Fed's Powell Says Brexit Has Heightened Global Economic Risks
29 June 2016 - 1:50AM
Dow Jones News
Last week's vote in the U.K. to leave the European Union has
heightened risks to an already fragile global economy and prompted
the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient posture as it considers
future interest-rate moves, Fed governor Jerome Powell said.
In the aftermath of the vote, "global risks have now shifted
ever further to the downside," Mr. Powell said in remarks prepared
for delivery at an event in Chicago Tuesday. "The Brexit vote has
the potential to create new headwinds for economies around the
world, including our own."
Mr. Powell did not explicitly say how the central bank would
respond to the stunning vote, but suggested officials were in no
hurry to raise interest rates again.
"Monetary policy will remain supportive of growth, as we work
through the challenging global environment," he said. The Fed is
"closely monitoring developments" and is ready to help other
central banks through its swap lines, he said.
Mr. Powell's is the first speech from a Fed official since the
vote.
The Brexit outcome shocked markets and central bankers around
the world, many of whom had not expected U.K. voters to reject the
European Union so soundly. Markets plunged in the days following
the vote before recovering somewhat on Tuesday. Rapid currency
swings sent the dollar and the yen soaring while the British pound
fell, leading European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to
implore monetary policy officials to resist the temptation to
devalue their currencies to boost exports.
Federal Reserve officials said earlier this month they expect to
raise interest rates by a half percentage point this year, likely
in two increments. But the Brexit vote may have scrambled those
plans.
"As the global outlook evolves, it will be important to assess
the implications for the U.S. economy, and for the stance of policy
appropriate to foster continued progress," Mr. Powell said.
The Fed raised short-term interest rates to between 0.25% and
0.5% in December.
The Fed governor noted, however, that the financial system had
performed well under pressure.
"Although financial conditions have tightened since the vote,
markets have been functioning in an orderly manner," he said. "And
the U.S. financial sector is strong and resilient."
Mr. Powell said the Fed had kept interest rates low for so long
because the neutral real interest rate, which is the level that
would bring about full employment while holding inflation steady,
had dropped substantially during the crisis. Although the neutral
rate is impossible to observe, Mr. Powell said, he thought it had
fallen to about zero.
Since the federal-funds rate, after taking inflation into
account, now stands at about -1.25%, "policy is actually only
moderately stimulative," he said.
Over time, he said, the labor market would continue to improve
and inflation would rise to the Fed's 2% target, which would lift
the neutral rate. In the long term, however, Mr. Powell said he was
worried that a decline in productivity had reduced the economy's
potential growth rate.
Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 28, 2016 20:35 ET (00:35 GMT)
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