 20%.
With many mines on care & maintenance & no new major mines being built, we have a demand supply shock on the horizon from what I have heard even though uranium could go lower in the short term.
Look forward to your further views wanderer.|
|wanderer: post 4353:
If you go to the Berkerley Energia (BKY) web site home page & listen to the 2 plus minute video with the CEO, he tells a completely different story to you about Uranium.
In fact their recent placing was massively over subscribed by quality Institutional Investors like Fidelity, Anglo Pacific, Blackrock etc. & they they have agreed 5 year forward off-takes at $40 per pound (current price $18). The industry is expecting a demand shock from 2018 forward. Their mine will be in Salamanca, Spain.
I wonder who is right?
P.S. BKT's mine is the only major Uranium mine being developed in the world today.
WH Ireland have a share price target of £1.28 (current price 47p)|
|Hi wanderer...respect that.
So genuinely, if you work in the industry, why do you think there are so many analysts talking about the uranium price "exploding" or similar?
I believe the material from old warheads has about been run through and of course I understand the new technologies and the greater efficiency coming through, because I also have a very good friend who works in Cumbria...
So what about the massive planned explosion in new generators, especially in China and India, the potential for more Japanese plants to come back on stream and, as you point imply, the need to replace worn out plants, e.g. the new Hinckley commission...
Even Trum seems to be recognising the need for this highly efficient, permanently on stream, 'green' energy source. Looks like he will overturn Obama's decision on 'mountain' storage of waste, also...
I would be very interested to hear your views, because if there is massive expansion in the offing, that is yet another 'leg' to copper demand...
And while I accept that it takes up to 15 years to bring a new plant on stream, it also takes years to develop a new mine and markets tend to discount 'future' scenarios...
Your thoughts would be very much appreciated...
|RP. Thank you for your view. As the events you mention are not that far away I shall, as I intended, let the near future events unfold and then re-assess. That is why I was looking at end of next year as a reasonable time span.
SBT. You may have highlighted a weakness in my knowledge. I was using the current MCap figure and took the percentage that the estimated annual profit represented of the MCap and assumed the Net Value of the company and the share price would increase accordingly. Crude of way off beam? Perhaps I should have used the EV figure if I knew where to find that. Any advice and alternative formula would be welcome.|
|#RP, I agree the use of Copper is only going 1 way as the western world goes ever greener, the Copper used in cars is for the motors, and wiring looms, not the batteries tho', these are typically Lead/Acid on Petrol/Diesel cars, but more modern types are Nickel/Cadmium (Nicads), Lithium Polymer (Lipo's), or Lithium/Iron (Lion's) these are the ones that get hot, overheat and set fire to themselves, as demonstrated in the 787 Dreamliner, and Samsungs genius idea to use them in their phones recently..!
Copper now $2.65 going into the weekend.., that will do nicely, and we have had a month now selling into $2.50+ Copper..|
laurence llewelyn binliner
|RP, that little bit of insight from wanderer might just save you some money. Personally I'm very wary of miners. Most are exceptionally good at throwing money down holes. ATYM excepted naturally as it's in production and not reliant on exploration.|
|RPI work in the nuclear sector|
|More copper rallies to come...
|Oh and in case anyone is wondering about the relevance of nuclear power...
The uranium curve looks similar to copper before it burst upwards...
Copper is used in nuclear plants, because of its lower corrosion properties:
Copper is very important for nuclear waste disposal because of its shielding properties:
And new plants need thousands of miles of new copper cable to get the power into and down the Grid...
And then there are electric cars....
"Copper remains the best electrical conductor available and this will be more and more important in a world where energy efficiency is a priority,” he said in Santiago. “Sales of electric vehicles, together with other drivers such as renewable energy, will provide added impetus to future copper demand.”
“Copper is the king of metals,” he said. “Just based on world ecological and environmental problems every single solution drives you to copper — solar power, wind power, electric cars, you name it.”
"Batteries in electric vehicles are likely to use 927,000 tonnes of copper a year by 2030, according to forecasts by Bloomberg New Energy Finance....a Tesla vehicle...will consume 65 kg of copper per car."
|wanderer...where do you get your information from on uranium, or is it your opinion?
I'm curious because every report I'm reading is like the one above, r this one below from which the following quote comes:
"The WNA reports that there are 440 nuclear reactors operable in 30 countries as of March 1, 2016. These reactors can generate 384 gigawatts of electricity and supply over 11% of the world's electrical requirements. As of March 1, 2016, 65 nuclear reactors are under construction in 14 countries with the principal drivers of this expansion being China (24 reactors under construction), Russia (8), India (6), the United States (5), South Korea (3) and UAE (4). Based on the most recent statistics from the WNA, there are a total of 238 reactors that are either under construction, or planned around the world, and an additional 337 reactors that are proposed, with the potential to be operating by 2030."
|How have you calculated the NAV? Do you actually mean the MCAP or EV?
|Fair points ned and your estimates are as valid as anyone else, but...
what about the P/Es that other producing miners are on? We are on a forward P/E of only 2.4 by my estimates...
I think you're right that the liquidity problem could solve itself as the price rises steadily...
Finally, while NAV is as good a metric as any, we also have the NPV calculated in the updated Resource statement, which is 291p/share for this mine alone...
Now that was done assuming a copper price for 2017 below where we are now, but also, it included AISC (all in sustaining costs) of $2.00/lb, whereas I believe AL's latest figures show this falling to $1.80.
That alone increases the NPV to 377p/share, without taking account of the copper price being ahead of the assumptions used in the Resource report...
Now the truth of the matter is that only two things will decide the share price here...
My own view, with the prospect of a stream of RNSs, starting with hitting nameplate capacity, receipt of the $8m grant, positive cashflow, Q4 operational report and later the FY 2016, is that we will be close to at least 30% higher by some time in Q1 2017 and, unless copper falls back, over 200p after the FY 2016 results and Q1 2017 are published...
In the meantime, the thought struck me...
If AL is going on record talking about buying other lead/zinc and gold mines, does that mean he is already anticipating a positive outcome in the Astor case...?
Think about it...
AIMHO as usual...|
|Sorry meant to add my reasoning behind supply/demand having the lesser effect. It is because we have few shares available to encourage large scale trading. Although rises could trigger sales of course provided more liquidity.|
|I am a relative newcomer to investing in this share and have far less experience in share dealing than most on this board. I was encouraged to invest here by another investor and can see how this is an attractive proposition.
In looking here and at other boards there is some concern about the direction the company is likely to go, what with acquiring other mines etc and the fear that long term private investors may not reap the rewards from the success of this company that they deserve, due to the involvement of the larger investors having their own Agenda.
This concerns me so I am trying to plan a time-table for myself to start selling my shares once I have achieved a certain profit level. It is difficult at this time to be too precise as there are a number of items of good news likely to occur over the next few months as have been identified by other posters.
There have been a number of estimates as to the share price level based on P/E ratios and comparisons with like companies but I am not convinced by this approach as nobody is able to forecast our share price in the future and this a crucial aspect of the whole formula. If the markets are not convinced by the future direction of the company( taking on debt,major shareholders selling their stake to Trafigura for example) then it is theoretically possible that the share price could not reach the heights the P/E ratio comparisons show.
I think I am correct in saying that the two most important influences on the share price are investor supply/ demand and company Net Asset Value. Of these two I believe the improvement in NAV is likely to have the greater effect, so on this basis I have done my own simple calculations as to where the share price might be at the end of 2017. It is this: All figures rounded. Current Mkt Cap. 166m. Profit 2017(using other peoples calculations)say 60m = increase of 36% on NAV. Current share price 140 (bid) add 36%= 190p share price On the basis that I think supply/ demand will be the lesser influence if I then add say 30% increase for this factor it gives an share price of 247p at the end of year.
I think many will find this figure well below their expectations and will find my formula too simplistic, but if anyone can spare the time I would be only too pleased to learn, as it could have a very important bearing on my time-table.|
|Little jump up soon?|
|Think I'll stick to copper for any number of reasons.
I thought tungsten as a rare metal which is almost a Chinese monopoly would be a good bet hence bought ORM and WOLFE at the same time as I was stocking up on EMED (as it then was) and both those have been disappointing (more litotes - it's my word of the month and positively rolls off the keyboard).|
|Uranium is a metal that will decline in demand, the world is in a state of decommissioning old reactors and there is a glut of nuclear fuel. New EPR reactors coming on line are vastly more efficient than the older PWR's and will use 17% less fuel per unit of electricity. Their fuel rods only contain 5% enriched uranium the remainder is made up of reprocessed fuel. Take it from me there is enough enriched uranium in the world to power these reactors for centuries.|
|Oh and I forgot to mention uranium, which is looking awfully similar to where copper was earlier this year...
And..."Trump could fuel a Gold boom", so why not a copper boom...???
In fact, we could be on the verge of the biggest metals and REM booms for almost a decade...at least...and for any company that is in or near production the leverage potential is stupendous...
In one of the articles above a respected pundit said that if silver hit $50 (currently $17), silver producer share prices could go up 20/50 times (on less than a tripling of the silver price)...why? Because ITS ALL ROFIT AND FREE CASHFLOW FROM HERE...
So a similar proportional projection for copper could easily see ATYM at £12 or more...
AIMHO as usual...
PS declaring my position, I bought into BKY this morning...a SPANISH uranium mine, potentially one of the biggest in the world...Iberia is where it's at it seems....|