Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Atalaya Mining Plc LSE:ATYM London Ordinary Share CY0106002112 ORD 7.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.50p +0.24% 213.00p 14,115 14:54:21
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
210.00p 216.00p 213.00p 212.50p 212.50p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 170.38 37.36 22.84 9.4 288.6

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Date Time Title Posts
18/6/201915:24Atalaya BB without the idiots13,340
10/4/201918:29Quarterly operational update-
20/11/201815:31Atalaya Mining (ATYM) One to Watch 1
12/10/201816:10ATALAYA MINING - Spanish Copper (ex EMED)2,474
25/8/201716:01Atalaya Mining - Debt free Spanish Copper producer37

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Atalaya Mining Daily Update: Atalaya Mining Plc is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker ATYM. The last closing price for Atalaya Mining was 212.50p.
Atalaya Mining Plc has a 4 week average price of 201p and a 12 week average price of 198p.
The 1 year high share price is 303p while the 1 year low share price is currently 187p.
There are currently 135,475,650 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 38,314 shares. The market capitalisation of Atalaya Mining Plc is £288,563,134.50.
robmcelf2: I wonder if we will get Q1 financial results on Wednesday or Thursday? Should be another strong set of results after production update noted costs were below the expected range. We will also get an update on the Riotinto upgrade which will be getting very close to completion.Once the local elections are out of the way this month then hopefully we can get approval to move forward with Touro mine (ATYM thought decision by end of Q2) which would give the share price a boost. The only remaining drag on the share price would be copper. Very frustrating that copper price hasn't leaped forward by now. Us-China spat getting in the way of what otherwise looks like the start of a structural deficit which will result in rising copper prices. Great for us as we are a geared play on copper.As usual with this share patience is a virtue. However, I still believe at some point this year we will get a significant re-rating...Not sure what happening with the up for sale but. That's gone very quiet but being taken out at this point wouldn't result in realising full shareholder value I think.
rougepierre: Good lord...thanks for that, but it doesn't make sense... If you add up all these holdings (discounting duplications), the total is 31%... The holdings of the 'major' stakeholders add up to 72.64% (without Majedie). That gives a grand total of 103.64%... However...on the ATYM website, Majedie is shown at 6.60% but on here they have only 3.17%... So...clearly Majedie has been selling (where are the Holdings RNSs!!!? Our for that matter Cobas at 4.66%!!? So probably the recent large transactions have been Majedie sales and Spanish institutional buys...but... Majedie is not in the 'major' investors total above so...what conclusions can we draw? 1 That the recent share price stagnation is largely because liquidity has pretty much dried up... 2 That one or more holders have been lending stock into the market... So what happens when this all unwinds and how might it happen...? Theoretically the 'overbought' total holdings would force the price higher, but... The lack of liquidity would mitigate that... To my mind it increases the likelihood that ATYM plans to issue new equity to part fund Toure/pay off Astor... Depending on price that is not a bad thing, provided it is accompanied by a FTSE Listing, because there is clearly large and growing institutional demand and... Newly issued equity would improve the liquidity position, helping the price to drive upwards, presumably just a copper hits and goes beyond $3/lb. Perfect storm...£3 by midsummer...I still believe in a long term target of £10 a share... (Unless Traf takes us out...but then the opposite could happen if Traf reversed its mining/trading interests into ATYM, replicating what Glencore did with Xtrata, thereby creating another metals/mining major... AIMHO as usual and I'd be delighted to hear what others think but, for the time being you might want to bookmark this post... Have a happy and holy Easter weekend one and all...
brockwl2: This share continues to confound me somewhat. I continue to be amazed at the slow share price reaction to various events, and the continual trading opportunities that are presented. Looking at the share price graph, and the news worthy events, we have recovered from the lows of 190p to 240p based on the November results, and the January operations update. Its clear from the graph that the price moved only as a result of those news events. However since then we have seen Copper move from about $2.65 to $2.93 today. That move if sustained will equate to at least a 50% increase in profits going forward, yet the share price hasn't moved, if anything its fallen very slightly, during that rise. Now I get that there should be always be a slowish reaction to copper price rises as buyers don't want to get caught buying spikes. But this has gone on for a few weeks now, and this share is very geared to copper price increases. I'm nowhere near the 33% of my portfolio I had of these at one point last year, having sold down, (as previously disclosed), and diversified across other copper plays (CAML + KAZ). However the recent falls at the back end of last year and the 190p lows tempted me to increase again, and I'm back above 10%, having even bought some again this morning. I didn't think I would be buying these again at 240p. However it seems risk/reward has moved significantly toward reward, since the recent copper price rise. If copper falls back, given the share price hasn't moved forward, I think the possible share price retrace is limited. If copper maintains the current price, then the share price will need to adjust to that at some point. So currently this seems a good low risk opportunity. I'm also quite pleased I diversified, as despite the obvious benefits, I'm realising it allows me the potential to switch portions from plays which have reacted to the copper price rise to the ones which haven't, assuming fundamentals haven't changed. Although I have yet to do it, switching some CAML at their recent high to here would have been a smart trade. I may try and exploit these sort of arbitrages more in the future. Good luck to all holders Lee
brockwl2: Eric, I too have reduced considerably recently. Not because I think there are better ops elsewhere, but more because its an opportunity to rebalance an unbalanced portfolio, and go a touch risk off, due to the copper price. I was 42% invested in Atalaya at one point, as a result of averaging down in the dark days, and the great run it has had since. I've been selling small lumps from about 170p to 255p, but was still at 35% of my portfolio. I suspect a number of PI's are in similar positions to different degrees. I could only justify holding that percentage, while Copper looked strong. When the Copper price drops significantly and the market still offers you an opportunity to get out near the top, with that sort of holding, you'd be silly not to take the opportunity. I'm now down to about 15%. Which I intend to hold for now. Other Copper miners have pulled back in line with the Copper price drop, so wanting to stay in Copper, I have moved some of the funds into other Copper miners. CAML for example, which is currently 237p from a high of 340p. As a result I've de-risked somewhat and diversified some. I prefer ATYM as an investment over all the others, but it's currently a one trick pony and you just can't hold too many, for too long of that type of company. I'm very impressed with how well the ATYM share price has held up, during this fall. There is clearly buyers, out there keen to pick this stock up regardless of the Copper price. However my worry is that once these get filled the price will drop back. If so I'll be ready to take advantage of that. Given its costs are now close to the recent Copper low and its not currently making much money, makes the share price holding up all the more remarkable. For some reason this share has lagged Copper price movements both UP and DOWN. As a result this has presented good trading opportunities in the past, and may well do again. Lee
robmcelf2: Thanks Llb. Time will tell but think Atym share price will be heading north in the coming weeks
tommyttrades: So Canna updated last week after the announcement... .I'll try and format some of the figs. later After the last note and drop in target of 270-50 they've upgraded to 260p Highlights below as in total 11 pages...OR can mail One of the lowest capital intensities in the industry The focus of this project firmly remains its impressive capital intensity. At a ~US$94m cost, ATYM plans to build the growth project at a capital intensity of just US$6100/t. That is not only below our US$7000/t forecast, but also one of the lowest capital intensities in the industry. On a cumulative basis, the total capital intensity of Riotinto should now come to just US$4600/t. Cash costs expected to drop Cash costs expected to drop 6-8% Management has also forecast operating costs to drop 6-8% post completion of the project, which we forecast in mid 2019. Under the previous 40ktpa mine plan, ATYM had forecast lower grades in later years of the mine plan resulting in an average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of USc233/lb. Under the expansion plans, ATYM management now expects the average AISC over LOM to come in closer to USc218/lb, a 6% reduction, and at no point in the revised 13-14 year LOM are costs forecast to go above USc230/lb. Target price up 4% to 260p, maintain Buy rating We continue to value ATYM using a weighted average of shorter term P/E and EV/ EBITDA based valuations (using market and sector multiples, respectively) as well as a longer term NPV valuation (cyclical multiple). On this basis, we have increased our target price on ATYM by 4% to 260p/share on a 2018 basis, reflecting an improved longer term valuation in our NPV. However, we also note that when we look at ATYM on all valuation measures we think the Riotinto growth project provides significant medium term valuation uplift by 2020. ATYM management now expects the average AISC over LOM to come in closer to USc218/lb, a 6% reduction. It is also worth noting that at no point in the revised 13-14 year LOM are costs forecast to go above the USc230/lb mark. This creates a more steady cost profile going forward due to the flexibility of the expanded operations and newer and scaled up equipment in 55ktpa phase of the project. During the recent share offering the ATYM share price receded to 163p at its low this week. We now see 58% potential upside to our revised target. With significant potential upside to our revised valuation (on a 2018 basis), we maintain our BUY rating on ATYM. However, our 2018 valuation range is now significantly wider and weighted towards our NPV, due to longer term benefits from the Riotinto expansion. Figure 8 below sets out our more consistent 2020e valuation range with Riotinto producing at +50ktpa. Figure 8: Longer term valuations project further significant uplift forecast by 2020e estimates Value Value Method Multiple p/sh Weight Weighted P/E 11.3 212 33% 71 EV/EBITDA 5.4 223 33% 74 NPV 1.0 347 33% 116 Total 261 Value Value Method Multiple p/sh Weight Weighted P/E 11.3 393 33% 131 EV/EBITDA 5.4 360 33% 120 NPV 1.0 347 33% 116 Total 367
erric: With grateful thanks to SH on iii board, who is as enthusiastic an LTH as a lot of us and posts quite a lot of interesting stuff on the other website. I have copied and pasted the entire post as I have no aspirations to become an editor. " Weekend thoughts Even though it is now over a month since we have had an RNS, another good week with the share price continuing to climb. The copper price Finishing the week at $3.12/lb the momentum has continued upwards. Many analysts and some copper producers have said that the copper price has risen too far too soon and this may be the case. There is no doubt that hedge funds and speculators have played their part but the momentum is still positive. Yesterday China’s PMI figures were positive and in about 10 days we will get the August import figures for China, if these are positive I believe the upward trend will continue. Even if the copper price is currently too high, it couldn’t have come at a better time for Atalaya. As a newly producing copper miner this increased margin means they can get some good figures released and reduce debts. Risks For the last few years, aside from the copper price, a lot of the risks were internal. Will they get permits, the mining licence, will they have sufficient funds to survive through to production, the Astor Court Case and will the company be taken over by Trafigura. Now I believe the greatest risks, apart from Astor, are mainly external, the copper price, the North Korean situation and the risk of another financial crisis. Apart from the copper price the other two would affect your portfolio whatever shares you hold. Astor This is a strange one, it creates uncertainty, is a potential drag on the share price and effectively stops dividends until it is resolved. However the company do not see it as all bad, they have an interest free loan, on which they are currently making no payments. If an appeal is allowed they could potentially end up with a better result. The good thing is we should find out this month if the appeal is to be allowed, that applies to both sides. The €8m EU grant I know this has been written off by the company but that is just for accounting purposes. The company believes it has fulfilled the conditions correctly but the Junta disputes this. Atalaya has made a claim in the Administrative Court in Spain. Apparently these claims are common in mining and Atalaya has a quite good record for winning. The downside is they take forever but don’t write this off yet as it isn’t a dead duck. If a positive result is forthcoming down the road they could pay a special dividend of 5p a share (just my idea) News to come The Half Yearly Financials should be released this week, quickly followed by a September Investor Presentation. Following the financials we should start to get updated broker notes, as far as I am aware the share price has only passed the Mirabaud target price of £1.75, all the others are still north of the current share price. Given that most of those were written months ago, in the case of Mirabaud I believe a year ago, the new respective target prices should be an improvement on the previous ones. At the end of October we will get the Q3 Operations Update, we are in a fortunate position because each of the three quarters will be progressively better in terms of financial results, the rise in the copper price has guaranteed that. The technical report for Touro should be on its way as well and obviously the Astor appeal decision. The copper demand looks strong for the future and, whilst most analysts cannot agree about where the copper price is going in the short term, most agree that a copper deficit is coming. That will support the copper price and in turn the Atalaya share price. AIMHO "
scargs: waterloo01 I don't think Orion will be thinking about selling. Orion will be delighted to see the ATYM share price going up and they will be enjoying the ride but I cannot see them selling until they have made a healthy profit. Scargs
rougepierre: Bloomberg TV have just featured a major chart showing that "inflation adjusted copper" has broken sharply up out of a downtrend dating back to 2010!!! And surprise surprise, the hook at this end looks almost identical to the hook up in the ATYM share price...
rougepierre: Hi SBT and others...please read the following carefully... I've read every one of small holding's recent posts and also gone back and re-read every detail of the Q1 Results RNS. Apart from disgracefully failing to RNS the Astor Appeal for a month after it was lodged on 25 April 2017, there are some very revealing facts in the Accounts. Collectively these lead me to the conclusion that small holding is right that no payments will be made to Astor during 2017; further that this is a clever plan by ATYM almost certainly orchestrated with Indeed, given that the Company expects the Appeal to be resolved by the end of Q3 2017, this leads me to be certain that the plan is not to create a precedent by starting payments; and 'squeezing' Astor up to and beyond the Appeal. Furthermore, if profits are being restrained until after the Appeal, then ATYM will have the potential for a Bumper Q4 profit and cashflow to announce, either to soften the final Astor blow or, if the judgement is favourable, to give a double whammy boost to the share price .. 1 SH suggests that the Inventory is being deliberately built up and that may continue for the rest of the year. I concur completely and would go further, suggesting that production is being held back, for two reasons: First, I agree with SH's suggestion that this is a means to keep profits and thereby available cashflow down, so that Astor payments are not triggered. Second, on all reasonable expectations (and especially the Board of ATYM), copper prices should be significantly higher in a year's time. If copper trends higher during 2017 then we will be selling the accumulated inventory at a higher price than now and thereby making more profit. I believe the Board took a view on what sort of profit figure was acceptable for Q1 and left the rump in inventory. Remember, the Accounting Principle is that stock is valued at "the lower of cost or net realisable value"...i.e. in this case, cost. That leaves all the profit for the future. This also may explain the puzzlement about why the AISC isn't dropping. So...Cash cost is 1.83 (which means inventory value is low) and AISC is 2.15 (although it is STILL projected to drop to $2.00/2.10 in FY 2017...) So...profit is not accounted for until Inventory is sold; but the balance of AISC (i.e. $0.32) is accounted for as incurred, i.e. right now... So that's the first part of the ATYM Plan: keep profits reasonable, but defer as much as possible by means of building up Inventory, so as not to trigger Astor. But it goes much deeper than that... just read this core element of the Judgement carefully... "the Judgment requires that, in accordance with the Master Agreement, ARM must apply any excess cash (after payment of operating expenses, sustaining capital expenditure, any senior debt service requirements and up to US$10 million (for non-Proyecto Riotinto related expenses))" So there we have the incentive to make the Sustaining Expenditure as high as is reasonable until the Appeal is decided... There are no "senior debt service requirements", BUT.... ATYM is allowed to pay "operating expenses" before the Astor payments are triggered... And guess what...small holding has quite rightly identified that there is a "Working Capital deficit", but he has missed a very much important point... Trade Payables have been built up to a very high level... Operating Costs in Q1 were 11.498 million Euros, but only 7.15 million Euros were actually paid during the Quarter, leaving an outstanding balance of 61.716 million Euros, up from 49.309 million in Q4!!!! Now we have previously assumed that ATYM was using its Trade Creditors to finance the mine and working capital, but there were net Cash INFLOWS of 8.876 million Euros during the period and the Outstanding Cash Balance at the period end was 10.011m, up from 1.135m.... summary, it looks like ATYM has, with the support of all its major shareholders who have off take agreements, deliberately kept 19.434 million Euros of stockpiled copper (up from 6.195m!!) so as to defer profit and net cashflows... With the agreement of its Trade Creditors, deliberately held back payment they could have made, so that Trade Payables could easily exceed net cashflows for the whole of 2017 and beyond, entirely at the Company's discretion... Maximised Sustaining Costs to the highest legitimate level (maybe by front end loading), to keep profits down (but not cashflow, because most are not a cashflow item) And all of the above is legal and legitimate! And if you want the final kicker...while ATYM cannot repay any formal borrowings out of spare cash (they don't have any, anyhow), they can allow a build up of Trade DEBTORS, to keep available cash down...and guess what? Trafigura owes ATYM 4.139 million Euros... And indeed there seems to be nothing that I can see preventing ATYM from allowing Traf to build up this Trade Debtor, nor indeed asking Traf to make 'agency' payments on its behalf, e.g. progress payments for the Touro project... So all in all, this looks like a VERY SMART strategy by the Board and Management of ATYM (no doubt orchestrated by Traf), with just one catch... If it is Trafigura manipulating the share price to keep it down, with a view to a Bid, the reported underperformance would hold back the growth of the share price also and, supposing Traf made their bid after the settlement of the Astor Appeal, they would be getting all the held-up, accumulated value from the build-up of Inventory and the inflation of sustaining costs, and nobody would be the wiser.... And who's on the ATYM Board? The M&A Director of Trafigura.... AIMHO as usual and all observations welcome as usual...(not on the 'conspiracy theory CuFe...we've doe that one to death...)
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