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OXB Oxford Biomedica Plc

368.00
19.50 (5.60%)
26 Jul 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxford Biomedica Plc LSE:OXB London Ordinary Share GB00BDFBVT43 ORD 50P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  19.50 5.60% 368.00 437,399 16:29:58
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
367.00 370.50 368.00 347.50 348.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Medicinal Chems,botanicl Pds 89.54M -184.16M -1.8414 -2.00 348.55M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:13 UT 16,093 368.00 GBX

Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Latest News

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Date Time Title Posts
26/7/202420:35OXB. One owner, FSH Excellent conditionwith ejector seat8,362
13/3/202411:08Where we going945
13/2/202412:39Oxford Biomedica2,118
14/9/202310:29Open-minded posters thread576
26/4/202315:56OXB - sense and sensibility479

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Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2024-07-26 15:35:13368.0016,09359,222.24UT
2024-07-26 15:29:12362.5027.25O
2024-07-26 15:29:09364.5027.29O
2024-07-26 15:28:38367.781,4905,479.92O
2024-07-26 15:26:15368.0037136.16AT

Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 26/7/2024 09:20 by Oxford Biomedica Daily Update
Oxford Biomedica Plc is listed in the Medicinal Chems,botanicl Pds sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker OXB. The last closing price for Oxford Biomedica was 348.50p.
Oxford Biomedica currently has 100,013,988 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Oxford Biomedica is £368,051,476.
Oxford Biomedica has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -2.00.
This morning OXB shares opened at 348.50p
Posted at 04/7/2024 17:33 by xoptimist
Thanks Harry. Given the strong share price performance of last 48 hours - and the signals from the technical chart this afternoon - it would seem that you may be more right than me about the timing of when OXB will hit the threshold for re-admittance to the FTSE250 (which I think we both agree is when OXB passes 590-600p per share or thereabouts). The nicest thing about this disagreement is that whether you are right or I am right we both agree that somewhere in the next 9 months a) OXB share price will be almost double what it has been for most of the past month and the highest it has been since April 2022 and b) OXB will be readmitted to the FTSE250 in the time period. If this is our only disagreement then its a very nice one to have.
Posted at 04/7/2024 14:01 by xoptimist
I think the issue of directors buying shares in the open period is an interesting and useful topic and most likely an indicator of something important and value accretive happening in the company. Of course this is speculation but its educated and intelligent speculation - and no-one is being asked to accept it as fact or to act upon it.

The proposition as HST has set out several times is simple: In the previous open period in September 2023 at least 101,000 shares were purchased by the directors a third of which were bought by the Chairman (36,130 shares). Indeed our Chairman has been regularly buying shares in the open periods and has bought almost half a million shares in the past 28 months since March 2022 at an average price per share of 647p (so he is very under water). If our Chairman and our other board members believe the forward guidance presented by management in April - a 35% CAGR with revenues hitting a quarter of a billion pounds at the end of 2026 (in 29 months) and 45-50m pounds in editda - then you would expect at least some purchases in the open period when shares could have been bought at between 250p and 300p - and which would have continued to average down the price. We should also remember than both our CEO and our CFO are contractually obligated to buy shares to a certain percentage of their salaries. And if Frank is going to have to buy these shares I am sure he would have rather bought hem at 250-300p in April than at 400p or 500p later this year. (He did make his first purchase of 20000 shares in September 2023).

So its very odd that with such positive guidance in April no director jumped in to buy and I think it is intelligent speculation that there were in a restrictive period due to a deal.

At the end of the day this - or any deals being percolated and announced - give us something to speculate about as a sort of enjoyable hobby or past time - but don't amount to much in the long term. The value/share price of our company will be driven by fundamentals and principally by management delivering step by step - milestone by milestone - on their forward guidance and hopefully doing better than forecast by bringing in lucrative deals even if we dont get to hear much about them.

We had a great, optimistic and confident update in April which marked the start of the OXB turnaround/renaissance. If the update we are expecting in the next couple of weeks and the update we will get in mid September are similarly positive the share price will continue to rise robustly. And OXB will slowly erase its post covid negative hangover and restore investor confidence as we head closer to earnings. And the company will then be able once again to be valued on industry appropriate metrics. Whilst OXB doesn't have many, if any, direct comparables a 4-5x sales (with 105m shares) will deliver a valuation of 675-830p sometime next year

And then at some point in my opinion next year when the share price goes above 600p (probably, conservatively, after the April full year results presentation) we will be readmitted to the FTSE250 and with that a bunch of institutional activity. The challenge for OXB then will be the same as it is now - how to generate a steady flow of news tidbits to keep investor interest alive in an industry which increasingly binds us to secrecy and confidentiality. Frank and Co will need to fight that battle with our clients to give us some ability to generate news and celebrate our successes.
Posted at 02/7/2024 15:39 by xoptimist
I would be very surprised if we didn't get an update from the company in the next 2-3 weeks as this was clearly flagged in the financial KPIs for this year and needs to happen before the August holidays. And I would be equally surprised if that update didn't affirm that everything was on track as per guidance and maybe put a little flesh on the bone of the multiple myeloma deal. Given OXB's history I am not surprised to see this drift lower in the share price over the past 4 weeks as in the absence of news its only natural given the share price track record for people to get nervous and sell down at least a bit - although we have been in very thin volumes traded of about 125,000 a day on average for the past four weeks. With a positive/confirmatory July trading update and good interims in September we should see 400p by Q4.
Posted at 28/6/2024 10:18 by harry s truman
OK, and now my Radio 4 thought for the day...

Today is of course the end of H1 and in September we'll get to see the interim results from close of play today.

For reasons I've done too many times now, I'm convinced that the OXB story is excellent (even if the share price isn't) and that we can get a good idea of this from circumstantial evidence like the job ads.

Today I want to do a reminder about Yarnton.

Old hands know that Yarnton was leased for the period when Harrow House was too busy and OxBox was still being planned. So a short-term lease as a stop gap and I believe (just my recollection here) and has been used as a dedicated Novartis facility since.

The Yarnton lease was always stated as being up in 2024.

The savings of simply moving that into OxBox would be large (many duplicated costs of two buildings over one).

But I think if they were winding Yarnton down this year that they would have told us by now - because winding down and moving everything to OxBox is a big job.

Not only that but at the end of the lease term Yarnton would have to be back to its original condition (so all the clean room kit out and the shell retuned to pre-lease which is not quick or cheap).

With no clue anywhere of that happening - coupled with previous OXB messages about Oxford being at capacity - I'm struggling for a better explanation than one where an abundance of work has dictated that OXB extended the lease beyond 2024.

If so then another good sign.
Posted at 28/6/2024 09:27 by harry s truman
super,

It's all fine and I have enough sworn adversaries on here without the need to look for any more ;)

Ironically it was the funds which inadvertently screwed us last year. Maybe you remember and maybe you don't but we were ticking along nicely with a share price which was remarkably close to a CDMO average of 5.5x sales (reduced sales after our bump) when suddenly there was a lot of traffic on here (and particularly badger's thread) that the end was nigh and we were going bust.

A lot of selling followed but it was later explained by someone with far more knowledge on this than me that there was a US fund which couldn't hold stocks of less than a certain market cap (their fund rules) and the boys in the shiny suits had worked that out.

This fund was forced into selling their OXB stake from August onwards and look at the positions taken in advance of that

So money was made out of someone else's misfortune and as usual small investors had no idea what was going on at the time.

Even worse, the rumour at the time (I can't confirm) was that the shorting against the forced seller dropped the price so much that a second fund had to sell and the shorters got 2 bites of the same cherry. Good for them but not for us.

As soon as that ended then the doom posts on here and badger's thread stopped and haven't returned, but of course that will just be a coincidence.

Along the way big funds like Liontrust were having record redemptions and having to sell across their portfolios. None of it helped.

The final straw seemed to be OXB booted from a MS index which I'd never heard of because of market cap, but since then the posts of doom have been non-existent and of course we're still waiting for the actual bad news (from anybody) about OXB itself - rather than the misfortune of its large shareholders.

All of this time though, Blackrock seem to have been hoovering up the shares which were available to those with patience and deep pockets (3.47m shares added to their existing holding according to the FT).

One difference I have noticed with the funds is that whilst the most we ever get from them is the mandatory holding RNS, with Novo, Serum and recently IM, we actually get more of the story e.g.
Posted at 27/6/2024 18:39 by harry s truman
I agree with you there Ygor, but would just add that a lot of the investment managers can't buy smallcap and so will have to wait anyway.

Sliding off sideways into another passage from the memoires here, whilst I've always had both hopes and expectations for OXB (so two different targets), those have changed as OXB has changed - and over the last couple of decades OXB has changed a lot.

Had TroVax succeeded in its PIII trial then it would have retired quite a few of us from that time very early. It didn't, but if there wasn't the risk of this then there wouldn't be the reward either.

The 20 year older me likes the idea of helping with 50+ customer programmes much more than the 20 year younger me wondering how the patients are doing on one of our own in house trials on which everything hinged. Yes the ultimate reward will be less than it could have been but so is the risk (now spread across 50+ programmes).

So I sit here quite happy knowing how much capacity we have in France, America and the UK, safe in the knowledge that Seb's sales team is possessed with the goal of filling it all.

I have a mindset of holding shares forever. Obviously a sweeping statement there, but I do tend to hold all my shares for a very long time if I think the company is sound. A trailing stop loss when the world panicked at the end of the AZ vaccine contract would have been a much better strategy with hindsight, but I never imagined OXB would drop lower than the pre-covid price when they were sat on a massive covid cash windfall. We live and learn.

I still hope to hold OXB as a very profitable market leader one day, but after reading the Novo boss explain that he's going to use his weight loss drug billions to buy up speciality service providers to the pharmaceutical sector, and remembering that he already owns 12% of OXB, I'm sort of resigned to the fact that one day in the not too distant future OXB will be a Novo company.

If that happens then so be it and it saves me a decision which I would take far too long over.

Novo are awash with money (their profit was $3.65bn last year and they are forecasting +20 to 30% on that this year).

As far as I know Serum are the major shareholder in at the highest price (3% at just under £15 per share) so I guess an offer which they are happy with would have all the other major holders agreeing too?

This all leads me to think that somewhere in our not too distant future there is a combination of revenue forecast and buyout multiple (of that), where Serum thinks it's enough and it also doesn't look like Novo is paying too much. What that figure would be (or when) I've no idea, but I don't expect Serum to take a loss on their shares.
Posted at 18/6/2024 10:22 by harry s truman
This isn't the news which would have the insiders embargoed as it was all public.

OXB didn't need the money as they turned the year with cash of £103.7 million, told us that there was very little capex planned and that we would be broadly breakeven on operations this year. QED no immediate need for cash.

The timing of this was down to OXB not IM.

OXB would still get the same amount of money from IM whether they issued more or less shares than today in September as it's a contractual clause which IM were tied into for a fixed amount of cash in exchange for a variable amount of new shares.

My take on this (caution the glass half full here) is that the timing when OXB don't need the cash is a thankyou to IM with an eye to what is comming.

IM sold us ABL for an unbelievably low multiple of sales and then also put in 10m Euro in cash to fund the transition of ABL to exactly what OXB needed.

If OXB have now looked at what might happen in the next quarter and decided it's right to let ABL have the shares at the average today, then I'm fine with that and see it as fair given what they did for us.

Those of us who have been here for a while might remember when we ended up borrowing from a very sharp outfit who on top of onerous loan terms also wanted their share of the company for free (wasn't it 4%?) as a signing on tribute. After the loan term ended they then sold those free shares down against us as a thank you. This RNS today is a much fairer and more acceptable arrangement.
Posted at 18/6/2024 08:18 by cousinit
The market doesn't like uncertainty, and in picky markets even relatively minor uncertainty could be used as a stick to beat the share price with...

As the price for IM was the 6m VWAP price, the volume over the recent results would still be a chunky weighting. If the share price moved higher in the coming months it would need volume as well to pull the calculated price materially higher.
Posted at 18/6/2024 08:01 by marwalker
So at OXB discretion till September?Which way do you want to play itOXB thinks that it is unlikely there will be much better share price in that period so go now. OrOXB thinks the share price will be much higher and wants a good deal for IM ?
Posted at 25/5/2024 11:51 by harry s truman
I think both can be true. I'm sure you are correct about part of the current situation, but we know from news stories that last year that there were record withdrawals from funds / unit trusts / whatever, and that the likes of Liontrust (big holder in OXB of course) were periodically selling a small percentage of every holding to cover those redemptions. Have those withdrawals stopped completely now or just slowed? Is it still happening but being absorbed much better by current renewed interest in OXB?

On a very small sample size I think your argument about short term profit taking is probably carried simply by some of the names frequently posting here (and then not posting here).

On the other hand, I've watched OXB for many years now and I'm pretty convinced that they have something significant and currently unknown to us on the go (unless malaria is a lucky guess).

There are too many little clues - no insiders buying after the results - no press stories from OXB to the papers following the results - the number of production staff we are recruiting - this director role with the spend which doesn't match our current business - and so on.

You could argue that it's simply organic and the proof of what Seb previously told us - i.e. 2 serious enquiries per week and a win rate which is getting us a lot of work. But after explaining that to us (and the market) more of the same wouldn't stop the insiders buying in that little open period which normally follows the half yearly financial statement.

Unfortunately these days (and this is not a complaint) the success of OXB (which I realise you would never guess by the share price) means it's increasingly difficult to keep track. I'm sure you know what I mean, but 6 customers at the end of 2017 vs 35 last month - when most of them are now confidential? It's a different kettle of fish.

There are a few things we know. We know the US government is about to sanction WuXi and we know that OXB has received enquiries from people looking for a contingency.

We know we have a deal with Serum to provide capacity to make a lot of something for a decade. We just don't know what it is. Malaria vaccine seems a good fit.

We know there is a commercial production deal for myeloma CAR-T in the works, because they told us recently - but the partner isn't obvious.

Would any of those double the spend of our purchasing team? Maybe not individually, but combined then very possibly.

Or it could be something completely different...
Oxford Biomedica share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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