Atalaya Mining Copper Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 11/5/2023 16:44

See it's only a day so probably just schedules.

[robmcelf2] 11/5/2023 16:34

Investor meeting just pushed back a day from 18th to 19th May I believe. But still a bit unusual...

[waterloo01] 11/5/2023 16:13

Investor meet cancelled. Wonder if there is some corporate action going on behind the scenes?

[slsastin] 11/5/2023 15:30

I guess it's reaction to the spot copper just dropped into the 3.70-3.75 range.
I'm accumulating around these cyclical lows as I'm confident of both the growth roadmap and the expected increasing cash flow over the mid term.

[saracen3] 10/5/2023 06:48

Berenberg note today 480p target

● Atalaya Mining will report its Q1 results on 15 May. The company has already released its Q1 production, at 12.1st copper, which was a bit light qoq (14kt in Q4 2022) due to a mixture of less ore milled and lower grades. This was caused by rescheduling of plant maintenance activities, and Q2 production is expected to be higher. The company has already disclosed its realised price (USD4/lb), a EUR2.9m positive provisional pricing adjustment, and period-end net cash of EUR55m, so the main focus will be on EBITDA and costs. We forecast revenues of EUR89m, EBITDA of EUR24m and EPS of EUR0.09. Consensus EBITDA is EUR22m. Realised electricity prices are down 50% versus the 2022 average price, which is positive. Still, the lower volumes are likely to have had an impact on unit costs, and we forecast C1 cash costs of USD3/lb and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of USD3.19/lb. We forecast cash from operations of EUR18m, cash from investing of EUR9m and cash from financing of EUR15m.
● Not a huge amount new expected in the results: Management has already given a comprehensive overview of Atalaya’s various projects, and the management call scheduled for Thursday 18 May may provide more colour. To recap, a key near-term project is the 50MW solar project, which will cover c22% of Atalaya’s current electricity needs when fully operational. More renewable power is being considered, and we look for updates on this. On the mining front, we will look for updates on efforts to enhance the value of the recently released preliminary economic assessment for the Cerro Colorado, San Dioniso and San Antonio deposits and Proyecto Riotinto. Additionally, the E-LIX Phase 1 plant is due to be commissioned in H2 2023; this is expected to produce high-purity metal on site, and offer additional benefits from the more efficient recovery of polymetallic ores. Last, we will look for updates on the permitting process for Proyecto Masa Valverde.
● Model changes and valuation: We adjust our model for the recent Q1 release. We reiterate our Buy rating, with a GBp480 price target. The stock is trading on 0.52x NAV and 4.9x EBITDA. Copper prices have been more volatile recently, and are struggling to find direction, given weak Chinese data, but we think that with margins at the Riotinto mine set to improve with falling electricity costs, and scope for better copper prices in H2 (driven by dollar weakness and our expectation of better Chinese economic performance), we see upside in the shares, which are delivering a 7.7% FCF yield and a 4% dividend yield.

Richard Hatch
Analyst
[phone]
[e-mail]




________________________________________
Disclosures

[base7] 09/5/2023 22:55

Great news & our asset value should increase accordingly,along with our SP

[waterloo01] 09/5/2023 07:27

Added a few.

[saracen3] 08/5/2023 12:12

And thanks from me too.

[waterloo01] 08/5/2023 10:51

second that. Thanks

[jimgym] 08/5/2023 10:09

Tommy Thanks for your great input as usual.

[tommyttrades] 08/5/2023 08:35

Confirmation of above...

hxxps://www.diariodehuelva.es/articulo/area-metropolitana/junta-aprueba-gran-ampliacion-mina-riotinto-da-carpetazo-dudas-seguridad-presas/20230504095734304237.html


Article has official "boletin" (BOJA) notification..

The Junta de Andalucía grants the substantial modification of the AAU for the Riotinto mine, which extends the life of the mine until almost 2040. It closes all the questions and doubts about the safety of the waste dams and enlarges the project for Cerro Colorado

[robmcelf2] 05/5/2023 18:11

Probably be included in the release on 15th May but agree it warrants a separate RNS as secures the future for ATYM

[estienne] 02/5/2023 08:38

1st Quarter Results 15th May

[jwafc] 27/4/2023 15:35

cu @ $3.89?

[qs99] 27/4/2023 15:30

What has changed for this to be off 5%?

[ruvic] 27/4/2023 12:27

LOL this is moving in the wrong direction. At this pace, we will revisit the 2's pretty soon.

[beiber39] 27/4/2023 09:06

Hi

I have been invested here for a few years with various additions over time, nearly all making decent profit

The last few months seem to have been volatile and moving up and down by 10% to 15% over a few weeks, I know it’s a volatile market but is there other reasons it’s so up and down?

I am looking for it to break 400 and then I will be looking to cash some shares in at a good profit

I will always have some skin here but after so many years invested here I would like to take profit and move on

The current situation looks very good, we just don’t seem to be making the gains and heights I feel we should be at

Maybe a takeover in the offing?

Appreciate any comments

Thanks

[tommyttrades] 17/4/2023 17:20

Maintenance shutdown & sequencing out of the way, and brought forward from planned in April ..

SO going into Q2 and beynd we're still looking at 53/55kt PA, so higher production will help, as will those lower energy costs.

Always was going to be a lower production/ higher costs still in Q1...

Should be a good Q2 & beyond with copper prices high too..

[saracen3] 17/4/2023 07:24

Vulnerable to takeover.

[tightfist] 17/4/2023 07:16

Nice out-take from Alberto's summary this morning: ".....Finally, we continue to believe in the long-term outlook for copper, which continues to improve as major economies accelerate their investments in the energy transition and secure critical raw materials supply. In recent months, many of our peers in the mining sector have been active in pursuing copper production growth, which emphasises the scarcity value associated with high quality copper assets in mining friendly jurisdictions like Spain."

[brockwl2] 14/4/2023 09:06

Average price of Spanish electricity in April so far is 62euro per mwh.
Last April it was 191 Euro per mwh.
Every 100 euros lower is worth 37m per year to atalaya.

[rogash] 06/4/2023 08:34

Anybody any idea when we may expect some news on Touro? This then could be a game changer.