Oxford Biomedica Plc

6.50 (1.41%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxford Biomedica Plc LSE:OXB London Ordinary Share GB00BDFBVT43 ORD 50P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  6.50 1.41% 469.00 51,466 16:35:03
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
465.00 469.00 468.50 459.00 462.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Medicinal Chems,botanicl Pds 139.99 -45.16 -46.90 - 451.47
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:54:07 O 276 469.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
06/6/202314:10OXB. One owner, FSH Excellent conditionwith ejector seat5,160
17/5/202311:54Where we going413
26/4/202315:56OXB - sense and sensibility479
26/4/202312:17Oxford Biomedica2,102
22/9/202218:38Open-minded posters thread571

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Posted at 05/6/2023 14:06 by harry s truman

I watched the videos and were I looking for a Robert Robinson type character to adjudicate the latest thread round of call my bluff (appreciate that ages me a bit) then I wouldn’t pick doc as adjudicator, as it would be a bit like having the partisan Bercow as speaker of the house of commons.

Surely Plutonian would best suit that honorary comb-over? (Something else long out of fashion these days).

So what is a plasmid and how does it relate to viral vector manufacture? I think it’s probably best to put that question into the file marked pending, before sealing it for 75 years in the same vault as Pfizer trial data.

Let’s dwell on what we do know. We know that the purchase of 80% of the manufacturing arm of Homology went down like a lead balloon with the market, whilst simultaneously our major shareholders (on better information no doubt) all gave a quiet nod.

As new contracts came in for that facility, (4 new last year, meaning 5 with existing Homology work) the “sold a pup” and “bad deal” comments thinned out a lot here. Stuart acknowledged the better than expected contribution from Boston in our last figures.

Since the latest webcasts where we were told that our new “confidential” contracts are anonymous because they are mostly people who haven’t told their current supplier / partner that they are leaving yet, then the comments here about the obvious flaws in the Homology purchase have basically disappeared.

We don’t know, and will probably never be told, but it seems very likely that our 4 new confidential contracts at OXB Solutions have come straight from the likes of the currently publicly self-destructing Catalent. If so then that’s tough for Catalent but more power to the arm of OXB.

When OXB Solutions was created, OXB told us that one of the reasons they picked Homology was not only the time advantage (ready now “plug and play”) but also that their AAV tech was industry leading at that time. Then adding that they were going to make it better with the trip / trap / U1 / U2 type technology we already have which has made LentiVector an industry leader, as some of this tech is multi-platform and so equally applicable to AAV.

It’s no use asking me to explain when, how or why, as I know as much about this as I do about plasmids. I’m only really interested in whether it works or not.

However, I do remember them saying that the latest generation AAV (which might be called pOXB) is an order of magnitude greater than the industry norm, but the latest one they presented a fortnight ago is much, much more than that.

So industry standard for number of TU’s (transduction units – meaning individual perfect viral vectors containing the required genetic material) out of a litre of special brew is 10 to the power 14. OXB Solution’s current tech (which I think I’m correct in calling pOXB) is 10 to the power 15, but their next generation presented last month was 10 to the power 17 transduction units.

If I have understood that correctly (always a risk), then we can already provide 10X the yield which others are offering before failing to meet their promises.

We can already do 10X, but the possibility is there to soon offer 1,000x ???
Think about that one with regard to delivery lead-time, cost and profit?

When our competitors are struggling to do 10 to the 14 on time, we offer 10 to the 15 and 10 to the 17 is in progress?

The potential here is pretty much boundless – and I’m guessing (just guessing again) that a bit like when we licenced LentiStable to Orchard, the patented tech which enables this purification and yield advantage will be up for licence to the likes of Lonza – and how could they say no?

Or maybe that finally is the Victor Kiam moment?

OXB have an excellent service here to offer on both sides of the Atlantic.

They have unmatched tech with amazing prospects and they have future capacity (the fallow half in both OxBox and Patriot’s Park) for growth.

Is this not a perfect example of “if you build it then they will come”?

Will this also be posted out of context on twitter by a Scottish Nationalist?

All questions I don't know the answers to but time will tell.

Posted at 24/5/2023 12:02 by harry s truman
It would be very welcome news Plutonian, but I have a feeling that one isn't the expected news which stopped any of the senior staff buying.

Obviously that is purely subjective and based upon a series of stacking guesses, but I think a CDMO of any size could be reasonably expected to always be working on or towards a deal of this type. Consequently I don't think a likelihood of that in the next month (we are basically a month since the results tomorrow) would embargo the senior staff from buying immediately after Stuart's annual state of the company address and roundup.

Similarly I don't think a sniff of a manufacturing deal like that for a very rare disease would have triggered quarter of a million shares traded yesterday.

It will be interesting to find out what they have been up to and I suspect we are not long from the big reveal.

The circumstantial evidence here from the LentiVector side of the business is that there isn't currently an overwhelming global demand (which would likely have been a major factor in our decision to move into AAV at some large financial cost).

I can remember long ago OXB saying how few people there were in the LV market, and that for people who owned vector I.P., were willing to customise it and could manufacture in house, then for a while that was basically just us. Maybe it still is?

OXB said for a good while that their long term goal was to secure 25% of the LV supply market, but it is a much smaller market than AAV (where a much smaller fraction of the AAV market would be a lot more business).

During the pandemic they were able to dedicate 3 suites from OxBox in making an AV product for AZ, whilst still continuing to support existing customers with that other suite in OxBox, the Yarnton facility and the single suite at Harrow House.

The lack of urgency OXB have shown in finishing the final suites in OxBox (which they have money on hand to fund) suggests to me that the market demand for LV just isn't there yet and that OXB won't spend that money until the forward demand is obvious (for any vector).

If I understood a previous webcast correctly, then one of the reasons for taking the OxBox site was that it would enable OXB to ditch a load of duplicated costs and not renew the Yarnton lease when that comes due. Presumably that is still the plan and the completed first phase of OxBox can more than accommodate that as is.

From things I have read over the years, then I always had it in mind that contract manufacturing for LV in our markets would be something like Lonza, Thermo Fischer, Catelant and OXB, in that kind of order. Catelant currently seem to be destroying themselves from within, so perhaps OXB's long term aim of 25% of that market could become a reality?

Posted at 14/5/2023 20:53 by harry s truman
Sound common sense there Tim.

I would add a couple of points which are all common knowledge, namely:-

1) we were £10 per share in 2018 on the back of CAR-T, long before we knew the world was going to change for a coronavirus, and

2) OXB is a much bigger company these days with significantly more revenue.

The recent death spiral, again as we all know, wasn't helped by a combination of a big spend in Boston and a headline in The Times which said words to the effect of OXB loses major AZ contract and needs to fill the gap.

Our best ever year with full AZ production on 3 bioreactors was £143m revenue in 2021.

As we learned last month, 2022 was £140m revenue including the last £30m of the AZ contract. So the real figure was £110m? It's really not as bad as it was painted is it? And in the ever growing company which OXB is these days, then I'm confident that they will soon fill the remainder of that gap which The Times was so worried about last year.

Unfortunately a large fraction of the mood on this BB has been somewhere between disillusioned and derogatory for a while now, which is sad to see in people who were previously keen shareholders, but it's also understandable. There has been a beating here, and OXB (and their shareholders) were on the receiving end.

As you will have worked out already, since the results presentation I genuinely am expecting this breakthrough news that you hope for - and I'm expecting it very soon.

I did for a good while think that our next big something would be with Serum because of the memorandum of understanding about using one of our bioreactors long term. When that MoU became an agreement which they mentioned in the results (again great news) they also added that it was for a 2,000 litre bioreactor.

I'm pretty certain that our biggest are currently the three 1,000 litre bioreactors which we used on the AZ work, and so I don't see how our next news could be Serum. I think that is now maybe even something to be thought about as for next year.

So the clues in the presentation seemed to point to news expected from BMS.

BMS seem very pleased with us. They put some work our way (remember they already had someone else doing this type of work for them) and after seeing what we did for them on two of their experimental drugs they expanded that to six.

There have been press stories (some posted on here by Marcus and others) about BMS experiencing problems / bottlenecks with supply for their approved / commercial CAR-T drugs.

Last year I found some public documents (and posted on here to minimal interest) which to me read like BMS were requesting permission from EMA (the European regulator) to use an alternate vector / alternate vector supplier for one of their approved drugs. I couldn't be certain because this isn't my area of expertise but that was my best interpretation.

In the webcast last month Stuart told us they are expecting to hear from BMS soon. He didn't say about what. So yes I am in pin the tail on the donkey mode here.

What we do know is that in what is their only real open period of the year (just after the kitchen sink of the results) none of our senior staff bought shares.

The results were good and the share price is at a low. I'm pretty convinced that there would have been insider buying were they free to do so. So for none of them to to even fill an ISA there must have been something preventing that, which means they know something which is price sensitive.

To my mind that proves that something is expected to break very soon, and based upon the only other clue we have (Stuart mentioning hearing from BMS) then I'm guessing the likelihood is that it's with them and relates to something which they have a current supply issue with. That would be very big for us.

But that is just my guess and it could easily be with someone else. Whoever it is then I think it's a big deal, because if it was small and very early stage (no financial terms disclosed) then I don't think that would have stopped them buying.

We will see - and likely very soon.

Posted at 14/5/2023 19:31 by timax333
Let's move on. false covid share price boost was not a true reflection on oxb core business and research goals ....it was a painful distraction....let not dwell on false high share prices...it will take a while to get over this.....need a breakthrough ...some positive news ...a possible collaboration with one of the big boys Keep the faith x
Posted at 03/5/2023 15:57 by harry s truman

I'm afraid that there is no prize for spotting that something didn't happen. Should they ever reinstigate the Royal Observer Corps though ;)

There is something very odd in the market today. Maybe there will be some huge delayed trades reported after close, but so far today the price has dropped on very low reported volume.

I appreciate that huge sums were made last year selling OXB on the back of the AZ contract ending and unfounded rumours about Boston, but I can't believe that anyone is selling OXB short at the moment when hints were dropped in the webcast last Tuesday and none of the insiders bought following those results (very unusual for us).

This led me to believe that there isn't a short seller, but there may be a forced seller.

Earlier this morning when the price was dropping (423 at the time I think) I logged into my broker account and looked at the real time price, unfortunately I couldn't tell you for certain exactly what that was now, but I put a small trade in and was quoted 445p to buy.

I always understood that for a trade size within the NMS then you got either the bid / offer price or better.

On ADVFN right now it says that the high / low for the day is 436.5p and 414.5p, yet there are a line of trades this morning all around the 450p mark before the ALGOs arrive.

We'll just have to add this to the long list of things which I don't understand, but I suspect there are some shenanigans going on today.

As for the deal I'm expecting, then I think OXB would be expecting it within the month else we would have seen some buying, but as we know from long experience here - OXB can only get the signing pen out when the other side is ready to blow the dust off theirs.

A wise man on here once pointed out that OXB do seem to like Thursdays as announcement days. Maybe tomorrow then?

Posted at 01/5/2023 14:20 by harry s truman
I’m going to rehash the old shovels in the gold rush analogy here Marcus, but we spent quite a lot of our own money and even more from Sanofi on our eye drug venture and it came to nothing even though the 3 drugs which they trialled (I don’t think they ever got around to EncorStat) all seemed to work well enough to continue.

Nobody has been a bigger fan of our in-house prospects than me, but the fact remains that our biggest earner (and our only commercial earners over the last decade) has been making bulk quantities for Novartis CAR-T support and contract drug production for AZ.

Last year OXB bought a shovel factory in Boston and so far it is ahead of expectations. Long may that continue.

I’d just like to add to my current pet theory of last week, in that no directors (or close family) buying shares since the results last Tuesday, means that they can’t because something is about to drop. If it was an undisclosed partner with no commercial terms (i.e. very early work for single figure millions revenue, meaning modest profit) then that doesn’t seem to bother them. In fact if I understood the results presentation correctly, then the last 3 AAV contracts (“post period” and so this year) they never even bothered to announce.

So I remain convinced that something is about to drop. OK that is a bit like saying it will either rain or go dark, as OXB are well overdue news, but it’s very unusual for none of our senior staff to buy in their open period immediately following the results – when least year that was the best part of a million quid they spent (if memory serves me correctly).

No directors / senior staff / wives buying (or even filling their ISAs) leads me to believe that not only is something about to drop imminently, but that it’s also extremely significant for OXB.

I’m reassured to go out on a limb with this by the fact that both house brokers are also maintaining radio silence. Why would neither of those two release something noting OXB’s figures with a view and target price revision / reiteration – unless OXB had said to them “just hold fire for a few days”? It is after all the job of the house broker to sell the company to the market.

Imminently is a difficult timetable to quantify with OXB as it could be tomorrow morning and it might also be anytime this month. I think if it wasn’t expected this month with some reasonable amount of certainty then we would have seen director buys.

So the only broker I have seen update is Joe at HCW. He asked one question in the webcast which gave him the EPS figure he put out in his update, but much as I like Joe who has been a long term supporter of OXB for as long as I can remember, the bigger question for me is why haven’t Peel Hunt released anything on their £11.70 target – and I’ve forgotten what the latest JPM figure is. But silence?

Posted at 18/4/2023 09:52 by harry s truman
Post 4939 Mike, and you are correct. But on the other hand if you ran that company would you tell the reporter what you knew or what you wanted them to know?

We have been told very little about this. We don't even know if the option to reserve a bioreactor in OxBox and the assistance (by OXB) to help Serum build their UK footprint is the same thing. That could easily be two separate things with one being a contract manufacturing+ job and the other as a consultancy.

Lots of things we just don't know.

We do know that OXB continued to recruit all through last year and are still doing it. So we can guess from that alone that it's unlikely they are short of work.

We have a very good idea what the results will be on Thursday - and that is because Stuart said in his post-year end presentation that the full year results would be inline with previous guidance.

If OXB were able to time news then I'm sure we would have had some when we almost got back into the FT250 on the 1st of March.

So news will come when our customers are ready to sign and not before. That obviously includes Serum.

I'd remind you here (and this isn't hopes and prayers) that OXB hit £10 on the back of Novartis news, long before anybody here had heard of coronavirus. So just one big contract changes everything.

I would imagine that the Boston subsidiary is doing better than expected wrt to the burn of the cash which was put into the company. I say that because of the 4 additional contracts won within the first year, which - even if they are not hugely profitable - are still paying wage bills and such.

Back when OXB was basically TroVax then it was easy to keep tabs on what was going on. There is so much now, and so many possibilities that it's difficult to keep up. Hopefully Thursday will be a comprehensive update which notes a lot of progress.

Whilst that would be nice for us, it's important to remember that the world's news agencies are likely only to report the headline figures and the one they are almost certain to dwell on will be the 30m or so which OXB will have spent last year on exceptional costs.

That's more than covered by the huge mountain of cash which OXB hold, but it will still mean a reported loss whilst the underlying business is around breakeven on their day to day work.

There is always a chance of some news tomorrow before the big day, but most probably it will be the results on Thursday now with the figures which we have been told to expect.

Posted at 17/4/2023 03:50 by badger60
java script#370
That article is 8 months old FFS. OXB won't get a sniff of it.
Serum are building their own malaria vaccine facility in Ghana with a 200 Mio production dose capacity, so they certainly don't need the sub standard services of OXB.
Serum are 70% down on their 50 Mio investment in 18 months....paying 1478 PPS.
The vaccine was developed with the help of Oxford UNIVERSITY....which is not OXB....but being an OXB shareholder, you're obviously confusing the issue.
You can cut and paste Serum production info as much as you like, but none of it will benefit OXB......and most certainly in this case it won't.
Another wishful thinking bit of outdated OXB propaganda posted by a long suffering OXB shareholder...

Posted at 14/4/2023 00:57 by badger60
Thanks for your concern about my mental state and blood pressure Harry....much appreciated and perhaps OXB can develop the cure for both, given that they have plenty of "cutting edge spare capacity".
In the meantime, the reality is that OXB has zip to offer and is treading water on most fronts, with certain involvements, ie. the Homology financial burden sinking the ship.
Where you get this idea that Serum are likely to outsource their malaria Vax to OXB is strange given that they are building their own facility to do it....and you even quote figures as if they could well be attributable to OXB's future bottom line. Serum being 35 Mio quid down on a 50 Mio quid OXB investment in less than 2 years is not exactly ideal for getting their business, Harry.
The only valid observation from you is that OXB has plenty of spare capacity..... there's got to a reason for that....and I wonder what it is? Perhaps the current 440p OXB share price instead of the 1478p that Serum paid for their shares has something to do with it.

Posted at 30/3/2023 11:30 by harry s truman

I can't do anything about what OXB report, how the market reacts to it or what any long term grudge holders (and we all know the usual suspects) might think.

But the fact remains that OXB is doing ok.

Frank wouldn't have left a very cushy number to join a sinking ship.

JD has his part time chairmanship now with a much smaller viral vector company and that appears to be what he was looking for.

OXB have recruited constantly through the last year and just wouldn't do that if things were tight.

Ignoring the exceptional peak for coronavirus, OXB's earnings have climbed year on year and our CFO tells us that on operations business is fine.

We spent the AZ windfall (and some more) expanding into AAV and that market dwarfs LV, which of course is the less used / smaller market share vector which has still tripled our revenue over 5 years?

4 small external development contracts for the AAV arm already, which will only be single digit millions in size but it of course pays wages and overheads until the follow-up manufacturing comes in?

Why on earth OXB's adjusted share price is less now than when it was a much smaller company with lower earnings is an open question, but I'm sure some people made a lot of money out of the chart last year - and probably haven't finished yet.

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